Guys come back from ACLs all the time. Look at Petersen this year alone. There is absolutely no reports or evidence that RGIII's injury was unique or somehow more catastrophic than a normal ACL/LCL. I see no reason to believe that his career will be significantly shorter than anybody else's. The concussion is also of very little concern to me. They happen in football. As long as it doesn't become chronic it's not a huge issue. And I think the threat to running QBs is overstated. Sure, you want the guy to avoid hits to the extent possible, but he is going to be at greater risk standing in the pocket getting balsted by a 350 pound DT than he is running and getting hit by a CB where he can slide, get out of bounds, or otherwise brace himself for the contact. And even if his career is shorter, I'll take 6-8 years of RGIII at top level over msot other guys top level for 12 years.
The amount of uys who have productive 10 years careers is pretty small, at any position. Guys like Brady and Manning are exceptions to the rule.
It's his 2nd major knee injury in 3 years. You say Peterson, and that's fine. But I'll say Culpepper. Also, he's not built like Adrian Peterson. Griffin isn't quite Pat White build, but he's no Peterson either. He has a relatively small frame. And I see a glaring reason to believe his career will be shorter than Andrew Luck or Matt Ryan or Eli Manning, etc. He has already suffered more injuries in just his rookie season than most of the veteran QBs have suffered in their whole lives. It'd be betting against the odds to assume he will not continue to get injured playing the same style he did this year. The bolded simply isn't true. If it were, guys like Vick and Griffin wouldn't be experiencing a much higher injury rate than the pocket passers. Getting hit by a 280 lbs DE running very far from full speed(as he is fighting off a block 2 feet away from the QB) is much different than running into traffic where your running at almost top speed and you're meeting a LB or DB who are also running at almost top speed. The risk is so much greater.
I'd have to disagree here too. It's weird because I'm usually more in agreement with your positions. But QBs last 10+ years all the time. Even the average ones. Out of the 32 starting NFL QBs, probably 15 will have productive 10+ year careers. Luck Manning Manning Rodgers Roethlisberger Rivers Brady Brees Ryan Even these guys will most likely be productive past 10 years: Flacco Alex Smith Palmer Romo Even Vick is pushing 10+ years now I don't see any reason why guys like Russel Wilson and Ryan Tannehill (pending improvement) can't have a 10+ year career. I do see reason with Robert Griffin, however
The fact remains that players come back from ACL injuries every single season and are no worse for wear. The medicine and surgical techniques are so advanced now that having had an ACL would not be a deal breaker for me. Also, Vick's injuriues the last two season have come in the pocket. You also presume that RGII can't or won't alter his approach slightly to continue doing what he does best, but more judiciously. I think he can. So, if you're asking me if I could go back to the draft last eyar and make the trade, I absolutely would, even knowing he had a greater risk of injury. The potential highs are too great.
I feel bad for RG3. But I do see the trouble he's going through now within the context of my criticisms of him coming out which were: A) He doesn't see the field well from or operate cleanly from a mechanical perspective within the pocket (takes sacks, misses reads), and therefore he's always looking to get outside of the pocket to get an unobstructed view, B) His playing style is far too physical and risky and his strength/weakness profile combined with his frame lend themselves to taking a large amounts of punishment even in college, which already has gotten him seriously injured (concussion & knee injury in college) and will continue to get him injured in the pros, and C) Though an admirable person, he has a uniquely willful yet quirky and unpredictable personality, will always do what he wants to do not what you want him to do, and his motivations may be unpredictable. All of which could make him anywhere from an early retirement risk (a la Ricky Williams) to a free agent departure risk (where it's normally assumed a guy will stay with his team for as long as the team wants him, he may up and decide he doesn't want his team even if they want him), to just strange and unimaginable risks like trying to go to law school while playing football and/or deciding he wants to train for the 400 meter hurdles in the Olympics. This led me to compare him a lot to Russell Wilson and the risk profile that Wilson had as a draft prospect. I said I would value them about the same, near the high 2nd round or maybe low 1st round if you're desperate enough. Both had great talent, but both were fraught with risks. Wilson has many of the same risks as Griffin in terms of his tendency to get outside of the pocket to get clearer vision, but there's something about the way that Russell does that and his compact frame that always made me think him significantly less an injury risk than Griffin. Yet, the height thing was a risk. History wasn't on his side. We all tend to see new events within the construct of our expectations. I'm not saying I was right. But when I see him hurt his knee to where he can't scramble outside the pocket, and suddenly he's making poor DECISIONS from the pocket (not poor throws, poor decisions), I see it within the context of my original expectations. When I see him willfully prevent the medical staff from even being able to do their jobs evaluating his injury (see James Andrews' accounts of December 9th), I see that within the context of my original expectations. When I see him take a concussion and two knee injuries in his first year in the pros just as he took at least one concussion and a major knee injury back in college, I tend to see that within the context of my original expectations. That said, Robert Griffin has been phenomenally effective as a rookie, which I wouldn't have necessarily expected.
That's not what I saw. From within the pocket he executed a lot of screen passes and easy reads. He had good plays don't get me wrong, but he also had a lot of questionable ones and especially when the knee was bothering him and he wasn't able to scramble outside of the pocket or use his legs as a weapon, suddenly his decision making from in the pocket went to crap. That's what I saw.
Well, I said productive, and I wouldn't put Palmer, Vick or Alex Smith on that list. Even Rivers and Romo are trending way downward. Russell Wilson is smaller than RGIII and also runs. Why is he at less risk? I know you and I usually agree and I think you were inf avor of pursuing Manning, as I was. If you were, the same argument applies. Manning's 3 years, even at this stage, are likely better than all but 2 or 3 QBs over the next 5 years. Therefore, I take the chance at reaching the peak of the mountain, even if my stay there is short. For me, RGIII is the same. I'll take my chances of him getting me to a Super Bowl over a 5 or 6 year carrer over Tannehill's 10 years career. Being a contender for 10 years without a Super Bowl is not my goal. I'd rather win one Super Bowl and then rebuild then be a team who's kind of always around but never breaks through. I don;t know if you're a basketball fan but when the Heat traded for Shaq in 2005 there were many people against breaking up the Wade/Butler/Odom core, and their argument was similar to yours, about Shaq being short term. I think all agree that the championship was worth it, even though the Heat bottomed out a few years later
I think this is the key. I don't necessarily think he can't. But he needs to. And that's the big part of his game that is still unproven to me. And just not worth 2 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder. (Not when Tannehill was, at worst, decent as a rookie and still has all those things that I think a QB needs to succeed moving forward). That's perfectly fair and not at all ridiculous. Time will tell.
Specifically? Better base, quicker more anticipatory decision-making. Uses his blockers better, better decisions on sliding, manipulates his body into contact better
And this goes without saying, but obviously your views are perfectly reasonable as well. I suppose it's just different levels of risk tolerance. Additionally, I'm not sugegsting that I'm upset with Tannehill or that I don't think he's good. I think he is.
Regarding the Wilson/Griffin playing styles. Wilson just appears a lot less risky out there. CK put it into words better than me. Yes, I certainly agreed with you on the Manning deal. But Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning. Our difference comes in the way we see Griffin. I see a very good and dangerous player. But I also see a very unpolished pocket passer still. And until I see that part of his game polish up a little bit, I'll be hesitant to believe he will lead a team to the big game. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind that a healthy Peyton Manning can lead just about any team to the Superbowl.
I remember the discussion after RGIII's final bowl game. I specifically stated that the reason I was afraid of having someone like RGIII was that he was allowing himself to take a lot of punishment in the bowl game unnecessarily. if his game translated to the NFL, he would be an electric player, but without significant change, he would pile up the injuries from the bigger, faster NFL defenses. So far, he's proving me correct. It will be very interesting to see how RGIII does next season when he will likely be slowed down from his knee reconstruction and NFL defenses will have a whole off-season to prepare for him. while he may not drop off precipitously as Cam Newton did this year, I seriously doubt he'll be as electric.
Oh believe me, I'm not the type to assume or suggest that you were. I understand the ability to like Tannehill but like Luck, Griffin, Wilson at this point in their careers more.
This is true Schmoot, I like you wanted to have a plan in place to move and get RG, plan B was Wilson and imo, will be the best option besides Luck, the draft had to offer that day, so, if I could go back, I would go with my plan b, which was to manipulate within the first round, still get him and get an extra pick..It was really ridiculous how I never saw Wilson go any higher than the third round by all the pundits, except for a few on this board. One of the most impressive talents to Wilson's game is his short area quickness and agility, it's exceptional, you never get a clean shot on Wilson, and that's because his explosive athleticism and the angles he takes when he scrambles, creates space, as in no wasted movement, as in extra space to use when he sets up his delivery, it's something he does to counter some of the height hurdles, and it's a beautiful thing.
But do you also think that either Wilson or Griffin have the rookie campaigns they have experienced this season without Lynch or Morris and their respective 1500 yards rushing and dozen TDs each?
You attribute this to exceptional physical skill, where personally I attribute it to exceptional mental faculties. Just my opinion. Obviously he is physically a gifted athlete though.
Can't argue that, it could be that his athleticism is obviously in play, but when he scrambles he intellectually understands angles, and always takes the fastest one, however, there is this thing he does that requires both at the same time, and that is, he gives himself extra room from the defender when he needs to set up..almost like a jump cut from Eddie Lacey.
CB - IMHO Sean Smith has gone from an up and comer to a complete liability. I thought he had the most horrible year I can remember at CB by a Dolphin (Yes, that includes Andre Goodman, Terrell Buckley, and whoever else you'd like to include). I have never seen a CB so reliably out of position as Smith this season! DO NOT OVERPAY THIS GUY! RB - Reggie is a keeper at the right price, but he proved this year that he isn't tough enough to be a every down and distance guy. Miller far-exceeded expectations! DT did well when not injured, but he pretty much stays injured. LOVE THIGPEN! Give the guy some more touches, especially if Reggie leaves. JLane started out on fire for the first quarter, hopefully he can build strength and endurance, he has great hands. WR - Jennings is a must if he is healthy, available, and not looking for crazy money, especially if the Pack win it all. I'd love to see Ireland go after Wallace as well, if available. I have no idea what is coming out of college at WR. DT - I love Starks, but he disappeared in a few games. Odrick moving inside makes sense, and Vernon looks like a legit DE! S - Jones is a beast! I honestly thought Clemons improved a good deal this year, especially tackling! I'd like to see this duo stay together and get more speed on the outside. OT - Keep Jake at the right price. Incentive-laden deal. I'm sure the Pats would love to have him though... TE - Come on! You gotta keep Fasano! He has been steadfast through so much. He ain't a burner, but he is well-rounded, and we have seen how well he fits with a speedier player behind him (Martin, Clay). Keller would be a good pickup. Let him and Clay battle until week 1.
FWIW, someone I know affiliated with the Redskins says that RG3 was playing with torn ligaments for a while. IMO this really is going to turn out to be a huge positive for RG3. The same person that told me about his knee essentially told me "I've never seen an athlete command the type of respect from his teammates that Griffin has from his team".
How is he more prone to knee injuries? His knee will likely be stronger after reconstruction. There shouldn't be any inherent weakness there. He had 2 injuries. The one to his knee was big. An isolated concussion isn't a major injury, and he didn't even miss a full game because of it. Also, with the concussion, it was on a play where he was running toward the sideline to go out of bands and then slipped and fell. For as much as he ran, he really didn't expose himself to many bad hits. He took maybe 3-5 big hits all season.
He's prone to knee injuries because of the way he plays. The offense they're running. 2 ACL injuries in 3 years is cause for concern. 2 knee injuries in his lone year playing in the NFL. If you want to chalk it up to chance or coincidence, then that's fine. Me, I think if he continues down this road in this same type of offense, he'll be lucky if he's still a productive player by his 5th or 6th season. Like I said to schmolioot, time will tell. We have differing opinions here. Neither of which are ridiculous. What I really think is going to happen is that Shannahan will begin to shift this offense a little more away from the read option (because of the injuries) and shift more to conventional offense. And when this happens, I'm eager to see if he is still able to have the same positive impact on the offense as he had this year.
I believe James Andrews already said that RG3 was playing with a torn LCL so I don't think that's a revelation. And I bet playing with it did indeed earn the respect of his teammates. Don't know if it was the smart thing to do though. But Phil Rivers once played with a torn ACL so, there ya go.
Sort of like how it was stronger after the first reconstruction of that same knee a couple years ago?
Yes. He tore his ACL again because he was playing with a torn LCL. Certainly if he's going to play on a torn LCL, then his knee is weaker.
Both of his injuries this season came when he was scrambling on pass plays, not on the read-option. I think what really needs to happen is he needs to learn how to slide better. If he slid on that play that injured his LCL, we aren't even having this conversation. The rules are in place to protect RG3, he just needs to be smart about it.
1. Your first statement is not in any way proven. James Andrews already stated he couldn't tell if Griffin tore his ACL just from scans and would have to find out when he goes in to repair the torn LCL. If there is a new ACL tear there, you don't know whether it happened on December 9th or if it happened last week. Nor does James Andrews. 2. Tearing the LCL is in no way a sign that his knee is stronger for having gone through reconstruction a few years back, in fact just the opposite. 3. Even if he did tear his LCL first and then his ACL, having re-torn the same ACL is pretty strong contra-evidence to your assumption that the first ACL tear made him less prone to more damage. 4. Yatil Green.
Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh DAMN!!!!!!!! Stringer got Yatil Greened!! There's just no coming back from that.
Pretty good prognostication. The only things I would have quibbled with at the time of the original post is Starks and Long. I still hope they sign Starks to a multi-year deal in the coming season. I'll get over Long; I just hope it isn't painful for Tannehill. Also, OT, but I like Jeff Ireland and I like RG3, though I wouldn't have paid that price.
