My guess is that Luck will be better, stat wise, but Indy's record will be worse. RT will be better and the team will be better. RG3 and Kaepernick will struggle a bit (injury and playing from the pocket, respectively). Wilson should be about the same.
this is another one of those impossible hypotheticals isn't it? No such thing as a guaranteed superbowl victory... But it's the Browns. You should at least wait for a better opponent that's what they all say... I'd cup a machine's balls, nothing "wrong" with that Favre's? Just steal Steve Mariucci's cell phone for that.
Tanny got better as the season went on IMO. http://www.nfl.com/player/ryantannehill/2532956/gamelogs?season=2012 He also had two games with 3 picks each, one of them his first game, and the other a nothing-is-clicking-blowout-loss.
I agree. I can't see how anybody would claim he didn't improve last year unless they just don't know much about the QB position. I also don't think he's streaky, at least not relative to most every QB in the league. IMO he's one of the more consistent QBs. Obviously there was some variation in his stats, but I thought that was more related to the performance of his surrounding cast or just luck. His individual performance (accuracy, decision making, etc.) was consistent except that his decision making speed improved during the year. And he was also making more checks at the lane in the second half of the season and knowing when to run. I hope he runs more often this year. I don't want him to take hits, but when it's not there (the passing play) I want him to recognize that sooner and run 5 0r 10 yards and slide or get out of bounds. That should decrease the negative or zero plays and have fewer passes into risky situations (not that he throws many high risk passes). It'll keep our O on schedule and create a few opportunities where the S moves up to stop the QB run and RT just throws it over his head to the suddenly open WR.
I just hope Tannehill can improve on this season. And if he can't or pulls a Henne and noticeably regresses, I hope the FO (whoever that may be) is not too slow to cut bait and move on. I know fans won't, but hopefully the team does. And that doesn't mean they have to "give up" on him. It just means they have to explore other alternatives.
Tracking TD/INTs is easy. I'd respectfully suggest tracking WHY the INTs are occurring. I have 3 basic categories, bad pass, bad decision, bad luck (tips, drops, pass pro, receiver error, anything that's out of the QB's control). IMO they're not all created equal. If you're down 10 with 3 minutes to go then some additional risk taking is warranted, but if it's early in the game or you're playing with a lead then there's really no excuse to be forcing the ball into coverage, etc, etc. Something else to look at would be "almost" INTs. Bad throws that should've been INTs but the defender dropped the ball. In my head those are just as bad but not as costly as an actual INT, like a ball carrier fumbling but one of his teammates happens to fall on the ball.
Anyone know if they were all just bad throws? Who knows, maybe 3 of the picks were receivers running the wrong route? Tipped by the receiver into the DB? Dustin Keller still trying to work off the Jets scum. 4 INTs not necessarily = Tannehill playing badly. Either way, as was mentioned earlier "we talking bout practice". Could have been hail mary drills
Yes, yes and yes. If I'm guessing correctly Wallace, Gibson and Keller are going to cause defenses to expand more than any group that saw the field last year. That should mean more space for the backs on check downs and more room for Tannehill to take off if the need arises. A sprinkle of zone read would be nice too. No need to wait till the last few weeks of the year this time around. If ZR can be established Wallace, Hartline and Keller should wreak havoc running the Post-Dig-Shallow cross combo off of it. I swear the Redskins murdered people all year doing it, especially when Garcon was healthy.
I did read he had a open hartline deep but severely under threw him and it was picked off. I have been concerned about his touch on the long ball.
If he doesn't get better, it won't be because he didn't put in the time. By all accounts the kid has a tremendous work ethic. Thats a good start to improvement.
Today seemed like a vast improvement over yesterdays practice. Bomb to Wallace and a dart TD to Keller. Couple tweets said Hartline dropped a couple balls...cut that *****!
Well, you're right there are different categories of turnovers and interceptions. And yes, for one game it's good to look at each turnover at that level. But when you're talking over time and over the course of an entire season too often when you analyze things at that level us fans start using those types of things to excuse and defend bad QB play. Bottom line: Over time good QBs tend to have good TD/INT ratios, and poor QBs tend to have poor TD/INT ratios. That goes for the other metrics too.
Here's a chart you may find interesting http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/adjusted-interceptions-2012. It details INT figures but adds in passes that "should have" been intercepted. Tannehill's number goes from 13 to 16, or 3.3% of his throws. good for 18th out of 39 charted QB's. For isht's and giggles, Andrew Luck's INT number rises from 14 to 30, or 4.8% of his throws; Including 3 dropped INTs vs Miami. That ranks him 5th worst, ahead of only Hasselbeck, John Skelton, Brandon Weeden and Ryan Lindley. Luck was even edged out by Mark Sanchez who came in at 4.7%. I'm not sayin...I'm just saying.
Is there a similar statistic but for adjusted TD's instead of interceptions? Some kind of stat that accounts for drops in the redzone that could have turned into a touchdown?
hmmm yeah that has seemed to be an issue. Can't recall specifics but i feel like i saw alot of that last year. One thing i keep remembering is the year Aaron Rodgers brokeout...his preseason that year was off the chain...deep ball highlight city, i just remember thinking "wow this guy is going to be good" - so that's always in the back of my mind when i hear "it's just preseason". Would love to see a few big plays tonight
WADR, that is simply not true. Tannehill (44%) was the 3rd most accurate deep passer behind just RGIII (47%) & Peyton (46%).
