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Does Tannehill get enough Credit?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dolfan40, Dec 4, 2013.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm not omitting anything and I didn't even start listing the bad...I referenced our two TD plays from last week. If I wanted to list more bad there was plenty to choose from though. I could have mentioned under-throwing a wide open Hartline for an easy TD or overthrowing Clay on 4th and goal...do you really want to go play by play and rate each of his tosses last week? Let's look at the week before that; three deep passes to Wallace, three misses. The week before that? Two deep passes to Wallace, two misses. Sure, he caught several of those passes but they were poorly thrown and Wallace bailed him out.

    The thing that few of you of you here understand is that raw statistics mean nothing if a QB is not putting his team in a position to win the ballgame. We're running a WC type of offense where precision passing is critical, yet how many passes has Tannehill hit his primary receiver IN STRIDE this year? You can count the throws on both hands, yet we're talking about hundreds of attempts. On the out routes where Ryan knows exactly where the receiver will be, he fires near-perfect cannons to the sideline all day long. The problem is, defenses will give us that all day long because it makes Wallace a non-factor and it frees up the safeties to camp in our backfield. For those of you who say Tannehill throws often over the middle, you're not watching your game tapes at all. In fact, the only primary throws he makes over the middle are to Clay; otherwise it's all semi-safe throws outside the hash-marks because that's all he has right now. Again, our opponents know this and it makes it a lot easier to come with pressure while minimizing exposure.

    For the record, I'm a lifelong Fin fan and I desperately want to see Tannehill succeed. If he fails, then in my opinion we're back on the market for a new HC, a new OC, and we're back in the draft for a 1st round QB in 2015. Id love for Tannehill to be the guy, but making up reasons to say that he's a great QB are just silly. He does a lot of things well, but he also has some major flaws that are impossible to ignore. In the average game this year, he's left 14-21 points on the field with poor throws, slow releases and bad reads. That's not a franchise QB...no matter how many yards he throws for.
     
  2. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    Only time will tell because the coaches are not just going to come out and outline their development plan for the fanbase.

    Having said this, the ultimate plan is to develop a QB that can play for 10-15 years. To last that long, at some point in time he'll have to rely far more on his cognitive skills than his pure athletic ability.

    I just don't think there's a template for 10-15 year success for a "one read and run" QB. We've already seen RG3 blow out a knee. Wilson this year has thrown 146 fewer passes than Tannehill. C-Kap, for safety reasons, has had his read option plays limited but this has resulted in an almost exclusive one read QB.

    At some point in time, these QBs will have to develop their pocket and progression skills or risk that the league will catch up to their tendencies.
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's a bit frustrating because I hear Philbin all the time admire the trait im criticizing Ryan about.
     
  4. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    The fanbase is impatient as any right now but here's the way I see it. As long as Manning is in Denver and Brady is in our division, we're going to struggle to get out of the conference.

    What we need to know is if our QB and team will be ascending as these players are retiring. This is what I will say about Tannehill. He's being asked to do the things that top-tier QBs are being asked to do. He's not performing at their level but he's showing that the demands are not overwhelming.

    What happens when these other QBs are signed to big contracts (and by extension lowering their team's talent level) and their teams now demand that they command the game from the pocket and pass 40+ times per game? What happens if their teams find out that they could only ever handle the demands that were placed on them during their first few years?
     
  5. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    The other QBs in Tannehill's class have taken their teams to the playoffs. It's that simple, really. Mike Glennon--who started this year as a backup--has very Tannehill-like numbers (actually better than Tannehill's rookie year), but no one talks about him either because their team isn't a contender.

    Tannehill hasn't exactly lit it up in primetime either, like Russell Wilson did this week, for instance.
    - MNF @ New Orleans: we get blown out as he throws 3 picks
    - TNF vs. Cincy: unspectacular game-manager performance - high comp% on conservative throws, no TDs - and the game was really handed to us by Dalton and won by Wake
    - MNF @ Tampa: uh...yea...
     
  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I believe the skillsets of Wilson , luck, Kaepernick can win a championship Rtl..
     
  7. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

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    I look at the list and the "the other's took their teams to the playoffs" argument and I say this: Luck is the only one of those who carried a team and made them better. Wilson? Great running game and a sick defense. Kap? Um, great line, great running game, great TE, great defense. Let's not forget, SF was a playoff team before him so let's settle down. Look, I don't like making excuses for people, but if you look at the other guys and what they have/had to work with compared to Tannehill, I think he's fine where he is. I'm sure if you dropped Tannehill into Seattle or SF he'd look great too. Easy when you have the horses to work with. I'm fine with him. I'm happy with his development. And eff Cowher. Like someone mentioned above, like he's some QB guru. How long did it take him to win a SB? Screw him.
     
  8. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    Oh I have no doubt that you can win a SB with the way they play. Even last year C-Kap was one play away from being a SB Champ. What I'm not convinced of is if this style of play can be sustained for 10-15 years.

    For example, eventually when teams no longer have to worry about "beast mode" they'll take away Wilson's rollout to the right. Once this happens, he'll have to adapt. One day we'll see if he can.
     
  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Oh I see what your saying..hmmm, did I hear correctly that Tannehill said he wants to play til he's forty?
     
  10. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    People love when things are simplified and they can rationalize complex issues with..."It's that simple, really." It is never that simple.

    Each young QB is being asked to do different things, in different offenses and with different circumstances. Some are doing better than others. For example, Wilson is being asked to pass 25 times per game with many coming on play-action rollouts. Add to this the beast they have in the backfield, the top or near top defense and a ridiculous home field advantage. So no it's not that simple, really.

    You quoted three games by Tannehill and targeted Primetime games for some reason. The NO game was a mismatch in the Superdome. This was a bad game for Tannehill (and many others) due to the two first half turnovers. Had he not fumbled, we could have sustained a degree of competitiveness in that game. The Cincy game, did he not lead the drive to get us into overtime? People ask for "signs" that he's "the guy." This was a sign. In Tampa, he was our best offensive player. We had zero running game and CK has proven that the one miss to Wallace should have been caught. The game was lost when our defense allowed a long TD drive where only one pass was thrown.

    I could get into a discussion of the differences between process vs results or performance vs production...but what's the point. People see what they want to see...and sometimes they want it to be "simple."
     
  11. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    I think he's been quoted as saying he wants to play 15 years. Brady is quoted as say he wants to play till he's 40. Great for the sport but not for us.
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    lol..bastard...

    Defense brother..come to the other side..
     
  13. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    What gives me hope was that 2004 MNF game against the Patriots. Our pass rush destroyed Brady in that game - at a time when they were at their Championship peak. Fast forward a decade. If we're finally going to extinguish the Patriots, it'll be Wake, Vernon and Jordan that do it.
     
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  14. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Because they're the games everyone sees nationally and we're talking about national respect and credit...? :no:

    I get that Russell Wilson has a nice run game, but fact is he's 11-1 in a QB-driven League while throwing to 2s and 3s in Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and Zach Miller. Oh and he torched the NFC's #1 seed on the road in the playoffs last season.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    HE did not do it. It's a TEAM. People point out that Wilson has a sick run game and awesome defense to help him. It's not as a simple as Wilson doing it all. Wilson has played well, but he has significant help.
     
  16. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    Quite frankly, I don't give a rat's a** about national respect. The respect from the adoring media and fandom can be fleeting. Just ask RG3.

    You're right. He is passing to a lot of 2s and 3s which maybe speaks to the overall value of the position. Having said this, have you seen how ridiculously wide open these 2s, 3s and TEs are on a consistent basis? Wilson is next to never throwing into tight windows into the teeth of the defense.

    I'm on record as saying that I think Wilson will always be an above average QB. But at 25 attempts per game, with many coming off of play action rollouts, with "beast mode" in the backfield, favourable circumstances created by their defense and the obnoxious 12th man...I'm just not drinking the Russell Wilson kool-aid just yet.
     
  17. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Solid post. Where did you get the stat about Yards lost from drops?

    Ryan Tannehill doesnt just use the middle of the field to Charles Clay. He actually dominates the middle of the field for the most part. His passer ratings over the middle of the field compared to outside the hashmarks arent even close.

    On plays of negative yardage (meaning screens or anything else behind the LOS but within the hashmarks) hes 24/24/189 yards/113 rating/1 TD/0 INT
    On passes 0-9 yards over the middle hes 84/115/692/92.4rating/4TD/2INT
    On passes 10-19 yards over the middle hes 31/50/601/85.5/1TD/3INT - You would like less INTS as always but the completion percentage and passer rating in that area of the field is above average.
    On 20+ over the middle is his only struggle in that area of the field...2/9/75 yards/22.2 rating/0TD/2INT

    If this were a baseball player and we're identifying Ryan's struggles its:
    Left hash 0-9 yards (low yardage totals drag the rating down more then completion % or int)
    Deep middle
    Deep right

    Those are his only Qb ratings that signify significant struggles. Everything else is above or around the league average according to Pro Football Focus.
     
  18. Canad-phin

    Canad-phin Active Member

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    So like almost all the passes Brady makes in a game. they throw more short passes then anyone. That the right read, the difference is Tannehill hasn't had the benefit of guys breaking tackles for him all year.
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's wicked misleading though for two obvious reasons. For your statistics in the 0-9 yard category, that's counting every time Tannehill has to check down and he has to throw a little nothing pass to Miller. That's a completion, sure, but that barely qualifies as, "Tannehill passes great over the middle."

    The second reason why it's so incredibly misleading is that you're ignoring the larger picture here; there are quality levels to completions that stats can't show. How many of those mid-range passes were behind the receiver or overthrown? Getting back to my last post, you can count the times Tannehill has hit his receiver IN STRIDE over the middle on two hands...but our entire offense is based on precision passing and crisp routes. Completing the pass is not enough if you never, ever give your receivers a chance to make a play. Over the middle, Tannehill ALMOST NEVER gives them that chance....we're talking like 1 out of 100 throws this season.

    Your third stat, the deep category, also tells more than just numbers. First off, both of those picks were 4th quarter desperation heaves so ignore them, because it doesn't define what type of passer he is. He is 2 for 7 FOR THE SEASON on throws over 20 yards inside the hash marks, and both of those passes were caught by Clay on a secondary route after the play broke down. Here's the kicker though, on both of those catches, Clay was running North and South, meaning that your typical "over the middle" timing didn't come into play.

    So to summarize your argument, Tannehill is great on checkdown dump passes. He manages to get 4 "completions" per game 10-19 yards over the middle, and it doesn't matter if he's never hit a single one of those passes to where his receiver can make a play. When it comes to 20+ yard passes over the middle, we don't even try to throw there so its a dead stat.

    I'm sorry, but there's absolutely nothing impressive about that....especially since we have one of the fastest WR's in the league and he's the most lethal over the middle.
     
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  20. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I'm not sure I'd put much stock into 'middle of the field' metrics. Alen discussed this previously, but IIRC they're counting things like a square in as middle of the field. I think the 10-19 yd metrics would be more indicative, and it seems like he's about average there.
     
  21. Canad-phin

    Canad-phin Active Member

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    Please watch Brady and Manning this week, pvr and watch how many times they check down or take what the defense is giving them. The great ones do that all the time. Brees does it tons as well. The difference is how many times guys break tackles for Brady, Brees and Manning and how little our guys do it. Also how many times has Tannehill hit nartline perfectly in the hands, on a comeback or out? Tons but these plays are harder to break into long plays. Our offense misses alot of thing like slants, this weekend was the first time I feel Wallace has runa slant all year and he got 12-15 yards on that play because he was hit in stride. Routes also dictate being hit in stride. We run alot of routes that are almost designed to break a tackle from a prone position. I hope we run more slants this week. Both turned out great last week.
     
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  22. bran

    bran Senior Member

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    exactly. brady gets a lot of yards off wide receiver screens. how many times have you seen a new england game where brady just throws some screen pass and the receiver or running backs breaks off 30 yards or more? the dolphins run the same kind of screens from time to time but suck at doing them. i agree wallace needs to be doing more slants get him some space to run.

    as for tannehill, no he does not get enough credit. tannehill has been the qb that taken the most on his shoulders. tannehill has dealt with a **** oline (which has been improved since martin/incognito have been gone) and 0 running game.

    the other qbs like wilson and kapernick have had running games to take the burden off of them. wilson has attempted 305 passes this season to tannehills 451. i really like wilson but not a lot is put on his shoulders. wilson has 10 games where he attempted 30 passes or less(including 3 games where he attempted less than 20, and some around 21 or 23 attempts) tannehill has 1 game where he attempted less than 30 passes.
     
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  23. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So basically you want to pick and choose which passes count and which ones dont. That's what I'm getting out of this post. Every qb has some passes behind the receiver and that he has to check down on. It's a strawman argument with selective plays being included. Also, wallaces speed is difficult to work with on timing routes. Your qb is used to a specific count in his head and then the receiver should be at a certain window in the defense. Wallace is always going to be ahead of the typical wr
     
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  24. Griese's Glasses

    Griese's Glasses Well-Known Member

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    I think he is the most underrated QB in the league right now. Call me a fluff.
     
  25. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    fluff
     
  26. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    So Tannehill likes Tannehill. Shocker. :wink2:
     
  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm not doing that at all...you're the one saying, "Because Tannehill can throw a 2 yard check down pass to a running back, he's great hitting 15 yard slant patterns or 50 yard bombs." One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other, so you can't lump them all into one statistic to prove a point. The same goes for blaming Wallace for being too fast to throw a slant pass to...are you serious??? Rothlesberger did it hundreds of times for dozens of TD's, yet Tannehill has completed that pass accurately once over 12 games.

    Let's take Wallace out of the equation though...how many ACCURATE slant passes has Tannehill thrown this season? If you want to complain about players not making something happen after the ball is thrown, then you have to look for a pass that hits them in stride and doesn't break their momentum. In 12 games, Tannehill has done this 3 times? Maybe 4? Since he's thrown the ball almost 500 times this season, that's a huge problem.

    If you look at Hartline's TD catch last week, that may have been the first pass to him ALL SEASON where he was put into a position by his QB to make a play after the catch. He's caught 62 for 3 TD's and people here are saying what an awesome season he's having, yet we look at someone like Welker who has just six more catches on the season, yet he has triple the amount of TD's because his QB creates opportunities. It's not that these guys on other teams are breaking tackles and fighting for their QB...it's that their QB is creating opportunities for the receivers. That's a massive difference.
     
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  28. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    LOL!! It amazes me that some people can say with a straight face that stats are misleading and can be spun to fit a view when they are the ones spinning the stats. I also get cracked up when people say trust your eyes more than the stats.
     
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  29. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    And the stats indicate what? That Tannehill is the 26th ranked QB in the league?

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

    If his throws were more accurate, if he was better at timing and anticipation, if he didn't consistently underthrow deep balls, his QBR would certainly be higher. Not all completions, or incompletions, are created equal. Blind devotion to stats isn't enough- actually watching the passes shows not only the end result, but the QUALITY of the throws. If Tannehill was spot on with his deep passes and the WRs were blatantly dropping them, what is your response to that? That it was an incompletion, bottom line, and therefore a bad pass? What if a 30 yard completion should have been an easy TD but the pass was underthrown and the drive resulted in a FG instead of a TD, 4 point differential? Like against Carolina? And we lost by what, 4 points?

    Stats are fine, but if you take it too far you end up being just another shouright with hollow arguments. Judgement, and eyeballs, certainly count for a lot.
     
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  30. 407PhinFan

    407PhinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    PFF: Reaction blog Week 13. - Ryan Tannehill has already lost an NFL third worst 352 yards on his 28 dropped passes but at least the situation didn’t get any worse here. For only the second time this year Dolphins receivers didn’t spill a single ball (the last was against Cincinnati in week nine).
     
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that we can all agree that both Ryan and the recievers can do better, but I also feel strongly that they all have the potential to do so. The passing game has gotten better as the season has gone on. And the OL, almost literally, has to be better next season. It can't be worse. I'm more than willing to watch them improve and give them time.

    A lot of you guys are so knee jerk and want to throw Ryan out with the trash because he isn't as good as Rodgers or Brees. I just shake my head.
     
  32. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Obviously it is well-known that QBs get too much credit and too much blame, but that is the standard. And going by the established standard I would say it's clear that RT doesn't get enough credit. Fans and the media are simple. They tend to focus on wins and not much else. That works for a team, but not a single position. To evaluate a position you have to look at that player's skills and attributes. I agree with Philbin that three main attributes a QB needs is decision-making, accuracy and play-making at critical times. Fans look at a guy like Foles and think he's great b/c he's putting up numbers and the team is winning. But I see a QB who rarely puts the ball in tight windows. He's a good QB, but he's also a product of great play design (that may be Kelly's best attribute as a coach). That speaks well of Foles' decision-making, but he's not near as accurate as RT. You put him in Miami's system and we'd be shopping for a starting QB. Wilson is one of my favorite QBs. His play-making and decision-making outside the pocket are incredible. But he's not as good as RT inside the pocket. His decision-making and accuracy are decent there, but easily below RT's. People think he's "done it" b/c his team wins, but they miss how much easier he has it. They forget about his misses from inside the pocket b/c the next play they get a decent run to negate the error. You give him less run support and make him beat teams from inside the pocket and he'd struggle. If he were in Miami I wouldn't say we'd still be shopping for a starter, but I do believe his results would be similar to what RT has done.
     
  33. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I didn't say any such thing. I simply corrected your blanket statement that said:

    You're wrong on every single account. He uses the middle of the field more then any other part of the field and he does so more accurately then the average passer throughout the league. You may watch every game but its apparent but statements like that, that you aren't comprehending what you are watching.

    You reference that Roethlisberger threw slants to Wallace but he really didn't. Slants were, believe it or not, not really a part of Bruce Arians playbook. Further if you believe that being too fast or too slow cant throw off a QB's timing then you really haven't played football or even video games. It absolutely, unequivocally can throw off timing. Its not even a conversation.

    You're comparing Peyton Manning/Wes Welker to Ryan Tannehill/Brian Hartline. I mean, that is how far you have to reach to find a QB of Tannehills caliber? Look, no one here is saying Ryan Tannehill if the second coming of Aaron Rodgers but he is a viable NFL QB and hes done more in his first 2 years then Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and some other really good QB's. Tannehills ball placement could be better...unless you are Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers, it can always be better. But these guys create NOTHING after the catch. Wes Welker has highlight reels of him juking defenders and breaking ankles. Brian Hartline loses his shoe when he tries stuff like that. Wes Welker is probably a HOFER in his own right at this point after the run hes been on and might be the best slot receiver ever so to compare Wallace or Hartline to him isn't a viable or fair comparison. That is more a criticism of Mike Sherman then Ryan Tannehill in my opinion. You are basically criticizing Hartline for having 3 scores at 6M a year when Welker has 9 at 5M a year. Tannehill did not create an opportunity at the end of the game vs Tampa? Or vs Carolina? Tannehill absolutely creates opportunities. Like I said, you are just being selective about which opportunities you recognize.

    Thanks, I missed that one. :up:
     
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  34. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    You see the beauty of the ESPN QBR is that it allows people to pick and choose which stats are meaningful and which ones are not.

    You quote that Tannehill is the 26th rated passer in the league and then proceed to rationalize that if his passing performance was better, he'd be a higher rated QB. The fact is, when it comes to pure passing, he's the 9th ranked QB in the league. What drops him to 26th is the fact that he has by far the worst sack EPA in the entire league.
     

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