PFT - Vikings Prepared to give Wallace 13 Million per year

The problem is, you can't just eliminate the contract and act like he's just one of the guys. As CK has said, let Miami lose a game 23-17 where Wallace only has 5 targets and see what happens. There is going to be immense pressure to justify that contract, and being just an outside stretch guy isn't enough.

As far as the play action and timing aspects, let's just say that Joe Philbin's history as an offensive coordinator has come with a team that did not use a lot of play action and was mostly timing oriented with the passing game.

 

2012 Mike Wallace is not worth more than $8M. He was 58th in YPT, 58th in catch-rate, 43rd in yards per reception. He wasn't bad, but he sure as hell didn't play like a $10M WR.

 

I am positive that he cannot run a complete route tree with any consistency, and I'm not alone on this. I've seen him round off sharp breaking patterns and not run them to the proper depth. His numbers declined drastically in the Steelers's new offense. Since game 3 of 2011, Wallace has only averaged 8 yards per pass target, well below average. Asking him to do more and getting diminishing results is not what $80 million is for is it?

The actually effect of "taking the top off the defense" is an overrated effect. Unless you can show me quantify that effect into a number, I don't even take it into consideration.

 

DJ posted videos showing everyone of Wallace's catches just last season, and many many of them were not on outside routes, or vertical routes, or vertical outside routes. So there is visual evidence to the contrary posted right here on this forum.

 

But thats not answering my question really. He has been a very good outside stretch receiver in Pitt, because, thats how Pitt chose to run its offense, and it worked for them. Because that is the role he played in Pitt, does not mean that he CANT fit into our offense here. I havent seen anywhere that it said Wallace cant run other routes

 

This forum is unreal. People here arguing emphatically about the skills or lack thereof of a WR who isn't even on this team yet, and has not played in this team's offense a single down.

How about the fact that if he does come, than the Head Coach, who is by all evidence, anal about route running, had to give the OK on this receiver who you all are so adamant to argue about. That in itself should be an argument end-er. If Philbin is ok with giving 10+ M to Wallace, then Philbin must be satisfied with his route running ability.

My disclaimer is, Wallace was not my first choice for FA, and i would not give him as much money as it is being reported. That being said though, if Philbin is ok, i trust he sees enough in Wallace that he can work with.

 

If Percy Harvin's lack of faith in Christian Ponder was his final breaking point, then why would Wallace jump into that situation, and in the cold to boot? QB should matter in this situation, and Tannehill certainly has the bigger arm capable of better utilizing Mike's speed.

 

The opinion that Wallace isn't a good route-runner is by no means some type of outlandish argument. Its pretty widely held. You're certainly free to disagree, but the debate shouldn't be mischaracterized here.

 

Targeting Mike Wallace 5 times in a game where you score only 17 points is silly even if he's making just one dollar a year. That has nothing to do with contract value.

 

One could argue its the GM's job to get round pegs to fit into the round hole. You get the players that fit the coaches system.

One way or the other we will find out what Philbin thinks much like we did with Matt Flynn.

 

I never said i disagreed. However if he does come, the coaching staff disagrees to an extend. Again, Jennings is available. If they really wanted a precise route runners, who might very well be cheaper, they need only sign Jennings.

That does not appear to be the case, and that can only mean Philbin sees enough in Wallace to ok passing on the better route runner in Jennings. Just IMO.

 

Here's you a thread from a Steeler's forum discussing his routes:

http://www.steelersuniverse.com/forums/showthread.php/16092-Mike-Wallace-Route-Running

Here's another link discussing his route running:

http://blogs.thescore.com/nfl/2012/02/23/the-tape-never-lies-evaluating-rfa-mike-wallace/

Here's another:

http://blogs.thescore.com/nfl/2012/02/23/the-tape-never-lies-evaluating-rfa-mike-wallace/

It is not even debatable. Mike Wallace is not a good route runner.

See, when people see him catch an intermediate route, they automatically think that he can run those routes consistently. They don't look at the actual route itself. He may catch the route, but it may have been a designed 10 yard square in that was run at 13 yards and rounded off, and in a timing based offense, that is an incompletion or an interception.

 

The organization is coming out with new jerseys, they are trying to get votes for $200M in taxpayer money. There is a lot more to it than Joe Philbin's opinion.

 

We've already had reports that the football side is not tailoring its free agent and draft decisions to help the business side win a vote on public funding. Ireland apparently genuinely wants Mike Wallace because he wants that skill set on this roster.

 

Or it means Philbin's input on the decision is not being taken into account.

 

Theres not going to be a drastic change to the system. What Mike Wallace does is run vertical routes and take the top off a defense. But that is just at tactic, its not a scheme or a tactical plan. Its something you do against certain schemes, not something you can do every play, or even against every team. Telling Mike Wallace to do what he does best isn't something you can base your offense around.

 

And there is the likely reasoning behind the Wallace pursuit.

 

Right, I don't believe what guys like Armando write.

 

You were also positive that Peyton Manning would never be healthy or able to play again and that there was a 1% chance he would even suit up last season.

Point being, we can't be positive about anything when it comes to these players since we don't have all the information. You may end up being 100% right about Mike Wallace, but it's undetermined at this time because you simply have no idea what the plan is, or what Philbin/Ireland are seeing on tape to justify their interest.

 

It depends on how much they end up paying him.

 

If signing a big name WR is being done thinking of the reasons you mentioned, then signing Jennings would have a very similar impact as signing Wallace. They are both popular.

 

Not terribly mercenary, are we?

 

Do you really believe that?

 

I'm hearing somewhere around $80 million over 6 years.

 

I really don't expect Minnesota to go after Wallace. Joe Rose has been saying Wallace is currently in Miami and I fully expect this to happen. Is it a good or bad deal. Only time will tell. However, there is more to do to make this offense effective. The offensive line is a concern to me right now. Forget about playmakers for a minute. This offensive line is not as set as you would want to believe. Long leaves, and you play another year with Jerry and Incognito and I am not sure that is a good thing. Joe Philbin has to know this, so I hope some of the surprises today involve OL. If not now, then the draft.

 

Based on Joe Philbin's history of two things:

1. No receiver is considered the #1 target in his offense.
2. He wants precise routes from his receivers.

When you combine these two things, you don't give a receiver $13 million a season, and you also don't bring in a guy whose best routes are go routes and deep bend routes that does not run the other routes in the tree with any precision.

 

It is absolutely difficult for me to believe those figures. I think it will likely be more in the 12 million dollar range. I believe Miami is the primary bidder and would only bid against themselves.

 

I think an honest discussion of Mike Wallace making $13 million a year needs to address the issues of expectations and diminishing returns.

I put together a "peer" group that included Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson and Hakeem Nicks. From a financial standpoint, the first 7 of those guys are no-brainers as they are very literally his financial peers in terms of money being made. The final guy Hakeem Nicks is from the same draft class as Wallace and I think he's going to break the bank just as much.

I think naturally the more times in a game you go to a guy the less he's going to average in terms of yards per attempt. Therefore it's unsurprising to see a -8% correlation between the two stats in the peer group. But with Mike Wallace you have a much higher negative correlation at -26%. The more he gets the ball, the worse he does. His yards per attempt goes from 11.95 in games where he was thrown the ball 5 times or less, to 9.25 in games where he's thrown the ball 6 to 10 times, to 7.96 in games where he's thrown the ball 11+ times. The peer group actually goes from 9.16 on games where they get thrown the ball up to 5 times to 9.18 on games where they're thrown to 6 to 10 times. Then they tail off to 8.53 on games where they're thrown to 11+ times.

The thing that worries me here is that nearly half (31 of 67, 46%) of Mike Wallace's games fit into that category where he was thrown the football 5 times or less in the game. And hell if you just bump the threshold up 1 tick to 6 attempts or fewer, that covers nearly 2/3rds of his games (41 of 67, 61%). With the peer group, only 20% of their games fall into the category of being thrown the football 5 times or less (and that only jumps to 28% if you bump the threshold up to 6 attempts or less).

The answer for everyone seems to be that's OK because we can just use Mike Wallace the same way he was used in Pittsburgh. We'll not use him like a real #1, we'll just throw him the ball sparingly and deep at the right moments. I just don't see that working, once you pay him $13 million a year. You have to imagine how it's going to be if the Dolphins sit there and lose a football game 21-17 and they only threw the football at Mike Wallace maybe 5 times in the game. You know, statistically speaking if 3 of those throws were deep balls, between Ryan Tannehill missing the throw (which happens to every QB) and Mike Wallace dropping it (which happens to every receiver), only 1 of those 3 will be complete. That's just reality for you. The average catch from among that peer group will gain you about 36 yards with a 1 in 3 chance that it ends up a touchdown.

So you come out of a game with the stat line for your $13 million a year wide receiver that looks like 3 catches for 61 yards. And that would be about half of his games. Do you really see that happening? I don't. I think if he's a $13 million a year guy he's going to be targeted a lot. There's going to be pressure to target him a bunch.

 

No, Wallace is much more popular. I'd guess that if you put a poll on FH, you would get 75% of the people there wanting Wallace over Jennings.

 

Casserly said on NFL Network this morning that Wallace had improved his route running. I guess he watches film. I think it is too late to argue about the inevitable. What I don't want to happen is for the Dolphins to lose focus on OL, CB, and TE. Some on this board have stated there might be a connection to Lewis at cb. The cb and ol situation is not good right now. Long leaves and that opens a hole, and if Smith leaves you need two corners (starters). The draft will likely mean those needs are addressed, but that puts rookies immediately under the gun. I want to see at least two corners signed, at least one tight end, and at least one or two offensive linemen. What puzzles me is the fact this team may continue with Incognito and Jerry when they are not zone blocking dudes.

 

Again, Ireland could achieve the same popularity effect and game impact by signing Jennings to a potentially cheaper deal, and also give his head coach exactly the type of player he values.

However, you choose to believe Ireland is completely ignoring his head coach and going for a player you feel Philbin would not like at all, when he actually has another impactful option available? I'm sorry, i just don't believe that.

 

And maybe the coaches and GM envision getting him the ball a variety of way (sweeps, WR screens, slants, etc). There's certainly no reason to think he won't be targeted as much as Hartline was last year (~130 times), and he's never been targeted that much. Though last year was close (he had 119), and only 4 of last year's games (25% obviously) had him getting targeted 5 times or less.


Of course last year was arguably his least productive season, so that opens up a another whole issue.

 

I did not say Jennings would have the same popular impact. He would have less, but not much less. People just want a big name WR, Jennings fits thats. Perhaps not as much wow factor as Wallace, but people would be excited if we signed Jennings too.

 

Guess what Mike Wallace averages over his last 29 games?

4 receptions for 58 yards a game.

 

I don't want Wallace either...I've made that clear numerous times......but......

I don't think the pressure of throwing to him more as the #1 is greater than the pressure to sign him (or big name WR). I really don't think Philbin is the type of coach to give two sh|ts about what sports writers say he should do on game day. On the other hand, not signing a big name WR and the pressure that puts on Ross and Ireland is really big and really crushing.

 

To be worth $13 million Wallace will have to be a 1500 yard 10 touchdown receiver. That is a lot of money.

My Mock draft is more facetious. I think to be more realistic I would have to swap Armstead with Hunt, and then swap Armstead with McDonald. That draft would add a lot of speed to Miami.