Sean Smith thinks he will get between 8-10 million, on the open market

CK...what do you think about Antoine Cason? At first glance he seems roughly the same but might come cheaper?

 

No.. but then again I pretty sure there are no rules against the Fins adding other CB's to their roster is SS walks

 

Based on the Coaches Tape I watched of Cason he's a very solid "system" guy for a defense that makes its living off a "bend don't break" mentality. If you get the right coverage against him, you can dink and dunk all over him. That's because he's not a physically overwhelming and/or aggressive corner. But if you're going to dink and dunk him, you had better execute with fair precision, because he has the ball skills to take advantage of mistakes.

The thing I like is that he's not often going to give up the big play via a big screw-up in technique...which is different from a Sean Smith. Sean Smith has always had this maddening tendency to completely screw up his technique, turn the wrong way, get jammed up trying to close, etc. He has a lot of natural athletic ability which can bail him out of these problems but he gives up big plays via technique mistakes. Antoine Cason from what I've seen doesn't have that tendency. But on the other hand, you also don't get the feeling that he's got the speed necessary to trust him running deep down the field in man coverage, especially against big receivers. That's something that believe it or not you're more likely to trust Sean Smith with, and he'll excel...especially if allowed to get his hands all over a guy at the line of scrimmage.

So it's not really an easy characterization with Antoine Cason or with Sean Smith...as far as what kinds of corners they are. You'd say Sean Smith gives up the big play, but then you can trust Sean Smith deep down the field in man coverage so those seem contradictory. You'd say Antoine Cason doesn't give up the big play, but then I'm not entirely sure you can trust him deep down the field in man coverage with the big, strong and fast guys in the league that you might call #1's.

Antoine Cason is on the list. Not above Derek Cox, IMO...but Cox may be franchise tagged even if he and the Jags don't come to an agreement before free agency.

 

Well, from a team pov, is it possible they feel if Richard Marshall comes back 100% that he can replace SS?

I suspect they do, and that 3 millie difference is what can land us a pass rush specialist like Barnes or a RT like Schwarz (or whomever).

 

Plus considering Ireland's well known penchant for lowballing, why would anybody starting negotiations with Ireland put in a fair and reasonable offer at the first instance?

 

What matters is not how much he gets paid. What matters is whether he's getting the job done consistently in our defensive scheme. He's not. We need someone who can. Goodbye.

 

If Sean smith walks, boy would that be a black eye for the GM..two players that did'nt have the right makeup..two corners, 1st and 3rd, gone before the age of 25.. Fu&$ an a man.

 

Fine with me as long as it's not Miami. Adios Sean, not going to miss you one bit. If Coyle with his background and record of successful CB development can't motivate this kid, he needs to call Vontae's Grandma and find a new home. If SS couldn't perform any better in last year being a pre-FA year, what the heck would we expect from him with no motivation, being (over)paid such a ridiculous contract?

 

I don't see how you can say that. Getting a solid starter who isn't on the team after their rookie contract isn't a failed pick where Davis or Smith got picked. It's at worst average, and that doesn't really take the pick you got for Davis into consideration.

 

Getting four years of pretty good service from a 1st and a 3rd, having them depart, getting a 2nd in return is average expectations for a GM?

 

I'm not sure. I mean wouldn't you want at least one of those picks to be a starter four years later?

 

This inspired me to take a quick glance through some past drafts in the NFL.

First round of the 2008 draft, 9 players are either not playing in the league or are playing for a team that did not draft them. LB Rivers (9th) was shipped out for a 5th. CB Rodgers-Cromartie (16) was trade along with a 2nd for Kolb (I think he's leaving this FA again). CB Talib (20) for a 4th (another guy that seems to be leaving). DE Jackson (28) for a 5th. DE Balmer (29) for a 6th. I really don't follow FAs that much, but I counted an additional 5 that I've definitely heard are expected to leave via FA this year (more than likely missing some): Long (1), Dorsey (5), Mendenhall (23), Cason (27), Keller (30). That's 50% of that class no longer playing for who drafted them with the highest compensation a 4th. The third round is of course much worse with: 12 players no longer in the league. An additional 11 play for new teams (the only trade was Greco for an undisclosed draft pick). 72%.

Of course, only 4 first round picks from 2009 have left their team so far. Trades: T Smith (2) for T Wayne Hunter, LB Curry (4) for a 7th, CB Davis (25) for a 2nd. In the third round we have 8 guys out of the league. 6 more for new teams. I imagine this class with be similarly ransacked after FA.

To be clear, I'm not exactly opposing your stance and just was curious and am posting my finders. But it does seem based on 2008 that these sort of situations aren't uncommon at all. Of course, one should have looked at 2007, etc.

As a small side note, at least were not losing 3rd rounder Wallace with no compensation this year.

 

I'm willing to bet its baseline. It's why I think with the nfl you have to create a system to put players in a position to win, and not depend on so called "playmakers"

 

I would think so, but I'd like to hear DPates response..

 

Thanks for that, gives me some perspective, still unsure, my feelings are that these two players had some red flags and some weakness in their game, some signs that maybe should of been taken more seriously..

 

That's interesting as well Luck, in the draft room I'm having a discussion with CK about Robert Woods and his skillset, what he's saying about Woods skillset I don't necessariliy disagree with, and that is, that Woods doesn't have enough talent to be a playmaker at the next level, that ability in space to make people miss and gain yac is in question, my take is that with his precise route running and subtle athleticism it would be a nice fit for our system, some have him valued in the third, some even lower, I see his talent valued as a 2 nd rounder..

I'll like to revisit after the combine, see what kind of speed and athleticism were dealing with.

 

i think cason would be a nice pick up if smith leaves ,think you could get him for around $4m-5m a year , half price compared too smith and no drop off in play

i am still intrigued with the marshall,patterson $4.5m shoot out ,surely one goes or at least move marshall to safety

 

No, it's not an average expectation from fans, but it's pretty much the reality.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NFL_Draft

2007 is the most recent draft with 100% expiration of rookie contracts(I believe). I'll talk about the first round, but it mostly applies to the second which is more scattershot Take a look at the retention rate:

Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis, Lawrence Timmons, Leon Hall, Michael Griffin, Jon Beason, and Joe Staley are on their second contracts for their rookie team, which is roughly 1/3rd of the draft. I would say this is a pretty typical outcome. I'd also mention that Levi Brown sucks and Dwayne Bowe and Anthony Spencer are possibilities.

Of that list, I'd also say that only five(Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, and Darrelle Revis) are in actuality worth a 1st round pick as professionals. Meaning if you put those guys up for trade, you could reasonably expect to ask for a 1st round pick in return for them.

Can you justify a system of grading draft outcomes that has 1/3rd or less of the picks as successful? Can average be a failure?

 

This is one of the funniest things I have seen all weekend.

Sure, he's a great player. When he's on the bench, and not in 3rd and long situations. That Indy game has me hating on this kid.

 

Sean Smith was a 2nd round pick.

 

You should hate the defensive line for that game... they were the ones who couldn't contain or tackle Luck which allowed him to stretch out plays... resulting in first downs.

 

It's worth mentioning that while its natural to think of a 2nd rounder as a "2nd rounder", every draft is different in terms of the number/quality/position of the top prospects. Should a guy taken #33 be judged the same as #60? In the pursuit of simplifying things it's easy to dumb it down to the point where you lose perspective.

IMO it's more useful to judge picks based on who was realistically available, the ten or so picks prior to and immediately after the selection, or the other players available at their given position, as opposed to what happened a year or five earlier.

Dthomas is viewed as a poor pick but Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure, Alex Green, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley and Demarco Murray have all struggled to produce and or stay healthy. Sometimes the draft lines up with a teams needs and sometimes it does just the opposite. There are a ton of considerations to make so I take the black and white "good pick-bad pick" analysis with a big grain of salt.

 

When you try and equate what Daniel Thomas has done since entering the league to what Stevan Ridley and Demarco Murray have done, you detract heavily from whatever point you're trying to make.

 

Sure, it changes and perception should change relative to round, but there's an wildly over-inflated view of what the actual results from a draft are. I don't think the second round really differs all that much.

You can judge a draft looking at the players available at a pick, but you've got to couch it in understanding the benefit of hindsight too. Jake Long's injury history shouldn't really be something you're holding against the pick because in retrospect it wasn't something that could reasonaby be known.

I don't think you can appropriately judge vs. others at the same position because there are system-variations, and sometimes the absolute correct outcome is not to pick a certain position. It doesn't lessen the impact if you got a ****ty runningback in a bad year for runningbacks, the correct outcome would have been not to pick one and filled the need some other way.

 

Just pay the man 7.5M/yr for 4 years and get it over with.

 

Looks we will be drafting a CB with our first pick.


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Judging by that comment I doubt you grasp the point I was trying to make. I'd be happy to clarify it for you if need be.

 

Sean Smith is obviously crazy.

 

He's the model of inconsistency. My opinion of him is.....ehhh.

 

I'm wondering how many people look at stats and PFF rankings vs actually watching plays, deciphering coverages and deciding whether Sean did his job or not.

 

I know you're not trying to look at stats right now..... at least not w/o putting a hand over one eye and making a squinty face, you mismanager of alcohol you.

 

I wonder If you actually do any of that.

 

smh.....

 

I would take Milliner with our #1.

 

Lol. The all 22 tape doesn't lie.

 

Shut your trap putz! I can't make a run at Finfangirl with you blabbering about my weakness for Cognac and strippers.

 

you, her, Chip N Dales? What's not for her to love? Switch to beer and you should be painting each other's nails in no time.

 

Just out of curiosity, how does PFF come up with their stats if they aren't doing all of the above? Pull a number out of a hat?

 

Not trying to send you off the deep end here but Smith was a 2nd round pick.

 

He's playing the old haggle psychology pay-up trick. :P