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Concerning Statistic

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ckparrothead, Oct 25, 2013.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Ryan Tannehill has accumulated the following statistics in his ~6 games against AFC East division opponents:

    97 of 195 for 1100 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT, 18 Sacks, 5 Fumbles, 3 Fumbles Lost

    In the 15 games against non-AFC East opponents, he has accumulated the following statistics:

    318 of 508 for 3771 yards, 15 TD, 14 INT, 43 Sacks, 11 Fumbles, 5 Fumbles Lost

    That's a drop in completion rate from 62.5% to 49.7%. That's a drop in yards per completion from an 11.9 average to an 11.3 average. That's a rise in interception percentage from 2.76% to 3.08%. Dropbacks per sack falls from 12.8x to 11.8x. He goes from losing a fumble every three games to losing one every two games.

    The most significant AND consistent difference is the completion percentage. This is not just a function of one game sullying the stats. He hasn't completed more than 60% of his passes against an AFC East opponent a single time. Only once did he even get above 55%.

    In the other 15 games, he completed 60% or more of his passes 10 times. He was above 55% in 13 of those 15 games.

    You can go one of three ways on this.

    1. Sample error. Just not a big enough sample pool, you don't believe there's a significant trend.

    2. Film study. Your division opponents will know you the best. Coaches do the most extensive (prior to game week) film study on division opponents.

    3. Emotions. Everybody gets jazzed up to play the other teams in their division. Everyone except the man who didn't know which teams were in what conference on Hard Knocks?
     
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  2. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    I choose 1 for now. Give it another year.
     
  3. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    hmm...
    I...umm...
    damn

    The only thing I got is that he didn't play much in the 2nd Jets game last year...but....he probably wouldn't have done anything significant enough there to bring those numbers back up to something palatable.

    I got nothin'...
     
  4. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    We have had one out of our six games against AFC East opponents this year, our QB's second year.

    So you are pretty much looking at just his rookie season's AFC East games versus his first AND second year games against everyone else. Not a fair comparison. Any rookie year compared to a second year for a QB is not apples to apples.

    Not concerned (yet.). Get back to me when we have equal distribution of first and second year games on both sides of the comparison.
     
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  5. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    His only "good" game against Buffalo he completed 52% of his passes, and hasn't thrown a single TD against NE in 2 games ...

    You know what CK, fck you for pointing this out...now I'm a sad panda..

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. gandalfin

    gandalfin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I also tend to agree with sample size because of some of the extenuating circumstances relating to the sample size. One third of the games were against the Pats so one third of the games were against a Superbowl contender. One game of the three against Buffalo was an away game off a short week during a part of the season when they were slumping. You could also site the Jets game that the Jets always have a good defense although that would be a stretch. Lastly one of those games (last weeks) was one of the poorer games Tannehill has played regarding turnovers.

    I would like to see how this discrepancy in the stats trends over the rest of the year.
     
  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    To me, it is quite simple, THill never checks down to a running back, the sort of completion percentage booster, this is one of the ways Henne's completion percentage could look good, but his results were poor to mediocre.

    What is odd to me about that is the WCO classically uses those passes to running backs like long hand offs, yet Reggie Bush's presence could not goad the Staff into using that function of the WCO.

    Yr #2 of Sherman/Philbin I'm beginning to form my likes and dislikes about how they do things.
     
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  8. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Agreed.

    I suppose I could have just fist bumped.
     
  9. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    AFCE is a tough division defensively.
     
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  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Another factor is drops, not sure how that would effect his completion percentage overall, but THill does have a lot of passes simply dropped.

    A guess would be a 2% increase.

    Before I become a Tannehill apologist of the Henne sort, what stands out to me 11 turnovers to 6 Td's, even a fumble recovered is effectively a ruined play and generates negative field position.

    That concerns me a heck of a lot more than 2% points on his completion percentage.
     
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  11. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Chalk me up for #1 for sure.

    Someone bump this thread in 2015
     
  12. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If I'm being strict about it I'd go with sample error. But I could easily see there being something to the completion % difference. 500 attempts isn't a ton as far as sample sizes go in general. But in the NFL, I think we can safely assume 62.5% is an accurate assessment of who Tanny is at this point. So the fact that it drops so much and there isn't much variance in those 6 games could suggest there's something different going on. And if there is, I don't think #3 is playing a significant role, at least not yet. It's probably more #2.
     
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  13. Aquafin

    Aquafin New Member

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    well after watching Cam Newton , Gino Smith , and Matt Ryan I am not at all impressed with Tannehill if he keeps throwing interceptions and fumbles in the next three games then it will be time to bench him and add another qb to stiffen up the competition some . by putting more heat on Ryan T. that should give us a better indicator on if he will be a good qb or not.

    many people around these parts don't think Tannehill will be a good qb at all . I am waiting until the end of the season before I will agree or disagree wth them.
     
  14. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    What is with everyone talking about Geno Smith? He's played worse than Tannehill.
     
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  15. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Probably too time consuming, but do we know how the other 17 QB's (I exaggerate.....a little) who have started in the AFCE the last year and a half have fared both in and out of the conference?
     
  16. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Not last year. And the vast majority of these numbers are from last season. The Bills and Pats finished 22 and 25 in total D (yards per game). Jets were 8th.
     
  17. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Young QB playing division games with the likes of Belichik and Ryan on the other side. I do wish he'd have the "f*ck you Jets, Pat, and Bills!" instinct and bring his game to another level. I still have confidence in him.
     
  18. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm neither pro or against Tanny yet. I haven't seen enough, but I DO KNOW.........I can't fault him because of his OLine. Our division might just know to bring extra pressure so the turnstiles will keep turning. I give him some benefit of doubt until his Oline is fixed and he has an honest to goodness chance against them all, in division and out.
     
  19. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    I think it is a little of 1 and 2.
     
  20. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I am more pro than againts. I have seen enough to keep hope. With Henne, I lost hope by 6 games in second season starting.

    Tannehill, I don't feel hopeless if it is 3rd and 9+. There is a chance he can convert that down. He doesn't make too many boneheaded moves. He also has shown a command of the huddle.

    He does have some problems that I hope he fixes.
     
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  21. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    What was their Opponent Passer Rating though? Yards are almost meaningless.
     
  22. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    People comparing highlights or one game to seeing all of Tannehill's full games?
     
  23. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    I think it's a mix of 1 & 2, and I also think #2 is a problem that goes outside our division. If you go back to opening day last year, it's as if the Texans d-linemen had clocks in their head and knew everything was going to be a quick drop back with the ball coming out fast. They got their hands up and deflected several passes. You see a rookie DB last week know our tendencies on the first pass of the game and he makes a big play.
    I think our coaches are asking Tannehill to shoulder a little too much responsibility this early, and we need to rely on the run more, but teams don't seem to even worry about our run game....most likely because they know we'll get away from it.
     
  24. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Inter faeces et urinam nascimur...
     
  25. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    ESPN highlights... That is all that matters in the age of perception over fact.
     
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  26. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    LOL..cant it just be some of all the above? Second year Qb....some fundemental flaws...opponents..I think right now they all have a part of the picture you presented.

    Lets just hope the balance of the season creates another picture to compare to this.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2
     
  27. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    Miami by 10!
     
  28. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I understand. We all WANT a QB that will make a difference for a while. His interceptions are a concern. The slow starts every game have me questioning also. Starting slow might not be his fault at all, but.......... All isn't lost, though. He's still a new QB in relation to other NFL QB's. He has flashes and I do like him more than Henne. Behind Penny, and somewhere around Fiedler........for now.


    THAT oughta get them posting...............lol
     
  29. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    Did anyone see Sterling Sharpe on NFLN yesterday showing tape on Tannehill and how he is not THROWING THE BALL when he has open receivers. Now, mind you, he showed two or three clips from games.. and I'm sure you can probably find two or three clips of every qb this year doing what Tannehill did (or didn't do.... actually)... but still... it was somewhat of an eye opener to actually see him NOT throwing the ball to open receivers. They were plays designed to get quick hitters and he is staring down the receiver who is wide open, but WON"T throw the ball for some strange reason. It was really wacky. Like Sterling says, he knows the offense, he knows what it was designed to do, get the ball out quickly. And Tannehill needs to trust his instincts and rip it loose.
     
  30. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wow, that's discouraging. I wish I knew enough to know if it's a pattern or not. Guys start doubting themselves it can get ugly. I did just read tonight in some original draft notes (don't remember who) that while he threw w/ a ton of confidence to the outside, he tended to stare down and hold the ball on receivers cutting inside. I still have faith in him and think he can be a good QB. Above average although I don't really expect him to be "elite" like Manning, Rodgers, Brees and lipschitz up North who shall remain nameless.
     
  31. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    I'm more concerned about the 2-5 record in division games.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    1-5 when you consider Matt Moore played pretty much 95% of the Jets game we won in 2012.
     
  33. scotty_irnbru

    scotty_irnbru Well-Known Member

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    It's surely all connected though. How much is due to tepid play calling? How much is poor oline play? How much is last years weak receiver group? How much is THill inexperience? As for the 2-5 record, its surely gonna shake out that way. We lost to NE, a superbowl contender, twice. Split the jets and bills. That seems about right. There is an awful lot of parity in this league, far more than is given credit for. Last week's loss sucked though.
     

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