Free Agents/ Breakout Season Candidates

He showed a lot of improvement. From Week 9 on he only had positive grades overall and in pass blocking (except for a -0.6 in week 15) from PFF. His overall was most effected by atrocious ratings in Weeks 3, 4, and 8. Those 3 games added up to a -14.1. His total overall was a +2.2. So if you removed those 3 games from his overall score, it would have been about a +16. Week 9 on he was a +14.9 and before Week 9 his overall was -13. That does not add up to an overall of +2.2, but +1.9 instead. I rechecked the numbers several times with the same outcome. Added all the positive scores, then added all the negatives. Then subtracted the negative total from the positive total. Same answer every time. Either my calculator does not work, or I forgot how to do simple math, or their 2.2 number is a typo.

 

7 sacks through Week 8. 4 afterwards.
6 hits through Week 8, then 2 after.
29 hurries through Week 8, then 12 after.
All numbers include the WC game too btw.

 

Yes, I think it's safe to say he improved as the season went on.

His game in-game PBEs during the second half of the season averaged 95.8 versus the first half of the season being 89.5.

There was a pretty clear pattern of getting better that way. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyone's eyes with a dishonest or misleading stat. PFF shows 5 of his first 8 games having in-game PBEs in the 80's. But he didn't have a single game in the 80's the second half of the year, his lowest were in the 92's.

For perspective, a 95.8 PBE would have ranked #10 or #11 in the league if it were a full-season statistic.

He was a rookie, he improved a lot as the year went on, and he wasn't playing the left spot where he was much better in college than the right.

Sometimes we take for granted that a guy plays on one side the same way he plays on another side. In my experience, for whatever that is worth, there have been guys who can switch up and it's not a big deal whatsoever, but there are also a lot of guys that say it's like trying to write with your left hand if you're right-handed.

I don't like the full year PBE he had in his rookie year, and I'm a pretty big believer in that stat. But given the things I mentioned above, his rookie status, his move from left to right, his dramatic improvement from 1H2013 to 2H2013...I feel a heck of a lot more comfortable.

I've said it since the first person posed the question...would you trade Dion Jordan for Lane Johnson? Yes, I would.

Had I traded up from #12 to #3 overall the guy I would have taken would have been Lane Johnson, going off my player rankings. However, I give all the credit for the move to Jeff Ireland. And I'm being serious about that, he moved from #12 to #3 at an absurdly cheap price tag according to normal chart stuff. I can't sit here with any semblance of intellectual honesty tell you I would have been able to work out that trade...because I have absolutely no idea.

 

This is just spit-balling because I have not completed tape evaluation of these guys.

But I am a big fan of the idea of engaging a free agency strategy that allows you to head into the draft free of overwhelming needs that must be filled. I think you have to let the draft fall to you and pick up the best talents that you've identified.

So what could a free agent strategy that accomplishes this look like?

Say for example you were to re-sign Paul Soliai and Brent Grimes.

You would probably cut Dimitri Patterson because it saves a whopping $5.4 million and the guy hasn't been healthy since 2011.

Let's hold off for now on cutting Matt Moore because you really do need a backup quarterback in this league and I'm not sure I'm willing to cut this one for $4 million in cap savings. That's about what it would cost to replace him with a backup quarterback you have any amount of faith in. When the Dolphins gave their big vote of "no confidence" in Pat Devlin by re-signing Matt Moore...that affected me. So I don't have any confidence in him either.

I don't pretend to know exactly how much money each of the following FAs would get. I try and keep it basic so I'll use dollar signs to denote how expensive I think the players will be. I think the "$$$$$" honor belongs to guys like Mike Wallace whereas a "$$$$" is Dannell Ellerbe or Reshad Jones money. I think of "$$$" as being around that Dustin Keller, Philip Wheeler, Brian Hartline area of contract expense. I think of Koa Misi's extension as being kind of the ceiling for the "$$" level, somewhere around $3-4 million per year. Lower than that, anywhere from vet's minimum (which is near enough to $1 million a year) to about $2 million a year would be in the bargain basement category.

$$$$$: None
$$$$: CB Sam Shields, CB Brent Grimes
$$$: LT Anthony Collins, DT Paul Soliai, FS Stevie Brown
$$: RG Geoff Schwartz, TE Jeff Cumberland, DT Nate Collins, LB Dekoda Watson
$: LT Bryant McKinnie, RT Ryan Harris, LG Shelley Smith, RB Brian Leonard, WR Jacoby Ford

Again I don't have exact numbers but I think that's about $50 million in new average salary commitments.

However, first year salary cap numbers are typically about 80% of what the average salary commitment of a contract is. Sometimes it's much less than that. For example Mike Wallace's cap hit in his 1st year was only 27% of what his average contract salary is. Dannell Ellerbe's 1st year cap hit was only 35% of his average contract value. Phil Wheeler's 1st year was 46% of average contract value.

So I feel like I'm actually being quite responsible by assuming 80% 1st year-to-average contract value ratio. Reality is it could be much less than that.

So at 80% it would actually be more like $40 million in new money including our re-signing.

But the way the cap works, you only count the top 51 salary cap figures. So the above gets "discounted" by the sum of whichever salaries on the low end get bumped below the 51 mark. Based on Spotrac's breakdown that would mean $5.2 million of salaries bumped below the 51 mark.

So you need $34-35 million in 2014 cap space to sign the above package of veterans.

The Dolphins have $18.1 million of available carry-over from 2013 to 2014.

https://nflplayers.com/reports/RunPublicReport.aspx?report=top51

The team has $14.9 million in available cap space based on a widely-projected $126.3 million salary cap in 2014.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/cap-hit/2014/

They would save $5.4 million by cutting Dimitri Patterson.

That's about $38-39 million in space whereas you probably need about $34-35 million to sign the above package of veterans, leaving you $3-5 million to get the rookies under contract (which is all you generally need).

It might be a relatively tight fit (especially at 80%) but I don't feel we would be taxing our future too much so long as Aponte generally kept the contracts short and exitable.

The best part to me is that you get to go into the draft not thinking, OK I need to use my 1st round pick on a tackle, and my 2nd round pick on a tight end or running back, my 3rd round pick on a safety, etc.

Somehow walk out of the draft with a package of players like DT Aaron Donald, TE Troy Niklas, RB Lache Seastrunk, RT JaWuan James, CB Chris Davis and LB Eddie Lackey and this GM could win me over despite my misgivings with him personally.

 

Also need to look at the savings from cutting players like Garner, Thomas, Trusnik and Martin.

 

Jonathan Martin is sure to be jettisoned but the amount of savings is not significant enough to probably even mention. It might even be nil as his cap acceleration might be roughly approximate to his 2014 salary.

Jason Trusnik will maybe net you a $700k gain but then that bumps someone back into the top 51 so really you've saved something like $200k.

Cutting Dallas Thomas probably results in an overall 2014 cap loss.

Nate Garner could save a little bit of money but honestly is it worth it? He played OK in 2013 and he plays all of the positions. Literally all five. You drop him and you just have to replace him and that's going to cost about the same as it does to keep him. I just see dropping him as unnecessary churn.

 

You keep Garner and Thomas.

Garner is still a versatile backup and Thomas could improve to at least backup level quality under the hopefully new tutelage of Benton.

 

If all of that happens, I'll be happy to applaud Hickey.

I'm not holding my breath, but it's not entirely outside the realm of possibilities

 

Don't have much hope for Dallas Thomas but yeah I suppose you keep him. Just...well hell, I dunno why.

At least until he gets beat out for a job by ANOTHER undrafted free agent rookie...

 

Seattle corner Walter Thurmond deserves some attention. He's been a good player ever since Oregon and he's been a key player in Seattle's Super Bowl run. And I don't think he's about to get big money, either. If someone wanted to scratch Sam Shields off my list and replace him with Walter Thurmond I wouldn't cry about it.

But I think the point to make here is that Jamar Taylor and Will Davis remain complete question marks at this point...and I don't know that you count on them to start simply because of 2nd or 3rd round draft status.

If you recognize that you can't count on a guy in Dimitri Patterson who hasn't been healthy since 2010 to 2011, then you must recognize IMO that Brent Grimes is not the only corner you need to set your eyes on in free agency, unless you plan on drafting one at 19 overall.

 

Bc cutting a 3rd round pick after one year is stupid?

 

Didn't Thurmond take a PED suspension this year?

I think he's 1 strike from a year suspension. Would need to be an affordable contract. And if you're into taking chances, Brandon Browner could get reinstated....

 

Well, look at it this way, there is no point to cutting him prior to FA.

If he gets beaten out in training camp and he's not amongst your Top 8, then fine, cut him.

 

wouldn't be the first time we've done that...he's an Ireland mid rounder, the odds are stacked against him.

 

My Plan:

Re-sign:
Starks
Carroll
Clemons

Cut:
Patterson
Jon Martin
Wheeler

Cut/Trade:
Matt Moore

FA Signings:
Sam Shields
Jared Veldheer or Eugene Monroe
Geoff Schwartz
Dekoda Watson
Al Woods

this would give us some flexibility in the 1st to truly go BPA, like taking a stud like Ebron, which gives our offense some much needed size, length, and leaping ability. Then in the 2nd round you simply go best OL available, and we'd probably have to take another offensive lineman in the 3rd or 4th, guys like Morgan Moses, Tiny Richardson, Cyril Richardon, Billy Turner, JuWaun James could go in that range, we could even gamble on a Seantrel Henderson if we have faith in John Benton getting the most out of him. you also get Daniel Thomas's replacement in the 3rd or 4th be it a Carlos Hyde or Jeremy Hill etc.

 

cost you 10.6 mill to cut wheeler. You can keep him for 6.4

 

IMO, it is very unlikely we can afford to cut Wheeler or Ellerbe since their base salaries are guaranteed this year. We should keep them and see if Duffner can get them up to speed.

 

I think they may give it one more go with Wheeler and Ellerbe thinking they could just need a year to get used to the new system and environment.

 

yeah no kiddin. It was such a good trade up bargain that I never gave a moment's thought about Dion Jordan or Lane Johnson being within our range. I thought perhaps a trade up to 6th for Ansah or Mingo could've been a possibility, but not all the way up to #3.

 

Trouble is you have to take into account how many times:
1. the play was diagnosed before it began by the defense due to the predictability level, and:
2. the number of times the defensive tackle and sometimes even the linebackers were in our backfield as the RB got the ball.

Those two factors seem to have held our conversion percentage to very low percentage levels (to understate it!) I'm not sure if Kuhn or Leonard would have done any better behind that line.

We probably need to find four or five possible to highly probable starters in FA, draft 3 or 4 more between round two and UDFA, throw them in a bag with the leftovers from this year, beat the snot out of them and see who winds up standing up. In round one, draft best player on the board.

Just my two ducats.

 

Patrick Turner?

 

I think they are pretty much stuck w/ them, but I feel like you do; I want another year, hopefully some better coaching and hopefully they are better than serviceable.

 

I'm hoping we bring Nolan Carroll back. Grimes, Carroll, Taylor, Wilson and Davis is a decent group. Maybe add a rookie or a bargain bin FA but I'd like to see our $$$ going to homegrown guys whenever possible and only to outsiders when absolutely necessary.

 

Wheeler would be our best linebacker if we ran a scheme with his eyes to the QB. We took what a guy is good at and then made sure he never did it.

Its one of the reasons I'm iffy on Coyle.

 

Agreed. We should bring back Grimes, Carrol, Soliai and Clemons, that way we'd keep our defense relatively intact. Cut Patterson, keep Matt Moore and Gibson. Then we should sign a couple of offensive lineman (a guard and a tackle at least), a mid-level DT and a veteran RB so as not to have our hands tied during the draft.

My ideal draft would be to trade down to end of first and get an extra third.

1) TE- Troy Niklas
2) RB- Lache Seastrunk
3a) OG/OT
3b) OG/OT
4 and beyond) BPA

What an offense we would have on paper...

 

looks like you were right, he was tendered at the lowest level which means we can pry him away with no draft pick compensation since he was undrafted.

the question is how much will we have to pay him to steal him away? we can probably offer him a 2 year $5 million deal and they wouldn't match.

 

Dallas restructured Romo to get within one million dollars of the cap. Wow, I may not have liked everything he did but Jeffie left a fat checkbook.

 

I like Moreno although i think he will be expensive for what he did (1 good season). I also like Toby as mentioned by a few people. I think we need a couple of running backs and one that makes the hard yards so he fits. I just dont have confidence running the ball from a few yards that Thomas or Miller can smash through.
What about Jones-drew? decent a few years ago. I also like Rasheed Jennings from Oakland as a bench runner.
Spend on 1 and draft 1 ? last year Lacy and Bell both came in later rounds and performed.

OL needs serious money spending, too much to say here.

Anyone think we could do with 1 more receiver? a big brute out of the Calvin Johnson mold? Wallace is a deep threat and Hartline in the slot but a big guy is really useful, maybe Charles Clay could step up?

 

Here are the guys that I expect will have the most demand in Free Agency:

QB: Michael Vick
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, LeGarrette Blount, Rashad Jennings, Ben Tate, Toby Gerhart
FB: (none)
TE: Jermichael Finley, Brandon Pettigrew
WR: Golden Tate, James Jones, Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks
OT: Eugene Monroe (LT), Branden Albert (LT), Jared Veldheer (LT), Zach Strief (RT), Michael Oher (RT)
OG: Rodger Saffold (RG), Zane Beadles (LG), Jon Asamoah (RG)
OC: Brian De La Puente, Jonathan Goodwin, Ryan Wendell
DT: B.J. Raji, Paul Soliai, Randy Starks, Linval Joseph, Red Bryant, Tyson Jackson, Kevin Williams
DE: Michael Johnson, Brian Orakpo, Michael Bennett, Lamarr Houston, Corey Wootton, Jared Allen, Justin Tuck
LB: Brandon Spikes, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Smith, Jonathan Vilma, D'Qwell Jackson, Jon Beason
CB: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Aqib Talib, Alterraun Verner, Sam Shields, Vontae Davis, Tarell Brown, Captain Munnerlyn
S: Jairus Byrd, Donte Whitner, T.J. Ward, Louis Delmas, Antoine Bethea


HOWEVER, here are some of the free agents that have caught my eye thus far in film study, that I think will generally go at discounts compared to the guys above:

QB: Josh McCown, Dan Orlovsky
RB: Donald Brown
FB: John Kuhn, Michael Robinson
TE: Jeff Cumberland, Garrett Graham, David Johnson
WR: Andrew Hawkins, Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham, Jacoby Ford
OT: Anthony Collins (LT), Chris Clark (LT/RT), Austin Howard (RT), Andrew Gardner (RT), J'Marcus Webb (RT)
OG: Geoff Schwartz (RG), Travelle Wharton (LG), Shelley Smith (LG), Mike Pollak (RG), Garrett Reynolds (RG)
OC: Evan Dietrich-Smith
DT: Arthur Jones, Clinton McDonald
DE: Everson Griffen, Mike Neal, Israel Idonije, Marcus Benard
LB: Wesley Woodyard, Dekoda Watson, Desmond Bishop, Akeem Jordan
CB: Brandon Browner, Trumaine McBride, Walter Thurmond, Corey Graham, Derek Cox, Chris Owens, E.J. Biggers, Drayton Florence
S: Stevie Brown, Ed Reed, Quintin Mikell, Major Wright, Quintin Demps

 

If the Dolphins were to swipe the first name off my entire list of discount guys with the exception of perhaps the QB, OC and DE positions since we're pretty full-up in those areas...I'd be a happy camper.

Donald Brown, John Kuhn, Jeff Cumberland, Andrew Hawkins, Anthony Collins, Geoff Schwartz, Arthur Jones, Wesley Woodyard, Brandon Browner, Stevie Brown.

That's a full free agency but IMO a good one.

You could also add some names from the end of the individual position lists because they will count next to nothing against the salary cap. The "top 51" rule means that once you have 51+ players on roster, every guy you add to the roster bumps someone's salary off the books. So if you sign a guy for the vet's minimum (e.g. $600-700k) then he'll be bumping someone's $400k roster off the books.

Examples of the really cheap guys I'd like to explore include Chris Owens, Marcus Benard, Andrew Gardner, Domenik Hixon, David Johnson and Dan Orlovsky.

 

How much of the issues that JJ has/has had are part of the whole bully-gate ordeal and can he finally break out now that the OL will be basically blown up ?? Is that lack of maturity due to the lack of mature leadership that OL has had for several years ?? I think they just might want to retain him, but is he willing to come back ?? The most likely scenario is that he joins another team and develops into a nice addition for them...

 

From that Dave Hyde article, I found this to be well stated:

I said something similar about RG3 when he came out. Collisions find him on the field, they hurt him in college, and now they've hurt him in the pros. Manziel isn't even as big as RG3 though, nor as fast, and doesn't have nearly the throwing skills.

 

Jerry is not a good run blocker in a zone scheme. Even without bullygate, I'd think we'd want to make a change there.

 

He goes against a lot of my beliefs when it comes to frame fit for this level, it does make me hesitate, but I don't think we're talking about the same lack of awareness that RG's 3 has in the open field..I think he's smart enough to adapt when he's past the Los..

 

Then how do you think I feel? LOL.

In all seriousness I don't grade drafts immediately after they happen. I always make it clear that all I'm doing is telling you how much this draft was compatible with my feelings on the draft class, and time will tell how good or bad it is. I thought the 2012 draft was actually very compatible with my draft rankings. Doesn't mean they took guys I would have ultimately decided on but they generally took guys whose values looked good to me at the spot they took them.

But there have been other drafts where they didn't really do that and I think 2013 was one of them.

 

CK is a big #### tease..

Just to let you know the work that you do here doesn't go unnoticed or unappreciated, a lot of it is cutting edge stuff..I often wonder what the hell your doing not working your way up an NFL front office ladder and whether or not you need a manager..lol

 

I continue to be a little wary of Jairus Byrd. I think it's hard to limit how much the opposition's ground game can hurt your defense when your last line of defense has 4.7 speed.

Unlike what someone on twitter argued with me, it's not about getting behind a runner and tracking him down from behind. It's about lateral pursuit angles forcing a runner to stop, slow down, cut back to where there's help, or go out of bounds. When you have speed like Chris Clemons, just by being disciplined in your lateral pursuit angles you really limit the damage a runner does when he breaks into the secondary. And with our linebackers unit that happened quite a bit.

But maybe Byrd's instincts especially in the passing game are just so good it's worth it. I think the point about him being compatible with Reshad Jones could be a good one. Byrd is a guy you've never wanted to have in the box because it makes his lack of speed all that more of an issue. Keep him far from the line of scrimmage where he can use his eyes, and you give him more of a chance to make up for his lack of speed with anticipation and key reads. Put him closer where everything is bang-bang and the lack of athletic ability could kill him. On the other hand Reshad Jones is a guy that I think you want closer to the line more than he's been with us.

Question is will Kevin Coyle be willing to do something like that? He doesn't seem very...good...at putting players in position to utilize their strengths.