How much better will the Dolphins be in 2013 due to player acquisitions and development? What follows is a starter vs. starter judgment from 2012 to 2013 to gauge whether it is fair to say the Miami Dolphins will be a better team this year. QB Returning 2013 starter: Ryan Tannehill Judgment: Better I have healthy skepticism regarding Ryan Tannehill. But a 2nd year QB, especially one with as few college starts as Tannehill had, is going to be better than a rookie QB. RB 2012 starter: Reggie Bush 2013 starter: Lamar Miller Judgment: Inconclusive Bush played with a fire in his two years in Miami trying to prove he is an every down back. Miller hasn't decisively beaten out Daniel Thomas. And he is fragile. Too many questions to say this position is better or worse. WR1 2012 starter: Brian Hartline 2013 starter: Mike Wallace Judgment: Better I actually don't think Wallace will be more productive in terms of yards and catches than Hartline was last season. Though all he needs is two TD's to double Hartline's production there. But Wallace improves the position with his speed, and when clearing out the safety opens things up underneath for everyone else. WR2 2012 starter: Davone Bess 2013 starter: Brian Hartline Judgment: Better The Philbin/Sherman offense did not utilize Bess very well. Putting last year's number one in the second spot is obviously an improvement. WR3 2012 starter: A revolving door of mediocrity. 2013 starter: Brandon Gibson Judgment: Better TE 2012 starter: Anthony Fasano 2013 starter: Charles Clay Judgment: Worse Given the chemistry Tannehill developed in one year with Fasano and one preseason with Keller, the dropoff to Clay couldn't be more obvious and devastating to this offense. LT 2012 starter: Jake Long 2013 starter: Jonathan Martin Judgment: Better (edited, thanks MonstBlitz!) Jake Long was such a shadow of his former self last season. He was the 46th ranked OT in 2013. Martin will be better than that. LG 2013 starter: Richie Incognito Judgment: Even C Returning 2013 starter: Mike Pouncey Judgment: Even RG Returning 2013 starter: John Jerry Judgment: Even (sadly) Ireland continues to try desperately to upgrade this position. Jerry isn't giving it up. RT 2012 starter: Jonathan Martin 2013 starter: Tyson Clabo Judgment: Better A veteran playing his natural position is an easy upgrade over a rookie playing outside his natural position. LDE Returning 2013 starter: Cameron Wake Judgment: Even RDE 2012 starter: Jared Odrick 2013 starter: Olivier Vernon Judgment: Better If Vernon is not an obvious improvement over Odrick then Dion Jordan will be. DT1 Returning 2013 starter: Paul Soliai Judgment: Even DT2 Returning 2013 starter: Randy Starks + co-starter Odrick Judgment: Better Rotation will improve this position OLB1 2012 starter: Kevin Burnett 2013 starter: Phillip Wheeler Judgment: Inconclusive The new LB tandem are supposed to be better blitzers. However they are expected to be worse at covering the TE. Will this old Dolphins weakness haunt the 2013 defense? We shall see. OLB2 Returning 2013 starter: Koa Misi Judgment: Better He is a player entering his prime. He better be better. MLB 2012 starter: Karlos Dansby 2013 starter: Dannell Ellerbe Judgment: Inconclusive See Wheeler above. Is Ellerbe just another Super Bowl free agent gone bust? I'm happy to give him the benefit of the doubt. But too early to tell if this is for better or worse. FS Returning 2013 starter: Chris Clemons Judgment: Better The following goes for all the returning defensive backs, but mostly for the safeties. Expect improvement in year two under Coyle's system. SS Returning 2013 starter: Reshad Jones Judgment: Better Continuity with Clemons and improved CB play could make 2013 more impressive than 2012. CB1 2012 starter: Sean Smith 2013 starter: Brent Grimes Judgment: Better The most improved position this year. CB2 2012 starter: Richard Marshall/Dimitri Patterson 2013 starter: Dimitri Patterson Judgment: Better The depth and the experience in the system will help. CB3 Returning 2013 starter: Nolan Carroll Judgment: Better This judgment isn't so much Carroll, as it is the depth behind him. Once fully healthy, rookie Jamar Taylor or Will Davis will move into this spot by season's end. I'm aware that I'm an eternal optimist, but I really only see one position, TE, that got fundamentally worse this year. Though the Inconclusive positions may turn out to be major liabilities in 2013, players expected to maintain their quality of play may drop off, and injuries could devastate, there is reasonable cause for fan optimism. What do you all think? And is our depth at any position more troubling in 2013 than 2012?
Going from Long, even a diminished Long, to Martin is a downgrade...JM was abysmal as a rookie, it's not realistic to expect him to improve that much in just one season...maybe by 2014, if he's still our starting LT. everything else I pretty much agree with.
Good work His'n. I think it's clear that at least on paper we've significantly upgraded our team while getting younger. Let's hope it translates to wins.
My disagreements. I don't disagree that the judgement is inconclusive. I disagree with you that Lamar Miller hasn't decisively beaten out Thomas. Lamar Miller is by far and away the better RB and it's not even debatable. Whether or not he's better than Bush, I don't know. I would of liked Miami to work a deal with him, but I'm still excited to see what Miller brings to the table. I think Wallace will be far more productive than Hartline in all aspects in 2012. Catches, yards, tds, YAC, YPR, etc... As well as opening up the offense for others. Richie's weight loss makes me hopeful he'll improve upon his impressive 2012 campaign. As long as he didn't lose strength, I can't help but believe the extra mobility and stamina will give him a slight edge over his 2012 performance.
I think Miller is the better back and has proven he's the better back. But the homegrown hype from the offseason has dwindled to the point where they're threatening Miller with splitting a lot of downs with Thomas. But we'll see. It could all be deliberate. I think Wallace easily could be more productive, however I think he is an upgrade simply by allowing Hartline to be a number 2. My gut tells me Incognito is going to have a better year. And I changed my grade from better to even at the last minute because "my gut" is too subjective.
I don't know... I don't even know where Miller lost his hype. I thought he had a good preseason, with over 4 ypc. I thought he looked fast, and quick, and I think that after Sunday there will be plenty of hype around him. The only thing that will slow him down is inadequate blocking. Ellerbe looked like twice the MLB Dansby was just in the preseason! Wheeler I need to see more of. CB1 - DEFINITELY agree!
I would normally agree with you, based on Martin's 2012 play, but he's improved markedly in the offseason and PS, again based on his 2012 season...so to say that he'd match the broken down Long is not a stretch at all....
Somewhere along the line the RBs in general lost their luster, that's for sure. And look a bit closer at the Tampa PS game and you'll come away with a different view of Miller's blocking prowess...however, the question for Miller is can he do it over the long haul. IIRC, he never finished a college season healthy, so hopefully he's hit the weight room and is better conditioned this year...
No major disagreements, except for - I think Dolphin fans on this board and in general are undervaluing Jake Long. Yeah, last year was a bad year but overall he's still a much better than average LT. While Martin hasn't even come close to proving he can effectively play the position. It's recognized as one of the biggest question marks and a huge potential weakness for this team. To call it even is failing to take into account the talent lost and the question mark in Martin. Really whether or not the Dolphins are better or worse will come down to Tannehill's progression or lack thereof. But shaky to poor O-line play could prove a huge road block in his development. I hope you end up being right and Martin proves serviceable. I just think it's a mistake to assume he can live up to even a lesser form of Jake Long.
I see your points, but I completely disagree. I'm comparing what we had in 2012 to what we have in 2013. In a contract year for Jake Long he was the 46th ranked OT. He was a pathetic shell of his perennial pro bowl self last season. The Dolphins were 7-9 despite that. In fact, you've convinced me to look deep enough into it that I'm changing my judgement to better. I'm too much of an optimist not believe that Martin can at least be the 45th ranked OT in 2013.
We could debate the merits and usefulness of individual OT rankings all day, but I'm just going to leave it at this: I think there is a very real chance that overall the offensive line play on this team might be significantly worse than it was last season. If this proves to be the case, it will be most likely be due to Johnathan Martin replacing Jake Long at left tackle. Like I said, I hope you are right and Martin is up to the task. I'm not so optimistic but I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Reggie Bush replaced by Miller is one I worry about. It's a big question mark. Then loosing Keller was terrible, someone must step up in the TE position are we might be in trouble. Nice write up.
Clabo is an upgrade over Martin and Martin is an upgrade over Long ....so Clabo>Martin>Long?? Don't see it.
Even if LT stays the same (bad/poor), there is an upgrade at RT. Overall its better, though not stellar. I do expect Martin to be better overall this year
agreed on the most part, not sure about long and martin though, that will probably answered after a few games, i also think that Lamar Miller is a better runner than reggie, vision wise...no dancing stuff, take whats there and run with it, this will probably the biggest improvement from last year....hit the hole....fast
That's just the point, we are looking at it from a perspective of last year, ergo, at this time, while we all acknowledge that Martin is not a healthy Jake, we haven't seen that Jake for a couple of years, therefore Martin and Long are a push, at worst. Martin does appear to be better than he was last year so far in TC...the rest remains to be seen. Then you say that the key to our progression is based solely on Tanny's continued progression but make the argument that the OL could hinder his development ?? I still think the progression of the OL is paramount to all the other improvements this team has made, both offensively and defensively. Tanny can be 'as good' as he was last year, but with more time behind a better OL, could show improvement, if that makes any sense...Add in the extra targets he's got this year, and we can reasonably expect to be a better club than last year. But, imho, it hinges on the OL...period...
Good thread! I wouldn't call it optimistic, though. I'd say it very realistic. The improvements are areas that reasonably and in all probability will improve. The one that's drawn the most comments seems to be Long v. Martin. Long has not been a good LT for a couple of years now. He hasn't even played to the level that Martin this preseason for a couple of years. And I'm not of the belief that Martin has been more than adequate this preseason. Sure, he may have been the first or second rated LT according to PFF this preseason, but IMO I would just say he was good enough or adequate. However, I haven't been able to say that about Long for the last two seasons. The one I would question is Clemons. I'm not sure he'll be better. I wonder if he just is what he is. That's a solid, non-play making S. The other improvement I would add is kicker. IMO Sturgis will almost assuredly be much better on kickoffs and probably be better on FGs. I could see his percentage being lower if they try him on longer kicks that they wouldn't even have tried with Carp, but on the kicks in the same range I expect he'll be at least as good. The talent level for kickers has reached the point where they almost all make 80% or better. If you have an 80% kicker then odds are pretty good that you could find another one at that level or better. And the odds are tiny that you'll end up with one that's worse.
On paper, the 2013 version of the Dolphins appears to be better than the 2012 team. Of course on paper, the 2013 schedule looks tougher than the 2012 schedule. So while the team may be a little better this year, I would not be the least bit surprised if their won-loss record doesn't end up being about the same as the 2012 squad.
I'm disappointed at the assessment of Jake Long - He was plagued with a shoulder all last season, had a down year with penalities and a couple sacks, and now he sucks. When Jake was right - Jake was a bad *** and a SHUT DOWN LT. He was also a mover at the line of scrimmage on runs. I'll miss him.
I'm not disparaging what Jake was before 2012, just pointing out that the position he played poorly last year should see improvement this year.
Qb Ryan Tannehill VS Ryan Tannehill – Better – Tannehill should show improvement from last year Rb- Reggie Bush Vs Lamar Miller - Even – I like Lamar Miller will be a better between the tackle runner than Reggie Bush, I also don’t think he will have as much negative yardage. However, I think we will miss Reggie’s big play ability and receiving ability. Lamar Miller really is an unknown at the time but I have high expectations. Wr1- Brian Hartline Vs Mike Wallace – Better – Wallace will bring a deep treat to offense that was not there last year. I think Wallace goes over 1k and has more td’s then Hartline did last year Wr2- Davone Bess Vs Brian Hartline - Better – I think Hartline has more TDs this year but not as many yards. I do think Hartline’s overall statistics this year will be better than Bess’s last. Wr3 - Marlon Moore Vs Brandon Gibson – Better- I put Marlon Moore in because he probably was the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best receiver last year. I think Brandon Gibson has a good year with around 600 to 700 yards and with 5 or 6 touchdowns. Te – Anthony Fasano Vs Charles Clay – Worse – I don’t know what Egnew or Simms will do but just comparing Fasano and Clay I feel this is a pretty big downgrade. Lt- Jake Long Vs Jon Martin – Worse – I think Martin has a better season then last and I don’t think he will be a major liability however I can’t put him above Jake Long yet until I see it. Lg – Richie Incognitio Vs Richie Incognitio – Same C – Mike Pouncey Vs Mike Pouncey – Better- I think Pouncey continues to improve and makes the probowl and may all pro Rg – John Jerry Vs John Jerry or Danny Watkins – Same- I don’t see Jerry improving very much and from what I have seen of Watkins I think he might be a little better than Jerry but he isn’t the starter yet. Rt- Jon Martin Vs Tyson Clabo – Better- Jon Martin wasn’t very good last year and while Tyson Clabo isn’t in his prime anymore I don’t think we are looking at Marco Columbo 2011 either. Le – Cameron Wake Vs Cameron Wake – Same Re – Jared Odrick Vs Olivier Vernon – Same – Odrick better versus the run Vernon better versus the pass Dt 1- Paul Soliai Vs Paul Soliai – Same Dt 2 Randy Starks Vs Jared Odrick – slightly worse- I do think Odrick will have a good year and will prove to be a better tackle than an end. Dt 3 Tony McDanial Vs Randy Starks - Better – Starks is probably a top 10 tackle in the league and he’s the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] string on this team. This is def and upgrade. 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down pass pusher – Olivier Vernon VS Dion Jordon – Better- Vernon wasn’t much of a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down pass rusher last year where I expect a lot from Jordon in that role this year Olb – Koa Misi Vs Koa Misi – same Olb – Kevin Burnett Vs Phillip Wheeler – Even Mlb – Karlos Dansby Vs Dannell Ellerbe – Even Cb – Sean Smith Vs Brent Grimes – Better Cb2 – Dimitri Patterson Vs Dimitri Patterson and Richard Marshall – Better Patterson joined the team late last year with a full off season I feel that he is better. Fs – Chris Clemons Vs Chris Clemons – Same Ss- Reshad Jones Vs Reshad Jones – Better- I think Jones continues to improve and make the probowl and maybe all pro this year.
I do not really care about how any of it looks on paper. This season is going to be a reflection on the coaches. They chose to jettison the talent on the roster and they hand picked their replacements. If it does not improve the team then they failed. If they did improve the team then they succeeded. Its really as simple as that for me. We will see if Coyle can make use of the new players he has and adjust to the loss of the ones that are gone and the same can be said about Sherman.
I completely disagree. Sherman is going to be responsible for putting up the points on offense. And Coyle, he has to do the opposite. He has to prevent the other team from scoring points. I think it all comes down to paper. When I read the scores in the paper on Monday morning, if the Dolphins scored more than their opponent, I think they'll get the win.
Dansby had 101 solo tackles for us last year. He is also very durable, hardly ever missing a game his entire career.(8 total games in 9 full seasons) Meanwhile, Ellerbe has never played a full season in 4 years in the NFL (18 games missed in 4 seasons). His highest tackle total was 66 and his highest number of games played in a season is 13. His tackle totals compared to Dansby is merely the difference between MLB and OLB. I think the biggest concern with Ellerbe will be can he stay healthy, especially when the switch to MLB will see an increase in the physical pounding he takes. Talent and Ability might be a wash in comparison, but durability is the issue here. Philip Wheeler had his breakout season last year in Oakland, recording 78 tackles and 31 assists while Kevin Burnett had 80 and 29 here. Before last season, Wheeler averaged 36 tackles a season. Wheeler had 3 sacks and 6 Pass Defenses and Burnett 2.5 sacks and 5 Pass Defenses. Neither player had a pick. Both Wheeler and Burnett have both been very durable, missing very few games, less than 1 a season over their careers. We lost a couple of Solid Vets at Linebacker and it remains to be seen whether the new and younger acquistions can fill these shoes. Dansby and Burnett were tackle machines and they were reliable, Dansby playing almost all of last season with an injured bicep and still recording 100+ tackles. Dansby was also the signal caller for the defense, a roll that Ellerbe must be able to execute this season and being a rookie to MLB, it may take him some time to settle in. If these two positions come out in the even column by seasons end - Dolphin fans should be extremely happy. Koa Misi (The last of our linebackers) - 47 solo tackles and 13 assists 3.5 Sacks and 2 Passes Defended. (All career highs)
He hasn't been "right" for a couple of years. It wasn't just one down year. And he's looked just as broken down in the preseason this year. I'll miss the player he was originally, but the current assessment of Long is accurate.
I really still dont understand why people are so down on the rookie season that Martin had. Was he below average as a starter in the NFL? Yes, but he was still much better than anyone we've had at RT in years, and that was as a rookie playing out of position, playing next to another guy who was struggling. It would be suprising if he wasnt much better in year two. Through 15 games last season, Dansby and Burnett had a combined zero sacks, zero picks, zero forced fumbles, and zero fumble recoveries. The also sturuggled in pass coverage, despite others saying the opposite. They were a pair of very overpaid run stuffers who offered almost nothing else. Whatever we might lose in run defense with Ellerbe and Wheeler, I think that we can absorb it with our stout DL and Misi, especially when you take into account that the two new guys will almost certainly deliver big plays, something that the old two literally had zero of for almost all of last season.
It's time to revisit all your garbage rants and see who is right and who is wrong, and GRILL the people who were wrong, LETS BEGIN.
