You'll probably find a 2011 game on YouTube I forget the opponent and the 2012 game against Syracuse. Honestly it doesn't matter what game, at least from 2012 it doesn't. He's a consistent performer. Against Rutgers I watched him beat the pants off Antwan Lowery, NFL Draft Scout's #7 rated incoming senior at Guard. Got a sack on him. I'm watching him face guys like Zack Martin on Notre Dame right now. Martin is NDS's #2 ranked senior Guard but played left tackle in the game. Also of course Braxston Cave. Just took on a double team from Mike Golic Jr. and Christian Lombard (NDS: #14 junior OT). Straight up double to try and dig him out of the hole on an off tackle play on 2nd & 5, and he gets pushed no more than 2 or 3 yards off the ball but keeps his shoulders square the whole time and helps tackle the ball carrier for a 3 yard gain. That's when you know you can toss the weight listing out the window. Whatever the weight listing is, you're not going to use it against him because he's so unnaturally strong.
Donald definitely found his groove vs Syracuse as the game wore on. Would like to see him use his height more consistently to his advantage to win the leverage battle, as well as keep his feet churning better through engagement, but seems like an interesting prospect with some potential to work with. Certainly worth following this year.
Manziel is going to be pumped up by the media so much this season that it will be nauseating. The fact is, he's not even a good NFL prospect at this point. He's a great college player, but what he does well on the field is not something that translates to this position in the NFL. Based on what I saw this past year when watching film of Ryan Swope, Johnny Manziel lacks an NFL arm and struggles to see the field without running around.
Jackson Jeffcoat should be higher (though I don't know enough about a lot of the other athletes so I could be wrong... but if there are truly 37 college players who have ghigher prospects as an NFL pro than Jackson Jeffcoat then this will be the greatest draft in history)
I'm not sure there's ever been a name that sounds more like it should be for a Civil War era senator or general, then Jackson Jeffcoat.
I'm more inclined to say Jeffcoat should rate lower than higher, at the moment. He needs development.
Plus there's quite a slew of talented pass rushers to compete with. Gonna be some 1st round talent pass rushers falling to the 2nd round this year by sheer happenstance. This crop is drool-worthy, and that's just out of who's currently apparent. Personally, my top priority would be finding a talented, athletic, closed end, which is why Tuitt is atop my list. There's a few shorter guys I like but I'd prefer to have Tuitt's length.
Yep, I like Tuitt quite a bit myself. If Dion is truly gonna be playing LB I think Tuitt would be the perfect fit at CE.
Was looking at the Kiper list posted and say Purifoy at 10, but no Roberson in the top 50 at all. This led me to looking at both of them (how spoiled I got by DraftBreakdown), and led to some thoughts. Roberson: -Statistically a much better CB, only beat on 36% of passes which is in elite territory. Also 14 passes defensed - so good ball skills -Felt like he was getting burned deep a bit - Hunter two or three times in the Tenn game. The numbers bear this out, the average play Roberson was burned on was 15.3 yards compared to an average of about 11-12 for other good CBs. Have to wonder/worry about deep speed, which is one of the things that led to Banks dropping (14.7 yards/ burn). -Nice awareness and plays on the ball at times, good coverage getting his head around and breaking up a fade to 6'5" Mike Evans in the A&M game. Had another really nice pass breakup where he drove on Hunter and broke the pass up (to have it flukily completed to Zach Rogers) Purifoy: -Beat on 55% of passes, which is pretty bad. Of course, it was only his first year starting, so the possibility of improvement is real. -Every site/ report on him loves to talk about his quickness and ability to play multiple positions - which is obvious to see on film. -Questioning his ball skills. The little blurb on NFLDraftScout mentioned his great ability to play the ball, but he only had 4 passes defensed and I didn't see anything really impressive in this department during the Tenn or A&M games. Thought he would have gotten one after Cordarrelle Patterson ran the same slant 5 times on him (10 targets to Patterson, 7 completions), but nothing. -Neither CB was particularly strong against the run statistically or on film. I know the projection for Purifoy at 10, was just that - a projection. However, when you compare him to some of the things I've looked at for Verrett or Ekpre-Olomu or even Roby, Dennard, or Exum, I don't see his play meriting number 10. All that being said, I have no clue which one is better right now. Curious to see both their play next season.
Yeah at this point I'm not sure why both Verrett and Ekpre-Olumu aren't rated above Purifoy and Roby. And Roberson should probably be there too. I think Verrett is the best.
May have been discussed already but who is a better prospect ATM, Jordan or Barr. And what would to other have to do to get to that level. I have barely seen Barr but it doesn't seem like he can drop back and cover like Jordan can
Personally, I'd want Barr utilized in something like Seattle's Lion role (2012) where you line him up wide (at right end in Seattle's D) and let him spend most of his time getting after the QB but occasionally dropping into coverage. Jordan on the other hand I'd use as more of a hybrid linebacker, spending more time dropping in coverage and playing off the line in base defense and relegating most of his pass rush time to nickel. In Miami, I'd ideally want Barr gaining a little weight (up to 255'ish) and playing him in Wake's position at end opposite Jordan b/c of his potential as an elite NFL edge rusher, so that's how I'd want him developed first and foremost. If Stephon Tuitt weren't an option in this draft class and we didn't already have Cam, I'd be salivating over moving up for Barr to compliment Dion.
Some positions I've done some work on already... Best Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville Runner(s) Up: Tajh Boyd, Clemson Favorite Wildcard(s): Tyler Russell, Mississippi State Best Running Back: Zurlon Tipton, Central Michigan Runner(s) Up: Lache Seastrunk, Baylor Favorite Wildcard(s): Antonio Andrews, Western Kentucky Best Wide Receiver: Marqise Lee, USC Runner(s) Up: Mike Evans, Texas A&M / Sammy Watkins, Clemson Favorite Wildcard(s): Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss Best Pass Rusher: Jadaveon Clowney, South Carolina Runner(s) Up: Anthony Barr, UCLA / Kyle Van Noy, BYU Favorite Wildcard(s): James Gayle, Virginia Tech / Walker May, Vanderbilt Best Defensive Tackle: Aaron Donald, Pitt Runner(s) Up: Timmy Jernigan, Florida State Favorite Wildcard(s): Will Sutton, Arizona State
Just finished watching 6 Teddy Bridgewater games. I'll sum him up first, followed by some notes. Right now has a ways to go to be an NFL QB; is a project. I came away with more question marks than answers. Currently a 3rd/4th round prospect with 1st round potential if he can answer most of those questions, but ultimately I feel he shouldn't be drafted higher than Colin Kaepernick. At this point I'd say he's more likely to bust than break out, but he has plenty of eligibility left to change that as the talent is there. -Can he throw the deep ball? Doesn't seem like it. Doesn't seem to want to either. -80% of his game seemed to involve easy short passes and easy reads (makes his completion % deceptively high). -great but not elite pocket mobility; unfortunately isn't consistent in effectively utilizing that ability to his advantage. -good but not great pocket awareness. -not enough NFL caliber throws attempted/completed. -40% of his pass attempts were 6 yards and under. -displays nice touch on intermediate passes. -good short range accuracy on the run. -needs to reduce how often throws off back foot. -can get ancy under pressure and drops his eyes down too quickly to underneath targets. -looks to run too quickly at times rather than buying time for a receiver to break open. -wayyyy too often looks for the quick/underneath throw rather than waiting for plays/routes to develop (even w/o pressure in his face). -doesn't seem to trust his deep ball. -mechanics need some work. Too often throws from an off balance base. Needs to follow through better. Opens hips & shoulders too quickly leaving arm trailing (leading to some overthrows). Poor deep ball mechanics. Needs to tighten up his delivery. Good flick of the wrists & velocity on short to intermediate throws but employs a similar delivery on downfield throws that costs him accuracy and velocity. -missed a handful of open downfield targets while opting instead for underneath stuff, regardless of pressure. -questionable field vision. This needs to be answered to earn a 1st round grade. -questionable QB instincts & decision making for the next level. Also needs to be answered to earn a high grade. -inconsistent on 20+ yards. -seems like he got rattled vs Rutgers -Questionable decision making vs Cincy: It's the 4th quarter. 3rd & 26 on own 28. Score tied 31-31. 0:13 to play. He needs to either move the ball downfield for the 1st or pick up enough for a winning FG. Instead he quickly opts for the underneath receiver. ???? -plays mostly in a 15 yard box. -reached the point where I was yelling obscenities every time he hastily opted for the underneath throw. Clemson bias aside, Tajh Boyd is leaps and bounds ahead of Bridgewater. Tajh is NFL ready; cant say the same for Teddy. The questions Teddy still needs to answer, Tajh already has. Tajh has better mechanics, better QB feet, quicker release, better instincts, better decision maker, superior down field thrower, better pocket presence, better understanding of the game, more consistent in using his mobility to evade pressure, is as good or better of a thrower on the run, better at keeping his eyes downfield and buying time rather than looking to run or settling for the short dump off, gives plays time to develop, and doesn't get rattled. That doesn't mean Teddy can't make up this ground or even surpass Tajh, only that at the moment he hasn't. I know for a fact Tajh has NFL caliber intelligence, maturity, leadership, clutch play ability, and competitive drive & determination. Interestingly, a few weeks ago Tajh decked himself out in red, threw on a hat & shades, and drove with a couple players to scout UGA's spring game incognito-style. There's not a harder worker in college football right now. What he has going on between his ears (including his heart & maturity) is nothing short of top notch.
Re. Teddy Bridgewater - I'm going to try to say this as respectfully as possible, but I disagree with a decent amount of your points especially about ball location. Here are Boyd and Bridgewater's throw charts from 2012: Bridgewater: Screen: 14.21% 1-5 Yards: 35.7% 6-15 Yards: 29% 16+ Yards: 20.9% Boyd: Screen: 23.61% 1-5 Yards: 26% 6-15 Yards: 26.8% 16+ Yards: 23.34% Bridgewater threw 35% in the 1-5 yard zone, which is higher than Boyd's 26%, however, it's made up for by the extra 9% of screens that Boyd threw. In fact, both QBs threw 5+ yards 50% of the time - roughly average for the BCS. Here are their accuracy at each level: Bridgewater: 1-5 Yards: 79% 6-15 Yards: 70.5% (better than any QB in this past class) 16+ Yards: 45.7% Boyd: 1-5 Yards: 71.4% 6-15 Yards: 60.4% 16+ Yards: 48.9% Boyd's deep ball of 49% is extremely impressive, but the 60.4% in the intermediate zone is on the low end of what you want to see. In my opinion, the intermediate zone is the most important. It's where you convert third downs, where you make clutch throws, and hit NFL routes. Bridgewater's deep ball at 45.7% would hold up to any QB in this past class and his 70.5% intermediate throws are superb, NFL caliber. If you want to nitpick, you might want to see the deep ball get better - but by no means is 45.7% even remotely bad. I put this chart up in the Club, but I think it's appropriate here: This compares Bridgewater to some of the top prospects in the past drafts. One important thing to note about Bridgewater is that he only throws into coverage 5.97% of the time. To me, you'd like a college QB to be under 6% for that metric (that's around where Manning, Brady, and Rodgers all hover), Boyd is at 8.2%. Furthermore, Bridgewater's "clutch" situation completion %s against the blitz, on 3rd down, and in the red zone match up with top QBs from the past drafts. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Boyd was lacking in these. I'm not saying Tajh is bad, there are things to like. However, I wouldn't put Boyd ahead of Bridgewater, as a sophomore Bridgewater compares on tape and with statistics to the elite QBs from the past drafts. We'll see how this year goes though.
I'm going to have to amend my DTs top tier to include Daniel McCullers. He's not just a size listing on a piece of paper. That is one mammoth of a man who is actually ridiculously athletic for his size. God don't make 'em like that very often.
Speaking of small school RBs, I mentioned him on Twitter - but I'm interested in Jahwan Edwards from Ball State. He'll be a junior this year, so I doubt he'll come out, but I think he's intriguing. He's 5'11", 230 and if you go back and look at Michael Turner at NIU, they're built very similarly. I think their running styles are similar as well. Edwards bounces off of defenders to keep 3 yard runs alive for 10 yards. Despite being 230, he had something like 19 runs longer than 15 yards, ranking in the top 20 of the entire NCAA last year. Had 1410 total yards, 6 YPC. I tried to cut up two games worth of clips for him, but failed - so here are Youtube links to some interesting plays: Western Michigan: http://youtu.be/sfbRSs0lz4I?t=2m43s http://youtu.be/sfbRSs0lz4I?t=1m57s http://youtu.be/sfbRSs0lz4I?t=9s Clemson: http://youtu.be/ohut0PIgwFI?t=40m46s http://youtu.be/ohut0PIgwFI?t=39m30s (bad camera angle, but nice run) UCF: http://youtu.be/sfcpLGMVSto?t=31m21s Some interesting stats to back him up, one of the least stuffed (stopped behind or 1-2 yards from the LOS) in the NCAA. Lot of explosive plays, good in short yardage and clutch situations. In his three games against BCS teams (Clemson, USF, Indiana), 59% of his yardage came after contact which would be the highest in three years of RB classes I've looked at. Don't know if he'll garner any acclaim, but I find him interesting at least.
WOW, thanks for talking down to me. You seem to be pompously saying this as if these stats you've presented are the end all be all in assessing Bridgewater and comparing him to Tajh. But they are throw charts alright. Throw 'em right out the window with how poorly constructed they are. Screens are called plays so those don't "make up" for anything; Tajh didn't choose to dump the ball off behind the LOS on those plays. To break it down properly, by factoring out the screens, throws in the 1-5 yard range represent a whopping 41.6% of Teddy's passes, which supports what my eyes told me about him all too often choosing to opt for the underneath throw, significantly more than Tajh. Not to mention, if that high of a percentage was in the 1-5 yard range then logic says a chunk of his 6-15 yard attempts are likely closer to that 1-5 yard range as well, which is sensible b/c an underneath throw is still an underneath throw even though this statistical analysis divides them between two categories (1-5 yards and 6-15 yards). Teddy seemed to benefit from a lot of receiver RAC as well. That alone is inconclusive of anything meaningful. Good thing for Teddy those 6 & 7 yarders count as much toward "intermediate accuracy" in this category as 12-15 yarders do, eh. I'll say this as respectfully as possible, I've watched every snap Boyd has taken the past 2 years. He does NOT throw as much underneath stuff (say 10 yards and less) as Bridgewater, and Bridgewater doesn't throw close to as many deep passes as Tajh. Not.even.close. Teddy has a ton of maturing to do to reach Boyd's level, the stuff you see with your actual eyes rather than some ill sorted stats. C'mon, these stats are inherently flawed from the get go. Seriously, who breaks down yardages like this? When is 6 yards considered intermediate and 16 yards considered deep? The "6-15 yard attempts" does nothing to discern between the low & high end of that range, but it needs to. For instance, if Tajh completes more throws on the high end of that spectrum while Teddy's bulk is on the low end, then there's obviously a difference between the two QBs in that regard. Equally, the "16+ yard attempts" don't discern between the low and high end of that spectrum either, which is a serious flaw. How many of those Bridgewater throws were 30+ yards? Very few.... and even fewer completed. There's obviously a significant difference between intermediate 16-20 yard throws and ones 30-55 yards downfield, but this cursory statistical analysis couldn't tell you that. According to this statistical breakdown, an easier 20 yard seam throw to an open receiver is lumped in with 35+ yard fades down the sideline. This entire statistical analysis should be scrapped; it's poorly done. The yardage needs to be broken down further if you want to offer up any promising form of comparison b/c this stuff doesn't cut it, sorry. Show me something like 1-7 yards; 8-12; 13-20; 21-30; 31-40; 41+. You only have to watch the tape to see how many more downfield throws than Bridgewater Boyd attempts... and its my opinion you'd be quite wise to not infer 3rd down conversions/clutch play as something Tajh is lacking in. Again, since when is a 16 yard throw considered a deep ball? What that 45.7% doesn't tell you is how few actual deep throws (35+ yarders) Teddy attempted which would've decreased that 45.7% had he done so. Lucky for Boyd he has the accuracy, velocity, and ball placement to afford to throw into coverage 8.2% of the time and have it work for him. Luck was at 8.66% I see. Boyd's tape suggests otherwise.... and I don't think Teddy playing in the Big East hurts his stats. I disagree with that (when factoring in Teddy has 2 years of starting experience). From my perspective the kid is still in diapers as far as the NFL goes, and at this point I'm not ready to say he should be coming out next year.
I'm hesitant on McCullers. I get the impression (at the moment at least) that technically sound NFL linemen might eat him up, but the draft isn't tomorrow so I'd say he's certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Honestly, the reason I put "I'm going to try to say this as respectfully as possible" is because I was trying not to come off badly so as not to have a fight about this. I'm sorry if you mistook it for something else. I hope it wasn't misconstrued as me saying - Tajh Boyd = Bad, Teddy Bridgewater = Good. I don't think I framed it that way. I simply think that Bridgewater is better. I believe that's a fair opinion to have - I have my reasons, statistics and film alike. There's not one definitive answer to this question, and I don't think I claimed there was. I like both players a lot and I'm rooting for Tajh and Clemson. A few notes: -I agree on the depths, if I had my druthers it would be 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, 20+ - unfortunately NFL teams have consulted with the guys I work with and the system presented above is what they have determined is most workable for them. C'est la vie. -When I say "throw into coverage", I should have defined it better. Those throws are ones where the ball is deflected, intercepted or otherwise incomplete due to coverage. Plays where the WR dropped it or the coverage was tight doesn't count in that metric. Thus, Boyd had more throws into coverage than Bridgewater - it's not a matter of how his ball placement is, it's just the facts. -Since we're talking a lot about how far they threw the ball - the average distance of a Bridgewater completion was 7.042 yards and Boyd: 7.066 yards. That's sans YAC, literally where the WR caught the ball. Now what you've mentioned is true, Boyd throws more screens so the yards/ completion will be shortened. Boyd threw 34 more screen completions than Bridgewater. If he were to gain an average of 5 yards on those passes, his YPC would bump up to 7.6. Better than Bridgewater to be sure, but not drastic I would say. Still higher though. -Presented without comment, here are completion percentages for some key stats. Red Zone Comp %: Bridgewater: 64.1%, Boyd: 59%. Third Down Comp%: Bridgewater: 65.5%, Boyd: 60.4%, Third and Long Comp%: Bridgewater: 65.9%, Boyd: 56.5%, Comp % Against the Blitz: Both QBs: 63.2%, Fourth Quarter Comp %: Bridgewater: 62%, Boyd: 67.7%, Avg Dist of Throw on 3rd and Long: Bridgewater: 9.6 yards, Boyd: 10.1 yards We're literally 11 months away from the next draft, we're still in exploratory mode. Could be in 6 months I think Bridgewater's going to be a bust, that's just the nature of the game. Right now I think he's better, but that doesn't mean he is ​better.
I don't see a need to say it at all unless you're trying to refrain from being offensive in the face of a silly post. To me it seemed like you're saying, "I really want to be harsh, but I'll attempt to constrain myself". Water under the bridge, NU. There doesn't have to be a fight about anything; half of this forum experience is about differing of opinions, no? Just b/c I disagree with CK's view of the top QB and you disagree with mine, it doesn't mean we can't constructively debate it and enjoy doing so.
No worries. I'm sure you're not alone in believing Teddy is better than Tajh for what it's worth. That's a shame. Gotchya. Fair enough; however, I'm more concerned with Bridgewater's decision making than the average distance of his completions (which are comparable to Tajh's), as he too often seems to choose the underneath throw as a primary target either before the play has a chance to fully develop or without even looking at targets on the outside running intermediate & deep routes, and even worse- much of the time it occurred off of play action when he should be looking for the opportunity downfield first. I rarely saw him going through progressions but rather too often stared down receivers. The majority of his attempts were either predesigned throws, simple reads, or throwing to the open man from what I could tell. That's just my take, but obviously he has a chance to improve upon that this year, which is why I said he has 1st round potential but currently isn't a 1st round prospect. I'd like to see him utilize pump fakes, occasionally look off defenders, go through some progressions, make more NFL caliber throws, display consistently better patience & poise, work on keeping his eyes downfield, tighten up the mechanics, and show that he has good vision & awareness. Hey I could be saying the same thing in 6 months, myself.
The positive is that he's an instinctive, balanced, variable speed guy that can stay on his feet through contact. The negative is that when get right down to it he's probably got 4.60 to 4.65 speed. Look at his 2012 highlights tape and you'll see Jelani Woseley of Ohio tracking him down from behind on a big run. Woseley was a senior this year and at his pro day he ran a 4.54. You don't need to have great speed to be a good NFL runner, because most of your work will be done in a tight space. But having 4.60 to 4.65 type speed will put a cap on how high he could go.
Speaking of underrated tailbacks there's one on Mississippi State's roster by the name of Josh Robinson. He's playing behind LaDarius Perkins who is legitimately a decent tailback prospect for the Draft. Perkins is a senior while Robinson was just a redshirt freshman this year. Robinson ran 55 times for 335 yards and a TD this year, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. I love his build at 5'9" and about 220 lbs. He uses that build to break through contact, but he's also quick, looks pretty fast, and gets north-south. Wouldn't be shocked if between he and Perkins (who is being rated by NFL Draft Scout as the #2 senior RB for the moment), Robinson is actually the better pro.
Just watched some of Robinson, really interesting runner. Thought he was really patient on his runs, let the holes develop and hit them well. I wouldn't have guessed from watching him that he was 220 at 5'9", carries the weight really well and good speed for that weight. I'll keep an eye on him.
One more RB. While Jahwan Edwards is nice, the guy to watch is Kenneth Dixon from Louisiana Tech. He was a true freshman last year, so obviously not eligible for the draft - I think he could be a top RB for the 2015 draft. Nice size at 6'0", 215 and ran for 1194 yards with a 6.0 average. The way he runs is impressive, he fights for yardage on every run and usually gets it. If anyone has time, I really suggest checking out the A&M game where he averaged 5.8 yards. Here are some select runs: http://youtu.be/Dhi8cUdeB-I?t=2h19m7s http://youtu.be/Dhi8cUdeB-I?t=1h10m40s http://youtu.be/Dhi8cUdeB-I?t=42m5s http://youtu.be/Dhi8cUdeB-I?t=1h17s http://youtu.be/Dhi8cUdeB-I?t=59m59s We'll see how he does if the offense becomes less effective with Dykes gone, but I'm impressed by his running (much more so than Edwards).
If we're talking about young tailbacks that aren't draft eligible yet we might as well talk about T.J. Yeldon and a guy that I'm going to keep an eye on going forward, Jonathan Williams of Arkansas. And of course Todd Gurley.
Going back to Tyler Russell again I think if you're going to look at his statistics you have to account for the fact that he had to deal with having a Wildcat QB in Dak Prescott come in and hawk his touchdowns. Prescott took 27 snaps in the red zone. Statistically between running and throwing, Tyler Russell converted exactly 1/3rd of all his red zone snaps into touchdowns (17 of 51). Those 51 snaps include 40 pass attempts and 11 runs. This suggests that if those snaps had gone to Russell, he may have scored 9 more touchdowns. And actually, if you break it up even further, Prescott got 17 snaps inside the 10 yard line, where Russell converted 47% of his snaps into touchdowns. Russell converted 26% of his snaps in the 10 to 20 yard zone into touchdowns. So if you gave Russell 17 more snaps in the tight red area, and 10 more snaps in the wide red area, then statistically this suggests he may have scored up to 10 more touchdowns. As is, Tyler Russell already accounted for 26 touchdowns in the SEC. But imagine if he'd accounted for 36 touchdowns instead. He would've also had more interceptions, but statistically the suggestion is only 1 or 2 more interceptions. And all year long, Tyler Russell only had 2 fumbles. That's not 2 fumbles lost, that's 2 fumbles period. He only lost 1 fumble.
I like this train of thought, it'd also potentially normalize his distribution of throws that we had talked about earlier. Not drastically, but if you have a 20 yard cap on your throws, you're much more likely to see short passes instead of his ridiculous number of deep passes. The point I was making on Twitter is that it looks like Prescott's snaps in the red zone were broken into 10 passing and 17 rushing. If they didn't use Prescott, would a RB have taken those 17 snaps as rushing snaps? Would they be split evenly between run/pass? Obviously it's impossible to know MSU's play calling, but it's something to consider. If you just assume Prescott was replaced by a RB, and Russell only takes 10 more passing snaps in the red zone, you're looking at between 3 and 4 more TDs. Nothing to sneeze at for sure, but less than 9-10. I'm not sure, but I like the idea of accounting for guys like Prescott and Bell.
The thing is those plays were all wildcat plays. They were run/pass option type plays. If you look at it they were pretty balanced outside of Prescott's work in the red zone. The Bulldogs had Perkins, Robinson, Griffin and Milton run the ball 40 times in the red zone, versus Tyler Russell's throwing the ball 40 times and being sacked 3 times. And note that Russell himself runs some run/pass option stuff, as well as zone-read. If you gave the 27 snaps to Russell I would just assume Russell's ratio of 40 passes to 11 runs would stick, which would mean 61 passes and 17 runs. Add in the run work of Perkins, Robinson and Griffin and that's 61 pass attempts versus 57 run attempts. That's balanced football.
But that's actually a good point about the perversion in his distance allocations perhaps owing a little bit to the Wildcat QB he has to share time with. Playing devil's advocate here, but here is why as he stands today Tyler Russell is not an NFL quarterback. Essentially these are the things he needs to work on: 1. He needs to improve his ball placement. There's a lot of balls that are just BARELY too high, or on the back shoulder, etc. He needs to clean those up. He needs to improve the ball placement of his tailback screen passes, clean up his execution in the short game. 2. He needs to make better decisions running the offense. You can't afford mistakes. I've seen a delay of game. You can't afford that. I've seen him check into a lot of good plays at the line but I've also seen him check into some bad plays at the line. You can't afford the mistakes even if the good plays outnumber the bad. He also needs a little more ownership of the offense so he can get them out of bad plays. He has quite a bit of leeway at the line but I'd like to see him grow even further in this regard. He just has brain fart moments that he needs to cut down on. 3. This is one of the biggest problems for him. Right now he seems like a guy that has to see it in order to trust it and throw it. This results in him consistently holding the football while he stares at his target about one beat too long. He needs to speed himself up and recognize things more instantaneously. On at least one of the interceptions against Northwestern, the defense took advantage of this tendency. 4. The Northwestern game is the biggest problem. Entering the game he had the 9th best single season interception-to-pass-attempt ratio in the history of the SEC, but he threw two "earned" interceptions, both understandable, and emotionally he went completely in the toilet from there. There was a stretch right after those two interceptions where I wouldn't even have trusted him to execute a single pass. He was that bad. He settled down and punched back but the damage was done. And then in the second half he had an incredible brain fart moment on his 4th interception that I just don't even understand. It was a guy that was clearly rattled by what the defense had done to him. Emotionally, he may come off very mature in general but on the field he's got maturation to do before he's a real pro. He can't afford to get rattled like that. It reminded me of Andy Dalton in the bowl game against Boise State, or Tony Romo/Mark Sanchez at the pro level. The short memory wasn't there. The thing is, he was a first year starter in the SEC, and he didn't have a great surrounding cast of receivers. Chad Bumphis was clearly his best and most reliable guy and he was a UDFA caliber guy. As a first year starter you're going to have things you need to work on. Stuff like improving ball placement, eliminating brain fart mistakes and speeding up your execution are things that pretty much every younger guy has to work on. Falling apart when things go a little south on you is not something that every guy has happen to them, but then again I emphasize he was a first year starter and perhaps that was a learning experience for him. He has a guy transferring in this year from JUCO by the name of Jeremy Chappelle that should be able to make more plays from him, and hopefully guys like Arceto Clark and Chris Smith improve. I'm intrigued with TE Malcolm Johnson as well. He has a great RB cast to help take pressure off by running the football. He did well in the spring game and I look forward to seeing him improve in 2013.
What stats cannot show you is the instinct and individual play making ability that comes after protection breaks down..there are no other variables in play, not surrounding talent, nor coaching, it is a visual stat only.
This is relevant in here. http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...y-excited-about-the-maturation-of-aaron-lynch Willie Taggart is selling Aaron Lynch pretty hard. I'd accuse him of just looking out for his own, but Willie's getting a reputation here for being a pretty straight shooter. He didn't have to turn this entire Q&A into one big Aaron Lynch commercial. He chose to do that. He alludes to many of the same things I've noted about Lynch. At Notre Dame, the reputation off the field wasn't good. It also wasn't good here at USF in 2012 with the mandated year off. Taggart heard all about that. But he seems to have gotten through to the kid a little bit. As I said, he looked to me like he'd lost a ton of weight. He went from 270 lbs at Notre Dame on the film there to this spring playing at around 235 lbs. That's a big difference and it's a testament to his lack of focus during his year off. At Notre Dame he was a guy that was outside/inside flexible. So far from what I've seen at South Florida he looks more like a guy that is up/down flexible but I haven't seen the inside use yet. Perhaps they're waiting for him to get back up to between 250 and 260 lbs to start using him inside a little more. At Notre Dame I didn't like the consistency in how he came off the ball, got too upright a lot. I still saw that problem during spring ball. They also rushed him from an up position and it seemed like he was kind of jack-starting a little from an up position. He needs to improve these things and generally play with better pad level. But the fact that Taggart is selling him so hard off the field from a character and work ethic standpoint is a great sign. If he keeps it up, it would remove probably the largest overhang on his draft stock.
Presently I have David Fales [San Jose St] comfortably ahead of Bridgewater and just shy of Boyd for the top QB b/c many of the question marks I have about Bridgewater, Fales has already answered. Teddy clearly has the natural ability and a year (or two) to close this gap however. - attempted a far greater amount of NFL caliber throws than Teddy. - not an elite arm but enough oomph to make the throws. - spins the ball well. - throws a very catchable ball; locates it well. - nice touch on on all levels; seems natural for him. - satisfactory zip on short & intermediate throws. - could use more on his deep ball; hangs at times. Definitely not a fit for a vertically-oriented passing attack. - can throw off back foot effectively when needed. - nice job of tightening up the delivery under pressure. - natural thrower. - better pocket composure than Bridgewater; will continue looking for the open receiver in the face of pressure and deliver a good ball rather than immediately tucking & running. - mechanics are decent and typically consistent. - doesn't lock onto primary targets nor subsequently takes off hastily when his first option isn't open; instead goes through progressions and does so quickly and efficiently. - completed an impressive 72.5% of his passes in first year of D1 ball (good for #1 in 2012). Impressive 9.3 YPA to go with it. 72.3% on 3rd downs. - short to mid range accuracy is comparable to Bridgewater's, but separates himself on throws of 20+ yards. - admirable job of keeping eyes downfield when moving and running. - adequate athleticism - not as athletic or mobile as Bridgewater but was equally effective executing under pressure (if not better) and seemed equally consistent converting broken plays b/c of improved decision-making paired with a better job of maintaining vision downfield. However, if Teddy can sure up this aspect of his game he'll obviously possess the advantage b/c he's clearly the superior athlete. - satisfactory awareness. - good QB instincts, solid feel for the game, and is more than just an athlete with a good arm, which is what I felt Bridgewater was last year. - appears to have impressive vision. - feet do a nice job of keeping up with his eyes while scanning field and searching for alternate targets. - arm seems well-hardwired to his eyes when it comes to decisiveness and pulling the trigger. - trusts his arm. (led to a couple picks but I'm ok with that) - seems to have a grasp on coverage. - noticed instances of manipulating coverage. - in his 1st year as a D1 starter faced two complex 3-4 defenses in Stanford (1st game, 20-17 loss) and BYU (11th game, 20-14 win) and was anything but in over his head. The BYU game vs one of the nation's toughest pass defenses was nothing short of stellar minus one bad throw under pressure into coverage. - was battle tested vs BYU and displayed impressive moxy & composure. - appears mentally strong. - apparent progress through the course of the season. - took a previous 5-7 San Jose State to 11-2 and a #21 ranking. - currently displays a significantly higher floor than Bridgewater but slightly lower ceiling. - I would've had him as perhaps the top QB taken last year..... but not a better prospect than Tannehill. - potential franchise QB and top 20 pick, especially if he can improve arm strength on deep balls (which is what's keeping him from being a top 5 pick IMO). [video=youtube;pgxoG7NsYv4]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgxoG7NsYv4[/video]
