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NFL Fan Draft Psychology 101

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Apr 27, 2013.

  1. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    whoa
     
  2. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    coming back, wore out welcome... tomato, tamato
     
  3. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    I was born around the clintonville area (5min from campus) so this begs the question of wich schools you attended that elevated this uncanny aptitude. I ask because I have a young child who I'm banking on being a genuis like you.
     
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  4. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Born in Columbus like the rest of my family (all Buckeyes!), moved to Miami, where all the geniuses are from, at age two, and grew up there. ;)
     
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  5. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    The pendulum is now officially swinging the other way. If GMs had such specialized and important knowledge, there would never be first round busts and undrafted all-pros. The reality is that owners spend millions and millions on a front office, and the results are modestly better than buying a draft guide at a supermarket and, in some cases, much worse. It's a tremendous waste of money and, in my opinion, one reason why we bother with Wonderlic tests, cone drills, whore mom interviews, etc. It allows very expensive front offices to justify their existence.

    I have no inclination to do this, but it would be interesting to compare Ireland's drafts against Kiper's or Mayock's or our very own gurus' board over the years. These are the people who overwhelmingly influence fan perceptions here. We know who Ireland took, compare it to the BPA on these boards (for the system at the time) and tell me who is doing a better job. Heck, why scout Utah? Just take all Florida prospects and see how it works out. If I am correct, I suspect you'll find the gulf between the pros and others is not so profound. If I'm wrong, it will be obvious.
     
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  6. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    IMO there are likely a whole host of intra-team, inter-team, college player, salary cap, contract, locker room dynamics, and other variables that at play for the folks getting paid to do this, that the folks like us and Mayock et al. are oblivious to and could never possibly know, that make your proposition preposterous.

    What would be interesting IMO is to see just how poor a job anyone would do of tracking all those variables and applying them to the draft if he wasn't in the role of GM of a team with some experience and know-how at the position.
     
  7. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    I know it's Sunday and it's fashionable to preach and finger point, but you are welcome do the work and we can quibble about the merits of JPP versus Odrick and Misi.

    Otherwise this has a very Ken O'Brien vs Dan Marino feel. aka. the Jets' front office must know something we fans don't know. In fact, the Jets are a convenient example of the opposite being the case, where the fans are brighter than the front office for decades on end.
     
  8. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You're proposing an "experiment" that can't be done. No one can possibly know all the variables at play for the NFL GM.
     
  9. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I guess that's a common reaction to having a deep emotional investment in something one has no control over: thinking one could do a better job of controlling it if given the chance.

    Go to the stadium and cheer. That's about the best you can do.
     
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  10. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    Of course we can't, which is why you take the BPA on whomever's board and we quibble about it. Are you saying there is some magical calculus that we can now justify to explain taking Misi over Gronkowski or Ginn rather than Willis? There isn't.
     
  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    What I'm saying is that we're incapable of knowing all the effects on a team of taking one player over another. There is a lot more going on than how they end up playing down the road. You can't use that as your sole method of evaluation.
     
  12. Which makes the premisis of your OP impossible to prove.
     
  13. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    I am amused that the end result of your critical thinking exercise is the suggestion we stop thinking critically entirely.

    The "best" I can do, coincidentally, is refuse to support a losing product with my time or dollars. Multiplied by tens of thousands, that has a far greater impact on the team.
     
  14. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Think critically, and humbly. :)
     
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  15. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The primary premise of the original post is that players taken beyond about the middle of the second round infrequently contribute significantly in the NFL, which is readily demonstrable. The rest of the post deals with how that particular fact interacts with fans who are watching the draft and are embedded in a fantasy that their team will buck that trend and find the exceptions to the rule, and that they themselves (the fans) know who those players are in advance, on draft day, well before anybody knows how they will perform.
     
  16. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And that's the other of your two choices, in terms of exercising control. In other words, you're fairly limited.
     
  17. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I think its somewhere in between Chilli... For example, I never thought Swope was a target for us...1) injury history, 2) WR was addressed adequately in FA 3) whatever advantage he may have coming from TA&M and his connection with Tanny only gives him a better shot to make this team, this year, not that he's a stud or whatever... That said, what gets fans goat mostly is that there are about 20-40 players at the top of the draft that are difference makers and naturally we all want all of them...the reality is that I'm happy with Jordan and Taylor...after that, it's just gravy...they may or may not make a difference...but hopefully will....

    I can tell you, not being a draftnik, that my opinion usually relies on our guys here (Thank you very much CK, Boomer, Con, KB, Deej, etc) and the talking heads of the network....Guys like Mayock say "Dion Jordan fits Miami to a tee" and my ears perk up... So the phenomenon, as Shou so eloquently puts it, is a reality for lots of us...

    I'm not disappointed that we didn't land Jordan, Austin, Eiffert, Hayden and Fisher all in this draft, but I'm glad for what we got...

    In this specific draft, I suppose the only negative is that we didn't get to address the OT hole....other than that, it's a draft with hope and likely good things to come...

    Bottom line is that over-reacting to the specifics of this draft, as Shou was saying, is a bit counter-productive and a figment of our exaggerated expectations...
     
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  18. inFINSible

    inFINSible Bad ministrator

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    Personally, I think it's a good lesson for all to absorb. The butthurt in this thread comes from people who don't want to be told or accept the fact that they really don't know a whole lot about things they pretend to know a whole lot about. And that's not an insult as much as it is a fact. There are 32 GMs in the NFL who would give their left nut to hit on HALF their picks...My point is, if more people would accept this lesson and adopt some of the humility that shouright, in his somewhat antagonistic way, is trying to bestow, there would be a lot less conflict between posters and more acceptance of each other's opinions.
     
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  19. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    Part of this is a figment of the original argument. Shou is trying to describe some widespread fan psychosis were we really thought Ryan Swope (or whomever else) was a savior type of player on Day 3. I can't remember anyone making that argument. There is only one prospect that enjoyed anything approaching that sort of widespread opinion here and that was Tavon Austin and Jeff Ireland agreed! I didn't think there was a tremendous divide between Austin and Swope, but I also didn't think either walked on water at the same time.

    What people are really surprised about is that we basically drafted to improve the 7th ranked defense (in points allowed) rather than the 27th ranked offense (in points scored).
     
  20. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    The draft, the draft process, the YouTube watching and forming opinions is for entertainment value.

    Same reason when I read a Mayock Mock or a CK breakdown, not because I think they are right..but because to me it is interesting and entertaining. Ofcourse it's an I exact science, and many many highly paid scouts or GMs whiff every year.
     
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  21. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Feel free to worship at the alter of the great shouright. Not interested myself.
     
  22. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Will you spoon together at night?
     
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  23. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    There is no actual psychological insight to be gained other than noting that this is a football message board, people come here to voice opinions, occasionally those opinions reach consensus, and often those opinions make zero difference to what the team does. Sometimes those opinions are about Day 3 draft picks.

    There is really nothing more to it than that. That's is no insight at all to be found here. This is a hobby for 99.9% of us.
     
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  24. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The original post is not about behavior on NFL message boards, per se. It's about what NFL fans in general tend to do on days two and three of the draft. The message board may give voice to their experience, but the post wasn't about message board dynamics, per se. It was about fan dynamics.
     
  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A lot of members here have taught me things about life, perspective, compassion, why can't we just appreciate each others quirks and intelligence, And let them express freely without judgement, I enjoy a lot of your quirky intelligent Pov's, it's what makes this board great, I'm not taking it personally, if so does that make me dumb?, is he smarter than me because I can't see what it is he's trying to do?..I don't think so, intelligence comes in many forms, I think he has a great imagination and respect how his mind works, I think he is intelligent, so I don't mind reading and exercising my brain..

    What I get out of his post is that harsh criticism gets hard to be justified because all these kids haven't played on the big stage yet, so we might as well give our guys a legit chance, try to find things about their skillset that will help us, and try to create a better positive vibe for the culture to build...now once we see their *** play, then i will criticize and compare to who I would of drafted..

    We drafted a lot of payers that create a balanced team with a dominating defense...ok, I'm down with that because of the talents of Dion jordan, or as Nate burleson said 100 times in TV last week..Das..wusss...up!!!!... Followed by an awkward brother handshake, and a couple of nervous pimp sniffs.
     
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  26. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    If you studied statistics, you'd know this assumption of samples is hardly ever true.

    And what does IQ have to do with being dull? I've known many people I would call unintelligent that were far from dull.
     
  27. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    It's true when it comes to IQ. But no, not every variable is distributed in that way.

    Sounds like semantics. I just don't think we should assume everybody is as sharp as a tack and therefore insusceptible to the dynamics in the original post, which was the original context for the "dull" comment. Someone in essence said the dynamics I outlined in the original post don't apply to people because they aren't that dull. My response was that about half the population (or more) could be considered dull enough to be susceptible to them. Again, that doesn't make them bad people, however.
     

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