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Draft Winds I: Cordarrelle Patterson

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by ckparrothead, Feb 28, 2013.

  1. Killer Bees

    Killer Bees Bringin' the Ruckus

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    Great Job CK. I appreciate the hard work, keep it up. Loved the comment about Clowney btw (all world everything) :lol:
     
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  2. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    That's not fair. You didn't include Henne and Pat White.
     
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  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Henne..just never quite turned the corner, he's a pretty good Qb, just never has really took that next step.

    A couple games of great play, then what, 4 int's vs the patriots?

    Thing with White, from my pov, is they could not have known he had no heart, there was nothing in his college career that suggested he just did not want to play football for a living.
     
  4. eltos_lightfoot

    eltos_lightfoot Well-Known Member

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    Great write-up, as always, CK!
     
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  5. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    Is this true???
     
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    No.
     
  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't have the spreadsheet on me. Couldn't do as many as I wanted to.

    Dez Bryant versus Cordarrelle Patterson is a tough question.

    Bryant was super productive, a proven 50/50 ball catcher, big time red zone threat, with fantastic open field running skills. But he had demonstrable anger issues, demonstrable "fvck up" issues (some of which I've outlined that Patterson shares) and when you boiled it down he was more of a 4.50 kind of guy speed-wise.

    Patterson had one year of production, is not a PROVEN 50/50 ball catcher (shows signs of it), is more of a run-after-catch touchdown threat than a pure red zone threat (although he showed promise in that regard against Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia and Missouri). He doesn't have any demonstrable anger issues and his "fvck up" factor isn't nearly as bad. And from a pure speed standpoint he's Mike Wallace/Chris Rainey/Tavon Austin/Stephen Hill...at 6'2" and 216 lbs.

    I'd say overall...he's a better prospect than Dez.
     
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  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    A point that I have made in the past is that when you've got a guy that stands out as a real 1st tier wide receiver and then kind of a whole group of 2nd tier guys...judging by history, you might be better off going with that 1st tier guy, the guy that kind of separates from the pack a little bit.

    Statistically speaking, that group of players that all look fantastic aren't all going to work out. You could have a situation like in 2008 when you had 10 receivers all go in the 2nd round. None of them stood out from one another. None was above the pack. You know how many of those guys ended up being worth anything? Just two...Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson. The others were Donnie Avery, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, Jerome Simpson, James Hardy, Eddie Royal, Limas Sweed and Dexter Jackson.

    To me back in 2010, Dez Bryant, Mike Williams and Demaryius Thomas really stood out from the group of wide receivers from a talent perspective. They were the guys I had 1st round grades on from a talent perspective. Williams obviously had character issues that needed to be considered and ultimately dropped him on my board, but I considered him the 2nd best talent in that Draft at that position. After that you kind of had a group of guys. If you were lucky, when you participated in that group you ended up taking Eric Decker or Golden Tate. If you were not so lucky, you took Rejus Benn, Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordan Shipley, Andre Roberts, Armanti Edwards or Taylor Price. Very hit or miss.

    Back in 2007 there was no argument about Calvin Johnson. He was head and shoulders above everyone else. The next group though, were kind of jumbled together. I liked Ted Ginn, I'm man enough to admit that mistake. But guys like Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Craig Davis, Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett, Anthony Gonzalez and Sidney Rice were not considered far off that mark. If you were lucky you took Bowe or Rice...or to some degree Smith. If you weren't, you took Ginn, Meachem, Davis, Jarrett or Gonzalez.

    Very similar FOR ME back in 2006. I say for me because even though Chad Jackson was very commonly considered right up there with Santonio Holmes, I didn't think he was even close. I thought the top tier consisted of one man, Holmes. From there, again, you had a cluster. If you were lucky, you took Greg Jennings from that cluster. Or Devin Hester though I didn't really consider him part of that cluster because I had him as special teams only. If you were not so lucky, you took Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Travis Wilson, Derek Hagan, Willie Reid, Brandon Williams or Maurice Stovall.

    Back in 2011, I don't think there's any question A.J. Green and Julio Jones together constituted their own tier. Probably about 12 months prior to that draft I thought Jon Baldwin easily in that tier but by draft day I knew that was not the case. With respect to that next tier, if you were lucky you took Torrey Smith or Randall Cobb. So far, it looks like if you were unlucky you took Jon Baldwin, Titus Young, Greg Little, Austin Pettis, Leonard Hankerson or Jerrel Jernigan.

    The one year that really seems to defy this...is 2009. I think there wasn't any question out in public that Michael Crabtree stood alone that year as a top tier. And he has turned out somewhat deserving of that praise from a talent and production standpoint. Especially this year. They don't win the Super Bowl without him being ridiculous. For me Hakeem Nicks was also in that tier though. I didn't think anyone else aside from Crabtree was on his level, and I wanted to put him in the same tier as Crabtree. But there was a cluster after that. Yet, Maclin, Harvin and Britt have all been pretty good though obviously two of them very troubled character wise. I never really considered Robiskie and Massaquoi to be part of the real 2nd tier with them. That's an example of a "next best" group that actually is pretty talented.

    So anyway back to the original point...when a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson pretty much stands out head and shoulders above the kind of cluster we're seeing with the likes of Stedman Bailey, Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton, Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins and Terrance Williams....you know what, you're better off plumping for the top tier guy...because much as I like most of those players in that next tier, the chances are bad that MOST of them are going to pan out. In fact the chances are good that maybe 3 of the 9 turn out to be any good. Bless you if you took one of those 3...and god help you if you took one of the other 6.
     
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  9. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

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    Is a write up coming for Tavon Austin? Or any other players in mind to single out for draft winds?
     
  10. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    He's not making it to 12 guys. Too talented. He's really raw but he has the sort of speed and athleticism teams drool over. And we are starved at WR. Do you see the Bills letting him go by? I see them snaring him and putting him on the field with Cj Spiller and driving everyone crazy.
     
  11. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    Honestly CK it seems like you either take Patterson OR you almost have to grab two of the other guys and hope. I really like Markus Wheaton however I REALLY want Patterson. However I've watched Ireland. When it comes to receivers he's as cheap as Jeffrey Loria. The three best receivers on our team are Hartline, a 4th round pick, Bess an undrafted free agent and Reggie Bush a free agent running back who happens to be a better receiver than most of the true receivers on our team. When it comes to receivers Ireland is like a teenager afraid of his first time. I would love for Ireland to man up and take a gamble on Patterson. I am quite sure that I will be disappointed.
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think that's right. If you don't go with one of the top tier guys (assuming there's more than one, in this case I don't believe there is) that stand above the pack...then you really have to take two if you want to be relatively assured you got someone worth while.
     
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