PICK NO. 12 XAVIER RHODES CB FLORIDA ST. The Dolphins want to improve their defense. This might be a bit high for Rhodes (6-1 1/4, 210), but with Milliner gone, he's the best cornerback available. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/mock-drafts/gil-brandt/165254
Among the CBs, I do like Rhodes, but I'd prefer to take Jarvis Jones if he fell to #12 (which I think is very possible).
Jarvis Jones kind of confuses me- he looks kind of like a free lancer to me, rather unconventional style. Hard to put my finger on it, but in the sense that he plays more like an athlete in a Kiki Mingo kind of way. That's not necessarily bad, but I'm trying to figure it out. He strikes me as very efficient in his movement and he seems to have some good base strength in him but how will he hold up as a 4/3 OLB playing in space? Look at 1:17 below in the 1st clip- instead of traditionally engaging the OL he hits him, bounces of of him, spins and makes the tackle. I can't figure out if that's football genius or just some weird s***. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeEtITadAiE My question is, how is his game and that kind of style going to translate to the pros? How fast is he? At 6-2, 245 that's good size, but he looks more efficiently mobile to me than fast- it kind of rubs me the wrong way that he chose not to work out at the combine. The flip side is that there's a whole lot to like. I don't know about his speed per se, but he does play with explosion. He plays heavy, he can hang with the big boys at the LOS. Here at 7:26 the mongo UF Guard #67 pulls to his right and unleashes on Jones on the left edge, but who's standing over the RB at the end of the play and who bites the dust? Jones took the hit and donminated. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqor83DnzMg 8:45 in that clip- Jones against Xavier Nixon- Nixon stonewalls Jones, who just stops which seems kind of odd, then after a moment jets around Nixon like he's standing still. I'm trying to figure out if that's a good play by Jones or some very good pass pro form Nixon immediately followed by a lapse of concentration. Meanwhile, Ogletree is snaking in there, using his athleticism to track the QB up the gut, great athlete. In short, I'm trying to figure out how Jarvis Jones' unconventional game will translate to the pros. I'm also thinking that if he ran at the combine he could have easily been north of 4.80, which would not have looked good and effected his draft stock. This unconventional stuff that he does in college to great success, that unique style of his- well, it was good for 13 tackles and 3 sacks in that Florida game in the clip above. That's big time. How it plays in the pros- could be another story, I don't know. ps at 9:20 below her'es a play that might explain a bit as to why Cornelious Washington produced so little relative to his physical tools: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqor83DnzMg That's not really one for the highlight reel there, Cornelious. Not showing much in terms of instincts. Then you have Jones 10 seconds later at 9:30 in that clip just abusing Xavier Nixon on an inside rush. Jones is a very, very intriguing player, a great pass rusher and a playmaker- there's a whole lot to like there. Again, I'm curious as to his straight line speed, what he would have run in the 40 at the combine and if he ducked out on running for a reason, to protect his draft status. I also wonder what happens if he takes that style of play to the NFL and if he might get neutralized playing that way.
He just makes big plays, doesn't he? Love Jones. In my wildest dreams, though, I can't imagine Ireland taking a guy to essentially replace Olivier Vernon, whom they seem to have a ton of (misplaced) faith in... and Odrick, who is remaining at DE, as it seems. Nope. I think it's CB or OL, Raf.
I think he's a play maker. I don't buy all that Ireland will or won't do something talk. IMO the telling factor will be the stenosis and what our doctors say about it.
The more I hear people who's opinions I trust on this board talk up Rhodes, the more I'm getting on board with that pick. Corner is certainly a need and Banks probably took himself out of the equation with his 40 time. I don't see any way Floyd and Jones go 25 and 26 though. Floyd's stock seems to be on fire right now and if Jones gets medical clearance he'll go much, much higher and if he doesn't he won't be a 1st round pick. I agree with Raf that Jones would be my choice if he were there at 12 and cleared medically. He'd probably start off as a situational pass rusher and end up as a guy you can move around. If his ultimate spot is OLB that's fine with me. I just think that if you have the chance to get a legitimate blue chip talent like that you can't pass on it.
Real problem is we need a strongside DE who can get after the Qb, a lot of these guys are weakside types of players and we already have Wake for that job. Vernon is to light for that job full time, and he won't push Wake out of a job, meaning imo, he is destined for Lb.
IMO, the way this draft class is shaping up, we are mostly out of position to fill our holes at the #1 pick, let alone upgrade the roster. This is one area where our failure to develop lower rd talent is haunting us, for example if CC9 and Nolan Carrol had developed we would not need to spend yet more high picks to just fill holes, let alone upgrade.
Huh? They have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds, but they're not in position to upgrade the roster? And just because Nolan Carrol (a 5th round pick) hasn't become a starting caliber corner, doesn't mean the Dolphins haven't developed lower round talent. Bess went undrafted, Reshad Jones went in the 5th and looks like one of the best young safeties in the NFL. Chris Clemmons went in the 5th and is a solid starting safety. Brian Hartline was a 4th round pick and is coming off of a 1000 yard season. I would say the Dolphins have a better track record with late round picks over the past few years than many other teams. Most teams don't get several starting caliber players or better from late round picks. And that's not even counting Lamar Miller, Keeston Randall, and Rishard Matthews from last years draft who all showed some promise.
I notice Gil Brandt previously had Patterson not going in the 1st round and now he has him going 16 overall. Rob Rang just updated his top 64 post Combine and has Patterson #7 overall on his big board.
Indeed "huh" You do realize we have 9 starters as FA this offseason? You also realize every rookie you start you can expect to lose 1 game for? This is one of the reasons why I neither worship the draft and also think we are in fact rebuilding. Clemons and Bline are FA's, Miller and Matthews did not play very often and Randall will be lucky to be on the roster as he went ghost as the season rolled along, on a 4-3 team that is bad juj-ju for him. Another point is, what successful teams do is find young players who can start quickly, in Miami by the time they get any good, gosh, they are up for FA. We needed the 2012 Bline in 2010 for example.
^^ excellent post. OMG we found Bess in UDFA. I wish we cut him 5 years ago. In 4 years hardly anything on this team is fixed, save for Wake, Soliai. And the Reshad Jones "find"? I remember during that draft people screaming on forums for Jones in the 2nd, and 3rd round, and losing patience through the 4th round wondering wtf was going on and what acorn we were going to get instead of Jones. Jones is the perfect example of poor evluation and outlook on players from this FO. Nothing is fixed, I doubt much will be fixed if Ireland makes decisions.
Maybe I cant count that high but as far as I can tell the Fins have 7 starters that are FA's (Hartron, Long, Fasano, Bush, Starks, Smith and Clemons). There is no way all those guys walk AND there is no way some of those guys are not replaced via FA. The RB position already has been upgraded with Miller over Bush. I know you dont like the thought of that but it is VERY clear that is the direction the Fins are going AND they are comfortable with that. So when you take into account that at least two of our FA's are going to be resigned and at least two FA's from other teams are going to be signed (ruff estimate on my part) you are really talking about two or three rookie starters. I have to think that the Fins can draft three starters this year. That would put that team on a path to be 13-3 and playoff bound!
Reshad Jones pick was a miracle pick. This FO has a track record of overvaluing acorns and undervaluing playmakers. A troubling track record. A fact that 32 teams pass on a player like Jones or Kaepernick does no lessen the stupidity of this FO and FOs around the league. It amplifies it.
First of all, your comment made no mention of improving the Dolphins in 2013, you said they weren't in position to improve their team. Putting that aside, the Dolphins don't have 9 starters that are FAs, they have 7 as mroz said. And let's look at that 7. Starks and Clemmons are pretty good bets to be back, same with Fasano and Hartline. Smith is up in the air and Bush is probably gone, but personally I think Lamar Miller could be much more productive. Even if it's not Miller, it isn't hard to replace a 900 yard back. Also who says you need to start a bunch of rookies? The Dolphins have plenty of cap room to add veterans. And you don't need to start rookies for them to improve your team. Aldon Smith didn't start for the 49ers as a rookie, but clearly made them better. You don't even need to use a budding superstar as an example though. A guy like Bernard Pierce didn't start for the Ravens, yet he made them better. The Dolphins have a big opportunity to improve their team via the draft and if they don't it will be a big disappointment. What does it matter if Clemmons and Hartline are FAs? The comment was made about a failure to develop talent in the later rounds, and those guys are proof to the contrary. I made a point to say my examples didn't include any of the guys from this past draft class like Randall although I think him "disappearing" had more to do with McDaniel getting healthy, but again that is irrelevant. There are plenty of other examples. The notion of expecting lots of late round picks to contribute right away is far fetched. Does it happen? Yes. Does it happen a lot? No. And I don't understand how in the first part of your post you can argue that expecting draft picks to immediately pay off doesn't happen, but then criticize the Dolphins for not having LATE ROUND PICKS contribute early. That makes no sense.
McDaniel and Garner don't count? Smith also was a luxury pick as they had Brooks and Smith, we are not really in position to take such a player. I'd like to think we are, with that many FA's though, if we don't land say Smith, Hartline, and Long, guess who that #1 pick will be slotted on? When you wade through 3 yrs of mediocrity to reach the 4th yr of good productivity you have the worst of both worlds, you've paid to train them, you've spent snaps on their development, and now you either pay for their one good yr, or you lose them. This is a reality in the Cap World, you need your later rd guys to play well, and quickly, to balance the generally overpriced FA's you sign. More importantly it does not happen in Miami, think of it this way, even if the last 4 yrs were viewed as training for those FA's, we went what...20-29 for those years, now we've basically wasted their cheap years and either have to pay them well, or start over at -0-. If you sign a 12 million per yr Mike Wallace, guess who your starting RT and SS is likely to be?
He was a player I liked in the 08 draft, but really he was a poor tackle for most of his career until now.
No. You said starters. Those 2 are not starters. They may have started a game here or there as injury fill-ins, but that is not the same thing. If you count Garner as a starting tackle you can't count Jake Long. Same for McDaniel and Starks. First of all Smith is an end, not a linebacker on that team. Secondly, we don't know whether the Dolphins will have the luxury of taking the BPA regardless of position. We won't know that until after FA. If they lose Smith, Hartline, and Long and replace them with Cox, Jennings, and Albert (or players like those), we won't be forced to spend a pick on those positions. But even if there is a hole the value at 12 at all 3 of those positions is fine where the rookie can produce early. That's just not a realistic expectation. The Dolphins have done well with later round picks. Better than most. Where does it happen? Where do lots of late round picks provide immediate impact at a level higher than some of these guys?
Even if they don't, I still think Rhodes is the favourite. They'll keep Martin at LT and draft someone later, or via FA, to cover RT or RG.
I've seen some mock drafts with 5 OL going ahead of our pick 12. There is a better chance of Patterson being on the board than any of the 3 premier LTs, and he's been mocked 6th, 8th, and 9th recently.
If you look on NFL.com's set of mock drafts, as I said in the article...Pioli, Casserly, Tannenbaum and Jeremiah all have Patterson going ahead of us. But you're right even so it's probably more likely for Patterson to be available at 12 than any of the three offensive tackles.
Here are guys I'm pretty sure will end up taken ahead of us: OT Lane Johnson OT Eric Fisher OT Luke Joeckel DT Sharrif Floyd DT Star Lotulelei DE Bjoern Werner DE Ezekiel Ansah CB Dee Milliner What would be a big boost for us would be if teams desperate for QBs like the Cardinals and Bills both go with QBs up top in Geno Smith and Matt Barkley. That would be huge. But even so, Patterson could still be that final 11th man that goes before we pick. He or Jarvis Jones. Not that it matters, Jeff Ireland won't take Patterson at 12, IMO.
Ansah and Star are the only two I don't 100% expect to go before our pick, but I do believe they will be gone.
I agree and I also think Geno Smith is likely to go before us. Not definite but likely in my opinion. I think the fact that teams like the Raiders are trying to make themselves seem interested to me tells me that other teams higher in the draft are considering him and they're trying to trade down. The Titans line is a mess and if all 3 tackles are gone by their pick I see them taking Warmack. I pray the Bills take Barkley. I think Miami ends up choosing between Rhodes, Cooper, Jones or trading back and then considering Carradine, Eiffert and Allen. Assuming these are the choices I'd prefer a trade down.
Chiefs - Absolutely Eagles - With Peters returning this would be a RT pick and the Eagles badly need DE and NT pieces for a 3-4 front. No way they pass on guys like Floyd, Richardson, Ansah, Star to take a RT that high IMO. Lions - If Avril leaves, the priority is probably DE/rush LB. CB is a possibility if Houston is not resigned. Even WR could be in play if they want to give the offense an option outside of Calvin Johnson. OT is not the likeliest pick for the Lions. Possible, but unlikely. Cardinals - Really depends on their evaluations of their greatest position of need: Quarterback. I think the QB desperation ultimately trumps everything and they select a QB. But there is a good chance of an OT here, it's true. Chargers - They need OT help, but there are competing needs. OG is a need and if Warmack is on the board they may take the higher rated player in Warmack. If Jammer or Cason are not re-signed then CB is a big need. A rush LB like Mingo or Jones is a possibility for San Diego too. Even WR could be the pick, since they can't rely solely on Danario Alexander (especially with his injury history). I only see the Chiefs as a slam-dunk to take an OT. Then two teams in the Cards and Chargers who may or may not go with and OT. I'd say there's a decent chance one of the top three OTs makes it to our pick.
LT is harder to find than a corner. SD is a slam dunk to take one IMO. There is also a good chance of a team trading into the top 10 to ensure getting one of the 3 LTs. Whether Zona takes one depends on what they do with Kolb. They get him to redo his deal and keep him then IMO you can write it down in ink right now that they take one. If they don't keep Kolb then I think they take Barkley and get a tackle in the 2nd.
