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NFL Fan Draft Psychology 101

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Apr 27, 2013.

  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Of course every fan's goal (or fantasy?) is to haul in a large number of future stars in every draft. Unfortunately this is far from the reality as it occurs.

    The reality is that a very small percentage of players drafted beyond about the middle of the second round go on to contribute significantly in the NFL. Sure there are gems drafted later, but they represent the very small exception to the rule.

    In the first and second rounds, we're typically dealing with players the scouts and draftniks have agreed upon as likely to contribute significantly in the NFL. There is typically little variation among scouts and draftniks in their appraisals of these players. You won't find, for example, a scout who believes Dion Jordan will be an all-pro, and another scout who thinks he won't be a starter. There isn't that much variation among their appraisals of these players when we're talking about surefire good players at the NFL level.

    That variation tends to increase tremendously as we approach and enter the third round, where players begin to be chosen who some believe have starter or better potential, and others believe have more marginal talent.

    This phenomenon interacts with NFL fanbases who have typically acquired only two new and exciting players (their first- and second-round picks) by that time in the draft. NFL fans don't enter drafts wanting only two new and exciting players. We want more than that.

    So what happens as the third and fourth rounds ensue is that fans target specific remaining players they believe are going to be those unlikely gems, those exceptions to the rule noted above. What is forgotten is that the draft at that point has become much more of a crapshoot than in the previous two rounds. These "later gems" are fans' solution to that. They allow fans to believe they can still come out of the draft with a big ol' haul of players who will improve their team.

    What this translates to is the overestimation of the importance of the middle rounds, and an overestimation of the differences among the players picked in that range. For example, Terron Armstead, taken two spots above Dallas Thomas, is perhaps seen as a "much better" pick. What isn't appreciated at that point is the significantly wider variation in the appraisals of these players taken at this point, as well as the fact that these players overall are unlikely to contribute significantly in the NFL.

    In other words, the difference between Terron Armstead and Dallas Thomas, in terms of their quality and their likelihood of contributing significantly in the NFL, is likely meaningless, though that perceived "difference" is put on steroids by player-hungry fans who have overestimated these differences as part of the fantasy that their team is going to come out of the draft with a great haul of players.

    Expect this phenomenon to continue today with even greater strength as we enter the fourth round, due to the fact that disappointment with earlier picks has likely set in among a good segment of the fans, who then want these later round players (these perceived "gems") to compensate for their let down. For example, the fourth round may be viewed as a success only if the third round can be "corrected" with the drafting of Ryan Swope.

    Embedded in that perception, however, while simultaneously ignored, is that Ryan Swope was passed on by every team in the league at least several times. So we're dealing with a player who, in fantasy, is viewed as the savior for the third round, but in reality is very unlikely to make a significant contribution at the NFL level. As was noted above, there is also considerably wider variation in the appraisals of Ryan Swope among scouts and other experts, which further dilutes his standing as a surefire prospect. Yet we persist in the fantasy that he will be our "gem."

    This is what we're all susceptible to as we drown ourselves in the three days of the year known as the NFL draft. It's largely a fantasy situation that's spurred by a huge industry of scouts, draftniks, TV pundits, YouTube clips, the NFL combine, and message boards, and what's forgotten as we collectively ride this rollercoaster is that the typical results of the draft for a given team, in terms of future improvement, are relatively meager.

    But enjoy! ;)
     
  2. chillininfl328

    chillininfl328 New Member

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    Idk what point you're trying to make about this so called 'phenomenon'. Nobody is reaching for more stars because we aren't happy with our current haul or whatever psychological nonsense you're talking about. We want Swope because he runs a 4.34 has a repoir with Tanne and had a massive statistical season with him in his last year at A&M. People want more playmakers and it has nothing to do with the picks in rnds 1 2 and 3 besides the fact that they change what positions were targeting. Nobody is making these picks out to be saviors. In fact, people are nowhere near as dull as you make us out to be. The fact that we would rather take a risk on a boom or bust guy than a solid but no chance of ever being great guy is purely because we don't take any risk associated with a pick busting.

    Just my opinion.
     
  3. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    In other words, leave Ireland alone.
     
  4. Drowning

    Drowning ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH

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    But tell me how you really feel.
     
  5. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Sure they are. Half of the population has below-average intelligence.
     
  6. Drowning

    Drowning ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH

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    That is so perprosstrus.
     
  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Shou, you know better. "below avg" is a truism, however that does not mean "functional morons" they merely are below the avg of collective intelligence testing scores.

    As for the draft, it's simply uncertainty being projected into a process that offers no certainty other than a name of a 21 or 22 yr old's name on a TV screen.

    This causes angst.
     
  8. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    True, but in terms of recognizing the dynamics at play I outlined in the original post, they might as well be functional morons. Few if any of the people with an IQ between 70 and 100 are recognizing all that. Therefore they're likely "dull" at least in this regard, in contrast to what was said in the post I answered, and they therefore approach the draft in perhaps that "dull" sort of manner. Of course that doesn't mean they're bad people, however.
     
  9. chillininfl328

    chillininfl328 New Member

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    I Look at it from completely the opposite side. Insofar as intelligence lets you make quicker decisions and possibly gain some more depth on the players techniques etc I feel as if it has little to no bearing on the ability to pick mid to late round draft selections. Because of the overall uncertainty of those prospects it usually ends up being more football knowledge(nothing to do with iq) and luck.

    I don't think it takes an understanding of the dynamics you outlined in the original post because to be honest I don't think they impact as many people as you believe. Most people just want certain prospects for one reason or another but even idiots know that late round picks are a crapshoot.

    Ryan Swope may end up being a top 5 receiver in the league none of us know. If he does however it doesn't mean that the fans clamoring for him were right and he was always going to be a savior it just means that he panned out. IT also doesn't mean the gm's were wrong for passing up for him. They have an entirely different consequence form taking a player with concussion history.
     
  10. Drowning

    Drowning ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH

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    Why do I suddenly feel as though I need Euclidean proofs to watch the draft? I failed geometry.

    It's a lottery. We get to side on a ticket. It's entertainment. Nothing more. Side with a ticket and it gets picked, you feel good, especially this late in the draft wherein there lies a "considerably wider variation in the appraisals". Side with a ticket, it gets picked, goes on to do well; you feel even better. Side with a ticket, it gets picked, goes on to do well and become a star; you're the man. Added bonus- phenomenal for our beloved Dolphins.

    I appreciate you Shou but IMO, that was a long way to go to describe common knowledge.

    Pick a ticket. Any ticket. Promote it with a passion. What's the harm? You might hit the jackpot for us.
     
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  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The issue, in a nutshell, is that players like Dallas Thomas or Ryan Swope are perceived to have far more meaning than they likely do, simply because, at the time we're making these evaluations and determining the meaning they have to us, we're embedded in a fantasy in which we gather a relatively large number of players who will make a significant contribution to bettering the team, when in reality that's very unlikely to happen in any draft for any team.

    In essence a single player or a single draft pick is determined to have far more value than they do in reality, and our appraisals of them, in terms of the future contribution to the team they're likely to make, are given a far greater precision than is warranted by the situation.
     
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  12. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You've essentially echoed my original post, but all of that stands in contrast to believing, for example, that Terron Armstead is a "much better" pick than Dallas Thomas, or that Ryan Swope is an absolute essential to compensate for the third round "blunders." Those sorts of beliefs don't jibe with the more relaxed "lottery" and "entertainment" views of the draft, which probably comport much better with reality than the frenzied appraisals of picks and players beyond the second round.

    In other words, it may be "common human knowledge" that all of this has very little meaning or significance beyond the second round, but that isn't the reality we wrap ourselves into as we watch this thing unfold and allow the fantasy to take us over.
     
  13. Drowning

    Drowning ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH

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    Side with Shou here. You have 32 war rooms at the summit of football knowledge (in theory anyway) and they have all deemed these prospects to be on par with mediocrity or worse. These next few rounds are much more of a crapshoot. How keenly can you study a group of prospects that have a grade of 4-7 when you have to be sure on those you're measuring at 1-3? When you take into account that roster depth probably becomes more of a factor at this juncture, the crapshoot effect widens.

    My sentiments exactly.
     
  14. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I did a statistical analysis once of where you would find your future HOFers in the draft. And basically the top 5 is where you want to be, As an aside #4 overall historically has better record than #3 overall. After that it is a steady downhill slope. And once you get past the 3rd round your chance of finding a pro-bowl calibre player is blind luck, at least from a statistical viewpoint.

    So for all the comments about finding great physical specimens or whatever, day 3 of the draft is about finding role fillers and rotation depth. For late round HOF quality gems the phins have found Jake Scott and Zach Thomas in ~50 years of drafting, and that is much higher than average in the NFL.

    If we can find one adequate starter or significant backup on day 3 then that will be a good draft by historical standards.
     
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  15. Drowning

    Drowning ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH

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    Agreed. But that's the jug. Why else watch the draft? For all intensive purposes, the draft is freagin boring, man. I don't care how much of a manly, macho, football fanatic one proclaims to be. The draft is freagin boring. And the coverage in these later round is atrocious. Perhaps catching a gem here and there of critique from the panel is worth it. Ridiculing them when possible certainly is. IMO, the race is much more bearable when you stake a horse.
     
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  16. chillininfl328

    chillininfl328 New Member

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    ^^^ This guy gets it
     
  17. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Sure, but the "finish line" in the horserace is three years from now, and at this point in the draft, no single player is likely to win (all are likely to contribute insignifcantly).

    So sure, stake the horse, but don't pretend the finish line is today, and don't pretend your team is being run by buffoons when your horse isn't chosen. If you're taking the relaxed, realistic approach and choosing a horse only to make it interesting, then react with the same relaxation and disinterest when your horse isn't selected.
     
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  18. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I think you wrote a long post that could be summarized as 'people like to be right'
     
  19. Drowning

    Drowning ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH

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    Whatever, Shou. All I know is that if we pass on Jackson Rice. I'm gonna be pissed. :wink2:
     
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  20. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    There ya go. ;)
     
  21. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Nice effort but Cam Wake, Reshad Jones, & Brian Hartline say hello.
    So does Lamar Miller (4th round)
    Brent Grimes (undrafted)
    Dannell Ellerbe (undrafted)
    Paul Soliai (4th)
    Philip Wheeler (nearly a 4th rounder)
    Chris Clemons (6th)
    .... and that's just starters from our team.

    Don't come in here all uppity-like telling us we live in a fantasy. These guys happen, and there's not a damn thing wrong with hoping that our pulls of the slot in these later rounds ends in a furry of ringing bells and whistles like another 4th round Brandon Marshall, an Arian Foster, or a Victor Cruz.
    or Pro Bowlers Aaron Hernandez, Geno Atkins, Kam Chancellor, Elvis Dumervil, Henry Melton, Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans, Antonio Brown, Dashon Goldson, Jermon Bushrod, Owen Daniels, Kyle Williams, Courtland Finnegan, Antoine Bethea, Tramon Williams, Miles Austin. And that's just since 2006. That's part of the joy of this process, hoping the unlikely becomes the likely and surprises us all.
     
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  22. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    All exceptions to the rule.

    Not a thing wrong with it. But thinking you know the players who will be, and believing the team was wrong for not selecting them, is pure fantasy at this point in the draft.
     
  23. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Shou sure does like to sell his intelligence....lol. Why does every post seem to be a not so disguised slam?
     
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  24. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    Because that's the way the Shou man rolls..
     
  25. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    "Man who likes to self promote his intellect, is clearly lacking in many other areas in life"

    -Finomenal
     
  26. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    Nice...

    Phins just Gillislee.

    He's gonna be way better than Reggie Bush, Ireland you are a GENUIS sir.
     
  27. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    Sturgis, YES!!!

    He will be Sooo much better than Carpenter.
     
  28. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    if you guys would read what he says and not how he says it, you would actually get some decent psychological insight.
     
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  29. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Sounds like "psychological incite" is exactly what I've done. :lol: ;)
     
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  30. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    see listen to what he says, not how he says it.
     
  31. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    "He that hath knowledge spareth his words: and a man of understanding is of an excellent spirit"

    So then he should just say it......
     
  32. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    sure.
     
  33. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    What these folks don't seem to realize is that they're making me and what I do a topic for conversation, which is giving me a level of importance I truly don't deserve. ;)
     
  34. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    I love ya, if you ever move to Columbus you and I should get an apartment together. We can talk about the significance of Good Wil Hunting and the anger of orphaned Boston kids. And how Urban Meyer has mindfu**ed, every other coach in the big ten.

    It's a date sunshine.
     
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  35. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Shou....I actually enjoy your thoughts and posts.....I just dont dig the subtle Im smarter then you comments that seem to decorate your posts....
     
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  36. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    That's the fun part.
     
  37. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE Swope is gone...frowns
     
  38. Califin

    Califin Well-Known Member

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    I think it would be interesting to learn just how far Ireland, as GM, and current prognostigator of our contributing talent base, goes out of his way to ensuring the majority of his "ill advised" draft picks, last long enough to contribute, even to some meager degree?
    Enough simply to get noticed by the fan base, of at least making a few plays during the regular season?

    Since he ultimately remains responsible for finding yet another to fill the position, it could be in his best interests to at least stall, until his former lackluster pick, either produces enough to justify Ireland's ability to continue selecting them for us, or fails miserably, in which case the primary interest of fans, then turns to merely seeing the player gone.

    I'm sure every GM is guilty of this to some degree, but it wouldn't surprise me if Ireland had highly exceptional control over this during Sparano's tenure, however that things have changed under Philbin.
     
  39. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I was born on the OSU campus, but now that I've achieved a better climate, I won't be coming back. ;)
     
  40. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You "achieved" a better climate? Do you work in H.A.A.R.P.?

    /not serious: we use our foil for cooking
     

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