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What is the realistic expectation for 2013?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Pauly, May 4, 2013.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just to go through what has happened during the off season so far, and to try to break down different things into their base elements.

    1) Coaching continuity. I'm drinking the Philbin kool-aid far more than I did with Saban and Sparano. Mainly because there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involved with the first year records of Sparano and Saban, but the solid statistics show that based on yards gained and TO ratios indicate we should have been 8-8 or 9-7, so our W-L record was slightly worse than what we could have been. The biggest thing I am liking about Philbin is that there seems to be genuine player development happening. A lot of the younger members of the team were playing better ball in the last 4 games compared to the first 4 games. Solid schemes, no WTF playcalling, player development are all signs that Philbin will continue to improve this team.
    Overall: Improved

    2) Passing game. This rests a lot on Tannehill's shoulders. The worry is that there is some flaw in hs game that opposing DCs have decoded with a year's worth of film on him. Having said that I think Tannehill is the real deal, and while we lost 2-3 games last year due to him being a rookie and havie rookie brain explosions, I think that with the way he continually improved that there might be one game next year we lose due to his inexperience. Our WR core is much improved, and when you go through the highlights of last year there were so many opportunities for TDs than were wasted because Hartline or Bess fell over en extending to make the catch that Mike Wallace will catch in stride. I think the TE situation is basically a wash with last year. The OL situation worries me but with Tannehill's quick trigger I don't think that it will make a huge difference in the passing game.
    Overall: Improved

    3) Running Game. I go the feeling that Reggie Bush was a poor fit for Philbin's schemes. I just got the impression that Philbin prefers some more power between the tackles. Having said that the running game is the biggest question mark for this team in 2013. Yes Lamar Miller and Jonas Grey are talented, yes Thomas can contribute as a change of pace back, but we have no proven reliable performer at RB, so we are hoping that Miller, Grey or Gillislee can be a true NFL quality RB. Also the OL is being rebuilt. Whilst we can hope that new talent and coaching can help we have no proof it will be better.
    Overall: Very questionable. I think it would be optimistic to expect our running game to be better than it was last year. I think our running game will be like our passing game last year, a year to develop the talent we hope we have.

    3) Run Defence. This should be an absolute strength of the team. Our front 7 is younger, more talented and well coached. I expect Dion Jordan to be a better run defender than pass rusher as a rookie. The LB carousel didn't give us more talent, but did make us younger.
    Overall: Improved

    4) Pass Defence. Well we really can't expect to get any worse. I do not expect Dion Jordan to be a QB seeking sack missile, I do expect that his presence opposite Cam Wake should distract a little bit of attention from Cam Wake and give him more opportunities. I get the vibe that Vontae Davis and Sean Smith were not the schematically correct players for the defence Philbin wants to run, so I am not happy losing both of them I can understands why they were let go and new players brought in. Our secondary will need experience playing with each other before they step up to higher levels.
    Overall: A learning year, no real expectation of significant improvement this year. Maybe some incremental improvement up to maybe 20 overall.

    5) Schedule. Whilst The Jets and Bills seem to be doing the take one step back so they can take two steps forward next year thing making our division easier, the rest of the schedule looks to be a lot tougher than what we faced last year.
    Overall: It will be harder to win games.

    6) Home ground advantage. The fan base seems to be getting more energised with a young QB to get behind and a team that is reported as having a good off season. If we get off to a fast start I think we could start seeing full and loud home games by mid way through the season, but until we become a consistent winner the fan base will be fickle.
    Overall: Some improvement.

    Based on the above:
    - We have good reasons to expect an improved record
    - The questions about our ground attack and aerial defence are too big to expect us to be a SB contender. And if the risks taking by the FO/coaching staff fail miserably we could be worse.
    - Our schedule will be the biggest brake on our progress in the W-L column.

    I think we can expect to be better than .500 but not significantly so. Which puts as as a 9-7 or 10-6 team in the hunt for a wildcard.
    The Downside risks are bigger than the upsides, by that I mean it is more likely than some wheels will fall off and find us 7-9 again rather than everything coming together and us going 13-3 and getting to the SB.

    Our goal for 2013 is building to be a contender in 2014 onwards.
     
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  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just remember bro, in all liklihood were gonna put the youngest roster in the league on the field come September..

    To think that the youngest team in the league has playoffs or bust expectations doesn't sound quite right to me...8 and 8 or 9 and 7 would make me happy.
     
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  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Improvement, consistancy, and building towards being a real contender from 2014 onward. For a record, I think that somewhere between 8-8 and & 10-6 should be expected. I think that the team should be in the second group in the AFC, behind New England, Baltimore, Houston and Denver. Fighting with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati & Indianapolis for the two wildcard spots.
     
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  4. PhinishLine

    PhinishLine Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This. I see improvement on last year, but still fall short of the Playoffs. 8-8/9-7
     
  5. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    8-8
     
  6. JDelenne

    JDelenne Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Superbowl
     
  7. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Not saying playoffs or busts, more that we should be contending for a wild card spot in the last months of the season. If we don't get there I won't be ashamed of the team.

    I am saying that I don't realistically see us going 13-3 wining the division and locking in a first round bye. It could happen if all the "if"s fall in our favour, but at the same time I think it is more likely if something happens that is unexpected it is that some of our 'if's backfire and we wind up 6-10 or 7-9.

    The difference between 7-9 or 9-7 was paper thin last year. With the development of players and talent added/lost ledger appearing to be positive I think there are good ground to think 9-7 or 10-6 should be the realistic goal for the year.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    10-6 is my guess right now. I think we'll get one of the wildcards and lose in the first round.
     
  9. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    From your list, the running game worries me most. But anyway...

    We get 4 practically freebie games in our division, which is kinda nice - though watching the Jets and Bills play football and, like, try to complete forward passes should be excruciating to see and a crime to the sport. I really want to split with the Pats, getting us 5 division wins. That's a pretty nice number to build from. We can manage 4, maybe 5 others on top of those, imo: 9-7, could see 10-6. Playing in a division that's complete sh*t will be a bummer to watch (I hated our schedule last year, played some real bum QBs which is just not fun for fans, imo), but hopefully the record will be solid as a result and we can go up against some strong competition with legit QBs. Compete!
     
  10. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The team must improve its record. No more 7-9. I don't care if we are the youngest team. At some point, you have to win. If that doesn't happen, Ireland has to go - that'd be 4 straight losing seasons.
     
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  11. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    could go all the way
    R.T. is the real deal
     
  12. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    And the world's longest rebuilding job goes on.. Give me a break.
     
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  13. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    I think general expectation will be 11-5 or 10-6 with a wild card appearance.
    I think that 10-6 is our ceiling, with us winning a few close ones that we maybe should't, but ultimately I don't think we make it. First team out, IMO.
    I hope I am wrong here.
     
  14. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    We have had a great offseason but we still don't have a superstar player at any position. I think Mike Wallace is a game breaker but Tannehill has got to become an all star so to speak. Injuries of course do happen as do sophmore slumps and free agent busts so i'm not predicting anything. I've seen this promise before and i've seen it go down the tubes really fast. In a way our team reminds me very much of the Atlanta Falcons/Baltimore Ravens and we could very well be headed that way which would make us super bowl contenders. We could also become the biggest flop of 2013 if we aren't careful. The future is unknown right now. I certainly hope we are good and everyone especially Tannehill is improved. I think 75% of that hinges of how good he (RT) is. If he struggles or gets injured or we play the QB marry-go-round this team is 6-10, 7-9 again. If he's awesome and improved like Mike Sherman says he will be then this team is a playoff team this year and a big time contender the following 2/3 years and maybe more.
     
  15. Not So Fast

    Not So Fast Well-Known Member

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    It's already been 4 straight losing seasons for the record. And Ireland has done his job properly this offseason. it's up to the coaches and the players to put in the work to be a quality team.
     
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  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It's nice to think of these things in a general way but you have to look at things more specifically. The Dolphins could have improved but if the schedule got harder or the teams they face also improved, then what?

    With two rookie quarterbacks seemingly about to take the helm in Buffalo and New York, one would think those teams got weaker. But that is not an easy call because the outgoing quarterbacks were Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez, and we still went 2-2 against those teams. I'm not comfortable saying any better than 3-1 against them.

    The Patriots return nearly all of their starters. For all the talk about the Dolphins being young, they're young too. Ridley and Vereen go from 2nd year to 3rd year players. Boldin becomes a 2nd year player. That's a strong backfield. Chandler Jones was a beast and he goes into his 2nd year. They picked up Marcus Benard who is one of my favorite underrated pass rushers right up with Antwan Barnes. Hightower goes into his 2nd year. Dennard goes into his 2nd year. Dowling goes into his 3rd year. Aqib Talib and Devin McCourty still there. Tavon Wilson goes into his 2nd year. They picked up Adrian Wilson which was a heck of a signing in my opinion. The offensive line is basically the same. I get that everyone thinks they lose Wes Welker and suddenly they suck but I don't see it that way. They did a good job replacing him with Danny Amendola, I just don't see how they got weaker and if anything I think they might've gotten stronger with the aging of young players, much as you could argue we have. I'm not sure I see what if anything has upset the balance between us that resulted in yet another 0-2 effort against the Patriots. We're still at a point where 1-1 is the best we hope for.

    We get to play Cleveland. That should be a win. Pittsburgh? They had some real issues in 2012 but they mostly centered around Big Ben being hurt and then not being completely healthy and at his best when he came back. The most optimistic way to view it is acknowledging they were 7-6 with Big Ben at the helm and we were 7-9, but they lose Mike Wallace who comes to our side and so this looks like a tossup. The Bengals were a 10-6 team and they added Giovani Bernard to the backfield along with Tyler Eifert to the pass catchers unit. Guys like Sanu and Jones get a year older. Offensive line still in tact. Offense looks better to my eyes. The defense all returns and more young guys like the defensive tackles they drafted last year and Vontaze Burfict just get a year better. Good luck with this game but I'm penciling a loss. And the Super Bowl champ Ravens? Them too.

    What I'm having trouble with, when it comes to Indy, is they were 11-5 and beat us a year ago, and yeah we've gotten better...but haven't they also? I'm comfortable pegging a win between the Colts and Chargers, but only one...not a sweep of the two.

    Atlanta to me is a loss even if it is at home. I think we get a win somewhere between the Bucs and Saints games, most likely the Bucs IMO. Only one though because I don't think we beat Brees in NOR. Carolina is a tossup.

    I come up with a 7.5 win total.

    That's 1.0 wins higher than a pretty experienced Vegas insider has it for the Dolphins. He released that just before the draft. Perhaps Dion Jordan buys us that one more win.
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I thought I said 8 and 8 or 9 and 7..that improves the record like you want..
     
  18. 17isOurSavior

    17isOurSavior New Member

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    10-6 or 11-5 with Tannehill having a pro bowl caliber year.
     
  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The Detroit Lions have that distinction...a top 10 draft pick 8 out of 10 years from 2002-2012? :tongue2:

    We're not THAT bad, but we do need to start showing some results.
     
  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    How we perform this year is going to depend mainly on two factors-

    How the offensive line holds up?
    Does Ryan Tannehill avoid the dreaded "Sophomore Jinx"?

    First thing's first, the offensive line.
    I love...LOVE football. In my opinion I feel it is the only TRUE team sport. No one player can do his job unless the other 10 players are doing their job. I'm one of the few (that I can truly recall) that adamantly states the root of your offense is in your offensive line. If the offensive line doesn't run block and open up holes, your running back can't run the ball. If the offensive line doesn't pass block, the quarterback will never get a pass off and the back of his jersey is going to be grass stained all day long. I'm feeling pretty god after the draft and what moves we made during free agency, but with the deal going south on Albert's trade from the Chiefs, I still worry about the offensive line.

    Secondly, the "Sophomore Jinx"
    Some may attribute this to just pure superstition and there is absolutely no merit in it but then again, NFL players are pretty superstitious themselves. Quarterbacks who have successful rookie seasons often fall prey to the jinx...Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford in recent years all having successful rookie seasons only to fall prey to the dreaded jinx.

    Will Ryan Tannehill fall prey as well? It's difficult to say. While the Dolphins did not amass a winning record last season (and for that matter, neither did some of the above listed quarterbacks), Tannehill did break the team record for completion yards by a rookie quarterback. While I'm confident the team has brought in some weapons that will help Tannehill's passing game, the question will become, can he handle the pressure of higher expectations?

    Based on our schedule this season, I expect us to secure wins against Cleveland, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Carolina, and San Diego. We'll split one game each with Buffalo and the Patriots while sweeping the Jets. They're in total disarray. Our record against the NFC South SUCKS so I'm expecting only one win there against Carolina...MAYBE Tampa Bay (which I hope to be at THAT game!)

    Bottom line; 9-7 with the potential for 10-6
     
  21. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Between the Colts, Ravens, Bengals and Steelers, I see two wins. One win vs Cleveland. 3 wins within the division. A win vs SD. Wins vs Carolina and Tampa Bay.

    I have us at 9 wins. The division as always will be important. Sweep one of NY/Buffalo and take one from NE and I think we're a playoff team.
     
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  22. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    The energy that I get from this team is like that which I got from the Dolphins going into Shula's second year.

    We have a coaching staff that teaches, something that has been lacking for many years, and a talent level that is spread thruout the team. That said I'm not willing to yet say what our record will be this early in the process.

    We are being built to win our division and the Pats hold on it is coming to an end IMV. Will we split, lose both, or sweep the Pats? IMV it comes down to a little luck and the bounce of the ball. Tom Brady, for all the hipe, did not look to be the world beater of years past in 2012. His play at the end of the year reminded me of his play when he first came back off injury .... very twitchy the pressure is getting to him easier than before.

    As for the Jets and Bills, given the QB's on both squads, at this time they look like easy wins to me. Given that the Jets will possibly have a HCing change going into 2014 I se all the above as a golden opportunity for the Dolphins to get a choke hold on the AFC East for several many years.

    My desire is to see a leap in improvement .... that will make me happy. If Tannehill falters then its back to the drawing board. There was a reason for that 3 year clause in his contract, lets hope we don't have to use it.
     
  23. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Will you start paying attention to what's happening with the team during your break?
     
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  24. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I realistically expect 9-7. 10 wins if everyone stays healthy and the Oline builds continuity.
    THe playoff question is just as much about the other teams:
    - Will Indy have a sophomore slump? I half expect them to. They were inspired a heckuva lot by Pagano last season. I don't think they make the playoffs.
    - Pittsburgh still has a ton of holes, don't see them making the playoffs either.
    - New England, Houston, Denver
    - IMO, our main competition comes down to Cincy, Baltimore and Kansas CIty.
    - Kansas City has the new coach which typically gives a team a surge, so I see them getting a wild card
    - Baltimore I think has NY Giants syndrome - they go mediocre after winning it all. too many holes and they need a year for their draft picks to fill those holes on defense. I think Cincy wins the division.

    - leaves the final playoff spot open, I think we either grab it or stand at #7 in the AFC this season.
     
  25. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    I just love people that put everything on Ireland. They make me glad that there are some people somewhere in this world who actually have complete focus on some thing, even it is, as in this case, abysmally wrong, shortsighted, and lacking in perspicacity.

    But, I understand that. Some folk just need to have someone about whom they can gripe, complain, vetch, whine, curse, or scream when things don't 'go their way.' That alleviates from them the pain of reality and actually having to think about and through problems. I wish the world where that simplistic. It would make my job so much easier. Unfortunately, reality is a messy thing - full of unpredictable, unfortunate, ill-timed, and sometimes completely irrational events. To simplify an aggregation of activities (plays) over a series of events (games) with a multitude of individual inputs (players) and come up with a singular root cause for the success or failure of the enterprise is absurdly inadequate. But, if it suffices to assuage one's ire - so be it. After all, this is not going to find a cure for cancer, stop the conflict in the Middle East, or determine the fate of humanity.

    Scream Away!!!

    Oh, BTW: 9-7, 10-6 is probably tops.
    8-8 against this schedule would be nominal.
     
  26. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    Should have had results a long time ago.
     
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  27. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    You're right, we've been great over the last ten years.. Lol
     
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  28. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    Another no accountability for Ireland poster.
     
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  29. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    I will say it again. When he coaches the players and calls the plays in addition to trying to find the players - then you can place all the blame on him. To paraphrase Quitcells - Even with the best ingredients, a bad cook can make something inedible! There is more than enough fault for the previous five years to go around. It is just too convenient to focus on one person than to really think!
     
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  30. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    nowhere in his post did he ever say "no accountability". while your kind of posts were at least part of a relevant discussion the last few seasons, I find it hard to believe there are still whiners who can't stop *****in about Ireland even after the very optimistic offseason we just had. Here's an idea, let go of the crappy past and at least try to come off the porch rocking chair and enjoy what seems to be a fresh start with the youngest team in the league.
     
  31. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    using rationale thought for an argument is more than some people can handle.
     
  32. Shamboubou

    Shamboubou Well-Known Member

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    Am I the only one who thinks the schedule is a crappy excuse. You need to be able to beat good teams to do anything in this league. I hope this team can do it.
     
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  33. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    If Tannehill makes the step we compete for a division title. We have the best defense in the conference and the ability to get pressure wich is how we USED to kick Brady's *** in Miami, yearly.
     
  34. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    If you're saying everyone should be accountable, then I agree with you, we've had coaching changes, they've been held accountable, but yet , no change in GM. Doesn't seem like the same set of standards apply to both positions.
     
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  35. ASOT

    ASOT New Member

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    with the crappy schedule we got from the Dolphin hating NFL, I think 9-7 is the best we'll do, and if we get 7-9 or worse, some heads need to roll. This is, of course barring some horrific injuries.
     
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  36. ASOT

    ASOT New Member

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    make no mistake, this is a make or break season for Ross and Ireland. If we fail to show marked improvement, barring horrific injuries to key personnel, that will be it for Ireland. Ross will have no choice, as he can't be seen to continue to accept mediocrity. What little season ticket holders he has left, yes those blind homer types, will even begin to question whether or not Ireland has it or not. He'll have had 6 free agencies, 6 drafts, 3 each on his own (no Parcells at all), and if it still looks like the same old, same old, then Ross will have to realize that its the person picking the players and not the players fault.
     
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  37. Win the games your suppose to win and some of the ones your not.
     
  38. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Hear your points but adding to the longest ever stretch of no playoffs won't make me happy . Playoffs this year or disapointment.
     
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  39. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    Spot on.
     
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  40. Perfectville_USA

    Perfectville_USA Mr Perfect

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    Out team speed is way improved, we also have better player's to fit Philbin offense. But we still have a long way to go. I think year 3 of Philbin/ Tannehill will be the charm. I also love how we added playmakers on both sides of the ball.
     

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