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A Statistical look at "expectations" (Final analysis)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Section126, Dec 30, 2013.

  1. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    I use a formula that has served me well for years now based on the historical production (wins) based on several factors:

    Aside from the usual advanced Def. and Off. Eff. stats..I use:

    A) 3rd down conversion % on the road. (for and against)
    B) 1st down YPP
    C) Penalty yardage per drive.
    D) Avg. Poss. against / time per poss.


    Before the season..projecting with our new additions, the Dolphins figured to be a +8.5 win team. Which is ok...

    As the season went on, the historical data was upticking throughout with a slight dip and then drastic spike in our last 3 game win streak. At 8-6..the team had historical data to suggest a +10.5 win team. That is damn good. Only the Broncos, Seahawks, Chiefs, and Panthers had a better win rating.

    Then these games came.

    The Miami Dolphins managed to do something that has only been done once before in the years I chart (1997-today). They managed to lose 2 games off their win projection with two actual losses. The only other time that happened? 2002 Miami Dolphins. That team had the HIGHEST win projection in the NFL after beating the Raiders...then dropped two full games down from +11.5 to +9.5 with the final two losses.

    That team was also the only Dolphin team since 1997 that had the numerical classification as a Super Bowl contender.


    Here is the question....what type of team can reverse it's historical statistical classification with a mere two games? Answer? THIS TEAM!
     
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  2. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    So what you are saying is that according to these calculations, Philbin had the opportunity to coach a team with the talent level of a Super Bowl contender.

    Forgetting Ireland's failures in FA and the 2013 draft, this is still a colossal failure on the coaching staff and leads me to two conclusions:

    1) Ireland and Philbin need to both be fired
    2) This job, with Tannehill as a potential franchise QB is very attractive to the right GM/Coach.
     
  3. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    No...Wanny had the opportunity to coach a team that was a super bowl contender.

    Philbin had a playoff contender.
     
  4. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    In essence....Philbin had a team at 8-6 that at +10.5 wins likely makes the playoffs +86% of the time. With the two losses, dropping their win projection to +8.5...that made them a team that historically makes the playoffs around 52% of the time.
     
  5. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Question. Why don't you track offensive and defensive passer rating?
     
  6. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    I do. That's in the Off. and Def. Efficiency ratings.
     
  7. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Might I inquire as to the purpose of this study? It sounds like you're using a very elaborate formula to tell you something you already know, so either I'm missing something or you've gone bonkers in 1997.

    I like bonkers, by the way.
     
  8. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    When you describe them as offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, it makes me think of Football Outsiders' ridiculous DVOA stat.

    So what you call offensive and defensive efficiency is just offensive and defensive passer rating?
     
  9. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    To project win totals for every team in the NFL each year. I already do it for the NBA every year....so I just applied it to the NFL and it is remarkably accurate.
     
  10. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    I use off. and Def. passer rating as well...but this is what I refer too when I say Off. and Def. Eff.:

    http://www.gridironrank.com/2013-dolphins.html
     
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  11. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Hold on. You're feeding it data from the current season to project the eventual win totals in the very same season? So a team that's 4-3, in all likelihood, will have a projected win total in the 7-9 range, while a team that's 5-1 will have a projected win total of, I would guess, 8-11. How's that not telling you what you already know simply by looking at the current standings? Or to put it differently: Does it account for teams that significantly over- or underachieve in one part of a season? Because the thing about the spike during Miami's winning stretch sounds like it's going with the flow.
     
  12. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    no.

    I compare the current season with the projection. Then waited for the season to end to see where it stood historically.

    it is entirely possible that this 8-8 season would be worth a projection of +4.5 wins..like the NY JETS. (see what I am getting at?)

    The Dolphins preseason projection was +8.5 wins. At points during the season, the numbers were showing a team that was overachieving...in the end...it showed one that slightly under-achieved. But if you put it up at 8-6..it shows a team that VASTLY underachieved...by 2 games.
     
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  13. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I'm beginning to get it.

    What do you base the projection on?
     
  14. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    Historical data. Basically...what 8-8 teams on average..produce...7-9 teams.....10-6 teams..etc..I then adjust for Strength of Schedule.
     
  15. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    And the preseason projection?

    Either my parents dropped me on the head a lot of times (entirely possible) or I'm beginning to un-get it.
     
  16. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    Preseason projection was +8.5 wins.
     
  17. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    That 2002 team had the best offensive production by a Miami Dolphins team in recent memory. They averaged 1.9 points per drive. That was Norv Turner's first year as the offensive coordinator and also Ricky Williams's record setting year.
     
  18. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    2002 team was a legitimate SB threat...

    Why you pass the ball 3 straight times to leave NE with time and timeouts when you have the leagues best RB that year is still beyond me.
     
  19. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    sack leader and rushing leader in the whole NFL and nothing to show for it....what a collapse that year was
     
  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    In a nutshell, this team under performed.

    The stunning part is losing the two games to Buf and NYJ, I'd think statistically those 2 losses coming in back to back weeks would nearly be a black swan event.
     
  21. unifiedtheory

    unifiedtheory Sub Pending Luxury Box

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    You've done EXACTLY what I've been doing, comparing this meltdown to the 2002 team.

    What should have been done? Wannstedt should have been fired immediately. Instead, he hung on and a year and a half later, we bottomed out.

    This is the same situation and I see a similar circumstance coming. The only difference is, I believe we have a quarterback now. It's possible that we destroy him by 2015, the year we go 3-13 if this current band of morons is retained.

    Fire them, fire them all.
     
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  22. unifiedtheory

    unifiedtheory Sub Pending Luxury Box

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    And Wannstedt kept his ****ing job. I'm getting the same feeling now.
     
  23. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    You said yourself they started as a 8.5...... So it was the 3 game win streak that spiked the projections before the team reverted back to its usual ways.

    Either way, we tanked. Coaching is the reason we've been so wildly inconsistent. We got into a position to make the playoffs because of the quality of the roster.
     
  24. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    I'm sorry, but when you are projected to win 8.5 games and you win 8, that's not a coaching issue. The fact that you are only projected to win 8.5 in the first place shows that it is a talent issue. 8.5 wins is the highest projection I saw for this team prior to the season. The team's expected wins was 7.5-8.5. The team won 8 games. If anything, the performed as they should have been expected to have performed. I don't know that the projections actually took into account just how bad this line was. Ryan Tannehill's play tanked in the last two games, but his play in total really offset the lack of ability the team had up front in many ways. It was just not enough to make this a 10 win team.
     
  25. Phinatic74

    Phinatic74 New Member

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    So you know ahead of time that these Wild Card teams keep making the superbowl? I got a few a bets I need you to look at!
     
  26. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    no way to project the playoffs. playoffs are random. just win totals, and team statistical standing.

    it is possible to win around 11 games and be rather terrible. Last year's Colts team was awful statistically.
     

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