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Miami Draft Strategy

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Boomer, Mar 12, 2013.

  1. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    HELL No
     
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  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I disagree with the assertion that Davone Bess is no better a slot receiver than Richard Marshall and Dimitri Patterson are starting (perimeter) corners.

    Very strongly disagree with that.
     
  3. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    You have to admit. Those picks just lost a lot of flexibility. Two have been spoken for.
     
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  4. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ah, I see. I didn't know that one linebacker was destined to be a two down guy only. I thought the only reason for that was because of the way the roster was constructed. That makes sense.

    Also, I don't think the hype about Ellerbe and Wheeler is about their pass rushing ability. Everyone knows they aren't pass rushers. The excitement is about the fact that they are very good at blitzing. They could be very effective in bringing pressure up the middle.
     
  5. RickyBobby

    RickyBobby VIP DIY

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    Yep, gotta look at the possibilities.

    I would love it it we got Winston, a FA CB and another passrushing DE before the draft...in that order of importance.

    That would give us no glaring needs, just positions that need to have more impact.

    Best weapons on offense are Austin, Patterson and Eifert. You would love to get one of those players.

    Defense we could look at Jordan, star, Jones, Rhodes, Werner, etc.

    I think you have you ask where the bigger dropoff would be a attack that position first. You could add that dynamic RAC threat in Patternson or Austin, passing on te where I feel we could supplement later in the draft.

    All depends on the OT position, it appears. If one of those tackles slide to us and we haven't addressed it yet I don't see how Ireland will pass it up.


    Whatever happens st that position I think the best way the improve offense is to find a way to draft Eifert and Cooper
     
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    At least two.
     
  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    But that's exactly what I'm talking about, people getting excited about blitzing success. It's just not that important. It's more a function of how the offense picks up the blitz than it is the skill of the linebacker doing the blitzing. I remember when we signed Karlos Dansby, he was supposed to be an extraordinary blitzer...so much so that some people thought he might man one of our OLB spots in the 3-4 defense at need. I took a look at his tape in pass rush/blitz and I didn't see special skills that differentiate him from other guys. If you pick him up he's blocked. If you don't, he's not. Same is true with Dannell Ellerbe, although I think Wheeler has a little more skill than just that.

    It's just a bad idea to target real linebackers because of blitz success, IMO.
     
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  8. unifiedtheory

    unifiedtheory Sub Pending Luxury Box

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    Bingo.

    There is no such thing as "BPA" when your starting right tackle is Nate Garner and your corners look like ours.
     
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  9. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Patterson is a very good slot corner, arguably as good a slot corner as Bess is a slot receiver, hence an average salary of $5+ million in his current contract. Marshall makes over $5 million/year and was Zona's defensive MVP in 2011, an honor that Bess will never touch on the opposite side of the ball and likely a salary Bess will never touch either, as he currently averages half of what Patterson & Marshall make. I'd say that's enough argument to qualify as Bess being no better a slot receiver than Marshall or Patterson are corners.
     
  10. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Fine, then I'll tweak mine, too, if you're adding in perimeter as a modifier. My updated one goes something like, "Bess is a worse Xfactor slot receiver than Patterson, Marshall, and Carroll are perimeter corners." :p
     
  11. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    It'd be a hoot if Yeatmen is actually looking like a promising player. He's at what, an athletic 310 pounds now at 6'6?
     
  12. CANDolphan

    CANDolphan Well-Known Member

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    Ah well ****. I was considering Marshall and Patterson perimeter CBs as well, I just didn't say it. You got me there.
     
  13. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    :tongue2:
    but I do feel a healthy Marshall on the perimeter is roughly on par with Bess as a slot receiver.
     
  14. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well you have to figure that as soon as the team re-signed Brian Hartline to a fairly large, long-term contract, people's perceptions of his inadequacies were strongly challenged, and the scapegoat for Ryan Tannehill's performance in 2012 then had to become Davone Bess. Notice how the ire toward the receivers has subtly shifted from Hartline to Bess.
     
  15. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Philbin said this in his recent interview on NFL Network - during the owners meeting.

    I want Tavon badly because I think he will make a ton of big plays in the kicking game, the running game and at WR so I think it would be a great pick - but I certainly have come to agree with this point that over the past few weeks that they are going to go in a different direction in round 1 (after signing Gibson, then doing nothing - so far - at DE, OT/OG, and CB).
     
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  16. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    Honestly, don't you think that Ireland scouting tavon 3 times before the signing of these receivers was the back up plan if he and philbin didn't get one via FA?
     
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  17. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    When did it become standard practice to fill every hole in FA?

    I mean some of you are acting like the first tenet of roster building is to grab every FA at every hole no matter the cost.
     
  18. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    I think it's should be more of a priority not a end all.
     
  19. Lee2000

    Lee2000 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I have to admit that Ireland's approach to "phase 2" of free agency is quite puzzling. It adds to a little mystery, however, it also takes some mystery out of the draft. If he sits on his hands for the next four weeks, most will expect he will have to draft offensive linemen, cornerbacks, a safety, and probably a defensive end. And one things has "appeared" to occur in the draft. Other teams seem to be keenly aware of what Miami wants to do, and even though we are likely not to know about it publicly, the other teams are prepared to trump Miami's position. That is just gut speculation. There is a part of me that thinks Eifert may be the pick at 12 now. Call it a hunch. Very quite on his front unlike the Austin front.
     
  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    It should never be a priority and every time it is for a team, that team fails.

    You take players in FA if and only if, they fit your goals on the field and in the checkbook. That's it. You don't grab any RT just because you need one. They either fit both criteria or they don't.

    Not too mention, there is not a 2 week time limit either.
     
  21. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    On the good side of that, is if it's puzzling to us, it's certainly giving other teams something to think about as well as they prepare for the draft....I mean, imho, having the pasties spend an extra pick to move up in front of us (for example) is just as good as us drafting the guy they wanted (and that we wanted also)...

    I don't see Eiffert as our #12 pick though, isn't that a bit early for him ??

    I think there is a major shift in the usage of FA going on with all teams at this point. The old adage of not 'buying a franchise' is going away for the new quality of players that are now going to be in FA...there are more and more of the guys drafted under the new rookie wage scale that are leaving their drafted teams for the big bucks...Guys that are not just the aging veteran guys that have populated FA for the most part... Good GMs will and are using FA as part of the team building process, not just the fill in the blanks...

    On the other hand, the most ideal way to go into the draft is to have your holes at least filled to the point that you could get thru the season if you don't get the right guys you want in the draft... We all know there is more secondary FA to come, the part of FA that commences when you get thru the draft and still have a hole or some depth to fill....

    I think it wise to reserve judgement on what we think about getting this guy or not getting this guy until at least sometime after the draft...
     
  22. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    Well when I said priority I obviously meant someone that fits the system at the needed position. Just cause I said it was a priority doesn't mean anyone's mother needs to be signed if they are good. I understand people see a FA who is an elite talent and try to justify them fitting our system but the square doesn't fit in the triangle. If the FA fits the system and is an upgrade over an expendable player we should absolutely kick the tires, pending cap space
     
  23. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I totally agree with you on this. I do believe, however, that this year is being treated as an exception. I think Ross is tired of waiting and because we have this new coach and new system, they are going the FA route to jump start the transformation. Normally, I'm not a FA guy, but THIS YEAR, I think I understand the strategy, and agree with it. They bought some needed players that fit the new system better. They were the 'must have players' and now we are in the.......sign them at a good price or else we wait for the draft. If we can get a good deal, they will sign another FA. If they can't, they will draft them or wait for the late FA period when teams make cuts.
    If I am right about all of this, I like what they are doing. Especially what is going on now. The draft will be the main focus from now on, year in and year out, unless we NEED someone and can get them at the right price.
    Build through the draft. That keeps you in a better cap situation.

    Also, good job on carrying the Tevon Austin flag, Phins.
     
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  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Again, they have to fit and that includes price.

    Take Winston. He may or may not sign with us yet, but its not like we ignored him. Its not like we didn't make an offer. Hell, its not even like he left in a rage over the offer. If we don't sign Winston, people here will lose their collective ****. And why? Because we weren't willing to overpay for a right tackle? A right tackle.

    There is a hysteria going on right now. We are finally roster building the right way through the draft with a smattering of young FAs.
     
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  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Nah, this happens every year. It might be magnified this year but only because its Ireland and every year that goes by the hate grows stronger.
     
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  26. apatos19

    apatos19 New Member

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    Well said. I don't understand the hysteria either. Fans have complaining for years about Ireland, and now he is proving he can makes splashy moves in a smart way. He has done a remarkable job of getting rid of players that don't fit the schemes Philbin wants to run on O and D, and bringing in players that do without signing an overly expensive FA that will only be a one year bandaid .

    We don't need a shutdown corner, we need smart corners who play zone/cover 2. No need to chase a Grimes, or Revis, what we need we can pick up as FA settles.

    We need tackles, but I don't think Miami goes after any of the big ones in the first round. We let Long go, no reason to draft another to rplace him. We can draft another Martin in the second round, and in later rounds try to find some diamonds in the rough for development and depth.

    Our first pick is still waiting to select whoever we think can become a future star and vital piece of the core of the team, whatever postion. I still see Ireland taking a WR with a second rounder to complete the WR corps.
     
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  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I really disagree with that philosophy. As a General Manager you have to make sure the roster doesn't have any glaring holes that would drag down the team and prevent it from competing at the highest level. The best way to do that is by drafting well but free agency is a major part of that as well. To do differently is just negligence, as we saw a year ago with the wide receiver position.

    How you approach free agency is entirely dependent on your assets and your liabilities. The Dolphins walked into this free agent period with more liabilities than assets, which is what I've been trying to say for a long time. They've used up a lot of those assets without covering a lot of their liabilities. Like I said they walked into free agency with the following SCHEDULED liabilities:

    QB2 - Matt Moore 2 years, $4.0 million per year
    RB2 - ???
    TE1 - Dustin Keller 1 year, $4.25 million per year
    WR1 - Mike Wallace 5 years, $12.0 million per year
    WR2 - Brian Hartline 5 years, $6.2 million per year
    OT1 - ???
    OT3 - Nate Garner 3 years, $1.6 million per year
    DT1 - Randy Starks 1 year, $8.4 million per year
    DT3 - ???
    DE2 - ???
    LB4 - ???
    CB1 - ???
    CB2 - ???
    FS1 - Chris Clemons 1 year, $2.75 million

    That's over $39 million in salaries and yet they've only covered 2 of the 8 major holes from a long term standpoint and have 3 other one year band-aids. They've covered 2 of the 5 minor holes. They spent money filling positions that weren't even necessarily holes. The linebacker swap to me comes out a wash financially so I'm fine with that provided they've got the talent correctly evaluated (of which I'm not convinced yet). But Brandon Gibson doesn't fill a need nor does he come out a wash financially. That's an extra $3.3 million per year for a guy you didn't really need.

    The argument that teams shouldn't walk into free agency thinking they need to grab players at every position is a poorly founded one because it assumes that every team is in the same boat every year when free agency opens. That's just not the case. The Dolphins walked into free agency with a lot of money to spend and the reason they had a lot of money to spend was because of the expiring contracts of a lot of their players. They're not some 10-6 team with a lot of talent that is pressed up against the cap for a reason, because they have so much talent on the roster. So yes, they should have been focused at finding players at every position of need that fit what you do schematically and make sense financially. They could be big money players or small money players. There are values to be had at all levels.

    You can't sit here and look at the fact that over a quarter of all cornerback snaps from 2012 were available in free agency and yet there was nothing the Dolphins could do because the "right" value never presented itself. That's a line. If that's the case then clearly they're not valuing things very well.
     
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  28. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A skilled player was my 2nd choice at 12...

    I think Miami needs to find a complementary RB to pair with Lamar Miller, for sure. I don't think there's one I'd take at 12 though. Tavon Austin would be a luxury pick there. Cooper fills a need IMO. Jones, while it appears he'd be a luxury on the surface, I think allows Miami to move Koa Misi and gives you someone who can play three downs ALONG WITH Ellerbe and Wheeler, and allows you to still carve out niches for Vernon and Shelby while they develop.

    I think it's interesting Miami's looking at both Giovani Bernard and Andre Ellington - smaller, utility-type backs. That'd give them, in theory, a complete RB in Miller; a big back in either Thomas or Gray, a speedy utility back in Bernard or Ellington (if drafted), and then of course there's a specialist in Marcus Thigpen who can return kicks and gives you some options as far as running fly sweeps, screens, etc. from the slot. That's not necessarily a RB per se, but Miami lists him there. If anything, I think adding Ellington gives you an interesting stable of backs. Interesting meaning unproven at this point.
     
  29. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Anyone worried about the backloaded deals and "show me" contracts to some of these guys? Anyone else worried we may be backing up the truck for this year and maybe next, to get excitement for the stadium renovations, but also setting themselves up to be able to cut money off cap in 3 years? Something I was thinking about...
     
  30. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Well the salary cap is going to go up significantly in 2015.

    But what they're doing now isn't really any different financially than what they've done in the past. They money they gave to Wallace/Ellerbe/Wheeler is pretty much what they did with Marshall/Dansby/Burnett.

    Really just a continuation of the same strategies, just players that better fit the current system.
     
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  31. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't see the Dolphin's actions in FA as a mystery at all. I said going into FA that their priorities should be improving WR/TE and the pass rush after that I had OL as third. They brought in WRs, signed a TE and LBs that are better pass rushers than what we had. I think the fact that the new LBs are faster was a big part of that, not only in terms of pass rush but in their ability to cover the flats. I don't think they're as good in man coverage, but I expect more zone and they're an upgrade there. They also looked at DEs right away. They didn't get their top guy, but clearly that was a focus. Then they looked at OL and have brought in guys at T and G. I still think we are a slight favorite to sign Winston. I don't see CB as a big concern. Zone CB positions are easy to fill. And if you have a good pass rush and Ss then their impact is pretty standard whether you have the name guy or not. I prefer to do it with vets over draft picks as most take a while to figure it out. I wouldn't even care if we came out of the draft without a CB. That's not what I would do since there are a few I like, but I certainly wouldn't use #12 on any of them. But if we didn't get CBs in the draft, I feel confident that vets will be available as teams make their cuts. If a guy like Grimes comes cheap and on an incentive contract great! If not guys like Winfield (or preferably younger) will be available before the season. I would even list an upgrade at S as a priority over CB. If you look at the league over the last 10 years or so, you won't find a CB coming in as the big FA signing or the high draft pick (other than Revis) and improving the pass defense much if at all. You see it all the time with pass rushers and Ss, but not CB. Look at teams like Philly or Denver when they signed the CBs who were considered top 5 guys and what their pass D was the next season. Those teams spent big money and their pass D got worse. It happens over and over yet people still think that signing a name CB will improve the pass D. There are many theories as to why. People can argue about the why, b/c that is opinion. But what is fact is that pass defenses aren't improving when big resources are used at CB. That part isn't debatable. The most you can do is offer excuses for why the big money CB didn't translate into an improved pass D. But people can't get past thinking a better CB must mean better pass D even though the facts prove it doesn't.
     
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  32. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, as it stands if they don't make any more moves they've got what, like 15 million they can probably safely roll over into next year.

    I think the timing on when to have money was quite good this year. A lot of teams are purging and the Dolphins have money, free agency this year appears likely to be significantly better than the players going to market next year. Next year there will likely be more teams with money fighting over less players. Ireland had the team flush with cap space in what appears to be a buyers market at a lot of positions.
     
  33. apatos19

    apatos19 New Member

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    With all due respect, because I'm here having found you on Twitter, after admiring your well reasoned posts at FinHeaven, I would ask you this:

    What FA's out there now, would fill the holes on the roster as players that fit the new systems/schemes Philbin and co want to run here?

    I didn't mind losing Long, because I felt he had regressed and wasn't worth the money, nor he was a good fit for Zone Blocking. I believe we have to draft a R or L tackle, just maybe not in the first round. Or move back into the end of the first to grab one, if we feaal there is one worthy.

    I also didn't mind losing VD or SS, because I felt they didn't live up to the expectations the team had for them, ie: the next Surtain and Madison. Besides, everything I have read leaves me to believe Coyle employs a lot of zone coverage, and we may have a pair of adequate starters on our roster. We definately need to look at upgrading them, but with who. You don't trade Vontae and let Smith go to go out replace them with another expensive shutdown corner, do you?

    I don't think we need anyone as far as DL or Linebacker. What we have will work, I think, and I'd like to see how they develop.

    Running back? We just need some backups. Should be easy to find, I would think...

    I'm not flaming you, I'm sincerely asking what you think we should do...
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That's a myth.
     
  35. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Serious risk running, here. We tried drafting a starting T in the 2nd round last draft, like you said, and he turned out to be one of the worst Tackles in the AFC. Now you want to bargain hunt again and have two potentially low-level, unproven Tackles protecting the (hopefully) franchise QB? You'd be looking at another Mike Vick/Jay Cutler situation, getting the QB killed. If we don't get a starting T in free agency, we really have to consider moving up for one of the three studs.
     
  36. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    This is faulty logic, because Martin was universally projected in the first.
     
  37. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Don't the new TV contracts kick in for the 2014 season?
     
  38. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    If the only way you can get quality players is through FA or early 1st round, then you're doomed.
     
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    There's so much I don't agree with. Starting with what you count as glaring holes.

    RB2 is not a glaring hole
    OT1 is not a glaring hole.
    DT3 is not a glaring hole.
    LB4 is not a glaring hole.
    I'm not even convinced CB2 is a glaring hole.

    They may not be positions of strength, but they aren't exactly holes. We have role players and potentially ascending players to fill those spots. For example, to say Martin isn't our #1 is silly. We have a hole at RT not at OT1.

    The argument does not assume everyone is in the same boat entering FA. The argument assumes its poor roster building to simply grab a player because on paper they fill a need regardless of cost.

    Our biggest record threatening holes are at RT, DE2 & CB1. Those can be manned with low level FAs and draft picks. Draft picks we have 11 of btw.

    We are a considerably better team overall on paper this year than last year already and the FA period still has a long way to go and the draft hasn't happened yet.
     
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  40. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Great conversation on CB. Who can guarantee a CB at 12 will be a Revis? I do think the Jets have had a very good pass D and Revis has had a big part. But, I hate choosing CB in round 1. Esp. the history of Miami doing that (Vontae had some good moments but still don't think it was worth it - esp. since they traded him). Of course, then there's Jamar Fletcher (thankfully we don't have DW).

    I'd like to get a CB down further in the draft (at earliest 2nd pick in round 2) and double up later. But, would not be opposed to Grimes at right price (whether he'll be able to play much early on or even make the roster is a question-mark though).

    There have been a few really great FA acquisitions at CB (Woodson at Green Bay was huge for them in their SB run). And, the older the player the smarter he will be at adjusting and reading offenses.
     

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