PFF's AFC East QB Pressure Profiles by Steve Palazzolo

I think the fact that Houston was the best team they beat had a lot to do with their record.

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One caveat is that Luck may have just been more confident. Either in his own ability, his receivers, or both. This may have led to a propensity toward low percentage passes and a lower percentage. Conversely, Tannehill may have opted for the safer high percentage pass.

I will note that Tannehill had a history of hanging in for the tough pass under pressure at college though.

Edit: That said, the YPA figures don't bear out my advocacy for Satan.

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1) I believe so, if they took into account scrambling completions (which I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't), however, to say that Luck fails 60% of the time and judge him on that would be a mistake... scrambling for runs, throw aways happen on pressures.

2) what I will say is this, What I might not be seeing is his ability when staring down the gun, basically without scrambling yet getting legitimately pressured, I think it's there where his number may drop because of some inaccuracy..

 

It was based on pressure, and further in the article, it broke down where the pressure came from (tackles, interior, unblocked, etc.). So whether a QB scrambled or not had no bearing on anything they were determining.

Now, if the 40% is true, (and there's no reason to think it isn't) then it means Luck wasn't otherworldly good (when compared to Tanny) with pressure as people are saying. Sure, he may have evaded the pressure well, but if it drastically hurts his completion %, then its not really a thing to be marveled by. Or at the very least, it isn't something to say is a strength of his and a weakness of Tannehill's, when Tannehill was actually better (with clearly less surrounding talent).

Basically, the way you feel about Tannehill's ability under pressure, should actually be similar to the love you give Luck.

These numbers actually bear out what Raf was saying.

 

Just a luck vrs Ryan question.

Are you saying that Tannehill does things more advanced before the moment of escape thus making up for his inferiority after the Qb breaks from the pressure?

 

IMO it was a big discrepancy early in the season, but was much closer at the end of the season.

 

To be honest I don't even know what that means actually.

I think that when faced with pressure, Tannehill has a higher completion percentage than Luck, which tells me Ryan is doing just fine under pressure. <---That's based on stats/numbers.

I think that Tannehill had a worse supporting cast than Luck and a lot of his non-plays under pressure was attributable to receivers not being open and there being a dearth of open/competent targets overall. Like Raf, i often saw a lot of no available passing options for Ryan. <---That's based on watching the games.

Luck may be a better QB overall than Ryan, I'm not qualified to make that call, but I do not think that Luck's under pressure ability should be worshiped over Tannehill's and that will become more evident this coming season. <---That's based on the stats and watching the games, and using rational thought to qualify both of those things.

 

I don't think much of this completion percentage stat. If anything, I'd rather see conversion stats, throws beyond the chains, etc, things that lead directly to points. In 2010, Chad Henne ranked 2nd in comp% against the blitz...and our offense sucked. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/12/beating-the-blitz/

I know this sounds simple, but I really am at the point where I don't care much about these secondary metrics and stats with Tannehill. I know he's our QB this year and could care less whether or not he's actually better than Luck or Wilson or whoever - I feel like these threads with all the small stats is just us trying to justify why we should feel as good about Tanny as teams do about Wilson, Luck, RG3,etc...and I just don't find these constant rookie comparisons useful anymore. All I have to know is Tannehill's our guy this year, and I'll be happy if we score more points and win 9+ games.

 

Your post really doesn't take into account the high number of blockers kept in per play. Henne threw with more available blockers than the other guys. If you read the link it would be obvious that comparing Henne's numbers to others means nothing. Also, when it comes to statistics, one Henne in a sea of Rodgers's does not make the stat worthless.

To compare to the highest standards, it'd be productive to check the blockers per play stat for both teams then isolate blitzed pass plays to determine the amount of blockers.

Or, we can use statistics. It's not like Tannehill's numbers were off the charts so honestly the Henne comparison is a non starter.

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Lol, Rafs, you never let me say that without reminding me of after the injury..

 

What it means??. Ok, let me see if I can explain..

I'm trying to understand where your coming from..so, if I think there is this big discrepancy between the two under pressure, and your telling me the stats say different I'm trying to understand why, my conclusion is that Luck is not as good staring down the gun as Tannehill is, but is better at when protection breaks downs, thus evening out the stat.

 

ummmmmm.King???

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Is that a phone, and why the hell wasn't I notified about this!!!!

( movie reference)

 

Or, try to honestly imagine this scenario:

Protection collapses all around you, Hartline is covered, Bess is covered, Fasano is trying to block and Bush is covered...your knee is dodgy limiting your mobility dramatically....what can you do?

Now sure, Luck had the same things happen to him, except he also had better TEs and at least 1 other WR as an option and he didn't have a bum knee.

Based on the skill positions around both QBs, which one do you think found themselves in that no win situation more, Luck or Tannehill?

 

Your changing the subject, in this post your talking specifically about when the Qb makes a decision to escape pressure and make a play, (individual playmaking ability)luck is elite in that dept, Tannehill is not, yet, and before you say I'm not taking into account the injury, I am, before the injury, and in college..

Back to what we were getting at, is does Ryan have a better ability to deal with pressure without breaking the pocket than Luck does, thus evening out the stat.

 

I'm not changing the subject though.

I think that if all things were equal around the two QBs (line, skill positions and defensive skill) under pressure Luck will move around in the pocket better but have a lower completion percentage (thus making less big passing plays) and Tannehill will flush out of the pocket but have a higher completion percentage (thus making more big passing plays). I think Luck will improve, but so will Tannehill.

I think at the end of the day, Luck is more in the Peyton Manning pocket QB mold and Tannehill is more in the all around QB Aaron Rodgers mold.

 

The stat is not about who's more accurate once flushed out of the pocket, if it were, then I don't think Ryan can hang, and I believe some here would agree with me in that, I'm trying to help decipher and figure out the original argument as to why Tannehill might have a better completion percentage when pressured, and to me it's because he might be better at standing in the pocket and delivering than Luck is..thus making up for the advantage that Luck has on him when both break or move around the pocket..

I completely disagree with your analysis on who these players games favors, Luck is not in the Peyton manning mold, Luck is in the Rodgers mold because Rodgers is another one that is elite at individual play making ability, luck is similar to Kap, Wilson, RG, Rothlesberger, full on threat throwing and playmaking, Ryan I believe is less instinctive at breaking the pocket so I don't understand the reference or agree with it my brother.

The playmaking trait is a comfortability, it's peripheral..I don't see Ryan there yet but he's young, however, I don't think he will be as good as the aforementioned qbs in that dept.

But some say that that's better, it will protect him long term.

 

I didn't say the stat was about who was more accurate when flushed out. Its about who is more accurate when there's pressure. From there more post makes less and less sense to me, WADR.

Ryan Tannehill's biggest strength is his accuracy while on the move, he's already one of the best QB's in the league at it...so I'm not sure where you get that Tannehill "can't hang" with Luck on that when its really the opposite.

And the comparison's I'm making are pretty solid. Luck is more of pocket a QB that can avoid pressure while staying in the pocket (like Manning, Marino, Big Rape) while Tannehill is more of an all around QB who is solid in the pocket but can also break out of it under pressure and still the deliver ball with laser accuracy (like Rodgers). Hell, Tannehill and Rodgers had virtually identical college numbers and are both playing in the perfect system for them now....which happens to be the same system.

I also think you have an impossible view of individual playmaking ability when it comes to QBs. You say you factor in the knee injury and the lack of a supporting cast in your assessment of Tannehill, but you don't factor in that those other guys didn't have those problems. There is not an endless amount of things QBs can do. You give Luck or CKap a bum knee and give them only Hartline, Bess & Fasano with our line, you'd be talking bout them the way you are about Tanny now...cautiously optimistic. And if Tanny didn't have the bum knee and had either of their supporting talent, you'd be talking about his amazing individual playmaking ability.

This will become more evident throughout this coming year, I swear. You know, when I tell you "I swear" there's a pretty decent chance its true.

 

I just think the early season comparison overly colors your opinion. If you had never seen anything of RT until post-injury, I think you'd rate them pretty closely in terms of quickness. Luck is stronger but RT is faster. RT didn't run at the combine b/c he had that foot injury, but his pro day was 4.58 compared to Luck's 4.67. RT is almost as fast as Kaepernick or Wilson. I expect the combination of increased experience, more of the reins being taken off RT and the offense and the better supporting cast will result in more play making by RT.

 

I agree that RT is better at throwing on the run than Luck is. In fact, other than physical strength (he's about 15 pounds heavier), I don't see any physical area or physical skill where Luck is superior. Luck has far more experience and is more polished. I think he's better decision maker at this point. But RT is faster and a better passer (more accurate standing still or on the move and has a stronger arm).

 

I see where our miscommunication is, yes, Ryan is excellent on the move throwing the ball, deadly even, that's different than the trait I'm talking about, The escapability part, the instincts to detect where pressure is coming from and have that specific athleticism to escape is what I'm refferring to when I say Luck has it and Ryan hasn't shown the same level.

So if I think that, I'm trying to understand why Tannehill is better under pressure, once again because I don't think he's as good as getting away from it as the lucks, Caps, Wilson's of the league, so my own conclusions are that he must make up for it by standing static in the face of pressure better than luck, to be specific, Tannehill doesn't bail as quickly and tries to complete the pass.

 

I feel like I'm very in tune to the trait when I see it, it's not about an injury, he wasn't injured all of the season, or in college, I am giving him room to grow, but at this point for me, I don't put him in the same league as the others I mentioned, and also, skillset talent around him has nothing to do with the trait, it's all instinctive and kicks in when pressure is upon the player..the skillset players might affect completion percentage because of their inability to separate, but the trait can still be on full display.

 

Most def he's faster, more so in a strat line though, before the injury I didn't see the lateral quickness or agility required to be elite in the sense I'm talking about, which is ok, he doesn't necessarily have to be elite, he might be able to carve you up from the pocket, I'm just talking about this one thing.

 

Individual play making ability can be isolated and determined regardless of the playmakers around him.

 

IMO most of what you saw was more decisiveness due to the experience difference. I didn't see any lateral quickness advantage for Luck after RT healed. And while individual play making can be isolated, you have to factor in the options the player has. If a QB is in a constrained offensive system and nobody is open, he will make fewer plays than an equally physically gifted QB w/o those restraints. If you're claiming that Luck was so much better in those pressure situations then it seems clear you did not factor those in. Reality is that the number of plays made under pressure (objectively) was pretty close after RT healed despite those factors. Unless you're still focused on what you saw from Luck and RT when RT was injured, I don't believe there's any way to conclude that Luck was a much better playmaker after RT healed.

 

I don't believe there's anyway to conclude thru stats or numbers no, just that I feel very confident that I understand what elite is when talking about that specific talent...

Russell Wilson is the best at it in all the league imo, and I say that because not only does he escape with his head up, he does so with precision and angles in mind which gives him even more separation to reset his platform and mechanics.

 

The obsession with Andrew Luck is a bit much. He'll probably be a good starting quarterback, but pegging him as the next big thing based on what he's done on the field as an NFL player is overboard.

 

This is no surprise to me. I've said all along, even got into a few pissing matches with people here about this, that Brady wilts under pressure. I've said that Brady wilts worse than any other all time great I've ever seen. This is why he's not, IMO, an all time top 10-15 great QB.

 

-1.6

Worse than Tanny

 

Faulting Tannehill for not breaking the pocket as often as Luck is weird considering I have him pegged as a guy who would rather hang in there for the throw. With Swope and good Fuller in college that was doable. Last year, not so much. I think he learned that when he got hit in NY.

Once the brace came off, he was very willing to run or scramble. My theory is that he decided his receivers weren't going to get him killed. Tannehill is an athletic pocket passer. His throws and runs in college tended to be designed. Luck on the other hand seems to be more of a Tony Romo or Drew Brees player who improvises.

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I would agree about Wilson. And I would also agree that Luck is elite at that. I just also believe you're sell RT short b/c your perception is tainted by what you saw when he was injured.

 

I'm guessing that part of that was the coaching. I got the impression he was told to throw it away and not to run early on. I think the reins were loosened by the last quarter of the season and when the brace came off. I expect that we'll see him run more this year as a result of his increased confidence and experience (he'll know when it's just not there or when he has no time) and by design (similar to how we saw them use Kaepernick).

 

I'd fu&$ him if he were a chick

 

I think that's what me and Fin were discussing, he's much more prone to stand and deliver then bailing thus increasing his completion percentage, however we can't know what good things can happen when the elite scramblers bail.

 

Except for I felt the way I did before the injury, I thought he was lethargic and clumsy in the pocket at times, now if you wanna argue that's from inexperience and not catching up with the speed of the game, I can see that angle.

I felt Ryan this offseason had to work on exactly that this offseason, getting quicker and faster rather than bigger and bulkier, just so he could escape with more precision when he had to, I've been really excited seeing his body this offseason, he looks a bit leaner and in better shape to me..

I'm sure some will say he should be in the film room and learning from the pocket, but that's not how I would design an offense.

 

This whole thread is about how you respond to pressure. They respond in different ways but Tannehill's response is clearly more effective. Luck just looks better doing it.

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The thread is also about how not cut and dry what your saying is.

 

ugliest chick EVER.

 

That's been my point. RT was coming in with far less experience, so of course Luck looked quicker and more decisive. That's not an angle. Thats what youd expect to happen. I also expect that they coached RT to throw it away and limit his running. The key is what he looked like with a little more experience under his belt, being given more freedom and feeling more mobile after he healed enough to remove the brace. So compare those two over the last quarter of the season forgetting or pretending you'd never seen either of them play before. Evaluate them like new players or a team that added experience and got healthier. If you compare them on that more level playing field I don't see anyway you can say Luck is on a different level.

 

Lol..fo sho.

 

I know Ryan can make some plays in the dept were talking about, I'm really just looking at what level he can get to, that's why I wanted his training to be really specific in quickness and explosiveness..I do feel strongly that pocket mobility was a weakness in his game relative to the athleticism he possesses which implies to me that the trait were talking about is a good percentage of instincts.