Remember this guy? Ah. We were so young. So in love. [video=youtube;xFodwDIVmWU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFodwDIVmWU[/video] JUST GET HIM THE DAMN BALL!
I don't think I've ever been tempted to make a Vince Wilfork comparison before. Maybe I have but I don't recall ever making one. I don't know if this is the highest quality prospect to bring the comparison out on but DT Justin Ellis really does remind me of Vince Wilfork. [video=youtube;13E19g7PvhU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13E19g7PvhU&feature=player_embedded[/video]
I agree with all this. I think what would be great, when looking at yards after contact, would be if we can isolate specifically the yards after contact while being tackled. Maybe we also calculate the percentage of runs the back finishes with a forward lean of 1+ yards, considering each carry that doesn't in a TD or doesn't go out of bounds will result in a tackle. If a back is getting tackled 250 times in a season, how does he finish off those 250 tackles. I say this because a back could conceivably post great yards after contact numbers but not be great at finishing runs, which IMO is as or more important than yards after contact considering the back who gets 4+ yards on first down will create a more efficient offense than a back who has solid yards after contact but isn't good at finishing off runs and can't consistently turn 2 yards into 4... or 0 yards into 2... or negative yards into 0. I think this would serve to give more meaning to the stat of "runs under 4 yards" and "runs over 4 yards" b/c it delves further into the running back's actual ability separate from his Oline's performance or lack thereof. I mean, you could have a good back behind a bad Oline who shows poorly on runs over/under 4 yards while actually being great at finishing off runs. Take Branden Oliver for instance. When his O-line is facing like competition, he's a little beast, but then against the big schools you could see his Oline was outmatched and he was getting swallowed up. However, amidst his crappy yards per carry stat against those schools [like UGA below], he routinely finished off runs for an addition 1-2+ yards, never lets himself get caught in the backfield, and rarely allowed himself to get stuffed for no forward lean. Look at his first four runs. 2 yards, 2 yards, 2 yards, 2 yards through the tackle. Watch the rest of the clip. It's pretty much all the same. Plus he puts on a nice display of how NFL ready he is in pass protection against the big boys of the SEC. [video=youtube;wwS9tuIYVyA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwS9tuIYVyA[/video]
That's a hell of an idea Todd. You can call it "yards after terminal contact". The basic idea there is you're separating the yardage off broken tackles away from the yardage he gets from the forward lean as you call it. You can also go with "yards after broken contact" which would help Greg solve a little problem I have with capping his YAC on individual runs at 15 yards (just seems arbitrary to me and I also think you're losing information by doing it). Basically, YAC = YATC + YABC Wouldn't THAT be something, eh?
"Yards after terminal contact". Love it. Catchy. Great point about using it to somehow do away with capping YAC. I mean, I like the capping b/c I think it allows for a better representation of the mean, but in the same sense, a player's ability to break off game-changing longer runs shouldn't be thrown to the wayside like I know you already agree. I'm not the statistician that you or Greg are so I'll defer to you guys for devising the formula, but that certainly looks to me. I like it.
By the same token there must be some "rhyme or reason" as to why Mason runs a 5 yards per carry without an extra defender in the box while running 6.5 YPC against an extra defender. His 6.5 YPC is on par with the rest when facing one extra defender than his own blockers but he runs poorly with respect to his peers otherwise. I do not have an answer for this either but it warrants some investigation. The only thing I can think of is when Auburn is in a spread option (which is probably all the time) the defense is playing nickel or dime. When Auburn has 4 WRs and 0 TE the defense may come out in dime (3 DL and 3 LBs) so it becomes a 5 on 6 (5 offense linemen against 6 in the box). Auburn probably prefers this match up (due to size advantage as opposed to numbers advantage) to run against and hence a better YPC for Mason. When Auburn has 3 WRs and 1 in-line TE the defense may come out in nickel (4 DL and 2 LBs ). this becomes a 6 on 6 but the size advantage is lessened and hence a poorer YPC for Mason. This is my guess and I'm probably clutching at straws but it's the only explanation I can come up with so far. I'm not saying a don't like Mason as a prospect I'm just trying to analyse your data.
Maybe it has nothing to do with the extra defender per se. Maybe it has to do with Jay Prosch. Maybe the extra defender is being nullified by Prosch who is probably better at his job than most of the linebackers he faced, which could explain the variance. It could also suggest Mason isn't the same runner when he has to do it on his own compared to when he has someone leading the way. I don't know for sure if this is the case. Just throwing it out there as something that should be revisited via film.
Guy has some freaky talent. Geeze. Even on an NFL field his physical ability just pops off the screen, next-level stuff like when Percy Harvin is healthy. The KO vs GB and that toss vs CIN are crazy impressive. So fun to watch.
That will pretty much be the most common choice until we see what happens in free agency. If we sign Monroe, and a guard like Asamoah, but lose both Starks and Soliai and replace neither in free agency, then we'll begin to see a DT as our mock draft choice, for example.
For Chris, here's the YaC uncapped and capped for each RB I've studied. My thinking on capping YaC was that after 15 yards (or however many yards you want), you've pretty much done what you needed to do and that's run through contact. If Seastrunk breaks a tackle at the LOS and then runs 80 yards without being touched again, how much does that tell you? I don't know. From now on I'll include capped and uncapped in the articles. I like the idea of yards after terminal contact (so to speak). But as is with anything, you have to figure out execution. If a RB is hit at the LOS, but stumbles 4 yards without anyone touching him while stumbling, what's the YATC? Is it 4 or 0, since he's not physically being brought down to the ground?
Some of it would have to be subjective, but for the most part I'd be inclined to give him the yards during the tripping b/c a lot of good backs, especially the smaller or more compact ones, will get tripped or subject themselves to getting tripped while squirming or lunging through a tiny crease in attempt to fight for those extra yards, so in that case I'd give him the extra 4 yards. If it's a situation where there's little to no forward momentum involved but he still stumbles for 4 yards, I'd give him the 4. For instance, if the back is met behind the LOS and he gets tripped while juking the defender and still manages to stumble for 4, I'd give him it. And obviously if the added yards are a result of any extraordinary effort, I'd give him the yards. When I wouldn't have it apply would be when his natural momentum is much responsible for the extra yards like when he has a head of steam while turning the corner and gets tripped and stumbles for 4 b/c his momentum carries him. To me that's a stop rather than extra yards. I'd also count it as a stop if the added yards are a result of an unspectacular play on the back's part. There's probably an instance where the back warrants it counting as neither 4 nor 0, where maybe the play just doesn't count at all against his total. Perhaps during times where the back experiences unforeseen or incidental tripping and he falls forward a few yards just like anyone else would. IDK, just a starting point I guess.
Carlos clearly was superior to back up Jordan Hall, it is certainly arguable that the read option with Braxton went a long way too padding that 7.6 ypc...but I saw a relentless runner who hit the hole as fast as any RB has at Ohio State in my time and that includes Eddie George. I see A slightly quicker Eddie Lacy when I look at Hyde, wich obviously is a good thing.
To me that example would be 4 yards. I can imagine some harder situations to test. I've seen backs break a tackle and then essentially tackle himself by tripping over nothing. You have to make a decision whether you think the contact constituted terminal contact. If a back regains his balance from contact and goes live again, then to me that wasn't terminal contact. The more difficult decision to me would come when a back is contacted by someone, looks like he sort of broke the contact but never went live again before being hit by a second guy who brings him down. Would the terminal contact be the second guy? Or the first guy? I would say the first guy because again, if the player never looked like he went "live" again then it's still terminal contact. You can't avoid subjectivity in the statistics, no matter how hard you try. I've seen "2 yard" runs where the guy really gained 4 or 5 feet. You have to make a subjective determination on whether a quarterback got pressured on a play. There are subjective determinations about whether a catch truly belonged to a certain defensive back's coverage. A broken or missed tackle is a subjective determination and there are definitely times where you have to internally debate whether a broken tackle just happened or not. Even a "catch" can be a subjective determination officiated by zebras on the field.
I've watched a bit of Carlos Hyde's game and since the buckeye fans like 77FinFan, Fin-O and Buckeye King have endorsed him as well as looking at NUGaps data. I'm on board the Hyde bandwagon. He's a really good RB.
I feel like I'm missing something on Timmy Jernigan. Granted this is my real first look at the DT class since I'm slowly making my way through the positions. I went directly from Donald to Jernigan and maybe I'm just expecting to see Donald's ridiculous pass rush skills and that's tainted what I'm seeing for the rest of the DT class. I still have to work through some more games on Jernigan. I'll also be the first to admit that interior line play (OL and DL) are not my strong suit, so that could also be it. Edit: OK I'm starting to see more value as a quality player against the run, still not sure about pass rush.
I think there's a good chance he's available for our 2nd since no RBs will go in the first round. Btw, what do you think of Shazier?
Freeeak!!! Wow has he put up some numbers. I think he can be good in the right system. He's not going to take on blockers but he can fly to the ball, cover and blitz. He's got scary athletic ability and drive.
Shazier is so often compared to Lavonte David who went in the late 2nd. Most say David is more instinctive, but no way Shazier lasts until the same spot where David was drafted.
Watching Aaron Donald play and then watching the other DTs play...is going to make the other DTs look worthless in pass rush. I think PFF is being inundated because it's the start of free agency but if I were to take a guess I would say that the 33rd percentile of most effective pass rushing OLBs and DEs probably disrupt the quarterback 12% of pass rush downs whereas the 33rd percentile of DTs disrupt the quarterback maybe like 8% of the time. However what you'll notice through the years is there tends to be an elite class of pass rushing DTs that disrupt the quarterback about as often as some of the best DEs and OLBs out there. But the dropoff from like that 5th percentile elite class to like the 25th percentile is steep.
Agree Deej. Definitely some similarities but anyone drafting Hyde to be another Lacy will end up disappointed IMO. Not quite the same level of balance and athleticism.
Branden Oliver checked in at 5'7 208, ran a 4.6, jumped 33.5, and did 26 on the bench. An inch shorter than I would've liked but he's a rock solid 208.
Man I am so excited about our draft possibilities now that we don't have to draft an OT. Guys that are exciting to me are Ebron, Cooks, Evans, Donald. I think they will all be gone by 19 but you never know. Do we move up for a player like one of these, or if they aren't there do we trade down? Regardless, I'm excited.
If Donald fell to the teens I would have a major problem NOT trading up to get him. I would not trade up for Ebron, as Amaro would be a fine draft pick without the giving up of anything. Evans will be a top-10 pick. Cooks should be there at 19. I think if you're the Dolphins you can move down a couple spots if no one is there that you like, and then the top two safeties, Clinton-Dix and Pryor, are definitely in play.
I think Donald is special and maybe one of the only "special" players that we have a shot at so totally agree w/ taking a shot at him. I think Ebron is better than the rest of the TE's but not sure I don't favor Niklas. Rather not use a high pick on a safety. Curious if there will be a top RB there for us in the 2nd round.
He's still a very nice prospect and I wouldn't mind having him... but to expect him to become another Lacy is a hair too much. Lacy is a rare breed. He's a 205 pound back in a 230 pound body.
Where do we stand with the first pick? Kinda leaning Xavier Su'a-Filo from UCLA. I think Shazier is a wild card for that spot. Kinda fits what Hickey wants in an OLB.
Being as good as Lacy will be a tough ticket to cash, Lacy already looks like a top 5 back. But the physical traits are comparable IMO. Shazier gained 10lbs of muscle in 2 months and runs a 4.3....he will be an oft injured underachiever IMO. Wish him the best, just no way no how at Miami round 1.
I don't want to spend a first on a guard. I would rather trade up for an impact player or trade back to get another pick.
I know of guys like Zach Martin, Xavier Su'a-Filo, David Yankey, and Brandon Thomas all would be great candidates for LG, but unsure of any prospect that project well to the RG spot. Maybe one of the big's in Cyril Richardson or Gabe Jackson? or someone like Dakota Dozier, Trai Turner, or Jon Halapio?
Gabe does a nice job keeping the pocket clean. [video=youtube;ydrgJ0V1xY4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydrgJ0V1xY4[/video]
I'm tellin ya. Gabe Jackson is a huge, strong, wide body that anchors extremely well and can bury people in drive blocking. The thing you love about that is NFL teams know he can play immediately and compete. He's not Randall McDaniel or anything but there's room in a draft strategy for him unless you're pretty sure you like a guy better.
