I'm not as big a fan of Beckham as some, but I will take Beckham over Landry all day. I think the primary function of Jarvis Landry on tape is to show people what Odell Beckham doesn't necessarily have that he really should if he wants to be the kind of top notch prospect some people think he is. Beckham was not the guy the LSU coaches or quarterback felt they could rely on to get the job done when it mattered most. For all his athletic ability he wasn't even the guy they felt comfortable using on screens...and screen plays are the quintessential "let's just get the ball to so-and-so and see what he can do" plays. They did that with Landry more than Beckham. Sometimes that happens to even good receivers like Cordarrelle Patterson vs Justin Hunter...but with Hunter at least you knew he's a physical dynamo in his own right. Jarvis Landry clocked 4.65 unofficial with terrible jump metrics. They got the ball to him more than Beckham because they felt there were holes in Beckham's game rather than because Landry was a dynamic player. It is more similar to B.J. Cunniingham being "the" guy at Michigan State despite Keshawn Martin having much better physical potential and pro future. But you'll notice Keshawn Martin isn't exactly a great NFL wide receiver, just a valid rotator. That's one of the things I worry about with Odell Beckham Jr...why I can't conscience drafting him 1st round. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I don't have him off my board period. Obviously I like something there if I'm willing to draft him on Day 2. He has the form of a really good wide receiver, and reminds me a lot of Mike Wallace in both the good and bad ways. My concern is that he seemed to disappear against physically aggressive and competent man coverage. He had a stupendous game against Mississippi State but there was a lot of off coverage going on, a couple of big catches underneath deep zones on blitz plays, mixed in with Taveze Calhoun really covering him awfully in man on a few plays. The game was definitely a feather in Beckham's cap but the problem is when I went to try and find more like that I had trouble. When I saw him being covered aggressively I mostly saw him disappear. When he faced up with Jason Verrett, he got one catch underneath Verrett's soft zone and the catch didn't go for a first down. To be fair there was a DPI flag in the end zone but the replay showed it to be a ghost penalty. I see Darqueze Dennard try and get away with things 10x worse on a regular basis (and often he does). When Beckham faced Vernon Hargreaves, no catches. When Beckham faced some of Auburn's more aggressive coverage (not even Chris Davis, who didn't play) he kind of wilted. He had two nice catches on Loucheiz Purifoy but as we've been discussing, some of those Florida corners aside from Hargreaves are terribly overrated. There's definitely potential with Odell Beckham...but there's something missing and because of that I couldn't draft him until Day 2.
So I guess Blake Bortles was being asked about his girlfriend during the combine interviews. Hilarious. Surely GM's must have been reading this thread.
I think as we go on Cyril Richardson has the look of having been overrated at Baylor. However I'm not really sure Gabe Jackson was overrated. I think a guy like Trai Turner was certainly underrated and I like him a lot. But there's room in the NFL for a Gabe Jackson. He's incredibly solid and strong. I don't expect him to run a great 40 time or anything like that but he's got good lower body explosion. His vertical and broad jump were good for that size (330+). And I'm watching him go up against Ego Ferguson snap for snap and just handle the dude. Ferguson's a pretty decent prospect but Gabe Jackson is dominating here and that shows something. Obviously if you want a guy to get out to the second level all the time then Gabe is not your guy. And in power schemes you probably wouldn't make him your puller. But that doesn't mean he can't play. He can play.
Looking at OT numbers, you have to be concerned about filling the team with a lot of unathletic OLmen. They are just overmatched against the rest of the field.
what's your point? Clemson recruited the 2nd best corner in the country last year. Mackensie Alexander.
He plays a little faster than 4.62. Richard Sherman runs a 4.53 yet you don't see anyone getting behind him in a Cover-3 system.
Does everything have to be about your love for all things Clemson? DJ literally had just asked, "What is up with that gator program and recruiting cornerbacks." I answered by informing him that they recruited the top corner prospect in the nation just last year. It was relevant to the conversation. Clemson on the other hand, is irrelevant to the conversation.
Richard Sherman might literally be THE smartest corner in the game. He admits himself that he takes chances based on what he's seeing and that if teams called things a certain other way he might get burned. A 4.5 corner can protect himself from getting burned deep by adjusting his cushion and the timing of his hip turn, being disciplined.
I finally got a chance to watch some of the Combine that I have recorded, and man am I impressed with Mike Evans. He is going to be special. Fully understanding the Dolphins have several more pressing needs than WR, and that none of Wallace, Hartline, and Evans are really suited for the slot, I would have a really tough time passing on that guy if he somehow fell to 19. He is going to be an elite WR IMO. I really, really hope the Jets don't draft him.
The only thing that can get in the way is his attitude, IMO. That's the only reason I can't rate him the same as Sammy Watkins. Watch the Mike Evans vs. Duke game on YouTube if you want to know what I mean. But there have always been other little signs. Ross Cockrell really got him to lose his cool. Cockrell is a highly underrated corner prospect. He ran well in Indy and he also did REALLY well against Kelvin Benjamin. There were clearly times when Evans' natural abilities were too much for Cockrell (they would be too much for almost any corner if Evans was able to harness the ability and bring it every play) but in total I hand the win to Cockrell. [video=youtube;Zr-cIY3u8Tk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr-cIY3u8Tk&feature=player_embedded[/video]
The quarterback I saw in the Capital One Bowl was as much or more of a pro prospect as the quarterback I saw in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl. Virtually the same skill sets.
Finally got round to watching CB Phillip Gaines of Rice. I watched his matchup with Quinton Patton in 2012. You could tell he earned Patton's respect. Patton nailed him on two catches I believe, one a nice back shoulder fade-stop and another skinny post in the end zone. Patton used his hands to push off a bit on the fade-stop but not in a way that will get flagged a lot. On the post, Gaines lost a little ground but made up a lot of it and was draped on Patton's hips but the ball was too well thrown and Patton is comfortable making catches in physical coverage. Gaines was better in 2013 but still inconsistent. Sometimes it's an A+ and sometimes more like a C+.
Marcus Smith is an interesting player that could in other years have gone 1st round. I don't think he will in this particular draft. He reminds me a lot of Derrick Morgan. Very good athlete and a very, very consistent football player. Very wide array of skills. He's good at pretty much everything. He's not great at any one thing though and the bottom line is for a pass rusher he only has adequate bend ability and a really annoying habit of being successfully blocked by backfield protection. Because of the scheme and his position he gets matched up on backfield protection all the time. You want to see him just go ahead and dominate those backfield protectors either with frame, or with power, or just overall savvy...but he doesn't do it very often.
Not if mason or seastrunk is there. IMO Hyde is overrated and doesn't have the skills to do what he wants at pro level.
Starting to really like some of these mid-round pass rushers. Kyle Van Noy, Scott Crichton, Kareem Martin, James Gayle, Marcus Smith, Trevor Reilly, Tyler Starr, Larry Webster, Jonathan Newsome and Roosevelt Nix leading the way for me thus far. They're all so good that I'm not sure why I'd even bother with some of the guys I feel only lukewarm at best about. Some examples of those types would be Jackson Jeffcoat, Trent Murphy (pending), Chris Smith, Michael Sam, Will Clarke, Carl Bradford (pending), Ed Stinson (pending) and Josh Mauro (pending). The pending guys are ones I've done film on in the past but haven't re-checked and so I can't be conclusive. I still have to re-do my film work on Demarcus Lawrence, Aaron Lynch, Taylor Hart and Jeremiah Attaochu.
Jonathan Newsome of Ball State was an absolute delight to watch on film. This guy is extremely explosive. He's got cinder blocks for hands. He's got the best inside move in the draft aside from Jadaveon Clowney who may have the best inside move I've ever seen. I'm not sure I saw a single player, even Vic Beasley, give Morgan Moses as much trouble as this guy gave him regularly when Ball State played UVA. [video=youtube;0OrIN1idMxo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OrIN1idMxo[/video] Athletically he's 6'3" and 247 lbs. His best 40 time was a 4.69 with a 1.62 at the 10 yard mark. Did 21 bench reps, 34 inch vertical, 9'9" broad jump, 7.31 cone...really unexciting stuff. But you want 11 of these types of players on your defense. He challenges the prototypes and notions of what is athletically acceptable in a way that few prospects do. This year most of the guys I've liked on film have been able to show what stands out about them in the Combine setting. Jonathan Newsome does not look at all on paper the way he does on the field. He's very challenging that way.
Trying to find some late-round statistical outliers (guys with great numbers that I wouldn't expect) Pretty blah on Storm Johnson so far. I was really hoping I'd find something good, but not much. Interestingly, I was watching the panel from the Sloan Analytics Conference and one of the things that the 49ers' President mentioned he liked were 20+ yard runs. I'm more intrigued by runs longer than about 7-8 yards because it means you've actually gotten into the secondary. That's one place where Johnson is pretty deficient. I'm through abut half of his games and so far nearly 50% of his runs are 3 yards or less which is pretty rough. He'll break off some nice runs where he makes guys miss, but doesn't do it nearly enough. I think he's also pretty indecisive, cutting back trying to gain more yards and ends up losing yards. His yards after contact and broken tackles are extremely weak. Right now Sankey is the lowest among backs I've finished in the 'elusive' metric, but if Johnson's numbers hold up, he'd be at the bottom of that group. He's a decent runner outside where he's averaging something like 7 YPC, but he does it pretty infrequently (35% of the time). The majority of his runs cut inside where he averages a paltry 4.0 YPC. I'm going to finish up all his games, but I don't anticipate a huge change. Guess I'll be looking for another late-round outlier. Edit: He also seems to have fumble-itis, I think I've seen 4 so far?
Yeah I have him among my undrafted targets. I think I see a little more there than you do. He's got the makings of a good power back and he also knows what it's like to have the entire offense placed on him. There's also some character off field stuff to consider. His family wanted him to get out of Miami because he fell into a bad crowd and thought O'Leary could keep him out of trouble better.
I don't think there's nothing to like by any means, but I tend to be hard in my little writeups. It's mostly because I've seen a lot of people putting them into their "underrated" lists which I think starts to make him a little overrated. I haven't run through all the tape or all the stats yet, so something could be blow me away that I haven't seen yet. One guy I'm a bit disappointed I won't get to check out is Kapri Bibbs. I know Todd had mentioned him before he even declared, but I just can't find enough Colorado State games to get a good sample size on him. Ditto with Terrance West and Jerick McKinnon. So many games up between Youtube and TenYardTorrents, but it still isn't enough to cover everyone.
Personally I would wait until 7th round and that would only be if I just didn't have any better ideas. The problem is there's a list of half a dozen tailbacks around there that you could substitute for one another easily and so there's not much reason to get bent out of shape chasing one. You're going to want to shotgun spray by taking three anyway.
I noticed Bibbs while watching a couple Colorado St games for Richburg.... and then went through YouTube stuff to try and piece things together. You might be able to watch him on Richburg's clips. What about Taliaferro? He, Bibbs, McKinnon, and Oliver were the 4 possible late round/FA values or sleepers I liked..... but with Oliver in a separate category unto himself. If you go back to Alfred Morris's tape, you see he was there all along but we all missed him. I'm close to feeling that way about Oliver. I'd be like the Raiders with safety Mike Mitchell where they take him in round 2 and everyone is like "WTF, who's this guy?". Of course I wouldn't take Oliver in the 2nd round but....
Late round gems (6th-7th-UDFA), using NFL Draft Scout's rankings as a proxy for where guys are expected to go: QB: Connor Shaw, Dustin Vaughan, Brock Jensen, Brett Smith, Tyler Russell RB: Tyler Gaffney, Branden Oliver, Zurlon Tipton, Rajion Neal, Damien Williams, Isaiah Crowell, Kapri Bibbs, Marcus Shaw, Henry Josey TE: Colt Lyerla, Gator Hoskins, Chris Coyle, A.C. Leonard, Nic Jacobs WR: Cody Hoffman, Dri Archer, L'Damian Washington, Quincy Enunwa, Alex Neutz, John Brown OT: Wesley Johnson, Seantrel Henderson, Cameron Fleming, Matt Patchan OG: Trai Turner, Zach Fulton, Russell Bodine, John Urschel OC: (none) DT: Kerry Hyder, Mike Pennel DE: Larry Webster, Aaron Lynch, Roosevelt Nix, Walker May OLB: Jonathan Newsome, Tyler Starr, Shaquil Barrett LB: Kevin Pierre-Louis, Eddie Lackey, Jack Tyler CB: Phillip Gaines, Shaquille Richardson, Andre Hal, Aaron Colvin, Carrington Byndom, Bene Benwikere S: Dontae Johnson, Nickoe Whitley Probably forgetting some guys. Included a few guys I feel kind of just lukewarm on though. Underlined some guys I feel pretty strong about.
I think you have the right guy. Tremendous build. Moves very well on that frame. That's what attracted me to him on 2012 tape. I've seen him get abused in 2013 but I have to think some of it is coachable.
It's gotta be something.... b/c while I was watching him at the combine I had to scurry through the tackle prospects to see which one of the 1st or 2nd rounders he was. So when I saw it was Fleming it drew a "hmph" from me [the higher pitched kind].
I'd say Mallett's feet have improved in his three years with the Patriots. [video=youtube;2WWmdW4xCOA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WWmdW4xCOA[/video] Wonder if a team like the Vikings would trade for him. You have five teams that need a QB pretty bad, but only three guys up at the top (Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel). Two teams have to be scrambling in the off season for an option. You've got Michael Vick probably taking up one spot. Mallett the other?
I might do a bunch of small school guys where I can only find 5-6 games. Sure they wouldn't be complete and I'm sure it wouldn't be legit enough for Roto, but the sample still might be interesting.
There's some pretty appealing stuff there. That TD throw to Boyce is pretty ridiculous in all stages ofthe play. Short crossing stuff looks good having played in New England's system behind Brady. I've always liked watching him just stand tall in the pocket and rip it. He's such a natural thrower, ball comes out of his hand so easily, just a nice ball and a great arm. I would think Bill O'Brien would really enjoy getting his hands on a rugged guy who can just straight-up throw the damn ball with such smooth mechanics and velocity. I would also think that years in the Pats organization and locker room served him well. Guess we'll see.
In my quest to find more Branden Oliver I found what looks like the channel of a small sports agency with the All-22 of Buffalo's offense against Kent State, Toledo and Western Michigan -for those interested: Toledo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXJIH0SVZHk Kent State: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDUUe7UyR28 Western Michigan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AdGsJb-tr0
Thanks. What stats are you tracking? Yards after contact? inside vs outside yards? 4+ yard runs? 2 or less yard runs? Besides stuff like that I'd love to see both pass blocking efficiency and how many additional yards he picks up from finishing runs while being tackled. He's not flashy but he turns 1 yard into 3 quite well and doesn't spend time dancing around, b/c his mentality is to get north and get his yards, taking what defenses give him rather than always looking for the big play. He's very selfless in that regard, and I love that in a back. I think he could be consistent and dependable b/c of it, and he might be one of the best pass protecting backs this draft and as such be ready to contribute on 3rd downs as a rookie. His balance and center of gravity are outstanding, and I'm not sure there's anyone else this draft who runs behind his pads better or pound-per-pound plays runs with more authority.
I chart a variety of things. On each play: LOS, Yards before contact, yards after contact, down, distance, location of run (RG, Off Tackle, etc), broken tackles, location and number of blockers, number of defenders in the box. That can be distilled into a number of stats like number of runs less than 4 yards, yards after contact per play, 3rd and short conversions. That's about as much as I can do right now and keep the charting time reasonable without somehow speeding up the process. For what it's worth, I got through Branden Oliver's first game against Ohio. The average RB gains around 2.6 yards after contact per play in my experience. Oliver gained 4.3 yards after contact against Ohio and that's capped for runs longer than 15 yards. I can't assume it'll stay that high through all the games, but it's still super impressive.
So you know I typically get a little irritated when people watch a few games and then go on to say how terrible or great a player is without a real understanding of how they play. In fact, Darren Page from Detroit Lion's Draft posted a huge QB study today (http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2014/03/2014-quarterback-passing-chart-spectacular/) and while it obviously took a lot of work - some of the QBs' sample sizes were 7 games over two seasons which will inevitably be wrong and have a huge margin of error. And nowhere in the original article did it mention that the sample size was that low for some QBs. This left me slightly vexed today. Well I totally did that exact same thing with Storm Johnson. Johnson is apparently a beast at breaking tackles and pretty good at getting yards after the contact and I jumped the gun posting last night. His overall elusive metric comes out only behind Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde and Lache Seastrunk. He also converted 89% of his third and short situations and his overall balance of inside/outside runs evened out. He still had way too many runs less than 4 yards and he didn't face a heavy defensive front as often as others, but there are more positives than I initially made there out to be. Superficially the breaking tackles and fumble problems sort of reminds me of Dennis Johnson. I'll accept my shame now.
