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What would you give up for Evan Mathis? Mathis on the block.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Vinny Fins, Mar 26, 2014.

  1. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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  2. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Currently, he is one of the highest paid guards in the league and he wants more money? Maybe something more to that story.
     
  3. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    He's 33. I understand he wants one more big contract, but no way would I give up draft picks and sign a 33 year old guard to a big money contract.
     
  4. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This would be the kind of trade a team would make if they were going all in for the Super Bowl. For our team you're looking at a 2-year rental at a high cap hit that will also cost picks, and possibly at the expense of getting real playing time for prospective guards already on the roster. We haven't even made the playoffs yet, and I don't really see the cost of signing Evan Mathis translating into a Super Bowl appearance for our team specifically.
     
  5. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    He's very good, but already near the end of his career, and too expensive. Sounds like he wants one more money grab before he's out of the league. No thanks, I'd much rather sign a less expensive vet for the short term and draft a long term solution.
     
  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Giving up any pick for a 33 year old player makes no sense unless its an emergency during the season.
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Nothing. Too expensive.
     
  8. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    His DOB is Nov 1, 1981, so he won't be 33 until November. He is currently under a pretty big contract. 3 years remaining on it.
     
  9. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Guards have often played at a high level until their mid 30s. He's Baumhower's nephew. He should of been a career Dolphin from the get go. It would not be unlikely to get 3 good seasons out of him.
     
    DPlus47 likes this.
  10. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    the next dimension
    I'm still hoping the dolphins somehow get some good karma coming back from the Eagles after handing them Mathis and of course getting fleeced for Feeley.
     
  11. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    If he was willing to play for the same type of contract that he's playing for now, then I could be convinced to pay for 32 year old guard for a couple of years to protect Tannehill. But given that he obviously wants a BIG payday, I have zero interest.
     
  12. Phoenician Fan

    Phoenician Fan Well-Known Member

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    Apparently, perhaps, Mike Wallace??
     
  13. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Since he is under contract, if he does get traded, he really doesn't have a choice other than hold out. He just signed it two years ago.
     
  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    It reads like his contract demands may be the only reasons the Eagles would trade him in the first place.
     
  15. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Update:

    We had his backup for a while too. Allen Barbre.
     
  16. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    with a reasonable contract & 7th round pick, I'd go for it. anything beyond that would be compromising. already went down that road with McKinnie. how'd that workout for us? this is not the year to give up high draft picks.
     
  17. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I don't see the situations as similar. Mathis is still playing at an All Pro level and is physically sound. McKinnie was breaking down, and his play had declined markedly from his peak years. We needed to give up a 2015 7th round pick for a half year stop gap. There is no way that Mathis isn't worth more and his current contract is quite reasonable given his performance. I'd definitely pay a 4th for him.
     
  18. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    I'd pay the 4th for him, assuming he's fully healthy. He's very good and is a very good fit in a zone blocking scheme. He has been PFF's top graded guard for 3 straight years by a wide margin (in some years twice as high as the next best) and his run blocking grades have been the best by a wide margin (again, twice as good as the next best last year). There is no indication that his career is on the downslope.
     
  19. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Diminishing returns. Doesn't make sense just looking at his play. He made approximately $85,000 in base salary per point using his PFF grade in 2013. Travelle Wharton made approximately $41,000 for each point he earned in his PFF grade. Wharton is the more cost effective option here. I'm of the opinion that outside of certain positions, after a point, diminishing returns start to kick in. On the offensive line, a 5 man unit, diminishing returns are important. Looking at the effectiveness of the line as a whole makes sense. When you look player by player, it's less effective because of how the offensive line works.

    A +20 differential makes a huge difference because of the correlation between QB play and win probability. That was evident this season where Manning outdid Rivers by approximately 20 points and they won 4 more regular season games/made the Super Bowl. Of course the Seahawks were able to stop him because holy hell that defense. I think the differential is also important between lead receivers and starting running backs. The Eagles won 2 more games than us. I don't think Evan Mathis was the explicit cause of that. Their O-Line as a whole definitely was one of the more important reasons, but if you swap out Mathis for Wharton, you probably still win 10 games.

    Evan Mathis most likely is to the point where his marginal cost outweighs his marginal return and his base salary will only increase from here. Now before someone makes a comparison of a player with a rating of 0 and one with +20, I did note that I meant the difference becomes muted to a point. Wharton was already +20.5 and I'm confident based on what I know about these concepts, Mathis didn't have +20 more effect on the team winning potential than Wharton.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Instant starter, instantly one of the best guards in the game, even if it's just for one year it's worth something.

    To me a 4th rounder is almost a no-brainer.
     
  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Let me put it this way with respect to Travelle Wharton versus Evan Mathis.

    If both were available as free agents then Mathis would have been signed immediately, perhaps the day free agency opened, whereas Wharton is still available. This despite them both being nearly the same age.

    That is not a coincidence.

    You can talk about Travelle Wharton's +17.3 PFF grade this year and that's fine, but if you're going to open up that door then not only are you forced to acknowledge Evan Mathis +49.0 PFF grade, but you are forced to accept the acknowledgement that Evan Mathis also had a +51.3 in 2012, a +40.0 in 2011, and a +7.0 in five games of 2010. Whereas Travelle Wharton had his +17.3 in 2013 but didn't play a single snap of 2012, had only a +3.3 in 2011, and a -5.3 in 2010.

    This makes focusing on the +17.3 versus +49.0 in 2013, to the point where you're dividing them by salary denominators, look a bit two-dimensional. Evan Mathis has been a consistent player.

    Travelle Wharton has averaged only a +6.1 grade per 1000 snaps over the time period. He'll be 33 years old and two years removed from an injury that saw him miss every snap of a season. Evan Mathis averaged a +42.3 grade per 1000 snaps over the time period, will also be 33 years old and has missed only 1 game in the last 3 seasons.

    So first off if you adjust the grades that way and hypothesizes that Travelle Wharton would make only $1 million with Miami (a good assumption, IMO) then that makes Evan Mathis' per point dollar figure cheaper than Wharton's. Even if you assume the exact same salary as 2013 then it makes them about equivalent.

    But there's a confidence factor you're not accounting for with a simple snapshot evaluation of a PFF grade divided by a salary. You can be reasonably confident that Evan Mathis will repeat what he did in 2013 because he did it in 2012, did it in 2011, did it in limited time in 2010 and heck he even performed at nearly the exact same rate in 2009.

    Can you say the same about Travelle Wharton? I don't think so.

    Basically Evan Mathis is Mr. Pro Football Focus. If you're going to base any arguments on Pro Football Focus at all they're going to favor Evan Mathis.
     
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  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Listen man, there have been a lot of big moves by the best teams this past offseason, if we wanna even be taken seriously than a move like this should be left in the hands of the coach who is now our offensive coordinator, if Lazor watching this dude up close and personal thinks he's great and healthy, then make the move, it then really allows us to attack the draft with players who command respect with their talent.
     
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  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just puttin this out there because were talking about his age, but Evan Mathis is an absolute freak in the gym, completely dedicated to his body, very low body fat, to the point where it makes me suspicious.
     
  24. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    The grades I spotted for both were +20.5 and +46.7. I'm not sure where the discrepancy comes in. I understand the confidence factor that I'm ignoring, but that was somewhat intentional. I think what you're ignoring (possibly intentionally as well) is the fact that the Dolphins WANT to go young at the guard position. That's the reason they've stated as to why they're hesitant to sign Wharton and that was before Mathis was on the block. I think there are some solid young and cheap options available, notably Joe Bitonio out of Nevada. What that also ignores, and what I also forgot to mention, is the fact that Mathis wants more money. He's due $6 million in base salary in 2014 and conceivably wants ~$8 million. We're already paying out of the *** for Albert and will have to pay Mike Pouncey big money after 2014. I don't think we're going to be able to pay Mathis for a couple years, Albert for 5 years, and then Pouncey for 5 years too.

    EDIT: My implicit assumption is that a Wharton deal would max out at 2 years. I think this is reasonable because of his age and injury concern. Wharton here for 2 years would either give us a presumptive starter, or a cheap veteran backup if a young guy steps up and over him.
     
  25. Oghma

    Oghma Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If it's a 4th rounder then it's a no brainer for me. Instantly fills a position of need. One less question mark at a suspicious position group.

    The fact that I don't even have to think about it for a 4th rounder suggests to me that the real price will be higher than that.

    Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Playoffs. Evan Mathis had a +2.3 in his playoff game and Travelle Wharton a -3.2.

    It's not that I'm ignoring it, it's that I don't see how it's relevant to a conversation about whether Evan Mathis is more attractive a player than Travelle Wharton. I'm just trying to compare the two.

    Everyone wants more money. I want more money. Does he have the leverage to ask for more money? Not really. He'll be 33 years old, on a brand new football team, with 3 years remaining under contract. He has no leverage and at 33 years old he can hardly afford to hold out during the precious few years he has remaining. Also his salaries are as follows:

    2014: $5.15 mil
    2015: $5.50 mil
    2016: $6.00 mil

    There are incentives attached to those years but it's unclear how much and what would unlock them. But the above is all that Miami would be on the hook for with Evan Mathis.
     
  27. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Fair enough.

    We're talking about attractiveness to a specific team here. Miami wants a guy who's young but they clearly have interest in a veteran presence. Assuming the youth component of their interest in Guards is important, then of course it's relevant to this discussion of Mathis vs. Wharton simply because they're not looking to fund a veteran for 4+ years. As for their consistency, the fact that Miami is looking for a young guy (draft) to bring in, NFL consistency can't be that much of a priority.

    I misread the salary information. I was accidentally reading the column that added in the proration of his signing bonus and referenced his cap hit instead of his base salary. As for leverage, I understand and can agree with your logic to an extent, but unless the Eagles are very confident in their backups, they wouldn't be attempting a trade if it was that simple. They could easily just tell him it isn't happening and he'd have to play. If the Eagles are confident in their backups, that brings about more fuzziness in the valuation of offensive guards. Evan Mathis is far and away considered the best OG in football. But here you have to Eagles willing to sacrifice his play level for either a backup or a rookie. It makes me think they share my ideas on the marginal returns of guards up to a certain point.

    What would be interesting is if they traded him away, then signed Wharton.
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    First off I think you have to clear the lines a little bit here because there might be a little bit of criss-crossing. Is this about what YOU want? Or is this about what THEY want? Are we merely determining what they're likely to do or are are trying to determine what we feel best? I'm having trouble finding any interest in a conversation that starts with "given that they want to go young..." or whatever. Is Evan Mathis a more attractive acquisition target than Travelle Wharton? Absolutely, in my mind absolutely yes. Do I particularly care if the Dolphins agree or disagree? Absolutely not.

    I think you're under the impression that the Eagles are trading Evan Mathis because Rosenhaus probed them on how they're feeling about another contract extension. I think that's probably a bad assumption.

    If I had to guess I'd say the Eagles are looking to trade him because he's reached peak performance yet will be 33 years old. They think they can get a good price for him and have already said that if they can't get a good price they'll keep him. That doesn't sound like a team that feels like it HAS to trade him because of his contract demands. It sounds like a team that's trying to trade off a veteran and get something of value for him before he starts to drop off.
     
  29. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    I'll try to clear this up: Irrespective of what the Dolphins have said, I personally would want Travelle Wharton if my assumption about his salary demands are true. I'm conflicted by my approach to cost effective acquisitions, but if Travelle Wharton weren't on the market, then Mathis is my choice hands down. Ultimately, I'd take Wharton over Mathis because of salary concerns if I were GM. Super ultimately, I'd draft the replacement and not even acquire a veteran unless TC suck forces me to. IF Wharton wants something like $3 million+ yearly, then Mathis easily becomes the best man for the job.

    A fair guess, but that's what we're doing. We're guessing motivations and money. I don't think there's a reasonable way of assessing whose logic is more sound here.
     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Fair enough. This is what I thought you believed when I initially read your post. All I was trying to point out were some nitpicks with your argument with respect to taking a look at recent past performance in order to develop some confidence that there's a good basis for relying so heavily +17.3 versus +49.0 PFF grades. I think even if you're doing this PFF point per dollar construct, Mathis comes out on top.

    I think there is and that's just with the use of logic. Logically speaking the only leverage Mathis has is the risk of a holdout. At 33 years old with precious few years remaining in his career, that seems unlikely. So why would the Eagles feel forced to trade him? We don't know that they feel forced to trade him at all, just that they want to. They could want to for any number of reasons.
     
  31. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    And we're just in disagreement on what we think the actual reason is. You think they want to gain something from a guy who they can't conceivably expect more from while he's still at his apex (which has lasted for a damn long period of time). Sure, there's precedent (e.g. Richard Seymour --> Raiders) for your idea. I think I should also clarify that I don't necessarily think they want to trade him because they don't want to pay him more, I think they want to trade him because they don't want the backlash from Mathis when they tell him they're not going to pay him more.
     
  32. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd love Mathis on the team, but I don't know that you can expect him to perform past say, 35. I'd be way more comfortable paying him Evans/Nicks/Mankins money for two years than I would extending him for multiple years at the end of the deal.

    It's possible he is Brian Waters good, and like DJ said he's really impressive physically, but I don't think it's a great gamble.
     
  33. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    I'd give a 4th rounder. I look at it this way. I would hope a 4th rounder can play for about 3 or 4 years. I know Mathis can play AT A PRO-BOWL LEVEL for the same 3 or 4 years. I don't know if I go higher than a 4th rounder because I expect a 1,2,3 rounder to play many more years.
     
  34. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    a 4th rounder is a nothing to give up for a probowl starter, nothing. A 4th round pick is more than likely a career backup or a marginal player, sometimes you get lucky but lets not act like a 4th rounder is earth shattering. If we can fit him under the cap on a 4 year deal that he's happy with I'd give up the 4th rounder without batting an eye. He would be a huge addition to our team and give our line a huge upgrade. Honestly the talk about not wanting him or that a 4th rounder is too much is just silly.
     

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