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Miami Draft Strategy

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Boomer, Mar 12, 2013.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I tried to explain this once before but there is no substantial projected increase in the salary cap expected for 2014 or 2015. When they signed the new CBA there should've been a substantial decrease in the 2011 and 2012 salary caps. The NFLPA struck an agreement with the NFL that essentially "borrowed" against any future increases expected in 2015 and beyond in order to prevent such a heavy drop in salary cap space. As a result the cap is expected to be pretty flat for more years to come.

    http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/.../18/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NFL-cap.aspx

     
  2. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Agreed...but they're more likely to be starters. I just think we're in an especially precarious position at T, one of the more important positions on the field when we have a young QB. I do not think Martin proved himself to be a steady NFL starter at this point; he was not good at all last year. We currently have zero Tackles who have proven themselves as reliable NFL starters.

    To go into the second and third rounds, where starters are more difficult to come by, still with zero to me is a risk - and one we don't have to take. We had plenty of money in FA, and we have enough picks to move around for elite talent. Waiting til the second or third round to try to fill a hole at a key position (one where we already have question marks in Martin) is irresponsible to a developing QB, imo. Ideally I would get a guy in FA and allow yourself some more freedom in the draft - I'd be fine with a RT at this point, just give me someone who you know is a viable NFL starter.
     
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  3. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    So far the only way Ireland has been able to get quality O-lineman is through FA or early 1st round.
     
  4. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    Lol yea this would be ideal.
     
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  5. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    If that were true then it wouldn't make sense to set up a predraft private workout [in April] with Tavon, would it?
     
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  6. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Not worried yet. We backloaded deals to allow for a handful of 1 year guys to impact this year, and with 5 picks in the first three rounds and some 2012 draftees still developing, I think we could have some of these inexpensive youngens step in next year to balance out the backloaded contracts.

    For instance: Soliai ($7.9M), Starks (8.5M), Marshall (5.8M), Incognito (5.4M), Patterson (4.6M), Keller (4.3M), Bess (3.4M), Carpenter (3.0M), Clemons (2.8M). That's $46M that we could reduce significantly by having inexpensive draftees step into some of those roles.
     
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  7. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    You got me there. I stand corrected
     
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  8. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    It's not about "getting anybody". I'm just trying to piece it together from a logical standpoint.
     
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  9. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University

    Huh? That was more Todd than Phinsational....

    Sorry folks I know you all love the Teenwolf, but I liked Scott Howard a lot better.
     
  10. cspooner13

    cspooner13 New Member

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    I'd be very surprised to see Soliai, Starks, Marshall, Patterson, Bess, and Carpenter on the team next year. I think we'll want to keep Incognito around for some consistency on the O-line. I also think that we'll keep Keller around provided he is fully recovered from his injuries and performs in the capacity we think he can. I wouldn't be surprised to see Clemons hang around too to mentor the young guys we're going to draft
     
  11. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Not sure I agree considering the desire for a zone blocking scheme.

    Don't think that's necessarily true depending on what strides Egnew makes this year and if we draft a TE in the first 3 rounds.

    If we draft his replacement this year we'll have the freedom to either keep or ditch him if needed, which was more to my point.
     
  12. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    Lol I didn't take it as out to get me, I just didn't know how recently that was scheduled (7 days ago) more of a thank you for the info.
     
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  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Now you know, I'd be all for getting Austin in Rd1 and Bailey in Rd2 and telling the haters to blow me, but what if their game visits are more about Bailey than Austin?

    Bailey said in a radio interview he's supposed to meet with Dolphins. And Green Bay has a successful history of 2nd rd receivers and to me Bailey is a prototype Green Bay style receiver........

    Its a possibility....no?
     
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  14. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    I think it's possible, and it's extremely intriguing, because if Tannehill were to make any progress at all on last season, we'd wind up with a top 5 aerial attack in the league.

    On the other hand, I think it's improbable, because you get to the point where you're putting either Gibson or Bailey at 5 on the depth chart. I guess you could mix and match them in different situations, and they could both be out there for some plays, but to me, I feel like a guy making ~$3 million and a 2nd round pick both would deserve better than that.

    I think just Austin or just Bailey is more likely, and combined with a corner or tackle, would go further in improving our team than drafting both WVU wideouts... JMO
     
  15. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I wouldn't necessarily equate visiting with a prospect to desire to draft the prospect or considering drafting him.
     
  16. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Tackle is the most precarious position in the NFL. Quality starters are few and far between. Even a guy like Winston - that everyone wants to sign - didn't look very good last year.
     
  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    From all accounts he did look pretty good last year.
     
  18. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I don't agree. He looked average to slightly below IMO.
     
  19. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Did you watch many KC games where you were able to focus on him?
     
  20. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I probably have watched 3-4 KC games. I mean he wasn't bad, but he was kinda meh IMO.
     
  21. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    It's possible, sure, but does it seem logical? To me it doesn't considering there's a finite number of Saturdays a GM can scout players, so I personally wouldn't see him spending that time on anything other than our 1st round options. I think it's possible and likely that while watching Tavon, Bailey caught his eye, too, and it would make sense b/c if you're looking to upgrade the slot, it's impossible to not identify Bailey as a target. Obviously he can play on the perimeter but IMO Bailey would be viewed as Bess's replacement first and foremost; otherwise I don't think we would've inked 3 guys most suited for the outside.
     
  22. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    That's a bummer to have him drop off like that from one year. Perhaps he was already declining by the end of 2011 and Houston knew this, hence not re-signing him? yay, nay?
     
  23. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I would if we're talking about those visits being made by a GM whose time is valuable and opportunity to actually scout players is spread quite thin. I could see if it's the first visit and the GM is simply gauging the player, but when you reach a 2nd visit and then a 3rd [Bowl game] when other big games are happening on the same day or the day before or after, I think it crosses over into the mindset of, "this is a guy we either have an interest in drafting or want to draft". Otherwise he wouldn't continue spending his precious time on the player; he'd move on to the next 1st round possibility. You don't walk by the hot chick on the beach a 2nd and 3rd time b/c you like the towel she's laying on, nor send 3 of you buddies to check her out at the showers (IE: pro day), nor give her your number and ask her out (IE: pre draft private workout). my2cents
     
  24. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    See, I don't think they use visits just for guys they're interested in drafting. They use it to answer questions they still may have about any prospect. They need to have as complete a scouting report as possible on as many players as possible. Even if they don't draft Tavon Austin, they'll likely play against him at some point, or they may have interest in acquiring him in the future. Whatever information they can get on him will be as valuable as possible. If the team can use a visit to figure out that Geno Smith doesn't like a certain coverage, then that info will be valuable if/when they play him.
     
  25. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I don't disagree with you on that part. It definitely makes sense. Where I think it goes a step further is when Ireland, himself, is making 3 visits b/c IMO it's counterproductive to have your GM (the guy making the 1st pick) to spend 3 weekends watching a player he isn't interested in drafting with the 1st pick. If he doesn't want Austin then he should be moving onto other 1st round prospects and leave the day 2 and beyond prospects up to the scouts he pays for such a responsibility. Ireland spent a decent amount of time watching Tannehill in 2011, and IMO it only makes sense for the guy doing the drafting, the guy with the job on the line, to be spending his scouting time on 1st round prospects. We have plenty of scouts who can break down Geno Smith's game as a side job w/o our GM having to do such a task that IMO is counterproductive to the finite amount of time he has to make sure we nail the #1 pick. IMO it only makes sense for Ireland to scout the top few guys he wants, not the guys he doesn't want, regardless of whether or not they might be drafted for a divisional rival.
     
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  26. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I think it'd be safe to assume that Ireland was there on 3 separate occassions b/c he was interested in potentially picking one or more players from there. I doubt he would make more trips to scout a potential opponent than he usually does to scout the players he's interested in taking. Obviously that doesn't mean he will take that player. He may have learned something on the trip that made him like the player less. Or he may have made so many trips b/c he just wasn't sold on the guy, but wanted to like him (wanted a certain type, or to fill a particular need).
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Do we know that Jeff Ireland made 3 separate visits specifically to see West Virginia?

    I believe one of the "visits" was him attending the Pinstripe Bowl to see Syracuse AND West Virginia, at a time when the Dolphins team was already up in the Northeast for the Pats game. I may be wrong. But I think the fact that this is taken to be a Jeff Ireland visit to see West Virginia is kind of exemplary of the tunnel vision we have about Tavon Austin right now.
     
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  28. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Now you just hush, and let us have our dreams about drafting Tavon for a few more weeks. :shifty:
     
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  29. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I don't think it's tunnel vision TBH. Considering how seriously Ireland takes his job I think he was doing more than just watching Syracuse & WVU due to proximity. It's still a 3.5 hour drive to Boston so Ireland could've just as easily first flown to San Antonio for the Texas-Oregon St game (Vacarro, Okafor, Goodwin, Wheaton, Poyer) and then flown from there to catch the 4:25 Pats game in a shorter amount of time than it'd take to drive from NY to Boston. If he's flying, not driving, from NY to Boston then what's an extra couple hours of flight time from Texas to Boston when something as important as our first round pick is involved? I seriously doubt Ireland would be thinking, "I really want to check out Vacarro & Okafor but those extra couple hours of flight time are a deal breaker". Sorry, I don't see it. If he had other players players/games prioritized he would've made it happen IMO.
     
  30. surferosa

    surferosa Balance and Vision

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    Interesting tweet by Jeremiah. Lot of teams may pluck their QB's of the future at the begining of round two which will cause a lot of first round talent to fall to us at 2.11.

    Daniel Jeremiah ‏@MoveTheSticks 1m
    Here are the QB matches I hear most often from NFL sources: Bills-Geno, AZ-Glennon, JAX-Nassib, PHI-Manuel…for what it's worth.
     
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  31. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    Where is Barkley?
     
  32. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Charles Barkley?
     
  33. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    the next dimension
    tnt?
     
  34. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    The uh.. Great uh.. Well uh.. Basketball
     
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  35. GreenMonster

    GreenMonster New Member

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    So at least I am not the only one seeing some form of tunnel vision.
     
  36. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Both of you just see that because you do not agree.
     
  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Started thinking about this....

    A lot of people are saying we need to sign a FA tackle so we have more flexibility in the top part of the draft. I don't think that's true.

    I don't think any available FA tackle is good enough or a long term enough solution to affect the top part of our draft. I think if there's a tackle they want to take at a given spot they take him regardless of who else we pick up at tackle at this point. Take Winston, for example....

    The thinking is, if we don't take him, we'd be trying to use the #12 pick in the draft on a tackle. That would mean we'd have to think Winston was first round talent.
    But we clearly don't regard Winston all THAT high, otherwise we'd pay him what he wants...we can certainly afford it. We are obviously not worried about losing him to another team, otherwise we'd pay what he wants. That tells me 1 of 2 things:

    A) FA has no bearing if we draft a tackle high

    or

    B) We are not going to draft a tackle high
     
  38. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that the team feels far more comfortable with what they have at T (both LT and RT) than the fans are. I think it's due to two reasons. One is the system. The quick passing game limits the importance of the T position b/c in a larger number of situations the passes come out so quick that nobody can run the arc before the pass is out. That's where a player like Austin who can get quick separation is key. That kind of player fits the system (and some of RT's strengths) perfectly and will increase the percentage of plays where the DE rush is irrelevant. Now that doesn't completely make the T position unimportant. There will be situations where we need and want to complete longer passes and we did just sign Wallace. As fast as he is, he can't run 30 yards down the field (at the point the long pass is released) faster than a DE can run the arc against no pass pro. We need good enough Ts to slow down the DEs once in a while. The other reason is that fans tend to believe more in "names" or that players can be "proven" than coaches do. When we signed Wake, we definitely had a need. I had scouted Wake and felt that he had a good enough chance of filling that need that we didn't need to add another LB early in that draft. Many here disagreed b/c they hadn't heard of Wake, he played in the CFL and he wasn't proven. Coaches will look at what they've seen in practice and make a determination whether they believe the players they have have a good chance of filling the need. I don't attend practices anymore so I can't speak to what they've seen at T, but my guess is that they feel they have enough that they don't need to sign just anybody. That level of player wouldn't substantially improve the odds of the need being filled. I think they still want to add another vet for security purpose, but they're only going to pay so much for an insurance policy. And they probably figure that that level of vet T will be available after the draft or as teams start making cuts. So I think they feel they're not set at T, but they're good enough that they could get by based on the talent they have and the system and they can still find other players to help them get by if come camp they find out they were wrong. I don't think they'll go OL at #12, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them go OL in the first three rounds. Maybe a guy like Menelik Watson from FSU. But if they have expectations of a vet they like being a cut casualty elsewhere they might pass on OL entirely in the first three rounds.
     
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  39. CANDolphan

    CANDolphan Well-Known Member

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    Heard from some strong source that we are trading up in the draft. I said that was foolish as hell but then they said "back into the 1st round" so Im thinking... #12 and possibly moving up from our 1st #2 to the bottom 1st. Wonder who the target would be...

    Obviously nobody knows but Ireland but that's the rumbling going around in the building I suppose.
     
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  40. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I remember last year Ireland hinted that Miami was trying to trade back into the tail end of round one to draft Nick Perry, but he couldn't work out a deal to jump in front of the Packers.

    My first thought would be Eddie Lacy. Bigger back to complement Lamar Miller. Maybe Jonathan Cyprien the S from FIU.
     

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