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Targets for 2014 Dolphins Draft

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by Bpk, Sep 24, 2013.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Wow.

    This kid's good. He's running one of the fastest hurry-ups I've ever seen right away against San Diego State, whom they beat in a huge upset. Eastern Illinois the FCS team beats San Diego State. And you know who else they very nearly beat? Northern Illinois, who beat Iowa and is undefeated and went to the Orange Bowl last year. Came within 3 points. Garoppolo threw 6 TDs in that game.

    Getting back to the San Diego State game, I just timed 5 seconds came off the game clock from a 2nd down run which moved the sticks, into the next 1st down run play. Now, they had to pause the clock to move the sticks of course, but that's still fast. Perhaps more impressive is from whistle-to-snap on that 1st down run to a 2nd down deep touchdown pass, only 11 seconds passed on the game clock. There was no moving the sticks or anything so that means literally 11 seconds passed from the time the runner was on the ground and the whistle blew to the time everyone's lined up and snapping the ball. And since everyone has to be set for 1 second before you can snap it, that means it took them 10 seconds.

    That's blinding speed. Can't do that if you've got a dummy at quarterback.

    You've got to see this. Not a great play but an interesting one.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4zrAfoBuiw&feature=player_detailpage#t=1316

    Offense is going with some gimmicky 3-OL look in the middle with one more OL on each wing. Garoppolo wants the little shovel pass against the depleted box but actually decides against it, because he sees a defensive end bearing down on the player ready to pulverize him. Makes a quick decision to pull the ball back in, eludes pressure long enough to avoid the sack and throw the ball away. Pretty keen.
     
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  2. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    but I thought you said you didn't like Hurst?
     
  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Watching Eastern Illinois play football, I can't tell who I'm more interested in...Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo or Head Coach Dino Babers.

    Babers looks like a rock star already. Was the special teams/wide receivers coach at Baylor from 2008 to 2011 where he coached David Gettis, Josh Gordon, Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Tevin Reese and Antwan Goodley.

    He moved on to Eastern Illinois and in 2012 took them from worst to first. They were the last place team in Ohio Valley in 2011, won the conference championship in 2012. Now they've only lost one game by 3 points to Northern Illinois who played Florida State in the Orange Bowl last year.

    Coached as Karl Dorrell's Assistand Head Coach at UCLA for four years 2004 to 2007, where they made a bowl game all four years.

    Coached Az-Zahir Hakim back in 1994 with San Diego State. Took over as OC at Arizona in 1998, immediately went 12-1 coaching guys like Dennis Northcutt and Trung Canidate. Went on to be TAMU's OC from 2001-2002.

    How's this for a quote:

    That's how good Art Briles is. He bumps into the right guy with the right depth of experience (Dino Babers has coached every position on offense) and he just takes over that guy's whole world as far as offensive style and philosophy, and that protege becomes a great coach too.

    Jim Harbaugh did that with Willie Taggart and David Shaw at Stanford as well.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Should we be giving RB Marion Grice of Arizona State a little more love? Some pretty keen highlights.
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Austin Seferian-Jenkins has really good hands and ball skills.

    But overall he's only a marginally better prospect than Dion Sims was. Big, slow plodder without great hips or feet. Physical but not consistent with contact. No RAC skills to speak of.

    He's not nearly in the same class as Troy Niklas, Jace Amaro or Eric Ebron.
     
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  6. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Really? I was watching him in the USC/ Wisconsin games last night trying to figure out if I should chart him or Charles Sims today and came away rather unimpressed. It didn't see like he was particularly quick or powerful. His longest run on the year is 29 yards, although it does seem like he has a knack for getting in the endzone. Maybe the DraftBreakdown cut ups weren't flattering to him, as he only averaged 3.8 YPC against Wisconsin and a decent 5.3 against USC.

    I'll end up charting his carries in the next day or two since my curiosity has been piqued though. Seems he's been getting some hype, so maybe I just missed something.
     
  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    A couple of things. First off, I'm not sure longest run has ever personally been a part of my evaluation repertoire on a guy. It feels way too n=1 for me.

    Second, I don't know of any Draft Breakdown stuff on him for 2013 yet unfortunately. I'd love to see it. I don't think they really make anyone look any certain way. I think they do a good job.

    That said, highlights are important for a back. They always have been, to me. They tell you a lot. Since the highlights will often focus on big runs you get to see what exactly in this guy's skill set fed into those big runs. You get a sense for how much of what he does is earned versus given. You also get a sense for exactly how impressive it REALLY is when he's impressing other people. How good is the good? Goes back to that "wow" factor I talked about before. You need to see it. Players grow in the NFL. If that "wow" factor really is a true "wow" move they're going to display that skill more often in the pros.

    The intriguing thing about Grice is that like Sims he's a big time all-around receiving back and threat too. Oh and he's also 6'0" and 207 lbs? Nice.

    I haven't really dug into the guy. I'm just saying I tend to know some pretty sick flexibility and make-you-miss ability when I see it, and this guy does some pretty sick sh-t on the field at times.

    I'm going to try and give you an example or two...

    Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjwYycQEMY4&feature=player_detailpage#t=43

    If it takes you to an advertisement and then doesn't take you directly to 43 seconds into the video, just fast forward to that point.

    I mean that series of moves was just pretty ****ing sick right there.

    As for the stats...I don't see anything to raise a red flag. He's averaging 5 yards a carry. He has 18 touchdowns in only 7 games!

    Averages 5.4 yards per carry between the 40's, averages 10.1 yards per carry om the opponent's 40 to 20 area, and even 5.5 yards per carry in the opponent 20 to 10 area. And that trend was virtually identical in 2012 as well, 7.3 yards per carry between the 40's, 9.8 yards per carry 40 to 20, 5.9 yards per carry 20 to 10.
     
  8. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not entirely sure why I threw longest run in there. It was one of those things where I felt like my post was too short and I needed to add extra detail, so I picked something. An unfortunate extension of my need to ramble in real life.

    Here's the DB videos:
    USC (2013): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Pn5vRoTqIk
    Wisconsin (2013): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeDwxcKtvOA

    I wasn't suggesting that their videos are biased or cut in a way to make a prospect look good or bad. Rather that the games they have chosen to cut-up and put on the site thus far haven't been representative of his full set of skills. His touchdowns are impressive, as are his receiving stats. I hadn't seen that he had almost 300 yards receiving until now, that's good stuff.

    Now I'm curious about him so I'll chart/watch Grice today to get a better feel for him.
     
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  9. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Thanks!

    It's like Christmas!
     
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  11. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Also I don't know how many people are familiar with this site, but noonkick.com has a huge repository of full length games stored on Youtube and other video hosting sites. It's a pretty good aggregator of full length games over the web and is where I get a decent percentage of the games I chart from.

    For example here's a link to the Arizona State games: http://noonkick.com/?s=arizona+state

    They have ASU games against Washington, Notre Dame, Stanford, Wisconsin, and Sacramento State. Not as easy to watch as cut-ups, but when you're jonesing for some football it's nice.
     
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  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Sweet christ he had 19 touchdowns last year on only 144 touches. He's got 18 more touchdowns this year on another 144 touches. That's incredible.
     
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  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You're my favorite
     
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  14. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I used noonkick's channel to rewatch the Senior Bowl last year. I don't know how he gets away with posting full NCAA games, but I'm not complaining.
     
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  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Todd I'm hearing Vic Beasley got handled by Cam Erving this weekend. Any truth to this?
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Timmy Jernigan is a player I've loved for a long time but I'm going to end up having to drop him down because of size. I can maintain Aaron Donald despite significant size concerns because he's just that athletic and special but Jernigan isn't quite there. I don't think Jernigan is 6'2". But I do think he could be 292 lbs.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    As for Vic Beasley against Cam Erving, I have some observations from the 1st half of the game:

    1. Clemson rotates actively, so Beasley wasn't on the field about a third of the time
    2. Florida State ran the ball a lot
    3. The score board dictated FSU were able to utilize quick passing & other plays that take pass rushers out of the picture
    4. In the 1st half, consistently when FSU did need to sit in the pocket on a play, they ran RBs and TEs to help Erving on Beasley
    5. Beasley also ran a fair amount of action designed to spring others open for pressure, which it did
    6. On the other hand Erving did a good job on Beasley and I've only seen Beasley get the better of him once or twice in the 1st half
    7. Beasley made a nice pair of plays against the running game
    8. I have a 1st half QB Hit for Beasley on 2nd & 29 just before the half

    2nd half observations:

    Essentially the same observations from the 1st half. most times the play called for a pocket to be formed and maintained long enough for Jameis Winston to get the ball down the field, Beasley was doubled. Either by RBs, TEs or at times by Josue Matias (which is just unfair).

    That said there were a number of quicker passes where Beasley tried out some pass rush moves on Erving in one on one, and Erving just had him. Even if those were longer passes, Beasley was controlled.

    I have a QB Hurry for Beasley on 1st & 20 with a little over 10 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, Beasley unblocked though. Like I said there's the 2nd & 29 hit on Jameis Winston where Beasley made an inside move and split right through the double of Erving and Matias.

    Bottom line, if I'm Cameron Erving and my goal is to cut up the entire game to get as many clips as I can of myself going man to man with Vic Beasley in pass protection and winning, I only walk out of the film room with half a dozen plays probably. And there would be a couple of plays I specifically make sure I didn't include. Nice battle, good for both sides, the circumstances of the game ensured Beasley was not going to get much of a chance.

    I've got some work to do on DT Grady Jarrett, who was very impressive during the game.
     
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  18. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Yeah Erving did a good job against Vic, got some help at times but also held up well on his own.
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Really going to have to get hold of the Stanford-Oregon State game because I'd love to break down Scott Crichton versus Cameron Fleming. Two very good prospects right there. I'm inclined to bump Crichton into the elite group.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Updated Troy Niklas based on his targets in the Air Force game.
     
  21. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Aaaannnddd I'll be spending another week in the draft threads rather than the main board.
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I hear ya. But I can't say it wasn't predictable.
     
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  23. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    If Ireland is there at the end of this year and the McKinnie experiment continues to work you have to think they'll look at Seantrel Henderson. The similarities are certainly there.
     
  24. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Plus he has the versatility to effectively come off both edges.
     
  25. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Alright, I'm through with Marion Grice. I've watched and charted every game/ run snap except Sacramento State. I'm going to start off by being a little unfair, so pretend it's me doing my best bitcħy, anonymous scout impersonation.

    From what I see on tape and in the stats, Grice just isn't an impressive physical runner. Out of the 6 backs I've looked at, he comes out the worst at the extra yardage statistic. His yards after contact is 2.2 (lower than Sankey's 2.48) and I only have 5 broken tackles in 93 carries. There of course isn't a known correlation between those numbers and success (Doug Martin's numbers were poor as a prospect), but it still might concern me.

    His strength is clearly getting out in space, not inside running. He only averages 3.74 yards when running inside the tackles, compared to 6.37 yards when running outside. On third and short (<5 yards) he averages 3.4 yards, which isn't bad, but it isn't great either. On 7 attempts against 8 in the box (IE goal line attempts, short yardage plays), he averaged 1.14 yards. In all his attempts against 8 in the box, he didn't reach the endzone or first down marker once. Against 5 man fronts he strangely averaged less than when he faced more men in the box, only gaining 4.42 yards on average against 5 man fronts.

    On runs when he didn't follow his TE he averaged an...average 4.5 yards per carry. On 13 carries when he faced 2+ defenders to blockers, he averaged only .54 yards per carry. In short, he's not a physical, every-down back that you might be looking for. If you were to simply compare these metrics to the others I've charted so far, you'd definitively put everyone (Seastrunk, Gordon, Andrews, Carey) except Sankey in front of him as a prospect.

    Of course, all of that is unfair to his receiving skills and his overall ability to play in space. I don't think Grice is an every down back, and for that he's probably not in my top-tier of guys I'm interested in. However, I wouldn't fault anyone who does. I mean he has 302 receiving yards with an average of 9.2 yards per reception, which is great. The trend towards players that can do it all is so prevalent in the NFL that I think Grice would make an excellent 3rd down back/ change of pace guy. A player you could get into space on sweeps, screens, outside runs, and downfield passing - that's where his value is to me. From the work I've done so far, I'd take him over Sankey for sure. I think there's value there, especially to the right situation/team with a plan to use him.

    Despite all that complaining about his lack of physicality and inside running, you have to check out this clip: http://youtu.be/gr3q72FM6H0
     
  26. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Miami needs a big punishing running back and maybe I'm bias on this front but Carlos Hyde fits that bill. Downhill runner, doesn't dance, great balance. He is on a tear, over the last 3 games he has a combined total 66 carries, 464 yards, 7 touchdowns. Certainly not a day 1 prospect but he fits what Miami needs. At least we can end the Daniel Thomas experiment.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    What really intrigues me about Marion Grice are the touchdowns.

    I think that's when you can really cut through the statistics and the different circumstances that can play into them, and get at the heart of what he's able to do on the football field.

    It's difficult to tell me, for example, that the guy doesn't have after-contact ability when I watch clips like the one you posted.

    Or this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=UjwYycQEMY4#t=44
    Or this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjwYycQEMY4&feature=player_detailpage#t=91
    Or this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjwYycQEMY4&feature=player_detailpage#t=336
    Or this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqdkbRBdm2M&feature=player_detailpage#t=2281
    Or this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqdkbRBdm2M&feature=player_detailpage#t=2961
    Or this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqdkbRBdm2M&feature=player_detailpage#t=4162
    Or this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=74o3xAmRX34#t=2124

    And here's the same one you video'd: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=74o3xAmRX34#t=3505

    Here is some nice catch work as a bonus:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqdkbRBdm2M&feature=player_detailpage#t=2408
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqdkbRBdm2M&feature=player_detailpage#t=2961
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Getting more and more intrigued by WR Devin Street of Pittsburgh. He reminds me a little bit (in the good ways) of Justin Hunter from Tennessee. He can run routes and create separation, and for that lanky frame he can run a little bit after the catch.

    Unlike Hunter though, Street has a lot of experience from the slot and I think he's a more savvy route runner. Then again, when you boil it down Hunter may be a more gifted pure athlete.

    Street seems almost cut for the Miami offense. He's a version of Brian Hartline that has experience playing from the slot. His size makes him a threat in the seam as well as vertically running from inside to outside. In the clips below you'll see some pretty savvy route running and separation created against really good corners.

    2013 Devin Street vs. Virginia
    CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XrNktevFYP4#t=1411
    TOUCHDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XrNktevFYP4#t=1971
    REPLAY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XrNktevFYP4#t=1998
    CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XrNktevFYP4#t=6169
    CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XrNktevFYP4#t=6918
    REPLAY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XrNktevFYP4#t=6947

    2013 Devin Street vs. Virginia Tech
    ROUTE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA0b3gmamBE&feature=player_detailpage#t=476
    CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA0b3gmamBE&feature=player_detailpage#t=1001
    CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA0b3gmamBE&feature=player_detailpage#t=1031
    ROUTE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA0b3gmamBE&feature=player_detailpage#t=3492
    CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA0b3gmamBE&feature=player_detailpage#t=3949
    ROUTE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA0b3gmamBE&feature=player_detailpage#t=5713
    REPLAY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA0b3gmamBE&feature=player_detailpage#t=5775
    ROUTE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=OA0b3gmamBE#t=6474
    CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=OA0b3gmamBE#t=6961
    REPLAY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=OA0b3gmamBE#t=6982
    ROUTE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=OA0b3gmamBE#t=7785
    CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=OA0b3gmamBE#t=8356
    REPLAY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=OA0b3gmamBE#t=8399

    2013 Devin Street vs. Florida State
    COMPILATION: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4q0eE7M858

    TOTAL THREE GAMES
    25 TARGET, 15 CATCH, 303 YARDS, 1 TD

    BONUS FOOTAGE
    DUKE ROUTE&BLOCK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RicqH-Doz0&feature=player_detailpage#t=70
    DUKE TOUCHDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RicqH-Doz0&feature=player_detailpage#t=138
    DUKE TOUCHDOWN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RicqH-Doz0&feature=player_detailpage#t=244

    More Notes: There are virtually two touchdowns against Navy that are both worth capping. One is a real touchdown, another is a 2-point conversion. One was a really nice, quick route creating separation from 12 yards out. The other was a fade pass where he showed his height advantage, though the ball could've been thrown higher.
     
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  29. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Your dedication to time-stamping and linking videos is unparalleled.
     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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  31. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It's for future reference so that I can draft some compilations of my own.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Some Scott Crichton bookmarks for future use.

    2013 DE Scott Crichton vs. Stanford
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=323
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=691
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=767
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=899
    FUMBLE-PLUS-RECOVERY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=944
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING SACK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=1374
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=1457
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=2084
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=2691
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=2847
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=2898
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=3509
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=3534
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=3597
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=3649
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=4131
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=4871
    DEFENSIVE TACKLE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=4949
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=5883
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=5975
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=6018
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=6059
    CRICHTON-vs-FLEMING: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=6102
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=6141
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=6625
    DEFENSIVE TACKLE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=6748
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=7415
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=7484
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a2FKmyriky4#t=7549
     
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  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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  34. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Call me nuts but I'm close to saying I'd do what Washington did with RG3 and draft Manziel plus another QB in the 3rd. Then scheme it up so you're using all of Manziel's ability rather than operating out of fear of getting him hurt. Just let him go out and do his thing. I think if he went to teams like St Louis, Zona, or Cleveland with a strong defense at his back and some playmakers on offense to work with he could make them relevant next year.
     
  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Manziel?

    Yeah, that's pretty nuts. :)

    Bridgewater? Yes. Manziel? No.
     
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  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The success of Russell Wilson is going to help Johnny Manziel's draft stock quite a bit, I think.

    But that's not a good thing, for the team that ultimately gets him.

    They're both EXCELLENT scramblers with a really great sphere of awareness around them. They're athletes. Well-coordinated, aware athletes. They have great lizard brains.

    However, Wilson's downfield vision is and has always been extraordinary for his height. Johnny Manziel's is not. Nor is his understanding of offense. Manziel anticipates practically on an FCS level. Everything for him is about holding the football as long as possible and waiting for windows to get WIDE open, and in the meanwhile scrambling until he can clear up his vision enough to see it. Russell Wilson is not that kind of player. He has good downfield vision and an excellent understanding of offensive and defensive philosophies. He anticipates what will come open.

    Add to that Russell Wilson having a far better arm that can get the football to any section of the field, and the polar opposite personalities the two have (which is part and parcel to the awareness, anticipation and understanding of philosophical football), and these guys just don't really compare. They're only alike in a few very specific ways, and then they're at polar opposite ends of the spectrum in some other important ways. It's not just one guy being a 10 in this and the other more like a 7 or 8. We're talking opposite ends of the spectrum.
     
  37. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    that's why I compared it to Washington & RG3 and mentioned just turning Manziel loose and letting him do his thing, b/c I don't see him currently displaying the type of NFL caliber anticipation that Wilson has. However let's not forget Manziel is still just 2.5 years into the college game where as Wilson had twice that much time under his belt before landing in Seattle, so Manziel obviously has some learning to do. Where Manziel is at now reminds me of a young Wilson back in his NC St days, as Wilson's success at one time relied heavily on tons of scrambling and throwing to the open man.
     
  38. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    well, only 1 team will have an opportunity to draft Bridgewater so I wasn't even thinking about him for a QB-needy team drafting in the teens or 20's.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    First off I tend to dislike the whole timeline-matching thing. There's an underlying assumption that a guy WILL get to a certain point, and that's a bad assumption. If I say that so-and-so is now where Tom Brady was at the same point in his career, that basically implies that so-and-so is going to keep improving like Brady did...and it's just a bad assumption to make.

    Some things you expect to get better. The things that make special players so special, you don't assume anything.

    Second, I think Simon (who did an extensive bit of work on Wilson back when he was at NC State) would strongly beg to differ with your characterization of Wilson's field reading ability and understanding of offense at that point in time.

    I'm just saying you can leave me off the mailing list for this campaign. No way.
     
  40. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Boomer did extensive work during Wilson's freshman & sophomore days? I lived 20 minutes from NC State at the time so I watched a few games and had somewhat of a pulse on things, and maybe my recollection is off, but I don't recall Wilson being the same polished player as a fresh/soph at NC St as he is now or was at Wisconsin. If that were the case I don't think Tom O'Brien would've ditched Wilson for Mike Glennon, and I think we would've seen the already-graduated Wilson declare for the NFL. His completion % at NC St was 57.8 and never broke 60.0; then it skyrocketed to 72.8 his 5th year. His yards per attempt his first 3 years was 7.2. That skyrocketed to 10.3 his 5th year. His soph/junior seasons saw a TD-INT ratio of 3.9:1. That jumped to 8.3:1 his 5th year. His freshman year saw nothing but simple reads, lots of scrambling, and throwing to the open man, which is why he only had 1 INT in 275 attempts.

    I'm by no means suggesting it's a given that Manziel will develop the traits the more experienced Wilson currently has, and it's not a "timeline thing". It's a context thing. All I did was remind you how young he is, how it's a little unfair to expect him to be a polished product at this stage, and how context needs to be involved when comparing a sophomore Manziel to a junior/senior/NFL Russell Wilson. I also feel it's somewhat straw and hypocritical of you to push the argument you're currently making b/c I don't think it's fair to, in one breath, criticize a young sophomore Manziel's lack of great anticipation and then in another breath tell me I'm assuming Manziel will develop those abilities. Firstly, I never "assumed" he would develop those abilities; I merely noted the context involved. Secondly, if you're suggesting we can't "assume" he'll develop these abilities, then you also can't "assume" that he won't, considering he's just a sophomore.

    BTW, how is this different than your feelings about Cordarrelle Patterson last year whom you would've used a 1st rounder on despite not yet displaying the requisite nuances of the WR position? Did you "assume" that Patterson would develop that aspect of his game, or were you drafting him on ability and hoping he'd develop the rest?
     

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