3-1, are the Fins just Overacheiving ? Look at Stats.

Stats don't lie until I don't like them and then they do. Lol@ trying to diss Patterson when he has been injuried since week one. Also if you want to insult Tannehill try to do a better job than calling him an ex wr.

 

Yeah..I'm an apologist. You have no idea how funny that is to many on here.

 

Ok now we can add "apologist" to the list.

What was I making an excuse for exactly. I said you have no idea what you're talking about and I stand by it, how is that making excuses?

 

It's 10.7, so give me over on 9.5 wins. meaning 10 or more. If you want me to take 11 wins..I need you to lay a price.

 

So by this logic we wd be better off w/ Carp then Sturgis. Oh, and paying him $2.5 million more to be "better."

 

I think you must be on something or off of something that you should be one.

 

IIRC the Dolphins were 1st in red zone scoring, top 10 in red zone D and points allowed prior to last night. Yards are irrelevant.

As far as I'm concerned, last night was expected.

 

I believe there's been 2,467 post stating, with facts, that TANNEHILL DOES NOT HOLD THE BALL TOO LONG! Good lord. If the line keeps playing the way it has been, he'll only be able to hold the ball for 1.47 seconds, which clearly is too long.

 

WOW!! Only wrong about one thing, EVER, in your life!!! CRAZY!!!

 

Who is Jon Huston?

 

That wasn't a negotiation. Those were the terms of my bet offer. and I like cash when I win a bet.

 

We are 3-1 and i'll take that....According to these experts on TV we were supposed to lose to the Browns, I fully expected the Colts to beat us, I was bracing myself for a loss at home to Atlanta because we love to win on the road and then lose at home, and I was ready to take a beatdown from Brees and the Saints.
Here is how I see things going as of right now...

Baltimore-loss, I just don't think we will beat them. They have our number every time we play them 3-2.

Buffalo-Win, home game against the Bills who are an overachieving team and I think we win 4-2.

@New England- Come on man, Loss all day, Brady will find a way and we go down 4-3.

Cincinnati- We can win that game, and I expect us to Bengals are a lot like us 5-3.

@Tampa Bay- Bucs are bad. No Freeman, a rookie QB, a new HC by then lol win 6-3.

Chargers- Philip Rivers should be in the MVP conversation at seasons end...Loss 6-4.

Carolina- This game I have circled as a key game for us...Pivotal win....7-4.

@NY Jets- Rex Ryan is a good coach like it or not, loss 7-5

@Pittsburgh- I think by then the Steelers will be playing well despite being out of the race...7-6

New England- A must win and a statement game at home, we can do it!...8-6

@Buffalo- by then the Bills will be out of the race imo and win sweep em...9-6

NYJets- Home cooking prevails and we beat Ryan and the Jets again....10-6

Playoff teams
1.Denver
2.New England
3.Indy
4.Cleveland-thats right baby

Wild Card
KC, Houston, Cincinnati, Tennessee, San Diego, MIAMI, and Baltimore will all be fighting for that last spot. 10 wins get you in this year in my opinion.

 

Ever read something so stupid that you want to stab yourself in the brain with a rusty spoon?

 

It's a decent idea, questioning whether the Dolphins are over achieving or not based on the statistics.

Scoring 91 points and allowing 91 points is in itself a factor usually steers a team toward an 8-8 record.

Negative turnover differential is also a negative factor that way. Philbin is right in pointing out that Miami is the only winning team with a negative turnover margin.

Anecdotally I know that a lot of people walked out of the Atlanta game thinking that Atlanta outplayed Miami in the game but somehow Miami managed to steal the victory. It seemed like it was OK for everyone to admit that when the team was 3-0 and everything was great and people almost even said it with pride, but of course now that Miami has taken a bad loss I'm sure defensiveness kicks in and the sentiment flips the other way.

The big factor heading in Miami's favor is the strength of schedule. The Browns are now 2-2, the Colts are 3-1, the Falcons a gamely 1-3 and the Saints are 4-0. Pro Football Reference uses a Simple Rating System that accounts for some of these things and they have Miami as the 8th highest rated team in the league. That indicates more toward 10-6 than 8-8.

On the other hand you can drill deeper into the segments of the team and that will be discouraging because on offense the Dolphins are 16th in points scored, 19th in yards per play, 21st in 1st downs, 19th in net yards per pass attempt (big gambling stat) and 25th in turnover percentage.

Yet it doesn't get any better on defense as Miami is 18th in points allowed, 20th in yards per play, 20th in net yards per pass attempt (again a big gambling predictor), 27th in 1st downs given up, and 17th in turnovers.

You can combine some of those, particularly net yards per pass attempt which Joe Philbin himself has espoused when it comes to predicting and evaluating performance. On that that basis, net yards per pass attempt on offense minus net yards per pass attempt on defense, the Dolphin rank 22nd in the league.

That's not good enough and you can bet Joe Philbin knows that stat, and that it bothers him...in addition to the negative turnover differential. The Dolphins are not winning by what Joe Philbin feels are legitimate means.

Pro Football Reference has another stat they call Expected Points which they define as expected points contributed by all offense, and then the same stat for the defense. The numbers for both range from very positive to very negative (+86.46 Denver Broncos offense, -78.76 Jacksonville Jaguars offense, +65.78 Kansas City Chiefs defense, -50.93 San Diego Chargers defense).

Combine the two and Miami ranks 28th in the league...in the Bottom 10 along with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4), New York Jets (2-2), Minnesota Vikings (1-3), Oakland Raiders (1-3), Arizona Cardinals (2-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4), New York Giants (0-4), St. Louis Rams (1-3) and Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4).

How accurate is that statistic? Well, aside from the Dolphins, one has to go all the up to the 10th ranked team on that basis before you find another team with a winning record. In fact, 9 of the 10 teams ranked in the Top 10 on this statistic have winning records, with the only exception being the 1-2 Carolina Panthers.

 

Unfortunately you are not going to get a lot of support on this forum regarding the firing of Ireland. Most of the fans on this forum are quite happy to settle for the Dolphins being merely mediocre. They want to blame everything that happened during the time Parcells was here on only Parcells. They figure that Ireland's only job as GM during his first three years here was to wipe Parcells A**. Therefore he is given a pass for all the bad draft picks and free agent signings during those first three years.

Those of us who want Ireland gone because we don't believe in him as an NFL GM, are told that we are not true Dolphin fans. Of course the fact I have been attending Dolphin games since 1966 and have traveled to over 30 away games, including this past weeks game in New Orleans, doesn't matter to Ireland apologists. They see nothing wrong in the fact the team is made up of more starters who were signed as free agents than actual draft picks. Of course when you are satisfied with a mediocre record year after year, I guess having solid drafts is irrelevant.

So expect to be told your not a true fan and that expecting playoffs and SB wins is not really important to these fans. Ireland has been here six years and the owner thinks he is great. That appears to be enough for many of the fans on this forum. The fact the OL is terrible and the secondary is one of the worst in the entire NFL doesn't matter to these fans. As long as the Dolphins can win 7-9 games a year, they are happy with Ireland as their teams GM.

I agree with you though. The only thing that matters is the playoffs and winning the SB. I just never see that happening as long as Ireland is in charge of selecting players for this team.

 

bulll#@$#@$#@#@

 

You cannot even get your Star Wars analogies right. That was nonsensical.

 

Pretty freakin insulting to this board...Gross miss characterization..

 

These stats are overrated..how's that..

As of last week, dannell Ellerbe was 1 tackle shy of leading the NFL in tackles.

Just win babies..

 

Hopefully you don't bring that attitude to the stadium Sunday..

Your team is three and 1 by the way...I believe you projected 1 and 3 after four...you should whistling fu&$in Dixie.

 

Kind of an ironic post. You say stats are overrated (misleading) then cite a stat which is extremely prone to being misleading and resulting in the overrating of linebackers.

 

That was his point.

 

that's why I mentioned it..

If you were looking at these stats this quarter without knowing the record of the team, would you be able to predict a 3 and 1 team?..

 

I'm sorry, this is patently offensive to anyone who is paying attention to Tannehill this year. Did you not watch the first three games? I mean, I could almost allow the rest simply because everyone has an opinion, etc. etc. and I generally respect people's right to an opinion, but to claim that Tannehill is pitiful is so far from the truth, I don't even know where to start. Kid is one of the best young QBs out there, and just won us a game a little over a week ago against the Falcons, and outgunned the guy everyone considers the best young QB out there the week before that. Oh, and when we ran the ball for a total of 20 yards against Cleveland, just who was that who picked apart the Browns in the second half leading us to victory?

Sheesh!

 

No. And that's kind of the point. At least where it concerns predictions of future results, anyway.

 

That's because the Saints game skewed them.

Before the Saints game, without looking at the scores, their team PS placed them as the 7th best team in the NFL.

The defense however has played 3 subpar games in a row, but the offense has offset 2 of those. Just looking at the numbers now, I would say it points to 2-2, but that's because of the Saints numbers being so bad.

 

BTW, Philly...don't send me any PM's, or I'll block you.

You want a bet...make it in here, so there are witnesses.

 

Agreed but does that mean we just disregard the Saints game altogether? Don't the numbers being bad in that game say something suggestive about how good the team is generally? Or are we just removing that game right out of the data as being not indicative of anything?

 

The point for me is there no way of discerning these stats into projections, one could say they are a predictor of future losses, or one could say we didn't play our best and these stats could improve over the next quarter.

 

Which one of these stats show how important a coaching mistake like not calling the right play in a perfect situation means to the games outcome ( 3rd and an inch), which stat shows how crucial the fumble was by Tannehill at the end of the half while streaking down the middle of the field for an easy pickup first down?.... He made the play, he didn't handle the ball, we got into position to close on a crucial first down, we choked the call..

 

I can't believe anyone would want Sean Smith back.

That is all.

 

I still don't see how that ball popped out. It seemed like the guy barely touched him or the ball and yet out it came. I guess I would expect someone who has played receiver to be even better than a QB at protecting the ball while running. To be honest I find it pretty discouraging.

 

Lol. This.

 

I would toss that game seeing as how MNF games in NO tend to end like that. 09' Pats lost 38-17 there as well with Brees throwing 5 TD's.

 

Yes...


Here are the scores and opponents for the last 5 years when the Saints play at home on MNF..

2008 - 51-29 defeated Green Bay
2009 - 35-27 defeated Atlanta
2009 - 38-17 defeated New England
2010 - no home MNF games
2011 - 49-24 defeated NY Giants
2012 - 28-13 defeated Philadelphia
2013 - 38-17 defeated Miami

===

And the Box score from the Pats 38-17 loss to the Saints showed that Brady had 0 TDs and 2 INTs... Mulroney and Moss both had fumbles...

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=291130018

 

I think I share my section in the stadium with everyone on my ignore list. Should have heard all the pissing and moaning the first home game vs. Atlanta, I think a few even left early. Typical Loser Fans. Get in your seats before kickoff and Try to enjoy the game for once !

 

Excellent post, outlier being the Saints game.