Pat White Out Weighs Tavon Austin By 10 lbs and..

ha ha. Well if it makes you feel better he'll probably gone before our pick so you can go back to getting used to the idea of life w/o Tavon.

 

If Patterson spent 4 years developing as a WR at Tennessee and had the production to match then I'm sure he would've quelled any concerns and be rated as high or higher than Tavon at the moment.

I know you put a lot of time into this but in all fairness to Tavon I think we should be comparing him to Randall Cobb, as well as Wes Welker's routes b/c the pivot/option route that Wes has made a living on is what Austin runs quite well. His speed-out translates in the NFL, especially in our offense with Wallace on his outside. The shake/jerk routes Austin runs so well will be money. His out route is incredibly tough to cover, even for Kenny Vaccaro. Tavon seems to do a good job finding holes in zone coverage to sit down in. These alone set a strong enough NFL foundation IMO, but there's still so much more to him as far as route running goes.

Personally, I wouldn't be concerned with comparing Tavon to Bess's routes b/c they're two different players who should have some different routes tailored to their specific skill set IMO. Bess's lack of speed has him running a lot of out & in breaking routes and stuff that works back to the QB, but that does little to accentuate Tavon's RAC ability. I'd be disappointed if Tavon were running much of Bess's routes TBH; I'd want him running stuff that allows him to work upfield or into space to provide him opportunities to break plays. Plus he can use his speed to accelerate into open space like on drags, crossers, speed outs, wheels, seam routes, deep posts, post-corners, corners, go's, etc that the pokey Bess is less inclined to execute, whereas Davone working upfield on the perimeter often has to employ back shoulder stuff and nicely timed 20-25 yard fades b/c he doesn't have the speed to continue working the route further upfield to challenge and beat the coverage; ditto for when he's in the slot where he also can't work the field vertically.


[video=youtube;bG20wQoaies]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bG20wQoaies[/video]
At 3:49, here's 1 bread & butter NFL route for Tavon. His jerk route. This one's on 4th & 4 that he not only makes good on but turns it into a 40 yard TD. He obliterates defenders with this route alone and does a great job selling it. You can't put a linebacker on him or they'll get eaten up, so then what's a defensive coordinator to do, switch to nickel in base defense and let our ground game run all over them? Does he bring the FS down and leave Wallace in a more favorable matchup?
Then at 1:15 the pivot/option route he gets the linebacker to slip on. That's cash money. The TD at 3:16 works, too.

The Texas & LSU games alone highlight a handful of routes that translate, and those were vs one of the toughest pass coverage defenses in all of football (2011 LSU) and the best coverage safety the draft has seen in recent years (Vaccaro). All through Tavon's career you can see him beat defenders up with that nasty shake/jerk route, option/pivot, speed out, quick slant, out route, and sitting down in zone. Then sprinkle in all the other aforementioned routes he can run and has run effectively.

 

He's a willing blocker and I've seen him be quite successful at it.

 

Comparing Austin's routes to Davone Bess' routes is extremely apropos. Extremely. Davone Bess occupies the position that Tavon Austin would play in this offense.

The speed out was almost the only route I could find consistently to where I could stack the clips on top of one another show in a very literal way how one player executes it versus how the other.

The rest of the stuff was VERY few and VERY far between.

 

I don't understand why people seem to think Pat White didn't make it in the NFL because of his size and not being able to take the hits. That was not why. He didn't make it because he isn't a QB and can't throw the football at this level. Sure he took a bit hit, but like others mentioned, he was tripped and got hit helmet to helmet. If that happens to Austin he will get hurt. So will just about any other player in the NFL.

 

Here, compare Austin to Randall Cobb.
[video=youtube;rYAd9D3bc3s]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYAd9D3bc3s[/video]

0:30. Working open in zone for 22 yards on 3rd & 7. Light chuck, might as well be a free release. Exactly what Austin does so well and has done all season.
0:54. Handoff for 28 yards. That's a 36 yard TD for Austin who doesn't get caught at the end.
1:21. Handoff for 19 yards. Spread out the field with Cobb as the lone back. Look at all the space Cobb has to work with.
1:47. Slant for a 26 yard TD. Free release. Austin did this all season, too.
2:00. Broken play catch for 24 yards. Cobb uses natural ability to get open. Tavon does this quite well, too.
2:11. 5 yard TD. Another route Austin similarly excels at.
2:24. Broken play for 39 yard TD. Uses speed & natural ability to get behind coverage. Another Austin type play.
2:52. Handoff for 20 yards. Reminiscent of Austin.
3:00. Broken play for 5 yard TD catch. Cobb uses natural ability to work open in the back of the EZ for 5 yard TD.
3:19. Quick slat 13 yard TD, splits defenders and jukes the safety for the score. Play design to get Cobb the ball from the outside. Totally Tavon-esque.
3:27. Stutter & go route for 22 yard TD vs Patrick Peterson. Tavon also does this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=f_qVPnr1Dp8#t=55s
3:39. Corner route for 21 yard TD. 1 on 1 vs safety, free release. Gets on top of him in a hurry. Another route Tavon can kill safeties with.
4:13. Handoff. 14 yard run. Austin could very well have broken this for an 80 yard TD.
4:26. Broken play on 3rd & 12 for 31 yards. Again simply uses natural ability to get open like Tavon routinely does.
4:37. Broken play on 3rd & 11 for 36 yards. Another natural ability play. Probably a 65 yard TD to Tavon who separates from the defense at the end.
4:49. 24 yard out route/speed out that Austin excels at. Free release.
5:16. 30 yard seam route, free release. Exactly what Austin did in college.
5:25. Broken play for 30 yards. Cobb gets behind coverage which Tavon can do as good or better.
5:37. 20 yard TD vs man coverage, no press. Tavon can shake a corner or safety on this out breaking route just as well.
5:46. Easy 32 yards getting upfield into the void.

 

Tavon Austin has never missed a game in his life either at WVU or in high school. He's ALSO NOT A SLOT RECEIVER. Any association with Pat White must be down to the fact that they both have testicles. It kinda stops after that.

 

The Cobb comparison is probably the most appropriate, though there are some differences, imo. I think Austin, due to his size, is going to be more of a horizontal playmaker whereas Cobb has a decent vertical game to go along with his horizontal threat. Cobb is a couple inches taller, has a wider frame, longer arms, and is generally a bigger target. He makes more catches in traffic, has a bigger catch radius, and can use his body to shield guys even in the slightest. I really like Austin, but like with all these college spread WRs, it's hard to project how they'll do with less space.

I look at it this way...From the Cobb vid, I have some difficulty seeing Austin being big enough to make similar catches as: 1:50 (where Cobb shields the DB on his cut with his frame and the DB can't get around), 2:25 (high-pointing over a trailing safety), 3:27 (over-the-shoulder using length and reach against good coverage), 3:44 (shields the first guy, strong enough to take up that space between two defenders), 4:50 (height needed in that smaller window), 5:29 (again, length and reach into a small window), even that last TD at 5:37 is really tight for a guy Austin's size. There will be times when a little additional weight and strength will be important, and certainly times when those extra couple inches of height, frame, and reach will matter a lot, imo.

No question Austin's great between 0-6 yards. My question is whether he has the size to be a target in a somewhat vertical way, even just a little. He'll make most of his living horizontally, imo, like he did at WVU; but I hope he can do enough beyond 10 yards to run the routes Cobb does. I think Cobb is just big and long enough to make these vertical and tight sideline catches...not to mention a QB throwing absolute dimes to the perimeter, just ridiculous accuracy on some of those. But of course we haven't seen a guy just like Austin with his size, hard to project! I'd be excited with him in aqua and orange, no doubt.

 

Huh?

 

You know what I mean. He plays in the slot, he played and will play there but he's far more than that. It's a label I don't feel comfortable with. It's a Greg Cosell thing.

 

Do you mean like these 3 back to back to back catches here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=0AAWC5t0trY#t=383s
...or this one:http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Vkag11ynHws#t=377s
...or this one:http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=rtMnEHUlljw#t=94s
..or this 25 yard corner route that he has the speed to get to w/o the need for an acrobatic catch? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=UNllr8AV1S8#t=174s
or this over the shoulder 25 yard go route TD? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=f_qVPnr1Dp8#t=55s
or this pretty 25 yard fake slant & go route? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=uICLaJ93rpU#t=80s
or how he uses his 4.3 speed to get to this throw in the EZ so he doesn't have to rely on an acrobatic catch? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=3a7DK5HeTRM#t=46s

He's smaller but he's not a weakling.
He easily slips this linebacker's tackle for a 45 yard TD. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bG20wQoaies#t=440s
... and trucks #21 here for the first down on 3rd & 6. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=qyDsYZ0OtxU#t=34s

You're leaving something out here BTW. There will be times where Austin's elite speed will get him within reach of difficult passes that many receivers will have no business getting their hands on, so it works both ways, and some of these catches you're talking about Cobb making won't necessarily have to be acrobatic on Austin's part b/c his speed can close some of that gap. Besides, Austin can play the ball in the air quite well and has a strong vertical when he's moving. He can also use his elite combination of speed & agility to explode out of breaks to create easy separation that Cobb and bigger receivers simply are not on the same level as.
... like on this skinny post TD vs Sio Moore, who should go in the 2nd round. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=jZL3rE19n58#t=176s

Do you mean like the aforementioned ones or this vertical route against Tyrann Mathieu? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bd8Y-PLYi7M#t=203s
... or this pretty little 35 yard TD? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=-dEHB--65kQ#t=494s
... or this 52 yard post-corner TD? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=kpahNSznW7A#t=133s
... or this 39 yard go route? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=X2SCuEVykoE#t=46s
... or this 45 yard post? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=uICLaJ93rpU#t=102s

You don't have to be a big receiver to be a vertical target when you run a 4.3. Did Duper & Clayton have problems at 5'8? Steve Smith? Austin has displayed on numerous occasions the ability to get behind coverage and make plays downfield, including tough catches. How many more plays does this guy have to make downfield before people stop labeling him as just a short pass guy?

 

White never saw the field because he was terrible.

 

I don't know that that's necessarily true. I think Patterson is being held in more favorable light than Austin with all things considered. I say that b/c if the situations were reversed and Patterson were coming off back to back years averaging 108 catches, 1238 yards, and 10 TDs as a senior at Tennessee and Austin had just 1 year of 46 catches, 778 yards, and 5 TDs after JUCO ball, we'd be looking at Patterson as a top 5 pick and Tavon a 2nd rounder at best. That's a much bigger difference than the minimal disparity we currently see between them.

 

The principal argument against Tavon Austin at 12 is not that he is too small, but because he wasn't even the best receiver on his own team

 

No u. Again, Dunn was drafted at 5'9 178, only 4 pounds heavier than Tavon. Not to mention Dunn was a running back who absorbs more punishment than a receiver.

Here's Dunn, all 175-178 pounds of him at FSU. Yup, he looks soooo much bigger than Tavon le'me tell ya. Looks almost like the same friggin person but just a pound or two heavier.
[video=youtube;gRo6TpvsuhI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRo6TpvsuhI[/video]

Why, are they gonna jump 20 feet to break up passes that 4.3 Austin has blown by them on? You don't understand the concept of speed it seems. Hey, you remember how useless on vertical routes Duper, Clayton, and Moore all were at 5'9? Those were some boring days weren't they!

No, Pat White isn't in the league b/c he quit. And Pat White, a QB, with a 4.55 forty and mediocre 4.42 shuttle has nothing to do with Tavon Austin who has elite acceleration, elite speed, elite lateral speed, elite balance, elite agility, elite elusiveness, elite vision, elite reaction skills, and elite stop-start & change-of-direction ability. That's just a dumb comparison. period.

 

I like Tavon Austin as much as the next guy, but Kenny Vaccaro tossing him aside is enjoyable every time (watch the right slot):

[video=youtube_share;yCXyaTPd0Tk]http://youtu.be/yCXyaTPd0Tk[/video]

 

No it's not.... and *in your opinion*.
Wait, so because Bailey wasn't good enough to play the more important Xfactor role in WVU's offense you credit him with being the better receiver simply b/c it afforded him more action in the passing game by default? Not sure I agree with that logic. The NFL will say who the better receiver is which is obviously the 1st rounder Austin; their NFL production will prove the NFL right or wrong.

Sorry but Austin doesn't get penalized just b/c he's a more dynamic player who could execute a role Bailey couldn't dream of and because of it was utilized in more ways than simply catching passes which limited his opportunities to pad receiving stats ala Bailey. Plus Tavon spent most of his final 4 games at running back after the offense hit a rut; meanwhile Bailey didn't have his receiving reps eaten into as he only had 2 rushing attempts compared to Tavon's 72. As it sits Tavon touched the ball 234 times compared to Bailey's 126, so his touches were pretty well maxed out.

Not to mention Bailey benefitted immensely from having Tavon next to him, more so than Tavon benefitted having Bailey on the perimeter. I already tracked and listed a handful of games that showcased extra catches, yards, and TDs Bailey had thanks to Tavon stealing attention. I'd like to see how their stats compare had Tavon spent all his time at flanker rather than his other, more significant role. We might get such an opportunity for fair comparison as there's a decent chance Bailey is drafted by a team intending to play him mostly in the slot.

I'm also surprised if you think Bailey's receiving production would've been the same had he not been afforded one of college football's most explosive players and the game's top slot receiver/xfactor playing next to him. Let that sink in. An undersized, average speed, likely 3rd round receiver had one of college football's ALL TIME MOST EXPLOSIVE players and the draft's best xfactor receiver since Percy Harvin next to him drawing attention as well as freezing defenses every time he went in motion. Otherwise Bailey never puts up better numbers than just about every 1st round receiver ever drafted. NEVER. Let that sink in too. Why did Bailey post one of the best statistical seasons ever for a receiver? Was it b/c of elite talent? If his stats actually match his ability & talent then he'd be a shoe-in top 10 draft pick with the likes of CJ, Green, and Julio.... but he's not, not even close, so clearly the production is viewed as inflated. So what's inflating it? Obviously it's a combination of Holgorsen's system, Tavon Austin, spreading out defenses (especially with Tavon on the field), pre snap motion freezing defenders, and a potential top 10 pick QB who throws a great deep ball. Bailey's gaudier stats didn't match how defenses treated him b/c he didn't receive the extra attention you'd expect of a 25 TD receiver, nor received more attention than Tavon. Explain that, too. How is this possible if, according to you, he's better than the 1st round receiver [Austin]?

 

Who cares if he got tossed when he sustained the block long enough to win.

 

When you take that logic why wasn't James Johnson blowing up huge playing next to one of the greatest college WRs of all time?

Or hell, Percy Harvin- the guy most Austin promoters are saying he is capable of becoming - still outgained his fellow WRs by a significant margin.

I'm sorry but to dismiss Bailey's ability because he plays next to someone that people have fallen obsessive over is just cheap. He's legitimately tough, he gets more YAC than Austin, he catches the ball further from the line of scrimmage, and he's constantly scoring first downs + touchdowns.

It's not like Austin was dominating teams and suddenly they put 3 people on, letting Bailey go nuts. Bailey was a year younger, and he's been outproducing Tavon Austin since his sophomore year.

Bailey also had a much better catch rate.

 

You basing your decision on a 6 second clip is enough for me to say I would rather have a monkey than yourself giving draft advice.

Too bad Tavon got the best of Vaccaro that day catching 10 passes for 102 yards and a TD, converted a few crucial 3rd & long and 4th downs, got behind Vaccaro on a go route that he held Tavon on, beat Vaccaro badly on a seam route that would've been an easy TD had Geno not been sacked, and most importantly won the game.

 

I have no urge to get in a Tavon Austin discussion, argument, pissing match - whatever you want to call it. I know people, not just on this board, have very strong opinions on Tavon (both positive and negative). I just enjoy the clip is all.

 

are we dismissing the types of offenses they play in? I listed a lot more than just having Tavon next to him BTW. There's like a 100 James Johnson's by the way.

Bull****. I'm a fan of Bailey's but his ability is NOT on par with his stats. No way no how, and anyone who thinks otherwise is absolutely loco en cabeza. It's not trashing Bailey; it's a damn fact. I'm not "dismissing" his ability either. He's a 3rd rounder; it's already been dismissed to a degree! What's going on is people like yourself are treating Bailey as if he should be the draft's #1 pick by saying his stats match the talent, which is absurd b/c most 1st round receivers would be lucky to post his stats despite obviously being more talented. But that doesn't happen b/c top talent receivers receive a heck of a lot more attention than Bailey did.
Here, let's compare:
Bailey- 114 catches, 1622 yards, 14.2 avg, 25 TD
Dez- 87 catches, 1480 yards, 17.0 avg, 19 TD
Calvin- 76 catches, 1202 yards, 15.8 avg, 15 TD
Julio- 78 catches, 1133 yards, 14.5 avg, 7 TD
Green- 57 catches, 848 yards, 14.9 avg, 9 TD
Are you telling me Bailey is more talented than those guys and his production fairly matches his talent level?

You're also acting nuts if you think having the most explosive player in the game lined up next to him has zero impact on how defensive coordinators scheme it up play and the coverage he sees, especially when the field's spread out and Austin is motioned pre snap every other play. What the heck do you think they motion him for? Exercise? Gimme a break.

Bailey may have gotten more YAC than Austin but he most certainly is not a better YAC guy than Austin, or else he would've been used in Austin's role.... and he would've averaged more than 14 yards per kickoff on 10 returns. He has more YAC thanks to one 87 yard TD where he was left uncovered b/c the safety was caught peeking at Austin.

Of course Bailey catches the ball further from the line of scrimmage; it's the nature of his position as a perimeter receiver compared to the slot.... but even then, with Tavon's sweeps removed from the stats, his average increases to nearly that of Bailey's. Let's see what Bailey's average is in the NFL when he's spending most of his time in the slot like Austin.

Where do you come up with Stedman "outproducing" Tavon? He's got 2914 yards & 37 TDs vs Tavon's 3300 & 28. The only thing he's done more of is score more TDs, which is a heck of a lot easier on the perimeter when the field is spread out and he's constantly seeing single coverage or even blown coverage and has few defenders to beat compared to Tavon who's in the middle of the field with a defense keying on him from the start and typically with a group of defenders to beat, sometimes an entire damn defense and some players more than once in the same play. Throw Bailey into Tavon's role and tell me he scores more and produces more YAC or RAC.

Too bad Bailey didn't stay for his senior year for you to see what life is like w/o Tavon next to him and a 1st round QB slingin' the ball. Probably why he chose to come out now. Smart.

 

... and I'm just saying- I know it's not pretty but what's it matter if he gets tossed to the side if he holds the block long enough? I'm looking at the 215 pound Vaccaro wondering why he couldn't shed it quicker.

 

Vaccaro is a fine discussion point, I'm not his biggest fan (and I've posted why already). However, this thread is a perfect illustration of why I don't talk about Tavon Austin. I mean I said in another post/thread that Austin was dynamic and fun to watch and that was construed as a backhanded compliment. No thanks.

 

Which demonstrates my point.

 

Oh so you're throwing up a seinfeld gif... Seinfeld. That had a bad ending. Youre saying Austin will have a bad ending? WHY ARE YOU HATING ON TAVON AUSTIN?

Im just kidding guys

 

Besides all the arguments you cited that work against your point (I'll take more yards, YAC, and TDs any day), and the fact that we already have a dangerous receiver llike Mike Wallace to alter defensive schemes, we have even more simple observations.

In the last four games, when Austin played more of a tailback and was less of a threat in the passing game (his receptions were halved), Bailey averaged 10 receptions and 142 yards a game. In the previous 9 games, he averaged 8 receptions and 117 yards.

In other words, Bailey turned it up.

He's the alpha.

 

yeah that sounds a little over the top. He is dynamic and fun to watch.

 

Wow. Over react much???

Listen, we all know your argument for Austin, and that's fine. Some people agree, some don't.

We really won't know for a year or 3.

Now then, don't be surprised if we don't take him, in fact, don't be surprised if he goes 2nd round somewhere. Not saying it will happen, but I have seen much more surprising things happen. You can post and study all the film you want, that will never take away from the fact that his size will indeed limit some of the things he can do. That us a fact. Will it mean he gets hurt? Nobody knows one way or the other. It does mean guys will push and shove him early and often to get to him, that is also a fact. The fact he is so small means guys ate going to be able to jam him at the LOS IF they can get to him of course.

If we take him, I'm good with that........but he honestly would be probably the 7 or 8 option with my 12 pick. That might be different if we didn't just spend avfortune on WR, but then again, I think there are other options at WR that will be a much better fit......but, that is just MHO

 

My point is I don't understand why fans ridiculously insist on using Stedman Bailey's production as a means to downplay Tavon Austin's ability when both played different receiver positions and served two entirely different roles in the offense. Despite being used as a running back for a quarter of the season, Tavon's receiving production was still outstanding in it's own right and stacks up against just about any 1st round receiver and was more productive than AJ Green & Julio Jones.

It's a silly circular argument to use Bailey's stats as a barometer to measure Tavon by b/c that would mean there'd almost never be receivers drafted in the 1st round b/c nearly all of them fail to match 3rd round Stedman's production level.



Hell, DeAndre Hopkins had 82 catches, 1405 yards, 17.1 avg, and 18 TD's so apparently he's a better Clemson receiver, better vertical threat, and better YAC guy than Sammy Watkins whose best year mustered 1219 yards, 14.9 avg, and 12 TDs from 82 catches. That's how ridiculous this is. Watkins would've been a top 10 pick last year as a freshman despite his numbers being lower than his borderline 1st/2nd round counterpart.

 

Percy Harvin's migranes are not a product of his size. Scottie Pippen had migrane problems. So does my mom.

 

Yeah, so does my wife. Truth is, nobody really knows what brings them on, at at least in my wife's case anyways.

 

Congratulations you just drafted Connor Vernon over Cordarrelle Patterson. Super Bowl!

Ahhh no. Baily didn't "turn it up" in the manner you're insinuating, nor is he the Alpha.
In other words, Holgorsen's decision to spark the offense by moving Austin, THE ALPHA, to tailback paid off, and his 426 yard Tecmo Bowl caliber performance vs Oklahoma single-handedly took over that game and left the Sooners and each successive team focused on stopping Tavon first and foremost to prevent being gashed for a bazillion Tavon yards, opening up even greater opportunity for Stedman. If you can get any defensive coordinator or defender that played WVU to say stopping Bailey was a greater priority than Tavon, I'll dress up like a Patriots cheerleader, makeup and all, take a picture, and use it as my avatar for life.

Of course Bailey's production jumped; that's what happens when you turn Tavon into an even greater focal piece and make defenses have to worry even more about him, which supports my point all the further about his impact on Stedman's success, so thank you for bringing it up. However, through the first 9 games, if you account for Bailey's freebie 87 yard TD which Tavon never saw the likes of, they both averaged 107 receiving yards per game.

 

Just to be safe we should draft GardenHead's mom in the 2nd. I think she's got the utility.

 

WTH are you talking about?! So I'm overreacting by agreeing with NUgap that Tavon is indeed dynamic & fun to watch and that interpreting that notion as a backhanded compliment is a little extreme?