Game Planning Notes for Dolphins-Saints

I was just thinking that I have no use for the local papers since training camp

 

This is true, but what CK is doing is the next progression in what sports analysis is. Sites like Grantland, PFF, BR, and hell 538 are the perfect examples of this; they're are all turning to in-depth, analytical breakdowns that give us more and more info while being extremely popular. With the internet at our disposal more people can be more informed and use these articles to learn what they couldn't before. Sure newspapers need puff pieces, but they'd be silly not to supplement their online information with great breakdowns like these (see Draft Winds).

In summation the internet is a great place and I hope we see even more people consuming and writing in depth like this. If newspapers choose to ignore it and continue their slow decline, oh well.

 

For some reason I don't correlate the timing of a drop and release of a Qb with stats...

 

Nice work,CK. Thanks for your contributions.

 

Not one place in that entire post did I mention the words stats, metrics, quantitative, or numbers. I praised in-depth breakdowns and the internet's ability as a medium to foster those articles. I don't know why you have this weird vendetta against stats and their nomenclature, but please take it somewhere else where it's relevant and on topic.

 

I praised his breakdown as well, I was just making a point that the timing of a drop and release in relation to the cause of sacks is just good common sense, and doesn't correlate with stat sites..jmo.

 

I don't correlate PFF with stats either but that's just me..

 

This article wasn't from Bleacher Report, it was from CK...that makes a big difference...

 

Me too.

 

great writing as always Chris...

Keep it coming...

 

The all 32 niche is going to outperform team specific stuff, that's the nature of the beast.

IMO, and I think most would agree, your in-depth stuff gives us a much needed break from the mile wide-ankle deep stuff. You may not get the hits or recognition you deserve but you'll definitely get the respect.

 

Maybe we can occasionally sneak an extra DB on the field to try and contain Brees just a little bit.

 

Don't be a cynic, man! It'll poison your journalism and you'll never get it back (not accusing you of it now).

 

Great, great write up, Chris. I won't even pretend to understand the Xs and Os as many people who here do, but I know a little bit (high school ball) and reading these articles make the technical stuff that much more easier to understand and more interesting to read.
Thanks.

 

Would you rather be a rich schill or a survivor doing something they love? I ask myself this all the time and I waffle constantly...I'd like to believe the latter...but I see dollar signs. Real bummer is achieving neither haha =P

Either way for what its worth once again, your articles are fantastic. Between some key posters here, and your articles, I grow ever more in love with the game of football as my understanding for all the nuances grows. I half love / hate you guys for making me a ****** obsessed with Dolphins in my spare time and sundays. And occasional Monday / Thursdays / Saturdays (haha - Saturdays. Playoffs? what are those? =P)

 

I don't know, I have to keep that optimism. The internet can't convey this, but I'm trying write this without any hubris or anything. I, a dumbass college kid, started my secondroundstats blog back in January with the goal to write about stats and numbers in the NFL Draft. It doesn't get any more technical than that. What average person is going to read about the sack time for Alex Okafor or yards after contact of Tyler Eifert? I made it on a Wordpress template with a crappy black/white layout. I told myself before I launched the website that I would be happy if I hit 100 views in a month. In the 4 months leading up to the draft, I hit 40k views. That means 40,000 times someone decided to click their way onto something I wrote between classes, at night, and in whatever spare time I could. That's nothing to a site like Bleacher Report, they'll top that it the next 30 seconds - but it meant a lot to me. All that hard work and effort coming to fruition. Not only that, but bunches of people on Twitter, through comments, and on these boards offered great advice to better my analysis and writing. People cared or were interested enough to take time out of their day to provide real, constructive criticism.

A month after the draft I get a call from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who want to bring me down to talk with them/ interview with them for a position in starting an analytics department. Five months from when I posted my first hand-charted QB evaluation on the internet, I was sitting across a desk from Mark Dominik showing him reams of printed excel spreadsheets. He tells me that he read every single one of my posts before the draft. I didn't get the job, but what an experience! Absolutely the most interesting, awesome thing that could have happened to me. Without the internet, how do I ever get that opportunity? 30 years ago I would have had to write a book/ newsletter ala Bill James and would have had a maximum of 30 readers. Nothing would have come of it and I would have toiled away in obscurity.

Sure it's easy to get caught up in poorly written junk articles, nasty commenters, and petty squabbles but it's hard for me not to wax poetic about the power of the internet. How else could all that happen for a 20 year old kid who just started writing on a whim? So for now, I remain optimistic, we'll see what happens next.

 

Nice write-up Chris. Do you think Miami borrows a page from Atlanta last week and tries to shorten this game a bit? I think if some of those key defensive players do in fact miss the game (Misi, Soliai, Wake), Miami might be better off trying to control the clock and keep New Orleans' offense off the field rather than trying to go point-for-point with them like the way the Atlanta game was played out.

 

Challenge in life is doing both.

 

I was thinking the same thing and I kept running into the problem of how exactly do they implement that strategy?

 

I guess my thought would be if you get the ball first, try a shot play downfield for a quick score or if you can grind out a drive and score early to get the crowd out of it - that's a start. If you can get a stop after that or limit them to a field goal, you can then (hopefully) establish the running game and control the clock. If there's one thing the Saints D has been susceptible to this year, it's stopping the run.

In essence, get an early lead, then try and play keep-away as best you can. I think that's crucial, especially if some of those defensive guys like Wake and Misi can't play. I think the last thing you want to do is let New Orleans get out ahead early, like Atlanta did last week, and have to play catch-up. I think they can turn it into a track meet more effectively than Miami can, especially if Miami's limited on defense. I like Miami's odds more in a 17-14 type of game than I do in a 35-28 type of game.

 

From a Saints' fan perspective: Definitely the key to controlling the clock would be a sustained run/short pass approach. Effective use of screens can go a long way in that regard because it challenges the Saints' edge rushers to have to do some play recognition rather than just all-out to the QB. Atlanta had a little bit of success with screens in the second half against the Saints but then stopped doing it. I think the Saints have been better at stopping the run that it may appear. They tend to give up one long run per game but perform very soundly for the rest of the contest - which is certainly better than surrendering a steady average gain.

Tampa made it close on the other side of the ball. By limiting the Saints' effectiveness on third down and by forcing a couple of turnovers, the game remained well under control. I think that remains the most important aspect for the Dolphins. If the Saints aren't punting, it doesn't really matter how the Dolphins move the ball and score, they're just going to have to get it done one way or the other to keep up.

 

Actually, site was inaccessible for the whole day for me. I had to read it at FH (where finomenal had posted a link and I five-starred the thread, since some baboon had one starred it.)

Great read. Also, I see why you didn't bother posting it there.

 

Thanks for pointing that out. I haven't been able to watch a whole Saints game yet this year. How much was the weather a factor in the Tampa game after the delay was over? It looked pretty rough from the highlights I saw.

And I agree, making the Saints punt is a must-have in order for Miami to stay in this game. My biggest fear is trailing early and trying to keep up. Last week that special teams fumble-recovery on a punt return was a huge spark, but you can't really bank on that week-to-week. I think Miami's got better odds winning a grinding, low-scoring game than a track meet.

 

Well, actually against the Bucs, Doug Martin was 29 for 140. So that was certainly an example of poor performance against the run by the Saints. But the other two were sub-90 yard days with a single run or two accounting for much of the yardage. The weather in Tampa was pretty bad in the first half but got a lot better by halftime. Doug Martin is just a good back - and the Saints focused on stopping Freeman and on a high third-down effectiveness in getting the Bucs off the field.

I think Lamar Miller has that big play threat that is precisely what can hurt the Saints. A combination of Miller's effectiveness, good use (and timing) of screens, and third-down proficiency by Tannehill would certainly challenge the Saints D (and in turn challenge the Saints offense to make sure they're effective).

 

Gee, I wonder who that could be? (Nublar 7)

 

Chris is no Omar Kelly.

 

And how would they know you are spending time here unless they are here too (hypocritical) or stalking you (creepy).

What is their major malfunction?

 

There are some strange people over there.

 

Probably just the internet jerkwad theory in action

 

If you two-timed on her, someday you'll two-time on me too.

 

Huh??

Did someone rip off my clever handle??

 

The DBoston80 guy over there was as awesome as it gets.