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I've wondered all year why Football Outsiders has the Fins rated so low....

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Unlucky 13, Dec 16, 2013.

  1. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    And well, I guess this explains a lot. An excerpt from their game breakdown from yesterday.

    The AFC is a terrible conference historically, eh? So of the....two....it sucks? Fins roster filled with average players? The guy was just destroying Tannehill in an earlier excerpt too. Absolutely no respect. At least they admit their bias, but it will be difficult for me to take them seriously. The Fins beat New England in a huge game and actually dropped in their system. I've given up on understanding it.
     
  2. BayAreaFinFan

    BayAreaFinFan D'oh Club Member

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    Honestly my reaction to the media, especially after this year has been, meh. It just makes winning that much more sweet. I hope they keep undervaluing and telling these guys that they can't win.
     
  3. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    They are right, we are very consistent in being slightly above average. That is a good thing and a bad thing. The record and scoring support that. That's the truth.
     
  4. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's funny, I've got the same lukewarm reaction to Football Outsiders as they do to the Dolphins. They're good for a couple stats you can't find elsewhere, but I'd rather pay PFF than get what FO offers for free to be honest.
     
    Larryfinfan likes this.
  5. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    They are 100% correct though.

    This team is full of average to slightly above average players with very little difference makers. This is why I say that this team has 7 win talent.
     
    Aquafin likes this.
  6. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    I've got no problem with their comment. I'm a big Tannehill fan, and I think he has upper echelon upside, but we are kidding ourselves if we think that he's been better than average to this point in total. I think over his past 3 games, he's showing signs of what he is capable of. Even with those signs, he still has the typical inconsistencies a young quarterback who has the team on his shoulders produces.

    Where are they wrong with this comment?
     
    ABrownLamp likes this.
  7. PhinsFan93

    PhinsFan93 New Member

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    Talented team for sure but depth and player development is a question mark imo

    Elite: Wake, Pouncey, Grimes, Fields
    Good: Tannehill, Wallace, Hartline, Clay, Odrick, Clemons, Patterson, OV/Shelby, Soliai/Starks, Matthews, Sturgis
    Average: Carroll, Wheeler, Ellerbe, Misi, Miller/Thomas, entire O-Line sans Pouncey, Jones this year, Sims, Thigpen and Jordan
    Below-Average: Davis, Taylor, Gillislee, Moore, Egnew, Trusnik, Spitler, Freeny

    What we're missing is a difference-maker(s). Teams like the Saints, Eagles, Broncos, Panthers, etc. have difference makers (Graham/Jordan, Jackson/McCoy, DThomas/JThomas, Kuechly/Olsen). Wake is our only difference maker imo but is having sort of a down year.
     
    Aquafin likes this.
  8. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    it makes me laugh by now that our depth gets questioned all the time but with games on the line backups come in and we don't miss a ****ing beat, i don't even know why this bull**** had to have a thread, we are 8-6 and some could argue we could be sitting pretty at 10-4 right now, this is not average, its a good football team
     
  9. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    That article had some ESPN worthy statements. As if a receivers notoriety should have a bearing on how consistently he should do something. Guys in the NFL have labored in obscurity for years and unless they get a lucky push, they'll never get a big name.

    Before London Fletcher became famous for not being famous, nobody cared he was leading the league in tackles for almost a decade.

    The biggest thing we've learned about the NFL is that if you get an elite to very good QB, deficiencies get masked. How many teams around the league are loaded at every position? The Patriots, for example, are one Tom Brady away from being a really bad team.

    At this point, barring a trade for Josh Gordon or some other player(s) of that caliber, the way we become that good/great team is dependent on Tannehill's development.

    I just think the analysis was shallow, a bit ESPNy, and needlessly biting in some areas.
     
  10. mcdave21

    mcdave21 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You do realize that if not for several underthrows by Tannehill, we aren't having this conversation?
     
  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    There you go again proving yourself wrong with a post meant to devalue the team's talent. If they're a 7 win talent, whey the F are they 8-6 and looking at a very possible 10 win season?

    Agenda much?
     
  12. NolePhin15

    NolePhin15 Well-Known Member

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    I just dont know if I agree with this. We are having guys step up to make plays this year that didnt happen last year. Wallace, Clay, Matthews, and Tannehill all made plays during crucial times of the game last week. The defense stepped up when it had to and made the game winning interception.

    Now maybe these playmakers need to become more consistent at making plays, but I think that will come with time. Its the reason we have 8 wins already with two very winnable games left
     
  13. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    ...this is the craziest thing I've read by a serious poster in this forum. Ever. Never mind we've already won 8 games, thus we have at least 8 win talent, but we are on the verge of more wins. And we blew a few opportunities this season.

    We have 10 win talent.
     
    Tin Indian and Unlucky 13 like this.
  14. NolePhin15

    NolePhin15 Well-Known Member

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    This. The defense stopped Brady on that last drive with Grimes, Patterson, and Carroll on the sidelines.

    The offense played last week and won the last couple games without the original starting TE (Keller), slot receiver (Gibson), LT (Martin), and LG (Cogs).
     
    77FinFan likes this.
  15. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Ryan Tannehill is the biggest reason they are 8-6.
     
    mbsinmisc likes this.
  16. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    You seriously think this team, as it is, can consistently win 10+ games and compete against the top teams in the NFL on a consistent basis?

    That is the definition of taking an unexpected run and completely overvaluing the players on the team. This team doesn't have the difference makers on the field to consistently win 10 games, and despite what some want to think, teams do play over their heads. If Miami had played KC's schedule, they probably already have 10 wins. It doesn't mean they have 10 win talent.
     
    bakedmatt likes this.
  17. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Speak for your delusional self. He's top 10 in a few categories, top 15 in the rest that are barometers for how a QB is performing. How the hell is that NOT above average?

    Damn man...open your eyes! You're missing a great show. He has progressed far and away over last year, and has the potential upside to be elite, no doubt. How many QBs in this league get sacked 51+ times and still put up the numbers he has, don't get rattled, hoist the team on their shoulders in direct spite of the horrid offensive line play, and win in a convincing way in clutch situations, coming back late against favored teams?

    If that's below average, I'll take below average across the board.
     
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  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Not gonna cut it, Mr. "He's a below average Quarterback."
     
  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    How many teams have a better pass-rush QB combination than Miami? If the QB keeps playing like he has the second half of this season, then Miami absolutely can compete against the best of the NFL. They just beat one yesterday.


    Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
     
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  20. mcdave21

    mcdave21 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They already can beat the top teams in the league. Colts, Bengals,Patriots this year. Young team looking to get better next year. Making the playoffs would be a big step in that direction.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  21. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This team has great talent at the most important positions. Pass rusher, CB, QB, TE and Safety. This is definitely a team that can consistently win 10 games if this is truly who Ryan Tannehill is.
     
    thisperishedmin likes this.
  22. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    I looked it up. He's 10th in yards right now, tied for 9th in tds. Hes not average bordering good, he's good bordering greatness
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  23. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Who said anything about Ryan being below average? You are the only person that has used that description of Ryan Tannehill.

    As good as Ryan has been, he's still not playing at the near MVP level that Chad Pennington played at in 2008. Chad played at a level that was able to mask the talent deficiency that 2008 team had, and due to a soft schedule, that team won 11 games. Now, some on here will tell you that means the team had 11 win talent. It didn't. That year was clearly an outlier in the statistical trend. The Dolphins, since 2004, have gone 4-12, 9-7, 6-10, 1-15, 11-5, 7-9, 7-9, 6-10, and 7-9. On average, this team has averaged 6.4 wins over the past 9 years, not including this year. Without the two outliers (11-5 and 1-15), the team has averaged 6.5 wins a year. It is pretty clear that the correlation with these lean years has been personnel, in that the team has been stringing together poor personnel decisions, whether it is coming via the draft or free agency.
     
    unifiedtheory likes this.
  24. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Yes. Absolutely. Without question.

    As long as Ryan Tannehill keeps progressing at this rate, we're going to be a good team for a long time. We aren't stacked at every other position, but we have plenty of other talent to help win games.
     
  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And I would add San Diego and Pittsburgh to that list. They are considered great teams by most. Pittsburgh had a horrible start to the season but have gotten the wheels on, and we took them at Pittsburgh, in the SNOW, with a QB that had never played in those conditions, ever. San Diego just embarrassed the Broncos at Denver, and they're still in the playoff hunt as well.

    To me, the only terrible loss we had this year was against Buffalo, even if it was a 2 point game, and that was a different Miami team than we're seeing now...we have an opportunity to erase that loss this weekend. You could argue Tampa, but that team is better than it's record, it has just made a few bonehead plays at the worst possible time to really do in their season, and they were all kindsa fired up for that game...another early season letdown. Losing to Baltimore was very disappointing, but that's the defending SB champs, and while they lost several starters this off-season, they WILLINGLY lost them...think about that for a minute.
     
  26. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Who are the difference makers?
     
  27. mcdave21

    mcdave21 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm just not sure what any of that has to do with this yr? And while Pennington had a really good yr, he only threw like 17 TDs. The wildcat masked our deficiencies. This team is totally different. They have solid pieces in place. Have some faith!
     
  28. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Who cares what someone thinks? Who cares about power rankings? All that matters is Miami wins.
     
  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    OK, so you said he's average...either way, just as wrong.
     
  30. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Carolina were all bad losses. Those 3 bad losses cost us the bye week. Those bad losses make this team an 8-6 team, and just slightly better than average.
     
  31. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Bookends in Wake and Vernon. Dion Jordan looks like he's going to be a force. Brent Grimes. Charles Clay. A solid receiving unit.

    Running backs are average. The offensive line and LB unit are below average. I have confidence in every other position.
     
  32. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    He had a 97.4 rating over the entire season and was 3rd in the MVP voting for that year. The wildcat was an overrated aspect of that team. It was not the difference maker. Chad Pennington was.

    Ryan has masked a lot of the deficiencies this team has this year, but not to the extent that Chad did in '08. This team is only slightly more talented overall than that 2008 team, which is an indictment of the GM since he has been here since 2008.
     
  33. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    How can you name bad losses and not talk about the Ravens game?
     
  34. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    The 2008 team was also old and filled with journeyman players who played exceptionally well. It was a fun season but we are in much better shape now because we have that potential franchise QB and a lot of youth.
     
  35. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Vernon is not a difference maker. Cam Wake is. Brent Grimes is. Those two are it. They are the only blue chip players on the team right now.

    This team doesn't have difference makers like Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley in the passing game, and they don't have an Adrian Peterson type of difference maker in the running game.
     
  36. mcdave21

    mcdave21 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I wholeheartedly disagree. This team is way more talented across the board and much younger to boot.
     
  37. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Ravens are the champs. That's not a bad loss. Plus, Ravens own us. It's not unacceptable to lose to the Ravens, it happens. The losses to Buffalo, Carolina, and Tampa Bay were unacceptable losses.
     
    RevRick likes this.
  38. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Hmmm let's see...Soliai, Vernon, Grimes, Clay, Tannehill, Pouncey, WR corps in general. Do you actually watch the games or are you basing it on what ESPN and other sites say about teams they don't watch either?

    Edit: Sorry, I didn't mention Patterson...kid was lights out before the injury...but last I checked he's still on this team.
     
  39. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Not sure how you can say Charles Clay isn't a difference maker. That dude makes plays week in and week out.
     
  40. NolePhin15

    NolePhin15 Well-Known Member

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    If at the end of this year Ryan had only thrown 19 TD's, then this team would not have a winning record.

    In order to match the rushing success that Miami had in 2008, Lamar Miller would have to rush for a little under 300 yards in these last two games along with 4 touchdowns per game. Thomas would also have to rush for 130 a game. Overall for 2013 Miami to finish similar to 2008 Miami in rushing, they would have to run for around 550 yards and 8 touchdowns in these last two games.

    Not to mention if Pennington was the QB for this team, he would have been snapped in half by week 3.
     
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