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Gardenhead's Saints Scouting Report

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Sep 23, 2013.

  1. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agree with you 100%... maybe one of the few... I am not predicting a win, nor confident we loose... but our coaching has the players believing in the system, and the depth has been adequate...

    We came out with a win against Atlanta and the Colts because our injured and often bad tackling Defense still kept high powered opponents from the EZ in the 2nd half of the games...

    We came out with a win against Atlanta and the Colts because our depth is coached well enough to execute the plays...

    We came out with a win against Atlanta and the Colts because the players (starters and back ups) have bought into the system...

    We came out with a win against Atlanta and the Colts because our Offense seems to keep up and score when they need too...

    It has been since 1985 since this Offence has had a Franchise variance of at least 7 points per game (between O and D)... that is at least 28 years...
     
  2. bucaroo

    bucaroo New Member

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    Helloooooooo. As a Saints fan I got two things to offer this scouting report:

    1. You are severely underrating the Saints defense. You cannot suck while being ranked 5th in the league after having faced Atlanta and the Fitz Cardinals. The Saints corners have also been playing well. Jabari Greer is a very good and underrated man to man corner. Keenan Lewis just came over from Pittsburgh and is playing better game by game. The Saints D Line is something to contend with. Gets pressure without blitzing.


    2. You are over rating the Saints offense and Brees. The offensive line has some new faces and have struggled with stunts and blitzes. Brees has not quite had one of "his" types of games yet, which is kinda scary for the opposition. As an offense, they have been disappointed in their play thus far and will certainly try to make a spectacle of the Dolphins on Monday night.

    There is your true scouting report from a 10/10 Saints fan who watches the games sober.
     
    HULKFish, cuchulainn, TiP54 and 2 others like this.
  3. I disagree with you about the cards offense being a legitimate measuring stick for your defense but non the less appreciate your oppinion
     
  4. Saint Greg

    Saint Greg Well-Known Member

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    10.3
     
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  5. Ludacris

    Ludacris Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Keenan Lewis vs Mike Wallace is going to be interesting because they are friends and former Steelers. I'm going to expect Wallace to run rings around Lewis. I think Wallace, especially with his expanded route tree, will have a good day.

    They like to split Jimmy Graham out wide like a WR. He dominates small corners. Nolan Carroll is 6'1" (assuming Patterson is still injured) and will have to step up or we'll be forced to send Misi or Reshad Jones out to the corner. If Graham is lined up as a traditional TE Wheeler and Ellerbe will have to shut him down and that is the reason they were acquired. They have to show it now against Graham that they can cover TEs.
     
  6. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    3 pages of people doubting their defense, some disagreeing because of Cameron, Greer, etc. But nobody has mentioned DC Rob Ryan who has had a Wade Phillips type effect on this Saints defense. This a very improved unit, and going into the Superdome for a MNF game is a lot to ask of ANY team.

    We will need to disrupt Bree's without our best defensive player, I wish I could find a logical reason to predict a victory but to me it's obvious we will need a lot to go right in order to pull of this upset.
     
  7. Saint Greg

    Saint Greg Well-Known Member

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    They were also high school teammates at O. Perry Walker in New Orleans.
     
  8. cjjr72984

    cjjr72984 New Member

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    Lol, wow. So I specifically asked why you said the Saints secondary "sucked." All you can say in reply is a guarantee that Tannehill will throw for 350??

    C'mon man, give some insight. What on film have you seen from the Saints secondary that makes you believe Tannehill will put up that kind of yardage?
     
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  9. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I'm not saying he "can't" but it's a taller order than most people around here realize.
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Not to single you out, but I've seen things like this a lot.

    I'm happy we jettisoned Dansby and Burnett as I feel they were severely over rated, but the one area where they were better than Ellerbe & Wheeler was coverage. It was the big trade off when they switch happened, we got rid of older guys that can cover for young faster guys that can get after the QB.
     
  11. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    The PPG stats are pretty doggone skewed, especially after 3 weeks.

    How about PPG as a cumulative +/- stat based on how many points a team allows over/under each opponent's average point output? That way allowing 23 points to the Packers won't be the same as allowing 23 to a team like the Bucs and scoring 31 on Seattle won't be the same as scoring 31 on a team like Washington.

    The same could apply in other offensive/defensive categories. Positives grades for forcing teams to under perform their averages and negatives grades for failing to do so.

    Just a thought.
     
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  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Personally I try and steer away from that line of analysis because it's circular in many ways. You say if they allowed 14 points to a team that "normally" scores 10 points, that should be taken account of. But that presupposes that the Buccaneers' point totals were a function of the Saints' defense in that game, but purely a function of its inherent capabilities in the other two games. Except that's clearly not the case. What if the Bucs played two other good defenses in the Jets and Patriots (and indeed, both have objectively identifiable good defenses). By doing this second-derivative type stuff you're punishing the Saints for supposedly being a bad defense, allowing 4 more points than they should have allowed, when in fact that's an unfair standard as you're comparing them with two other good defenses.

    The end result is just screwing your eyes up at a magic eye picture until you finally see the sailboat you wanted to see in the first place.

    That's why it's good to keep it simple. The Saints are allowing only 10.3 points of offense per game through the first three games. They're doing pretty damn well.
     
  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I thought your idea was interesting, but I figured you'd have to remove the scores of the team you're targeting, otherwise it would be skewed. So I took NO first 3 games and then looked at the averages for the 3 teams they played minus the NO games. That left us with a 2 game average (so very little info)

    NO vs Atl:
    Allowed 17 pts.

    Atl's 2 game avg:
    22 pts.

    ------------------

    NO vs TB:
    Allowed 14 pts.

    TB's 2 game avg:
    10 pts.

    ------------------

    NO vs StL:
    Allowed 7 pts.

    StL's 2 game avg:
    24.5 pts.


    So there you have it. I think that still shows that after 3 games, NO as a pretty good defense. (Granted some of those points could be from defense or STs, I just did this real quick.)
     
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  14. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    I think we might have a shot at this... if we can keep up with their offense, score early and often and count on our defense and/or special teams to make a play or two, we can squeak out a win. That being said, it'll be extremely hard and I won't be expecting a win.
     
  15. cjjr72984

    cjjr72984 New Member

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    The Saints haven't played the Rams this season though....At least not yet
     
  16. Ludacris

    Ludacris Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is true as I haven't seen Ellerbe or Wheeler brake up passes but I think their coverage skills will get better as they feel more comfortable in the defense. I'm hoping it shows this game. I do see an improvement in ball pursuit after the catch vs Dansby/Burnett though. Last year, after a catch, the receiver will go a long way as Dansby and Burnett were too slow to chase. At least these new LBs are flying around to make tackles for shorter gains.
     
  17. scra22

    scra22 New Member

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    Hello, another Saints fan here. I have to agree with other comments feeling like you're underestimating the defense... The defense is why we won games 1 and 2. I would hope after three games of solid play they are "for real" but we'll see. From what they have done so far, I am not sure how you can say the secondary "sucks." They are not giving up a ton of yards, points or big plays, though here and there they do. The offense has been the hindrance, struggling in the red zone the first two games, failing to protect Brees and failing to look like itself up until the 2nd half of the Cards game. Running game is a serious question mark too.

    In the Bucs game, 7 points came off Brees' pick-six. The other 7 points were allowed on a short field off of another Brees INT. As you can see, Brees had a pretty bad day in Tampa, could have been due to the rain but who knows - he has thrown a pick in every game. We are all thrilled with how the Saints defense has played but are kind of pinching ourselves not believing it's true. It's only been three games and I am just fearing the defense will take off its mask and the Spagnoulo defense will reappear somehow. As another Saints fan said in this thread earlier, the Saints offensive line has been very touch-and-go this season which is not normal. They have given up 10 sacks which is the most they have given up in a three-game period in the entire Brees era. Our best guard Jahri Evans had an undrafted rookie playing in his place last week and he got owned by Darnell Dockett. If Jahri is still too hurt to play Monday, that won't be good. If y'all's D-line was completely healthy I would fear for Brees' life.

    I'm not really sure how much better the defense could have done against them. They really only gave up 7 points to each offense. While the Bucs are a dumpster fire, the Cards had scored 24 and 25 the two games before. The Falcons are supposed to be a good offense (so the media tells me) so I would hope doing a good job against them was some kind of sign. You can only play the teams on your schedule and the 2012 defense gave up more points in one game than what the 2013 defense has given up in three games. We are getting a lot of pressure without having to blitz which is like a freaking mind-blowing thing after three years of Gregg Williams and one year of the worst defense I've ever seen who couldn't sniff a quarterback.

    .... All in all I think the homefield advantage helps us a ton and will lead to a Saints win, but obviously I don't want to underestimate the Dolphins. We may or may not be using more of RB Khiry Robinson if Ingram can't go (please let him not be able to go), and while he has showed much promise, he had a fumbling issue during preseason. Going along with Brees' protection and INT problems, if Miami can force turnovers on defense, if its O-line can protect Tannehill from our D-line's surprising ability to get pressure, I think those would be keys for Miami to win.

    Anyways, thanks for beating the Falcons! Cheers.
     
  18. CocoLoco

    CocoLoco New Member

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    I think you are really underrating the Saints defense. I realize that the defense was atrocious last season, but that was all due to scheme, along with the team being in complete disarray with the bounty gate fiasco. This is a stout defense.

    The defensive line is very good. I've been saying since the Saints drafted Cam Jordan that he'd be a stud, he is finally there. For 3-4 Ends the only player rated ahead of him according to PFF is JJ Watt, although Jordan has more hurries. John Jenkins, the 3rd round pick, has proven to be a great draft pick. Akiem Hicks, Foster and Walker are all very good as well. This is the strength of the defense, and the best defensive front I've seen the Saints have in years.

    The linebackers are serviceable, with Lofton being a good LB. Hawthorne is solid. Parys Haralson, who the Saints acquired from San Francisco for a 7th round pick was a nice pick up. Galette is a very good and active pass rusher at OLB, and he has potential star written all over him.

    The secondary is vastly improved, with the additions of Kennan Lewis and rookie Kenny Vaccaro. Vacarro is that swiss army knife on defense. I haven't seen a player like him on the Saints, ever. He lines up at Safety, at corner, and he even plays Linebacker. He is physical and plays mean and fast, something the Saints have been missing. Greer is getting up there in age, and although he's had injury problems he's healthy. He's always been solid when playing. The addition of Vaccaro also has revamped the play of Malcolm Jenkins, and Roman Harper who can now play more in the box (he can't cover, but he's excellent in the box). Jenkins is better suited as a nickel corner, and because of Kenny he's able to play more of that.

    I know it's early in the year still, but the improvements have been incredible. I always said that the Saints only needed a middle of the pack defense to really be scary, and I think they have that. The offense hasn't started rolling yet, but I expect it to. They were 37-11 from 09-11, and that was using a similar scheme that they are using now. The thing is, I think they actually have a lot more talent than in years past on the defensive side of the ball.
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Your defense is giving up over 5 yards a carry, and your running for a sub 4 average...your explanations?

    I agree this game comes down to how the dolphin players handle your home field advantage/crowd noise, majority of teams will fold under the pressure and lack of communication..
     
  20. CocoLoco

    CocoLoco New Member

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    That rushing stat doesn't mean all that much when the defense isn't allowing touchdowns. I know the competition hasn't been all that great, but 17, 7 (points given up by the defense against Tampa) and 7 is outstanding. 4th in YPG allow and 5th in PPG (should actually be 2nd being that one touchdown was from a pick 6) allowed is extremely impressive no matter the competition.

    I think Miami is legit, and they are doing great things. However, this is a hostile environment and The Saints are a different animal for home prime time games. If this game were in Miami, I think it would be around 50/50, but in New Orleans the Saints have a big edge. Hoping for an injury free game on both sides.
     
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree..your home field is the advantage..lucky bastards..
     
  22. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Colts were 9-1 at home in the last 10 home games. I am hoping Miami can pull it out. To be honest I don't have a lot of faith in a Dolphin victory, however I do think it is possible.
     
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    They're beatable. As has been pointed out, Buccaneers damn near did it. And they suck. A lot.
     
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  24. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Well 10.3 is good no matter how you slice it so I agree there and PPG as a stand alone stat has it's uses but IMO it's pretty limited.

    I don't think the +/- should be seen as "punishing" the Saints (or anyone else) at all. I doubt Tampa scores in the low teens and single digits for the entire season so the Saints' 14 points allowed will ultimately be a + in their favor. If Tampa does finish in the low teens the +/- system would show that the Bucs were a bad offense who consistently failed to score as much as opposing teams averaged allowing, w/o being overly generous to all of the defenses who shut them down.

    You say the Jets and Pats have good defenses, I think the jury is still out there. They've both played Tampa, Buffalo, and each other. The Pats are at Atlanta this week so we'll get a much broader look at them.
     
  25. CocoLoco

    CocoLoco New Member

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    Miami absolutely can win, they are a good team. For Miami to win they will need to get loads of pressure from the inside, which luckily for you guys has been a weakness for the Saints thus far. Jahri Evans, the best OL member on the team sat out last game because of injury, he will likely be playing this game. The first 2 games he just didn't look like himself. He is arguably the best guard in the game, and is an all-pro, but he has been awful. I'm hoping he gets back to his usual self, because the running game needs it desperately, and I am tired of seeing Brees hit so much. Another thing that would come with the pressure would be potential turnovers. Brees is short, and pressure in his face causes him to make mistakes. The Saints rely on keeping pass rush out of the middle because of his quick release, and it's been a problem.


    Bottom Line:

    Miami needs -
    pressure up the middle
    drives that keep the Saints offense off the field, converting third downs
    be aggressive with Graham and Sproles
    force turnovers

    Saints -
    pass protection, give Brees a clean pocket. If he has time he will rip any team apart.
    get pressure, force a mistake
    limit the run game
    don't give up big plays
     
  26. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    lol, I meant Arizona.
     
  27. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    Oh God. So it starts. We are already going to hear this 50 times during the broadcast. The guy is going to get more camera time than our own head coach. If only Joe Philbin put on a silver wig and yelled at empty space people might discuss him.

    I don't think Ryan is a bad coach or anything, but the amount of praise and attention the guy gets vs. the performance of his defenses is incredibly lopsided. He has had maybe one or two statistically good defenses as a DC. I'm not trying to dump on you (you are one of my favorite posters) don't tell FinD)), this just happens to be one of my things
     
  28. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    that old crafty silver fox is on his fourth team..
     
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  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    [​IMG]

    I wore my Spidey suit and everything.....
     
  30. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    f***
     

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