It's because Hartline would've posted 115 catches, 1700 yards, and 14 TDs if he had a better QB b/c apparently he's significantly more talented than 1083 yards despite likely being one of if not the lowest paid 1000 yard receiver in the game (out of players who got new contracts after their 1k season, and excluding aged vets). Are you forgetting you're talking about Shouright here who thinks QB is what's holding Bess back from posting a 122 catch, 1569 yard, 9 TD season ala Welker. I like Bess but he isn't even in the same class as Danny Amendola (who is inferior to Welker), and Amendola has had nothing but inconsistent QB play in St Louis, yet that didn't stop NE from inking him to a 5 yr/$28.5M deal, even after coming off injury. I guess this "objective performance data" is privileged information that NFL teams don't have access to, otherwise Welker & Amendola wouldn't be viewed on a higher level than Bess and the players wouldn't vote Welker into the Top 100 while Bess's own team is ready to let him go for a likely 5th rounder.
You really profess to know "why the stats are the way they are," while continuing to hold the position that Welker is the much better downfield/big play receiver? I don't think anybody here has that kind of accurate insight. We should all probably just stop at what the stats say IMO, if we want to be accurate in what we're saying the greatest percentage of the time. When people with our level of football knowledge go beyond the stats and start proposing "why they're the way they are," that's probably going to lead to erroneous beliefs a far greater percentage of the time than if they simply stopped at the objective data and based their beliefs on that alone.
Phins, agree with a lot of what you're saying but I don't see how money fits the debate. Shou, I appreciate you defending Bess. For all, who cares what the stats say? I've always held the belief- watch the game. Don't give me stats. In the great Culpepper debate of heavens remember when, it was stat this and stat that and all I had to post was look at Culpeppers eyes. Look at his posture. Stats don't mean jack. Watch the game. And anyone who is looking knows Welker is leagues above Bess. Yet Bess is not worth the gutterball value some of you are kniffing him with. i don't need stats to tell me that. lol I really don't.
The problem with "just watching the game" is that you're very likely to highlight and remember what's consistent with what you already believe going in, while discounting and forgetting what isn't. For example, some people appear to believe Wes Welker is a much better downfield/big play receiver than Davone Bess, which I suspect is based on their highlighting and remembering plays Welker has made that are consistent with that belief, while failing to consider the objective data that says, overall, they're very similar in that regard, and that the percentage of such plays Welker has made over Bess is non-significant. But then of course we can always get grandiose and profess to have some keen insight into why the stats "are the way they are," rather than recognizing we've fallen victim to confirmation bias. Seen it happen here many a time.
I keep trying to tell people that Revis is the best corner to come out since deon sanders, he now gets paid almost twice as much as the next best corner, but folks keep telling me he gets help and that the island is a myth..lol
I agree, if you don't get an Austin or Eiffert, you better make damn sure you get a Swope or a Bailey.. Maybe bailey was the reason why Ireland visited and scout WV twice..that would make a lot of folks happy.
Then they haven't played or haven't been watching long enough to see the small things. They really are the most important things. Example: The first time I saw Ted Ginn step out of bounce before trying for more yards. I knew we were in trouble. My buddy told me, "Dude, it's just one play." I told him, "Dude, we're in trouble." WR step out all of the time. But tf was the manner and situation. I don't know how to explain it. You know it when you see it and I know I can't be the only one with that gift (not reallya gift but I exaggerate to clarify). But I understand what you mean and I think it is very accurate that the brain will hold on to the highlight.
The same thing can be done with stats. After all, the average person has one testicle. WR X can catch 1TD in every 60 passes and WR Y has only caught 1 TD in 100 passes. Stats tell us, WR X is better, but WR Y still has 20 passes to catch another TD for them to be the same. Simple fact of the matter is, that tape, stats and measurables (to lesser degree) are all needed to tell the story of a player, and anyone who acts like tape is better than stats or stats is better than tape are just biased agenda mongers. You like numbers so you tout stats, other like watching tape, so they tout that. They are not mutually exclusive and need to be combined to tell the whole story.
The one play thing is fine for forming a hypothesis to be either confirmed or refuted by a larger sample of data, but when that larger sample is compiled, we should be pretty much ready to ****-can whatever prior belief we may have had that isn't consistent with it.
Correction. It took WR X less passes than Y to catch a TD. That's all you can get from that stat, Fin. Who was passing the ball? How many passes did X's team attempt as opposed to Y's? How many times did X's team reach the red zone as opposed to Y? Which receiver drew more double-coverages? How much clock time did X's team have the ball as opposed to Y's? EDIT: It goes on and on. This is my frustration with stats. I understand your point of view and I most certainly agree that absolutely both are not mutually exclusive. Hell, I watch a WR and say, "Damn, runs routes to perfection. What soft hands. What a cut! Did he just out-run a saftey with a perfect angle? He ran all the way across the field to make that block? Oh yeah." Then I go look at how many touchdowns he scored in his senior year.
Nope. If WR Y catches another TD by 120 catches, he too averages a TD every 60 catches. That is why stats don't tell the whole story.
Mark Twain on extrapolation: "There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact."
Now who can we possibly get to replace Davone Bess? Wait a seccond.. Are you aroused? Because I know I am!
Not going to feel sleepy any time soon. The only thing that sucks about the draft- the anticipation. Exciting? Sure. But more nerve-wrecking for me than anything else. Just get here already.
Some interesting comments in here. To those who said a 5th for Bess. Your fired. Don't quit your day jobs as your all crap at GM'ing. Bess is worth a 4th and probably a late rounder. He's a sure handed durable possession WR who can play the slot or the outside (as he has done here at least 1/3rd of the time). If, and, if there are multiple teams involved he could net a late 3rd...but that's an outside shot. Right now I will say we net a 4 and a 6. I could see Jeff really wanting that missing 6th.
Santonio Holmes went for a 4th, Brandon Lloyd went for a 4th (I think), once upon a time Randy Moss went for a 4th. These are/were all better receivers than Davone Bess, as much I I like him. I would be shocked if you got a straight-up 4th for him, let alone a 4th and a 6th. His principle value lies in a tradeup. You can go higher in round 3, perhaps even the backend of round 2 from 3a, and get whatever. I would imagine Swopes or Bailey are more than adequate replacement prospects.
Way to cherry pick the WR's with 'issues'. Hell in our GM league this year GIK got #50 for Bess in exchange for swapping double 4th's (109&110 for 120,127). Bess also provides value as a returner also. No way he goes for just a 5th.
FYI. Browns fans are quite happy with the idea of a 4th for Bess. They are desperate for a dependable WR.
I'm guessing it was both of them. Austin is less likely now but Ireland had no way of knowing he would land Mike Wallace in FA at the time he was visiting W. Va. Whether it's Bailey, Swope, or someone else, I think he adds a WR at some point before Saturday to round out the corps, especially if Bess is traded.
I feel your pain I would rather trade Hartline but if they draft eifert which seems like the pick if hes there bess is most likely a goner.
We aren't getting 3rd round value out of Bess. Cleveland and Miami had a couple of talks/trade agreements that has led me to believe that they give Bess a 4th round value.
I don't think trading Bess has any bearing on taking Austin, it may however indicate we are going after Bailey or Swope.
Sadly I remember that one. I had high hopes that year.......for about two games. Welker can get off the line regardless of who is covering him. He has so many different releases that in conjunction w/ Brady he is essentially unstopable.
I think Swope could be a really interesting pickup later on. Curious about the chemistry between he and Tannehill and if what they had will carry over.
Doesn't make much sense to me to essentially swap Bess for Swope or Bailey. Those two may or may not pan out and may even get drafted ahead of the pick we're targeting them with. It makes more sense to to me to trade Bess away because we're planning to draft Austin or Eifert in round one.
