I think coaches in the national football league are generally full of ****. Joe Philbin isn't really an exception. It doesn't surprise or bother me that he'd go on about how free agency isn't the answer to your problems and then act excited about pieces to the puzzle that we added via free agency. He'll dance between the rain drops by explaining circumstances, etc. Or not. He may not say anything at all and just let everyone else dance between the rain drops for him. That generally seems to work out. He also spent years talking about how he doesn't like the concept of a #1 wide receiver and then voila, we've got a $12 million a year, 10 percent of your salary cap wide receiver all the sudden, and all he can say about him is how excited he is to use him, defending criticisms, etc. He goes on about how he doesn't like role players at receiver, a guy that works mostly from the slot, etc...he wants guys that do everything and move everywhere. Yet in Green Bay there were very clearly delineated slot players and clearly delineated perimeter players. I'm not trying to roast the guy. This is all par for the course for NFL coaches.
I think to be a successful NFL Coach, you have to be a Top-Notch Poker Player. Double speak doesn't ever mean anything. Billicheat is the master, and is ruthless in gaining talent because of it.....of course Billicheat is also a grade a Asshat....but that is another story.
Austin is a significantly better receiver than McCluster. night & day. They shouldn't be compared b/c McCluster was mostly a running back at Ole Miss rushing 290 times vs 88 receptions during his final 2 years. There's a big difference between a player who allows for creativity and one who requires it. KC had to creatively find ways to utilize McCluster where as Austin is a legitimate receiver who offers an added dimension of creativity. Austin is like taking Davone Bess and turning him into on of the game's fastest receivers, where he goes from being a solid slot receiver who offers little offensive creativity to possibly being the game's best slot receiver who offers immense creativity & scheme flexibility.
I wouldn't say night & day, but Tavon *is* significantly better as a receiver, I agree. However, he has his limitations in terms of how he must be used to impact a game. Which is fine, because if used properly, by a good coaching staff, he will have a big impact, imo.
I don't know how any defense would be able to stop Wallace, Austin, Hartline, Keller and a strong north south running game. Even the best offenses right now lack that kind of pressure dynamic on the safeties. An undersized dime DL against a strong run blocking OL is a major mismatch.
Oh, I think the fact we have SERIOUS question marks at, at least 2 line spots makes it easy for defenses to stop them. We have seen it over and over with New England. Get pressure on Brady and you beat them. Well, our line is currently not even nearly as good as theirs, especially at the Uber important LT position, and add in that Tannehill is light years from being Brady. All the shiny fast pieces in the world mean jack squat if your QB is constantly getting knocked the F out.
None of that matters if you're running them over. I expect Winston to hold down RT after he's signed. New England's guys can't put this kind of pressure on a defense in terms of speed. They have far less dynamic pieces.
I love Austin in the 1st and DE/CB/OL filling in later. (I am actually getting a bit concerned someone in the top 10 will fall in love with him and he won't make it out of the top 10). But, if, as you noted elsewhere, the Dolphin brass was freely talking the kid up, I have to imagine that they have something else up their sleeve. Anyone know when his visit will be? I don't think you will get that kind of dynamic piece later (could be very lucky) but I do think you can get some other players at DE/CB/OL who will be sufficient to win (may even become very good players). I also think it will be very interesting to see where Carradine falls in this draft with the knee injury. He is a very good player, obviously, with some raw physical tools that are pretty impressive (he goes 6'4, with nearly 35 inch arms and did 28 bench presses - he seems to use those arms and that strength very effectively).
Honest opinion is that the jury is still out. The biggest thing that concerns me so far is the zero tolerance for even a whiff of individuality amongst his players. I haven't gotten any hints that he's found the right sweet spot yet for creating the locker room the way he wants to create it while also being accepting of the fact that you're not going to have cookie cutter players all having the exact same personality and all coming to work, keeping their mouths shut and producing. I think he's going to end up learning some things the hard way that he wouldn't otherwise necessarily have to.
What do you think of Miami trading down and going for a bonanza in the draft's strongest portions? Something like dropping to the 20s and accumulating picks galore?
It's a tough one for me because actually I like the talent inside that top 20 more than I like the options around the 40's. When I ran the Dolphins in #MockTwo, I took Bjoern Werner when he fell to me, and then I traded back up for Cordarrelle Patterson. My draft was before free agency and so I was assuming in free agency that we would re-sign Jake Long and attack the CB position en force (multple signings) during the free agent period. I like the Grimes signing but I'd have paired it with one or maybe even two others. I think about the Dolphins perhaps being able to swipe a Tank Carradine at 12 and then get back up in the round for Tyler Eifert or Xavier Rhodes, maybe even Tavon Austin after all...I dunno. Tempting. The scenario that the Dolphins played out in free agency lends itself more to a focused approach in the draft than to a shotgun approach. If I was going shotgun approach (trade down, acquire more picks) then I'd have ran free agency differently.
Perhaps the approach then is to get someone that would be in those top 20 guys (Tavon Austin trade down) to around 20, then come back into the round on the back end as you said with whatever talent you got out of the first trade down. Heck if you did it right perhaps you could even have three first rounders on the back end. 12 down to 20-25, grab a late 20s range Late 2nd+late 2nd to get into that late 20s range early 2nd+early 3rd to get into that late 20s range Then you have a Jets draft similar to 2000.
IF we were able to pull off Keenan Allen and Trufant, and then maybe Kelce, I would be happy as a Jest in Sheyot!!!....as long as we are able to shore up the holous front line we are looking at right now.
Here's a scenario I came up with: Miami signs Eric Winston after failing to trade up in inexpensive fashion for Lane Johnson. Miami then trades down to grab a late 2nd. Then trade a late 2nd plus late 2nd to get into the late first again. Then they trade a 2+3 to get into that range again: - Trufant - Carradine - Allen Miami gets three bonafide first round talents out of the draft.
Only problem is, I am thinking that Trufant might not even be there at 12....and I am thinking that Allen might not make it till 20 or so depending on if people can overlook the injuries.....
It doesn't really matter. If those guys are picked higher you're still looking at quality players. You want to grab as many players out of the sweet spot of that draft as you possibly can.
There is something to be said for what many people do not realize and that is: ELITE or very good OTs are not always needed if the QB can diagnose defenses+get the ball out quickly. Pats never had one truly "elite" LT or RT. I would say they had a notch above serviceable players. J.Long was setting the price for Vollmer and the other FAs not the other way around so do not mention Vollmer. My point with this digression is that you need worry about having great players at the "uber important LT position" or RT if your QB has enough talent/intelligence/good study habits to get the ball out fast. Austin's talent certainly lends itself well to this notion as he seems to get open very quickly. No offense, but this is an ignorant comment. If your aim every year is to just win the division then you should be fired. Add talent to win a Super Bowl, not just your division. Once you get out of the division, there will be a team in the playoffs or SuperBowl that will test your ability to rush the passer or in this case test your secondary. As a GM, you should always be in the business of adding young talent with eyes on winning the Big One.
I just dont understand Keenan Allen. If we don't have Hartline, yes I like it. But we do. What's he provide that Hartline or Gibson doesn't? Carradine would be fantastic. Carradine and Austin in the 1st, with BPA from there on out (preferred CB/OT, but as I said, BPA) then I'm loving our draft.
So let's run some projections. Does the top 20 have any chance of looking like this? 01. Kansas City Chiefs - OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M 02. Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida 03. Oakland Raiders - DT Star Lotulelei, Utah 04. Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma 05. Detroit Lions - OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan 06. Cleveland Browns - CB Dee Milliner, Alabama 07. Arizona Cardinals - LB Barkevious Mingo, LSU 08. Buffalo Bills - QB Matt Barkley, USC 09. New York Jets - LB Dion Jordan, Oregon 10. Tennessee Titans - FS Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 11. San Diego Chargers - WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia 12. Miami Dolphins - CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State 13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State 14. Carolina Panthers - DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri 15. New Orleans Saints - WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee 16. St. Louis Rams - RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama 17. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia 18. Dallas Cowboys - SS Matt Elam, Florida 19. New York Giants - DE Cornellius "Tank" Carradine, Florida State 20. Chicago Bears - LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
I could see that sure. Based on that I see Miami making a move at WR one that you particularly won't like but I think it'll be Keenan Allen. It'll be the early second and early third to get him. If not it'll be Hopkins with slightly less compensation.
The other thing to think about is there's obviously a staredown happening with the Jets and Bucs over Darrelle Revis. Most think the trade will happen. If it does, then you could see the above adjusted in the following way: 01. Kansas City Chiefs - OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M 02. Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida 03. Oakland Raiders - DT Star Lotulelei, Utah 04. Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma 05. Detroit Lions - OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan 06. Cleveland Browns - CB Dee Milliner, Alabama 07. Arizona Cardinals - LB Barkevious Mingo, LSU 08. Buffalo Bills - QB Matt Barkley, USC 09. New York Jets - LB Dion Jordan, Oregon 10. Tennessee Titans - FS Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 11. San Diego Chargers - WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia 12. Miami Dolphins - CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State 13. New York Jets - QB Geno Smith, West Virginia* 14. Carolina Panthers - DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri 15. New Orleans Saints - WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee 16. St. Louis Rams - RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama 17. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia 18. Dallas Cowboys - SS Matt Elam, Florida 19. New York Giants - DE Cornellius "Tank" Carradine, Florida State 20. Chicago Bears - LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
It feels pretty nice to see Rhodes in the middle of that madness, nice and safe at 12. The Austin, Patterson, Geno Smith, Lacy stuff... It might happen but I hate it for those teams.
Don't really think Miami's interest in either was ever really demonstrably significant. They've got DeAndre Hopkins. They've got two DeAndre Hopkins' as a matter of fact. And they've spent a lot on the WR position already. They're not onto a trade up for either of those guys any more than they're onto Tavon Austin at 12, IMO.
I think they're going to move that pick upward targeting either Tank Carradine, Bjoern Werner or Tyler Eifert.
It all comes down to QBs, imo, and I don't think the decision will be an easy one. Take the Jets or Cards, for instance (I agree with QB to Buffalo). At 7 or 9 they'll be faced with two options: A) draft a guy who isn't really worth a top-10 pick (Jordan, Vaccaro, Patterson) - intriguing prospects but not great like Kuechley or Barron last year. Or B) take a QB who isn't really worth a top-25 pick. That's a tough call, imo. It's like the top 10 is weak enough where QBs could sneak in; but the QBs are weak enough where other positions sneak into the top 10 where QBs usually rule. I find this year much harder to project than most drafts.
And I really hope it doesn't. I hope the Cards take Jordan and leave Mingo to the Jets and then they take Geno Smith with the pick they get from the Bucs.
Thoughts on the Cards for a QB? I find it hard to ignore Bruce Arians' track record with rookie QBs (Roethlisberger, Luck). Think he might be able to talk the Cards into a specific developmental guy who he pegs to sit behind Palmer for a year.
There's a number of ways for them to go about it. A trade up for Barkley on the back end wouldn't be surprising considering he has some similarity to Palmer, although not a ton.
I think Bruce Arians said it best after the Palmer trade. Asked if the trade took them out of the market for a QB high in the draft he said, "I don't know that we ever really were". They're not impressed with Geno Smith or Matt Barkley. They have Hoyer, Lindley and Palmer and I think they may be perfectly satisfied with that. I wouldn't be shocked if they punted on the QB position entirely. They've made a commitment to Palmer.
One other thing about Austin that should put him right in Philbin's wheelhouse, is his comment at the West Va pro day...how for whichever team drafts him, he is going to be the kind of player the team will get no trouble from, he'll keep his mouth shut, show up for work everyday and do whatever is asked of him.
They've acquired four WRs that hover in the same height range and above so far. Austin does not fit into that range. Patterson does.