Free Agents/ Breakout Season Candidates

Coyle gets an undeserved pass around here IMO. Switching from the 3-4 was a mistake, compounded by Ireland continuing to bring in 3-4 guys like Ellerbe and Jordan. That's the biggest reason we went from an elite run D to finishing 24th. Now were set to lose Soliai and Starks and I can pretty much guarantee we won't find upgrades over them. It seems this coaching staff is much better at complaining about the talent they have than they are are utilizing it efficiently.

 

By the way here is a free agent I feel fairly strong about at the wide receiver position.

Ryan Tannehill's favorite receiver seems to consistently be whoever is in the slot. At Texas A&M it was definitely Ryan Swope. Indisputably.

As a rookie he threw the ball to Davone Bess 20.9% of the time Bess was on the field versus 21.3% for Hartline and while you can point to that and say hey Hartline was his favorite receiver, consider the disparity in talent between the two and then take a second look.

Fast forward to 2013 and you sign Mike Wallace to a mega contract, give Hartline a big contract, and then give a little contract to Brandon Gibson to play the slot. And who was the best producing, most efficient receiver on the team during the 6 games he played? You guessed it. Not the $12 million dollar a year guy and not the $6 million dollar a year guy. The $3 million dollar a year slot guy was getting thrown the ball 21.4% of the time he was on the field, producing 1.62 yards per pass snap with 3 TDs in a little over 6 games. Hartline had about the same yards per pass snap but not the same touchdowns nor the same target percentage while all three (Wallace, Hartline, Gibson) played together. Wallace had slightly higher target percentage (21.6%) than Gibson but much lower efficiency and only 1 touchdown.

Anyway short story long, Ryan Tannehill in THIS system has shown a tendency to rely on the slot receiver. It can make bargain basement guys look surprisingly good. What I want to see though, is what happens when you put a GENUINELY GOOD player in that position. Get me a Victor Cruz or Randall Cobb, or Wes Welker in his prime. Then let's see what happens.

Mind you I don't know if this guy is that caliber. But I can say that I'm pretty intrigued by his talent. He's got 4.3 speed and gets a ridiculous number of yards after the catch, causes missed tackles, and he does not drop the football. He does not fit the mold of the bigger target that Philbin likes to utilize from the slot...however what he does bring to the table might outweigh that in the same way that Tavon Austin might have, given the rumor that they were hot on Austin.

Keep in mind this is an NFL video and these are NFL players that this guy is dusting.

[video=youtube;oRDITvTqSHE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRDITvTqSHE[/video]

 

i could not agree more with that last sentence.

 

The Dolphins chasing D'Qwell Jackson despite his price tag has me seriously considering going after Brandon Spikes, who would fit the Mikes position in this defense like a glove IMO.

 

He'd certainly be a huge upgrade against the run. I just wonder what kind of shape his knee is in.

 

Not that it would bother me, just curious if there is anything to this rumor I heard...a friend of mine, generally pretty knowledgeable said he heard sometime in the past couple of years that Spikes appeared in a porno movie. Seriously. Anyone else ever heard of that?

Regardless of his rumored acting career or not, I would be pretty happy with getting him to play Mike. I think the one main reason the Pats got by with such a patchwork DL last year was having Spikes behind them to blow up the running plays.

 

What about LB michael wilhoite from san Francisco. Is he a fa?

 

I think "sex tape" would be a more accurate label than "porno". Yes a sex tape of him did surface. I've never seen it though. I don't consider it a big deal.

We had trouble stopping the run. This guy has had +11.6, +17.5, +6.2 (partial season) and +12.3 PFF ratings in run defense in the four years he's played with the Patriots.

And despite his 4.9 speed, his pass coverage grades have never been significantly negative. The Patriots protect him a bit in pass coverage but based on what I saw in 2013 I think Miami would as well.

 

Little skeptical of Spikes horrid coverage stats. Agree wholeheartedly on Jmarcus Webb at RT.

 

What are the "horrid" coverage stats?

I'm looking on PFF and his coverage ratings are always only marginally negative. His coverage statistics are actually quite good. This year he ranked #7 out of 51 in snaps per reception allowed, and #14 out of 51 in yards per coverage snap.

 

Don't have a membership, read somewhere he is such a liability in coverage that it will prevent him from getting top dollar. Can't confirm just what I read, pretty sure it was PFF.

 

PFF:
3. Brandon Spikes

2013 Grade: +9.8
2013 Snaps: 694

In many ways Spikes is the most appealing option in this crop. His main advantage is youth, having played just four seasons, but he is not without baggage. The former second-round pick ended up on Injured Reserve and it remains to be seen whether he’ll need offseason surgery. There are concerns on the field as well, where Spikes struggles when forced to go backward. Despite finishing sixth overall among inside linebackers, he recorded a -3.6 grade in coverage and an 84.0 QB rating allowed.

Spikes’ strength and physicality serves him well when taking on blocks but he is sub-standard in space giving opposing offenses a chance to create mismatches in the passing game. That grade was amassed playing predominantly on running downs and it would seem unwise to expect his performance in coverage to suddenly improve. For that reason Spikes’ value seems to be as a two-down backer only. He’s a very good one at that, recording easily the best run defense grade (+11.6) among all inside linebackers. Four missed tackles in 73 attempted with 48 stops is a very good return.

Spikes has also shown some ability as a pass rusher in the past too. In 2012 he finished with a sack, seven hits and six hurries (+5.2). There is certainly value to be had in a run defending middle linebacker but with an increasing emphasis on ability to defend in space Spikes might find his value decreasing as the year’s go on. One intriguing possibility could be to use him as the strongside linebacker in base and then shift him to defensive end in the nickel. So far so good as a pass rusher but adapting to beating a tackle one-on-one off the edge is quite a different story.

 

The Evan Silva piece I read called him a 2 down role player with knee issues, I can't confirm ofcourse but having a MLB in coverage against the Patriots that Bill knows inside and out and can/will exploit his weaknesses.

Not against the signing, just some food for thought.

 

On top of the Evan Silva comment I found this little tidbit on PFF.

Brandon Spikes, Linebacker - If we was even remotely more useful/ useable in coverage he’d be much higher. A tremendously instinctive defender of the run who can shoot a gap better than any player in the league. However, he’s a base player in a league using more and more three receiver sets.


So there you have it, 2 different reputable sites with a similar position on Spikes coverage ability. I knew I wasn't crazy.

 

Didn't say you were crazy, you specifically said his coverage statistics were horrid. I know his coverage statistics and they're not really horrid so I was wondering which statistics you were referring to.

If you meant his coverage ABILITY is horrid then the statement would have made more sense.

 

No, I thought I was going crazy because I had planned on targeting him in the GML. Reading those comments shunned me away from spending big $ on him.

 

He's got 4.9 speed and ever since he dropped that terrible 40 time he's had a reputation as a guy you never want to use in coverage.

But I think the hyperbole has gotten away from itself a little bit.

Silva referring to him a "role player" is a bit unfair considering he generally plays about 65-70% of the defense's snaps. That's as much of a "role player" as Jared Odrick or Randy Starks.

Saying he's not even "remotely" useful against the pass is also a big stretch. The guy has played 922 coverage snaps the last three seasons and produced 7 passes defensed and 2 interceptions on 113 balls thrown in his direction. He's allowed 848 yards and 4 TDs. I'm not trying to say these are great long term statistics but they're not awful either.

You just have to be a little careful what you're doing with him. But that can be said about every player. Hey they gave Phil Wheeler like $5.5 million a year and Dannell Ellerbe $7 million a year. I'd like to see what the market is on Spikes but I'm not going to object to giving him something comparable considering he's a better football player.

 

I can say conclusively based on film study that I would rather the Dolphins not even bother with Branden Albert.

They need to make a hard run at Anthony Collins or Eugene Monroe. I'd love to have a better idea on the price differential between the two. If Collins could get $7 million to Monroe's $10 million, this makes for a hard decision but I would lean toward Collins.

I am also very convinced the Dolphins need to make a hard run at FS Stevie Brown.

Similarly, they need to make a GOOD offer to RFA WR Andrew Hawkins who has only been tendered at the "original round" level which means ZERO compensation if the Bengals do not match. He was undrafted.

I also have a strong evaluation on Donald Brown, though to be honest I think the Dolphins will prefer to draft that position.

 

That was exactly my stance on Collins, if he can be had for less money it's definitely a nice consolation prize. That may allow you too sign a Roger Saffold who is versatile and can play solid just about anywhere on the OL. Collins, Zach Martin(the consensus) Pounce, Saffold, Mckinnie would be a unit I would have some confidence in.

As much as I love Hawkins I have a feeling the Bengals would match most offers, but he is the ideal slot guy we need..he has just been smothered by the poor accuracy of Andy Dalton. Andre Roberts could be a sneaky good signing for that role aswell.

I would like to see Miami bring in Andre Brown to platoon with Miller, he doesn't have the durability to be an every down back but he is a passionate runner and he doesn't "cheat" the play be hesitating and being indecisive. A fantastic pass blocker aswell. Unless of course we decide to go RB early in the draft, in wich case seeing Carlos Hyde fall to Miami in the second would be a dream come true.

As far as Byrd goes he will cost more than I think we should pay, but I've liked him since he came out of Oregon...has a knack for making the big play, game changing big play's. I'd defer to a solid guy and spend that money elsewhere.

 

When Hickey was in Tampa, they didn't seem averse to going after the big ticket free agents, such as 2 yrs ago when they signed Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson. I wonder if that is a clue as to how he'll operate in Miami. Granted, he didn't have final say in TB, though it would seem logical that Dominik would have welcomed his input.

Monroe, Byrd, and Spikes....

Hmmm.

 

That would take away a quick 30M!!! Can't say I wouldn't be excited though.

I think with this FA crop of OL we can turn that glaring hole into a strength on paper very quick.

 

Imo, it'd be a serious waste of resources for us to make Byrd the highest paid safety in the league.

The fact that he's already got plantar fasciitis in both feet should be a huge red flag for anyone.

 

My free agency route as far as OL would be to sign a LT and one guard in free agency and then draft another guard early. I would resign clabo for a cheap one year deal as well as the RT as he had a great second half. Then hope Dallas Thomas pans out at guard.

 

The more I think about it, Saffold becomes a high priority in my eyes. We are likely going to attempt to pay a LT a big contract, after that I feel like we can add some solid OL. I just feel like having Saffold's versatility and ability would make life easier.

 

Me too. I hope we can get Monroe on the 1st day, like we did Wallace last year. Add in Geoff Schwartz to fill one guard, and maybe a middle tier guard like Shelley Smith, and things would be looking much better.

 

Schwartz is going to get PAID, Smith would be a very good signing. Kind of my point of quantity, with an Anthony Collins you can add the Shelley Smith, Jmarcus Webb type guys and still have some cap to pursue a good DT like Joseph or maybe even a Hatcher.