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The Dropsies

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ckparrothead, Oct 8, 2013.

  1. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

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    I've seen a couple posts insinuating that this may be on the QB. And normally I'd agree. Henne contributed to the over abundance of drops for sure. Ball placement and touch were awful.

    I'm pretty confident in saying that the drops this season are mostly not Tannehill's fault.

    To name a few:

    Miller's TD drop on final drive against ATL
    Brandon Gibson's drop on the opening drive against CLE
    Clay's drop on final drive against ATL
    Hartline's 3rd down drop immediately following the Wallace natural step out of bounds challenge against BALT
    Wallace bomb against NO that hit him in the numbers and fell through his hands

    Wallace has at least a couple more that were almost solely on him as well.

    But the examples above can in no way shape or form be put on the QB. I'd have to examine the others to decipher.
     
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  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Also a Clay drop right before the failed 57 yard field goal. That was purely on Clay, not in any way about ball placement. Same with Dion Sims' drop against New Orleans.

    I think I recall two more Wallace drops that were definitely not ball placement issues. One for certain against Baltimore, but I think there was another earlier in the year, not the deep one you mention against New Orleans.
     
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  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    He does have three, most of anyone else I believe.
     
  4. Marino1384

    Marino1384 Member

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    That one hurt, the clay drop... I think we should of ran a draw on second or 3rd just to get closer. Even that drop was short of the first tho. Rather of gone conservative and hope miller breaks a run or a dump off then how we played it
     
  5. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I hate drops. They really piss me off. Hated it when Clayton would have an absolutely fantastic catch over the top of some DB, then drop a stupid crossing route w/ the ball hitting him in stride. Ugh! I do wish we had some receivers w/ his attitude about the ball though. He wanted that damn ball when it was in the air.
     
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  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Seemed to me like with it being 3rd & 17 after the sack, all Tannehill wanted was to get those lost yards back and make the field goal doable. He did that with his pass to Clay, but Clay dropped it.

    And honestly? I don't think Clay's touchdown was really a touchdown. We got away with one because the initial call on the field was touchdown. He double clutched that ball while he was out of bounds.
     
  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I believe the metrics that matter started turning against us in the Atlanta game. That's when I felt we went from outplaying our opponent to being outplayed. Those could easily turn back around in the Buffalo game. Season not over by a long shot.
     
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  8. Rances

    Rances New Member

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    There is no doubt about the fact that Mike Wallace has been a supreme disappointment. His drop tally is inexcusable. Yet there is something to be said for hitting a guy in places where he has grown accustomed to making plays. there have been four or five times this year that Tannehill has had chances to alleviate the pressure on Wallace making a catch by simply leading him further with the football downfield. They also don't seem to be consistently on the same page, when one expects a sit in the zone the other is thinking to keep running across the field. Rhythm and timing along with ball placement are all contributing factors to their inability to connect.

    Tannehill and Jordan are two guys that fan base has SO much invested in that they are going to get some blame shifting going on when a play isn't made and they are going to receive Extra Credit when they are even remotely involved with a play being made. I wasn't crazy about the Wallace signing when they made it based on value so i'm not his biggest fan. He has definitely missed opportunities to help this team win games, but some opportunities to really connect with him have been missed by his QB as well.
     
  9. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    You like it more than the one with Wes Welker and Chris Chambers?
     
  10. Lloyd Heilbrunn

    Lloyd Heilbrunn Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When the wallet has 60 million in it, you should manage......:cry:
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Man. I wonder how secretly pissed off Joe Philbin is at Mike Wallace.

    Joe Philbin is Mr. "keep your mouth shut and do your job" when it comes to player behavior. He likes guys that keep their heads down, just do their job. I believe that "keeps his mouth shut" part was an actual verbatim quote Philbin let slip when he was talking about a player on defense, might have been Chris Clemons or Koa Misi or someone like that. Seems like something he really admires.

    And when it comes to receivers, he's all about guys getting open in man coverage and catching the football. We hear him talking about catching the football so much over the two years. You get the feeling he hates drops.

    Joe Philbin also let it be known pretty explicitly in 2012 following the trade of Brandon Marshall that he hates the concept of a number one wide receiver. He doesn't like there to be any pressure to get a certain guy involved, he wants it all to be based on the game planning and to flow naturally based on the coverage.

    So in comes Mike Wallace, the number one receiver who talks a lot of noise in the week leading up to his matchup with Joe Haden and then lays an egg, talks a lot and creates a side story about his matchup with Keenan Lewis and then lays another egg, chirped about the game plan after the first game of the season following a two-touchdown victory, chirped about the team needing to throw more deep balls after the Saints game, has had a constant running story line about whether he's getting enough opportunities on the field befitting his contract, and who also leads the team in drops. Oh, and he's also not running his routes right and even not knowing the play call, which we know from last year kept guys like Rishard Matthews and Lamar Miller off the field and inactive for a very long time.

    He's essentially been everything Joe Philbin hates. I doubt he's truly an a-hole, but you know what? Neither was Chad Johnson.
     
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  12. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    I don't think Mike Wallace in Miami has been someone that anyone likes, outside of maybe opponents.
     
  13. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    when you don't have to play the run, the coverage is greater & drops are more frequent
    I still think the Offensive Line is the key to resolving offensive woes across the board...

    has there been any talk about the potential status of Dustin Keller in 2014?
     
  14. Finrunner

    Finrunner Season Ticket Holder

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    I'm sure he's quite frustrated, putting it mildly.

    You touched on it, but there was the play in the game - and I remember Bess running similar plays - where Wallace ran a quick-in route and then sort of took one step back to the outside but then settled. Tannehill threw it like Wallace was supposed to keep running out. If I'm not mistaken, Rich Gannon commented on the play and mentioned that Tannehill had to be thinking Wallace was going back outside. And the play was there for a first down and more, and it would have given Wallace a chance for YAC. Instead, incomplete pass setting up bad down and distance. There's a lot of quotes about Tannehill and Wallace "not being on the same page", and that's accurate. But a lot of times, one guy's on the right page, and the other guy is on the wrong page. Given some of the criticisms of Wallace routes (and the one I mentioned above is just one of them), I think it's pretty likely that it's more often Wallace not being on the same page. I'm sure there's still some adjusting Tannehill needs to do for Wallace's speed, especially on long routes, but the intermediate ones, too. However, this isn't the first game that Wallace has been questioned on maybe giving up on a route.

    Not only is it going to drive Philbin crazy, but it potentially is a trust issue for the QB, too. If I'm Tannehill, on third and seven with under two minutes down by four, can I even look Wallace's way on an option route? You don't want stuff like that in a quarterback's head. And then you can add the dropsies on top of the lazy routes. Because along with the six drops, you have incompletions on the sidelines where Wallace is unaware where he is, and you have routes that are thrown correctly that should be completions and big plays, but turn out to be incompletions because of laziness or not knowing where to be.

    At least 4 or 5 more (and maybe more than that) of the 16 targets last game, should have been completions to Wallace. That's a lot of yards left off the table, and probably quite a few points, too, in a game we lost by three.
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Completely agree.

    I wrote the same hours after the game:

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ys-from-miamis-26-23-loss-to-baltimore/page/4

     
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  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I see now it's become the flavor du jour to criticize Ryan Tannehill's deep ball.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/1703/ryan-tannehill-i-have-plenty-of-arm

    Fact of the matter is Pro Football Focus measures these things. Not necessarily judges them subjectively, measures them. They had Ryan Tannehill 9th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks for Deep Ball Accuracy in 2012, and they have him tied for 7th out of 34 in 2013.

    SMH.
     
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  17. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's the availability heuristic in play. You see some big time missed 40+ yard passes that may have been in critical points in the game and think "That's happening all the time!!!". When you're forgetting that 26 yard pass in the middle of the drive that was critical to getting the offense down the field. It's unfortunate because it ends up forming the narrative in the media and among fans.

    To be fair Tannehill's deep ball wasn't particularly great at A&M, so I'm really just happy that he's improved drastically as he moved into the NFL and grown.
     
  18. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    Yeah, that one was totally Wallace's fault. There was a LB in zone coverage to the right of the field where Wallace was running so I have little doubt he should have sat down and caught the ball where Tannehill threw it.

    I think another problem is how cerebral Hartline is while Wallace isn't as cerebral. I have little doubt that Hartline in the same situation would have sat down and caught the ball as opposed to continuing to run into the zone coverage of the LB. Whether Wallace becomes more cerebral or Tannehill realizes this remains to be seen, but if they get on the same page watch out.
     
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  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Yeah that's been a pleasant surprise.

    But I thought Tannehill had something interesting to say in response to the criticism.

    Interesting that he brought up TRUST considering his accuracy level with Brian Hartline on deep passes from 2012 to 2013 is 15 of 28 (counting one drop), and his deep ball with everyone else over those years is 15 of 39 (counting two drops). That's 54% "accuracy" versus 38% "accuracy".

    What it just confirms to me is what I already know which is that while we can sit here and talk about the final 36 inches of ball placement on a 1900 inch throw, which constitutes talking about a deep ball being 98% accurate versus 100% accurate, the receiver can affect the "accuracy" of the throw a lot more than that by seeing the ball in the air, adjusting his speed, putting the defensive back in jail, accelerating through the catch and timing his break on the football. That I think is what Tannehill is referring to when he talks about "trust" being a factor with Mike Wallace.
     
  20. PhiNomina

    PhiNomina White-Collar Redneck

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    I know I keep harping on this - but Wallace makes 50/50 balls more like 10/90 balls. He is awful at timing his jumps and outplaying the defender. A stat that simply measures deep ball accuracy doesn't account if one guy is throwing to Mike Wallace - who literally requires a perfectly thrown ball, vs Brandon Marshall or Anquan Boldin who just require you to throw it up and they'll outplay the defender.

    I think we're vastly overrating the number of QBs who consistently hit receivers in stride 40 yards down the field.

    And I know Wallace is small - but TY Hilton made a ridiculous play on Grimes. You see other smaller WR make plays all the time.
     
  21. Finrunner

    Finrunner Season Ticket Holder

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  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think that's a sign that Wallace isn't comfortable yet in Miami because truthfully he was good at the top of the catch in Pittsburgh. That used to be one of his strengths as a player, that he doesn't need the deep ball to be perfectly thrown, dropped in the bucket perfectly in stride. It really wasn't thrown perfect very often by Big Ben, Wallace just showed a great ability to go get it.

    The fact that Big Ben rarely hit Wallace just perfectly in stride on those deep passes brings me back to the fact that you can't judge Tannehill's deep ball accuracy in a vaccuum. You can't just look at it and say man, he's only throwing a catchable ball on 45% of deep throws? That sucks! You have to put that in context with the rest of the league because the NFL is competition-based. You literally are playing against 31 other teams, one contest at a time. Having a QB with a 90 passer rating doesn't get you into the playoffs if there are 20 other QBs with 90+ passer ratings.

    From 2012 through Week 5 of 2013, there were 33 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 30 deep balls (20+ yards downfield). Ryan Tannehill's catch+drop percentage is 7th highest among them. Right behind Drew Brees who is 6th, Cam Newton 5th, Russell Wilson 4th, Colin Kaepernick 3rd, Peyton Manning 2nd and Aaron Rodgers 1st. He's also 8th in yards per attempt on the deep ball, and that doesn't even account for drops.
     
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  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Did you?

    :shifty:
     
  24. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Oh I do, think he has been a much needed addition.

    The one thing I hope Sherman has learned is not to disrupt the proven approach of spreading the ball around to BLine, Gibby and Clay and just adding Wallace to the mix instead of trying to feed him the ball.

    In that sense his role has not been ironed out yet, he is more of a 12 target type of Wr rather than the 17 we saw vs Baltimore, and to make the deep shot work they have to keep taking them.
     
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  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Incidentally I also agree with this part. The perception becomes reality in the absence of either the will or availability to use objective resources that can confirm or refute it.

    The same really has happened over the last 10 years with the defense and its ability to defend tight ends. There's been a perception that Miami's defense has "always" been terrible defending tight ends. But really, that's just not true. They're awful at it this year, but over the last decade their average ranking against tight ends from a fantasy perspective (normal, non-PPR scoring) has been 16th in the league. Average. Very average. But every time a tight end catches a football it's just another moment that drives home the perception that Miami sucks and has always sucked against tight ends...because there's no objective confirmation. Everything is all tunnel vision, looking at Miami alone and nobody else.

    Sure, part of that is lack of easy resources at peoples' disposal to check these things. That's why I love PFF so much. Their stats provide easy ability to confirm or refute a LOT of perceptions that are BS.

    But honestly, a lot of it is also laziness. Not necessarily laziness on the part of the common fan (although there's that, too)...laziness by media who are paid to seek out tough to find resources in order to bring light to the facts, but often instead just end up doing the same thing the fans are doing ("oh god another tight end catch! we ALWAYS suck against tight ends!")
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Here's some great perspective. This is a video compilation put together from Wallace's time in Pitt and meant to show how fast he is. Here are the deep throws from that video:

    versus Cleveland, versus Tampa Bay, versus Oakland (back to back to back)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=38

    versus Miami & versus Tampa Bay (back to back)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=82

    versus Cincinnati
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=108

    versus Cleveland
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=117

    versus Miami, versus Tampa Bay, versus Cleveland & versus NE (four plays in a row)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=150

    versus Detroit
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=197

    versus San Diego
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=219

    versus Cincinnati
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=229

    versus Green Bay
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=248

    Repeat of a play versus Miami that shows better that Wallace had to slow down for the underthrow, allowing Clemons back into the play.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=279

    versus the New York Giants
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfm77mdTU4&feature=player_detailpage#t=361

    Among them, I counted four deep verticals that were thrown to Wallace in stride. They were:

    1. The one where he torched Miami's Jason Allen,
    2. Over the deep middle against Cleveland
    3. A broken play against New England,
    4. A deep ball against Cincinnati at about 3:54 in the video
    5. A deep ball against the Giants at about 6:04 in the video

    That's basically 5 deep catches out of 16 where Big Ben didn't under throw the ball and hit Mike Wallace in stride. And keep in mind that over the years according to Pro Football Focus only 50 of 122 deep balls to Wallace were scored a catch or a drop.

    So legitimately, how many times did Big Ben really hit Mike Wallace "in stride" during their time together? Maybe like 10 times in 4 years?
     
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  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Some more notes.

    1. I have the Dolphins at 72/28 pass-run split. That's really lopsided.

    2. Ryan Tannehill is much more efficient when he's utilizing offensive motion to identify the defense. He's done it 36 times and completed 24 of 34 passes for 272 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. He's only been sacked 2 times on those 36 plays, literally less than half his rate on plays without offensive motion. I believe he has a 114 passer rating when he uses motion and a 79 passer rating when he doesn't. I think Joe Philbin doesn't like motion that much because it slows down the offense.

    3. Ryan Tannehill has spent a lot of time in the gun. How much time? At least 86% of his time.

    4. Tannehill has taken 27 pass/sack snaps from under center. He's not been awesome on them. He's 13 of 22 for 135 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT.

    5. He's way more likely to get sacked on plays from under center than shotgun plays. He's been sacked 5 times on those 27 pass plays from under center. Perhaps this is the real reason Miami has not called more play-action passes. At least 4 of those 5 sacks were on play-action.

    6. Are the Dolphins predictable because of this? Some think so but I'm not about to make much of a case for it. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas have combined for 55 runs when Tannehill lined up under center, versus 27 dropbacks. That's a 2-1 ratio and it's not that big a deal as far as formational tip-offs go, IMO. From the shotgun it's 90-10 and that's a much bigger tip-off but also is not terribly uncommon for the shotgun.
     
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  29. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Seems that the cure would be inside draws from the shotgun, however that requires a Rb with a different sort of skillset then Miller or Thomas.
     
  30. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    pray tell, which one of these proven bulls cannot catch the ball, Hartline, Gibson or Wallace? or is that you think RT is at fault. CK has supplied the answers to these questions elaborately on several occasions on the forum, in articles he has written & once again in the post he made on this thread. it takes a little time for everyone to get on the same page & some blocking, with the establishment of a run-game would take a lot of pressure of the passing attack. my big & only real concern is the offensive line at this point in our development.
     

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