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Merged: Brent Grimes re-signs with Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by byroan, Mar 3, 2014.

  1. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Brandon Marshall is not amused

    Sent from my LG-MS770 using Tapatalk 4 Beta
     
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  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Below is a table of Pro Bowl appearances for corners over the last 20 years of Pro Bowl history, according to five year age groups. The youngest pro bowlers were 22 years old and the oldest was 36 years old so we have three equal age groups at 22 to 26 years old, 27 to 31 years old and 32 to 36 years old.

    22 to 26 Years Old: 47 appearances
    27 to 31 Years Old: 75 appearances
    32 to 36 Years Old: 18 appearances

    Here's the year-by-year page for those of you whom I know will try and accuse me in some immature, backhanded way of manipulating the data on purpose.

    22 Year Olds: 5
    23 Year Olds: 10
    24 Year Olds: 10
    25 Year Olds: 9
    26 Year Olds: 13
    27 Year Olds: 22
    28 Year Olds: 14
    29 Year Olds: 15
    30 Year Olds: 11
    31 Year Olds: 13
    32 Year Olds: 6
    33 Year Olds: 6
    34 Year Olds: 4
    35 Year Olds: 1
    36 Year Olds: 1

    You can clearly see the dropoff at 32 years old. What's more I find that the guys that did make it at 32-36 years old often made it on reputation rather than based on how they were actually playing. Troy Vincent is a good example, making the Pro Bowl with only a Pro Football Reference AV of 10. Champ Bailey went to the Pro Bowl with an AV of 8 and PFF rating of +8.8 at 33 years old. Both those guys had previously been pro bowl fixtures to the point where to not vote them in you almost had to come up with a good reason why they shouldn't be there as opposed to why they should.

    Darrell Green's two Pro Bowl appearances while fitting this age group also came with AVs or 9 and 10 which is very low for a pro bowler but the same thing applies. He was a living legend and unlike the previous four seasons he actually had a couple of decent seasons so he went in. I think Al Harris earned his pro bowl berth at 33 years old but not necessarily the one at 34 years old the following year when he went in along with Woodson based primarily on the reputation of the pair in Green Bay. Harris only had an AV of 6 that year and a mediocre PFF rating of +4.4.

    Personally I think the most relevant study based on the Pro Bowl data would be a collection of individual career studies on the 63 discrete pro bowlers during the period, using data such as games played and AV to get a sense for the arc of their collective careers. I would be willing to bet you would find that only a handful were able to extend the golden age of their careers into their 32nd to 34th years of age, and maybe only one or two that were able to be consistent from year to year through that age.
     
  3. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    If you like optimism, why are you doing your best to snuff it out when ever it appears.

    For all the hemming and hawing about last season we were literally in the thick of it all till the end. We beat playoff teams. We did it with a horrible oline, a horrible OC and a GM who wasn't on the same page with the coach. There is absolutely no reason to think that now those things have been fixed (or are priority to be fixed) that we won't dramatically improve next year.

    We were not a 2 win team bringing up the rear of the league as some would have us believe by their doom and gloom.
     
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  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    We can clearly see that old CBs don't make the Pro Bowl very often. Now, if you could show how Pro Bowl appearances encompass all the best players at a given position each year, then this will mean something.
     
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  5. Itsdahumidity

    Itsdahumidity X gonna take it from ya

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    Don't forget Vincent. The early knock on Troy was he didn't get many picks, but they eventually came. Unfortunately for us he was only here during his rookie contract. Covered, hit like a ton of bricks and pass defensed with the best of them. I still have the '92 season Playoff game vs SD on tape. Great game all-around for the team but especially for a rookie CB.
     
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  6. bran

    bran Senior Member

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    lamar miller was also having a good game that game but only carried the ball 17 times.
     
  7. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To be fair, that wasn't a new development going into that Jets game. That was common for most of the season.

    That said, I think that Buffalo game the week before was a very obvious precursor that a LOT of people (self included) missed going into the Jets game. Buffalo ran it down our throats. The Jets followed suit.
     
  8. Zach13

    Zach13 Season Ticket Holder

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    Good start by the new GM.
    Hopefully a sign of things to come.
     
  9. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Not sure what you are talking about in terms of selection bias. I randomly listed 7 guys off the top of my head.

    Nobody is saying most CBs have been been great to age 35+. Nor could one say that about any position. As I said, each guy is different. But the suggestion that Darell Green "didn't exactly play well" after 32 is nonsense -- he went to the Pro Bowl at ages 36 and 37 and was absolutely one of the elite CBs in the game at that time.

    I also don't understand your list of guys you claim I am "completely discarding." I'm not discarding anyone. I never claimed to have done a study of the longevity of every CB who has ever played. I listed 7 guys off the top of my had who showed excellent longevity simply to illustrate that one can't assume that a CB will lose it after 30. Moreover, your list is strange in that it includes a number of guys who were never particularly good to begin with andsome who aren't yet 30 or just turned 30.

    Obviously, neither one of us knows which category Grimes will fall into. But history does not necessarily suggest that a 4-yr deal (which may more realistically be a 3 yr deal depending on how it is structured) is necessarily a bad idea for a 30 yr. old CB who has only played 75 NFL games (59 starts) and is coming off a great year.
     
  10. Itsdahumidity

    Itsdahumidity X gonna take it from ya

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    my bad wrong thread post.
     
  11. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    I find it very strange that you are using AV for this comparison, especially for CBs. The fact is that an AV of 9-10 is not very low for a Pro Bowl CB. I think we can agree that Grimes had an excellent season last year and his AV was 10. In his previous Pro Bowl season in 2010 his AV was 11. Revis was a Pro Bowler last year with an AV of 7 (despite being PFF's top-ranked CB) and previously went to the Pro Bowl with an 11. As you indicated, numerous guys in the past have made Pro Bowls with AVs of 9-11 AV is just not a very solid measure for a CB, especially if you are using it to assess a guy's performance in a particular year.

    From your numbers, during the 4 year period of ages 31-34 (the same as Grimes' contract), there were 29 Pro Bowl appearances. While that is predictably lower than the age 27-30 period, you would see that for just about every position. Grimes has an unusually low amount of tread wear on his 30 yr old tires, having started only 59 NFL games. His play last year did not indicate that he is in decline. Could it turn out that he does decline during this contract? Of course it could. But from just the basic numbers it looks liek age has been factored into this deal -- if he was 27 it probably would have been a much bigger deal.
     
  12. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Being optimistic does not mean I totally remove reality from the equation. Do I think we are equals to the Pats? or even the Bills and Jets? I HOPE we are at least as good as the latter two. Learned my lesson last year after we beat the Pats....Remember? Dynasty over..Changing of the guard...Division is changing...Yet..Pats Division Champs again..Playing big games in the playoffs.. and we were home watching it. I am optimistic we improve our OL, our running game and our run defense. I am realistic that is alot to ask in one season..also realistic that I am not ready at this point to say we are better than any playoff team from last year. Beating playoff teams last season is a wash to me when we lost games to the Jets,Bucs,Bills(twice), especially with the playoffs on the line.
     
  13. finserg

    finserg Well-Known Member

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    ha ha I was thinking the same thing
     
  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No one is saying anything outside of reality, and that's the problem. We had some stumbles. We also beat 4 of the 6 AFC playoff teams. We faltered against 2 division teams because we had a shoddy oline & OC. We have fixed or are fixing those problems right now.

    Again, you're acting like we went 3-13. Some of us are acting like we went 8-8 and have already taken steps to improve. Which is more "realistic"?
     
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  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    DJ seems to be arguing that Brent Grimes has a genetic makeup that makes him exceptional from the standpoint of his body breaking down physically, especially due to age.

    I don't find any basis for this claim.

    First off in my experience the physically explosive players can actually sometimes have the toughest time staying healthy. They're too explosive for their own good sometimes. Their joints, tendons, etc often just can't handle it. Additionally there's a pretty long and established history of smaller players being considered at a higher injury risk because the NFL is full of big, strong players.

    But to be honest, I won't even necessarily argue a conclusion one way or another based on that. It's not enough to go on. You can't predict a guy will be especially injury prone based on this stuff and you can't predict he'll be especially injury free because of it. Which goes back to the point that I don't know how someone could try and make an aggressive argument about a guy defying injury/breakdown odds due to eyeballing his body and playing style.

    I believe you have to look at the player's injury history. And on that basis, Brent Grimes is hardly clean. In fact, he's got a more established injury history than most guys.

    2008: Missed 9 games in two separate stints (Weeks 8 thru 11, Weeks 13 thru 17). The first stint was due to a combination of knee and ankle injuries. The second stint was after re-aggravating a knee injury in Week 12. Played in 6 snaps of the Wildcard playoff game before leaving the field again.

    2009: Played all 16 games, participating in 68% of the team's snaps. Was a rotational player for the first 12 games and regained his every down status in the final 4 games of the season. Did not appear on the injury report all year.

    2010: Played in all 16 games as an every down starter with 98% participation. Began the season listed as Questionable in Week 1 (hip).

    2011: Missed 6 games in two separate stints (Weeks 13 thru 15, Week 17) with a knee injury that required mid-season surgery. First appeared on the injury report as Probable in Week 10 with a knee injury. Was Probable again in Week 11. Was downgraded to Questionable with the knee in Week 12. Aggravated the knee during Week 12, forcing him to miss Weeks 13 thru 15 while having surgery. Re-aggravated the knee in Week 16 and missed the remainder of the season including the playoffs.

    2012: Tore his Achilles tendon in Week 1, missing 17 games (Weeks 2 thru 17 plus 2 Playoff Weeks) as a result.

    2013: Played in all 16 games as an every down starter with 97% participation. Appeared on the injury report three times with three separate injuries. Was listed Probable in Week 8 with a groin injury. Was listed Probable in Week 9 with a quadriceps injury. Was listed Probable in Week 16 with a groin injury.

    There really is next to no basis for the supposition that Brent Grimes is going to demonstrate higher than average durability or age-related body breakdown. In fact one could easily conclude the opposite, based on the above.
     
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  16. Phoenician Fan

    Phoenician Fan Well-Known Member

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    Uh Oh..........
     
  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The main point I'm trying to make is I believe his body will have sustained play in it for at least two more years, which after the 2nd season,two years completed into this contract, he will be 32 years old, even if he drops off some, that level of play will still be good..

    The evidence is the level of played he showed this past year, he was 30
     
  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    that's not what I'm arguing CK, I'm arguing against a regression of athleticism and explosiveness relative to his genetic makeup and age, and like you said, it's not possible to predict his durability, however, after playing at a very hi level athletically, without injury for a whole year, what are you basing your argument on if you can't really predict injury, that he's gonna get injured because he's thirty and still explosive as ever?

    I'm talking about his movement and speed, with his genetics and fast twitch musculature, at thirty it's not going to digress as quickly as your numbers suggest imo.

    Brent grimes is a pretty rare physical specimen, that takes him out of the majority in your numbers right there, a lot of those numbers represents players that don't have the physical measurables of a Brent grimes.

    So if your building a team without looking at each case individually and taking into account certain specifics, especially these, I think it's a flawed strategy in this case.
     
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  19. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Digress is the word you're looking for?
    di·gress : to speak or write about something that is different from the main subject being discussed
     
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  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    regress..thank you sir may I have another.
     
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  21. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I like it. You get a solid player locked up, he is obviously very happy based on the smile on his face, and if his play drops off you cut him or rework the contract. I think he can be at least solid for two years and worry about year 3 when it rolls around. I am happy.
     
  22. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I like Grimes. A lot. But damn, 4 years? Hope Aponte worked in a back door on this one.
     
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  23. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I am acting like we went 8-8 last year losing to and being dominated by 2 bad teams to end the season..thats all. All teams right now are trying to fix their problems from last year, not just us. Do the Jets, Steelers and maybe even Buffalo expect to fill holes and improve? Of Course. What would your reaction be if a jet fan or a Bill fan said today,With the problems we are fixing now, we expect to go toe to toe with NE and make the playoffs next season? My first reaction would be...Really? Your reaction would be ? probably the same. My point is that we are not a 3-13 team(which I did not imply) but we are not a game away from the AFC championship either(which you did not imply either)...Being realistic is somewhere in between
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Yes. He's going to get injured because he will be 31 years old, then 32 years old, 33 years old then 34 years old, because he's also undersized, and because his career is littered with injuries even excepting the Achilles tear which is a major, major injury to take for a corner.

    Yes he absolutely stands a MUCH higher risk of not playing in games from 2014 to 2017 because of those factors. And in turn those injuries will detract from his play on the field. That is exactly the point.

    Based on what? Grimes is 5'9" and 180 lbs and ran a 4.57 with a 33.5" vertical and 10'1" broad jump. He did a 4.25 second shuttle and 7.13 second cone. You say these are physical "measurables" so...measure them. Give me some numbers and comparisons that make him such a rarity.

    So outlining in excruciating detail every injury he's taken and been listed on the injury report for over the last 6 years is not "looking at each case individually and taking into account certain specifics"?

    Yeah I'm calling poop mouth on that.

    [video=youtube;37SrQdIqKiU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37SrQdIqKiU[/video]
     
  25. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    Your body recovers from injuries and repairs itself quicker when you are younger. Is this correct?
     
  26. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    HGH and steroids help. Maybe we can get him some stem cells
     
  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Why does every thread have to become an argument about absolutely nothing?

    Grimes played great last year. We signed him for 4 more years. If he stays healthy or gets hurt, he's going to be here either way.
     
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  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Keith075....the internet. The internet.....keith075.

    Now that you two have been introduced, what were you saying?
     
  29. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    It's like he doesn't know he's on a discussion board.
     
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  30. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    So he will sonehow regress due to past injuries that happened before last season when he had possibly his best year? Right.

    If you want to say he's injury prone I can give you that much.
     
  31. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    The fact that, straight off a major Achilles injury, he played his a$$ off for 16 games. Not many guys can do that as perimeter players, especially at 30. Grimes got his body in phenomenal shape/condition after one of the worst injuries you can have as an athlete who relies on explosion. What he did last offseason was extremely impressive, and I think it's reason enough to believe in his physical makeup going forward a few years.
     
  32. RickyBobby

    RickyBobby VIP DIY

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    I dont think it's a #s thing. He's looking at his body. You would want to see results? I would say you can see it on the field, the explosiveness he's moves with. His ability to turn and move and always in position to explode is second to none in the NFL. And idk but isn't that broad jump impressive for a short guy?
     
  33. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Was just watching that movie with my kid and his bud...were at the part where jack black punts Baxter..

    I think brent grimes had a bad proday.

    So let me try and understand, your ignoring everything you've seen on tape this last year, and using a proday, some injuries sandwiched in between pro bowl seasons, and some stats on corners past 30 to decide whether you keep a Brent grimes and pay him?

    Yes, I do think that's a flawed process to take in the evaluation and coming from you I don't understand, your essentially ignoring what you can see..

    Are you telling me that Brent grimes is not an elite athlete for his size, are you saying he's not explosive, are you saying he isn't loaded with fast twitch, all of these things are plain to see and shouldn't be ignored.
     
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  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It recovers real well at 30, some people better than others.
     
  35. BayAreaFinFan

    BayAreaFinFan D'oh Club Member

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    I really like grimes and I'm glad we signed him. Hopefully there is an out at the end of that contract should we need it. One less hole to fill via draft or free agency...now let's start overhauling that line, and get some LB help.
     
  36. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Good, the man makes plays happen.

    I know the OL is a hot mess, to me though, it should not be overpaid in terms of cap numbers or draft choices, guys who make plays on the ball are needed.
     
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  37. Ludacris

    Ludacris Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I really wanted him re-signed...yeah he's older but he plays as if he is 25.
     
  38. I suspect Aponte forged Grimes names onto a new contract:shifty:
     
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  39. Ludacris

    Ludacris Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Then who's the guy in the photo signing in the boardroom? :lol:
     
  40. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Indeed, to me, he makes plays on the ball, he can shut down Wr's, you need guys like that and seasons are 16 games, his age does not matter in that sense.
     

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