EJ Manuel out this Sunday, Thad Lewis is in

Ironically, that is the same strategy that has saved me from countless STD's over the years...

 

The disrespect and condescension of the Bills (or any NFL team) is how you lose. Our own path in the NFL has mirrored the Bills and Jets for quite some time, splitting games far more than sweeping.

Bottom line, we need to respect this team for what they have accomplished with their QB situation in such flux. Let's win the actual logistical strategizing part rather than just trying to smack talk them into submission.

That said, if they Ray Rice us to death in the flat with Spiller, I'll be like...



AY! Suck my balls, Coyle...

 

These two words don't meet.

I think the Dolphins' chances of going to the playoffs has increased to a coin flip. That's higher than I imagined two weeks ago. But if you recall, my preseason expectation was 8-8 which I changed to 9-7 after the team won 3 straight to start the year, and even when the team lost 4 in a row I explicitly stated that I'm keeping my 9-7 expectations intact for now.

 

Honestly, having to beat the Bills and Jest, last 2 weeks of the season to make the playoffs? I'll take it. **** these two crappy teams, we are better than them. I think this season is the season we put this division on notice. This team seems to be figuring out how to close games. The refs stay out of the this game and we win......

 

just my opinion, but its much better than a coin flip

 

I think we'll win both games and they won't be as close as the last two. I'm probably crazy for letting myself believe this but what the hell. This is really the best scenario they could have possibly hoped for after being 5-6.

 

Stevie Johnson is not expected to be playing on Sunday. Grimes is expected to even though he didn't practice today.

 

I heard a stat today on NFL radio network that teams that had back-to-back road games are something like 27-36-1 this year (something close to those #'s). They were stressing how hard it is to go back to back on the road and most would be happy with split.

Interesting that Phins are 4-0 in that situation (@CLE & @IND to open the year weeks 1 & 2; then @NYJ and @PIT weeks 13 & 14).

And they were all AFC victories too.

 

Maybe, but right now it looks like a straight up race between Baltimore and Miami. I know there are scenarios this way and that. But between those two...well, Baltimore is looking pretty strong right now. So are we. That's why I'm saying coin flip.

 

Also keep in mind that for example if I think there's a 70% chance of Miami winning against Buffalo and a 70% chance of Miami winning against the Jets, then that effectively equals a 50/50 chance Miami goes 9-7. And if Miami goes 9-7 then I don't think Miami gets in.

I'm not staking any extreme positions here so let's not pretend I'm "hating" or anything like that. I'm just aware of the numbers and think they're about at a coin flip.

 

I know you are not "hating" I just dont get why Baltimore makes it a coin flip....we just win out and we are in.

So BAL doesnt keep us from going to the tourney if we beat BUF and NYJ (I get the insurance aspect if BAL loses, but dont care about what they do).

I really see 10-6 (closing out with W's against NE, BUF, NYJ) is right in front of us. Think about that, let it sink in, sweep the division to put a bow on this baby!

I feel this product on the field - the vibe in the locker room - our focus - OUR 2013 Miami Dolphins ceases that moment. Its palatable!

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Baltimore ends up winning the north. I don't think it matters though. I think Miami's winning the next two games.

 

I certainly think the Ravens have a good chance to knock the Bengals out and win the division. Problem is the Ravens can't always rely on the kicker...especially against the Patriots this week.

Don't look past San Diego though. I think they have an advantage over KC in week 17. And they certainly should beat the Raiders. That would mean if the Dolphins do go 9-7, they would win the 6th seed over Baltimore in a 3 way tie with SD.

We really should win both...by taking advantage of Buffalo minus Stevie Johnson and their starting QB (not that it helped last time, but we're playing better). And the Jets will just be ready for the offseason...Santonio Holmes will probably take the week off.

 

Ya these last two weeks are gonna be pretty damn squirrelly. I hope Baltimore loses, but then again I kinda hope they beat New England, on the microscopic hope the Bills also beat 'em, and we win out to win the division...sprinkle in a Bengals loss and we take the #2 seed. SO many possibilities these next 2 games...

Yes...it's a lot to hope for...so what...I'm a hopeful kinda guy!

My down expectation, if I'm being pessimistic, is we slide into the 6th spot this week when N.E. beats the Ravens, and have a VERY tough game ahead against the Jets, who will be treating that game like the Super Bowl to cause as much pain as they can for us.

 

Phins have to win 2 in a row, that is a coin flip basically considering the record and how close the games have been.

Phins can also get in if Baltimore wins or loses both games, that is coin flip.

Phins beat Bills, Ravens and Bengals lose next week, unlikely that such chance should favor us.

Chargers wining both games if we lose one, unlikely.

Baltimore have to split and count that Miami and Chargers split, that is better than a coin flip. That is kinda expected.

 

I don't understand why many are saying the Dolphins winning the last 2 are 50/50...particularly after we just beat two FAR better teams in a row. I believe the team has earned our expectation to win the last two and lay claim to our spot in the post-season.

Losing either of the next 2 games would be a major let-down, not an expectation IMO.

 

Right. Do you feel it's better than a coin flip that we win out? What percentage chance do you see of Miami beating the Bills? What percentage chance do you see of Miami beating the Jets?

Miami is currently favored against Buffalo by 3 points for example. That implies only a 59% win probability. If Miami is favored by 3 points in both games then that means there's only a 35% chance Miami wins both games.

But Miami can also get into the playoffs at 9-7. I just don't personally think there's a high chance of them doing so.

 

I think its about it being a road game in Buffalo, plus two division rivals. Beating 3 division rivals in a row is tough, as is winning 5 in a row. We'll see...this is certainly our best chance in a while to do both.

 

I understand that the team expect to win each game.
However, the expectation of winning is not predicated on teams' wants, nor is it a mere number probability like lottery. Here we have a history of teams who are basically 0.500, close to it. So the odds favor results in 0.500s.

 

Miami has a 50/50 chance at the playoffs and it's Week 16. That's pretty darn good I think. We should be grateful for that.

 

I'd be shocked if we were only favored by one at home against the Jets. That must be assuming we have a poor showing and lose to the Bills. This percentage thing is completely subjective. Miami's playoff odds are around 72% which means people clearly think they have a better than 35% chance of going 10-6. I get it, it's tough to take the plunge and not expect same old Dolphins. I may be kicking myself in a week for buying it but I think they're going to win out.

 

Right now this has us at 70% odds.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

I think they're overstating our odds and understating Baltimore's. As I said Miami would need to be 6 point favorites against both Buffalo and New York over the next two games to even have a 50/50 chance of winning both games. And if they don't win both games then I think the odds are low of them getting in at 9-7.

The above link has us at about 44% chance going 2-0 over the next two games. That actually sounds about what I'm thinking.

 

Alright. Well it sounds like you don't really care about the math and scenario analyses and whatnot, and that's fine. But I do and so we're on different wavelengths.

 

Can't help but suspect this is a thought out, intentional move by the Bills.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens lose to both the Bengals and the Patriots

 

Bellichick rarely loses two in a row and the Ravens won't beat them kicking six FGs. That may have something to do with what people are expecting from Baltimore. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Cincinnati loses out and goes 9-7 either. It also wouldn't surprise me if they beat the Ravens. I think those very real possibilities factor in. I'd put our 2-0 odds over 50% personally. Maybe close to 50 until they win at Buffalo.

 

Yes and No.

On one hand I want to say all NFL games are coin flip (especially Div games) so I get that.

However, on the other hand I want to say, at this stage of the season, we have positioned ourselves as a better football team than both BUF and NYJ and have a better than 50/50 coin flip to win these...I think your 70% or perhaps in my mind more like 75% chance to beat BUF, and same to beat NJY is more likely.

To stay with the coin flip...I am calling heads for 5 weeks in a row....each may have been a 50/50, but its still coming up heads...and while it may feel like the odds of it coming up heads for the 4th and 5th should decrease, we know it hasnt. It cant!

Call it 5 heads in a row....or 5 reds in a row if roulette....I am sticking with the vibe that this is revenge week for #4.....once we take care of that....the momentum train will take us to #5 and the wonderful AFCE sweep to wrap this up.

 

Hey D-line.......remember him?...........tell him "hello" for me.

 

It's kind of silly to assign numerical percentages to something like this in the first place. If Miami wins the next two games that they will be favored to win, they get in the playoffs. It's simple. So you could say it's a good chance. If they needed to win out and get some help it would be more of a coin toss and if they needed to beat superior teams or get a lot of help you'd probably say it was a small chance. Just because I'm not using a percentage based off the betting line doesn't mean I'm not considering scenarios.

 

Also, it seems to me, if you are a numbers guy that feels SPLITS are more likely than not in the division, it would lead to you feeling we have a higher % to win vs BUF, then vs NYJ? right?

 

Quit trying to justify your broken calculator.

 

The scenario analysis isn't taking into consideration a ton of factors for both teams that cant be shown in numbers.

We may or may win both.

 

I think we have a good shot. I do think that equates to better than a coin flip but I'm not going to worry about precise percentages and such based off of betting lines. I remember in 2011 when the Braves spent most of September showing a 90% or higher chance of making the postseason on espn.com. Until the last day when they didn't get in. You can't put a number on these things you just have to go with your gut and the way you see the team performing and trending. If they can beat Pittsburgh in the snow I see no reason why they can't beat Buffalo in the snow. It's definitely a different team [better at RB, better pass rush to deal with, inferior QB] but they haven't proven they're better overall or less beatable than the Steelers. Tannehill is playing better and the team is making less mistakes than the last time they played Buffalo. To me the most important difference is Tannehill's performance.

 

This is all based on CURRENT betting odds.

Right now Cincinnati has 78.5% odds of beating Minnesota. The Ravens are at 51.3% odds of beating New England. San Diego is 88.2% to beat Oakland this weekend. Kansas City is favored 75.2% to beat Indianapolis. Denver is favored 88.2% to beat Houston.

In order to create the scenario in which San Diego gets to 9-7 because Kansas City has nothing to play for in Week 17, the Chiefs would have to lose to Indianapolis this week (24.8%) AND Denver would have to beat Houston (88.2%), AND San Diego would have to beat Oakland (88.2%). This scenario has a 19.3% chance of happening, according to the betting odds.

Now, does KC resting starters mean automatic win for San Diego? Hells no. It's my understanding that San Diego is ELIMINATED if either the Dolphins or the Ravens win this weekend. So there's a 69.5% chance that after this weekend the Chargers are just playing for pride. That would change the landscape of the SDG-KAN game.

You probably couldn't assume a Chargers victory even if the Chargers were playing for everything and the Chiefs nothing. Let's say the line would have been 10.0 points. That carries with it 83.6% odds. Let's say the scenario where the Chargers are playing for nothing but pride and the Chiefs are playing for nothing carries with it a line of Chargers -6.0 (70.7%). That would mean the Chargers have a 74.6% chance of winning in this scenario which started with a 19.3% chance of happening.

In total, the Chargers have a 14.4% chance of screwing up the Baltimore/Cincinnati vs. Miami head-to-head dynamic.

Going back to that dynamic, if we're to assume a Baltimore-Cincinnati Pick'em in Week 17 then there's a 10.8% chance of Cincinnati losing both of the next games to go 9-7 and be involved in a 9-7 tie with the Dolphins, which the Dolphins would win. This scenario stays the same whether Baltimore wins or loses against New England.

On the other hand, the only scenario in which Baltimore loses to Miami in a 9-7 tie is the previously discussed San Diego scenario (14.4%). Baltimore currently stands at

To me, this means that if Miami goes 9-7 then they have a 25.2% chance of making the playoffs.

I would estimate spread-based odds of Miami having an 11.9% chance of going 8-8 (at which point I believe their odds of the playoffs are zero), a 42.0% chance of the Dolphins going 10-6 (at which point their playoff odds are 100%) and a 46.1% chance of the Dolphins going 9-7 (at which point I estimate their odds to be 25.2%).

The sum total of this is about 53.6%...or as I said before, about a coin flip.

 

So 70% and 70% favorites is equal to 50/50 odds. I'm no Good Will Hunting but that math sounds a little off to me.

 

Ummm, Miami will be a much better than 3 point fav over the Jets. Especially if the take care of buisness @Buff.

 

I'm curious about where the 70% overall odds came from then. It seems like maybe some think Baltimore is more likely to lose their last two. I completely agree that Miami's odds of getting in at 9-7 suck because I don't think the Ravens lose both of their last two. I just happen to think their odds of 10-6 are fairly strong at this point. I wouldn't have thought that after the Jets win [I thought the odds of 10-6 were slim then as I'm sure we all did] but now it's pretty doable.

 

People may not realize it, the Bills game is as big as the patriots game, maybe a bit larger b/c the Pats/Ravens matchup is also this weekend, basically this weekend is our best chance to surpass the Ravens

 

May not seem right, but it is.

 

As long as the team realizes it. I would hope they do. If we lose a game again I don't think we're getting in. These 'getting help' scenarios never fall our way. Really if we win at Buffalo we can root for the Ravens to keep our outside shot of winning the East alive.