Austin is a slot receiver. I cannot believe all the hype thats been generated for a slot receiver like Austin. Since NE has had success with Welker and St. Louis with Amendola the friggin talking head experts now put these small receivers up there on the totem pole. IMO this kid Austin while appearing to be a decent player has to prove he can take the smacks he will endure due to the postion he is going to play in the NFL. Real easy to run away from people in the NCAA but its a different story when Safetys and corners in the NFL are much bigger and run faster. Some stupid team is going to draft this kid high I bet. IMO, he is a good mid to late second round pick but we all know he will go higher.
Trading up and for the O line instead of a skill player would be hard to swallow. There is a Long hole now so it wouldn't surprise me.
Because a potentially really good OT is not worth 3 high picks. Jake Long was as sure a bet (maybe more so) as any of the 3 top guys in this draft. Its one thing we paid the top pick, but to pay 3 high picks for potentially the same thing is crazy to me.
I'd be plenty happy if we decided to package our second 2 and 3 to move up into the top 10 to grab one of the top 3 offensive linemen.
Again, I'd pay 3 high picks to get a stand on the table QB, but not an OT. Draft picks are more valuable now than they were before the rookie scale, because you don't have fiscal penalties like you once did. Before, having the first pick was considered a curse.
Ask guys like Jay Cutler and John Skelton how important a good LT is. A great LT keeps your franchise QB up, an average or bad one can get him taken out quickly.
That's not an answer at all. 2 of the best LTs in the game play for Cleveland and Houston....an awful team and an excellent team. None of the guys in this draft are more of a sure thing than Jake Long was coming out.
All media made speculation based on the fact Miami is at 12 and has extra picks. Quite frankly San Fran should be the one they look at. Massive amount of picks for a team that doesn't need many positions. I expect them to be the movers.
A great LT is no guarantee of success, no. But a bad LT is pretty much a guarantee that you aren't going to be successful. If we get one of the top 3 LT's, it doesn't guarantee that Ryan is going to continue to develop, it's no guarantee that Mike Wallace will fit in our system. But not getting a good player to plug that hole all but guarantees that they won't
I'm not saying we can get by with horrible play at LT. I'm saying the difference between good and great LT play is not worth 3 high picks.
ahh yes lets trade up for a tackle so in 3 years when we don't want to pay him money he walks and we do it all over again
It's confusing to me as to why that should be the case though. We just tossed out $100 million in contracts to the WRs unit. To me, it's like O-Line Syndrome. When a team starts investing high in the OL and therefore signaling that it's OK to invest high in multiple OL positions, fans get whipped into a fever that doesn't break until/unless ALL FIVE of the positions on the OL are addressed significantly. Why leave it incomplete? Why stop short of the finish? That's their instinct.
I don't think this is precisely the case for all the Austin apologists (maybe for some - but not for all who like Austin). Perhaps for those who believe Austin "will" be selected vs those who "want" to see him selected. First, some think Austin is simply the best player who would be there. And, that's why they want him. BPA argument. Second, the league is evolving and favoring explosive offensive systems and versatile players - which Austin is and he would radically enhance the options offensively: as a WR, RB, PR/KR, etc. (I don't know that he ultimately fits what Philbin is looking for in his offensive structure - I think he can fit that but I think Philbin has in mind a more structured offense - though that's just based on Green Bay). Third, while I don't think Austin will be drafted by Miami at #12, I do see the reason people want him - the reason I want him - because he adds something that is currently not in the offense (a slot player who has the quickness to get open like Welker but also the explosiveness to go all the way). Basically, Miami added one explosive player (to sum total of zero before). Of course, they may think Hartline will be another Jordy Nelson. But, I don't think it's as simple as a, "we have 3 WR's, all we need is one more good one to complete the 4 WR set."
I disagree. His impact on the game is much higher than the impact a traditional wide receiver makes. From a special teams standpoint, Tavon Austin is a guy who can flip the field for you. The Dolphins do not currently have that explosive return specialist on the team that can basically change the side of the field you are playing on. Tavon Austin brings that ability to the table. From an offensive standpoint, he is a player that changes the way defensive coordinators will play their defense. They have to account for him. He's a player that will keep the defense from sending extra rushers at your quarterback out of the fear that a quick pass to him could very mean a big gain for the offense. You can line him up in the slot, line him up in the backfield, motion him across the formation, utilize him on jet sweep action, and you can probably use him in the running game a bit more than Green Bay used Randall Cobb but not quite as much as Minnesota used Percy Harvin. Tavon Austin will have more impact on the Miami Dolphins than any other player they can draft with the 12th pick. Davone Bess is a solid slot receiver, but he's not a player that is going to change the way the defense plays you. He's a solid RAC guy but not a big play guy. He's not a threat in the running game. He's not going to make defenses avoid blitzing because of the potential big play ability from this position. Let's look at the Green Bay Packers offense and their use of the slot receiver during Joe Philbin's last two years there and this past season when Randall Cobb (a player similar to Austin) played the slot: 2010: Jordy Nelson 129 routes, 27 targets, 24 receptions, 328 yards, 2.54 YPRR, 2 TDs Greg Jennings 200 routes, 35 targets, 22 receptions, 276 yards, 1.38 YPRR, 3 TDs Donald Driver 346 routes, 60 targets, 36 receptions, 430 yards, 1.24 YPRR, 3 TDS 2011: Donald Driver 235 routes, 40 targets, 29 receptions, 340 yards, 1.45 YPRR, 6 TDs Greg Jennings 228 routes, 47 targets, 33 receptions, 429 yards, 1.88 YPRR, 3 TDs Now, let's change the dynamic and put an "X Factor" type player in the slot: 2012: Randall Cobb 356 routes, 81 targets, 63 receptions, 835 yards, 6 TDs, 2.35 YPRR Greg Jennings 145 routes, 33 targets, 21 receptions, 202 yards, 3 TDs, 1.39 YPRR Randall Cobb changed the dynamic of the Packers's slot receiver position.
Really, the only way drafting Tavon Austin does not make sense is if the Dolphins are planning on using Mike Wallace in the slot the way Joe Philbin used Greg Jennings in the slot between 40-50% of the time in Green Bay.
If they draft Austin, they'd be paying their 4th WR over $3M/yr. I'm not sure that in a vacuum makes sense.
There are plenty of reasons and circumstances actually going on that it would need to make sense in, that why even consider if it makes sense in a vacuum or not?
I don't see any obvious reasons why the Miami Dolphins should be paying over $3M to a WR that will play 15% of the team's snaps.
Actually, they are only taking a $1.7 million cap hit on him this year, and his contract will likely be restructured after this season if he isn't released.
If they have identified Lane Johnson as a LT for years to come in this scheme that they are buidling, and if they believe he can be plugged in at LT and play right away, then I highly suspect this will happen. There's no way Ireland and Philbin want to go into this season, a pivotal one in Tannehill's development, with all the new weapons on offense without a LT they all feel confident can play at the NFL level. We lack that on this roster right now, and I think they are going to look at it as he's a must have addition to this offense, with the extra picks, I fully expect them to trade up. I really woudlnt be that disappointed either. Think about it, sure its not sexy, just like the Jake Long pick wasnt to many, but now we think we have the QB, we have WR's, we think we have a running back in Lamar Miller, and are likely going to draft one later in the draft too, you need to protect that QB, so this offense can live up to its potential on paper now. It's the smart pick IMO. Especially with no LT on the roster right now. Martin isn't the answer. IMO he's an average RT (unless he drastically improves this offseason) So, if you can use an extra pick to trade up, get the LT you want, and you know will anchor that line for the next 4-5 years, and be able to plug him in a play him, you do it. You just have to.
A) You've no idea how many snaps he'd play, because you don't really have any idea how he's going to be used. B) We're talking about a player that not only can score form anywhere on the field be it on offense or STs, and from any WR position and even the backfield, but his ability for quick underneath stuff on mismatches can even make our oline look better.
They aren't going to eat $2M in dead money for Brandon Gibson after one season. That doesn't make sense.
The problem with drafting Lane Johnson isn't that it isn't "sexy", nor that it's a Jake Long parallel. The problem is that we would have to trade up to get him. I don't think Lane Johnson is worth missing out on some of the players that will be available with those picks we'd trade away.
Yes, we can get a pretty good idea of how many snaps the 4th WR will get. If they draft Austin, Brandon Gibson isn't seeing more than 15% of the team's snaps.
Not really. There's been plenty of discussion about the staff wanting a fluid WR corp that can be customized per opponent. Mike Wallace is about the only WR you can feel confident will be on the field for a majority of offensive snaps.
I hope to hell we are not drafting a oline in rd 1 because that is why we have been horible on offense for so long. we need a de and a cb more then we do then taking a freaking olineman in rd 1 .
Hartline as well, as much as everyone likes to dislike him for whatever reason. He's a high 4.4 runner who can play all over the field
We'd likely only have to give up one of the seconds to trade up. It's not that costly IMO. Not for a player you can plug and play and not worry about the most important position on the OL for many years again. I know we really need a pass rusher, and a corner too, but I'd still put more emphasis on the LT given the strides we've made (on paper) this offseason. I get what you're saying, and I dont really want to give up the picks either. However, unless they can get a player in the second round that they feel is equivalent to Johnson at LT, whch I dont think they will, they will likely move up to get him if they worry someone else will grab him.
I see this all the time and it shocks me that people simply forget the cost of the #12 pick. So no, you wouldn't need to draft someone as good as Lane Johnson in the 2nd. Youd have to draft someone with #12 and someone at #54, both of which would have to add up to the value of Lane Johnson. You split up your possibility of busting, assuming that there is >50% chance of succeeding if taken in the 1st/2nd rounds.
I think you've got to consider that a "starting" job won't be a 100% snap count. Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline probably won't be on the field more than 80% of snaps even if they're completely healthy. When the Packers were at their prime in terms of wide receiver depth, Greg Jennings was on the field the most and had like 72% snap count. It's possible that Brandon Gibson could get a pretty significant snap count simply through the snaps where either Wallace or Hartline aren't on the field.
What is the highest % of snaps a #4 WR had last season? I just can't see Miami signing Brandon Gibson to that contract when they have interest in drafting Tavon Austin.
You are vastly underestimating the cost of trading up now that there's a rookie cap. Now that teams don't have to pay out tens of millions in guaranteed money, the price tag for trading up to those top picks is higher.
