2014 NFL Schedule Release Thread - Leaks, Speculation, Discussion (Release Wednesday)

2014 NFL Schedule Release Thread - Leaks, Discussions, Etc (Update: Pats/Phins Wk 1?)

Since a thread hasn't been created, and the schedule release is tomorrow, I thought I would go ahead and create a place to discuss the leaks before the release and the actual schedule after the release. We should start seeing leaks sometime tomorrow afternoon (we already have that the Bills will play @Detroit on Thanksgiving and will play Green Bay on MNF).

Here is what we know for sure . . .
Miami will play a "road" game against Oakland in London in week 4. Our bye week will be week 5.

The following is speculation. I went back and logged every game against non division opponents since 1988 to see when Miami played them. Below are the results, including some interesting overall stats for our NFC North opponents.

Kansas City – 9, 16, 10, 7, 4, 5, 15, 15, 8, 6
San Diego – 11, 4, 3, 4, 14, 8, 13, 9, 16
@Oakland (wk 5) – 2, 13, 12,
@Denver – 7, 8, 1, 15, 6, 2, 14, 4
Green Bay – 6, 7, 9, 7, 3, 2, 3 (only played after Oct. 2x in all years)
@Chicago – 11, 9, 13, 8, 10, 14, (only played before Nov. 2x in all years)
@Detroit – 16, 13, 1, 9, 15, 17, 2
Minnesota – 2, 12, 16, 2, 4, 5 (2 of 13 games not in Sept/Dec in all years)
Baltimore – 5, 9, 6, 15, 17, 11, 11, 3, 7
@Jacksonville – 15, 15, 14, 6, 7

While none of this will factor into the scheduling matrix, it is always fun to me to see the (assumed) accidental trends through the years. Also as usual, here is my mock schedule. I'm not overly happy with it, but it does follow all of the NFL scheduling principles.

Week 1 – @Jacksonville (CBS 1:00 PM)
Week 2 – Buffalo (CBS 1:00 PM)
Week 3 – Minnesota (FOX 4:05 PM)
Week 4 – @Oakland (London CBS 1:00 PM)
Week 5 - BYE
Week 6 – @New York (CBS 1:00 PM)
Week 7 – Green Bay (CBS 8:20 PM)
Week 8 – @Denver (CBS 4:25 PM)
Week 9 – @New England (CBS 1:00 PM)
Week 10 – Baltimore (CBS 1:00 PM)
Week 11 – San Diego (CBS 4:05 PM)
Week 12 – @Chicago (ESPN 8:20 PM)
Week 13 – New York (CBS 1:00 PM)
Week 14 – New England (CBS 4:25 PM)
Week 15 – @Detroit (CBS 1:00 PM)
Week 16 – Kansas City (NFLN Saturday Doubleheader TBD)
Week 17 - @Buffalo (CBS 1:00 PM)

That's two primetime games (one ESPN MNF, the other getting our mandatory Thursday date on the CBS side, not the NFLN), and one of the NFLN Saturday doubleheader slots (the way I see it, with it being so close to Christmas, using Miami/KC would give them an excuse to milk the longest game ever played from our playoff game back in the day).

If you want to take a shot at a mock, go ahead. I will be back throughout the day tomorrow with what I hear about the schedule as a whole as we try to piece together what's going on with Miami.

 

That's certainly been the case of the past couple of years. Technically, the only mandate must for the NFL is division in week 17 with the hope to schedule more division games in the last four weeks. Every year we see a team or two that plays weeks 15 and 16 versus a non-division foe, thus why I shunted the Jets and Patriots to 13 and 14. I will say this, I don't envy the actual schedule makers, it is tough sledding to do one with one team and get all the scheduling principles right, I can't imagine everybody.

I think there is a real chance you are absolutely right, Deerless. I will say this though, the no 1pm games was a Ross request, not an NFL thing. They've done their best to fulfill the request. It is especially challenging this year. Let me explain. With a road game already in week 4 in London, Miami is promised week 3 at home. This leaves us with what to do with the first two weeks. Since CBS has the US Open Finals (last year for that I believe), there are no late afternoon games on CBS for week 1. That means Miami as a couple of options. They could play at home at 1pm, play at home in a night game, play Green Bay or Minnesota at home in a 4:25 game on FOX. This is getting complicated, but my thing when mocking a schedule is to look at the whole picture and choose what is the easiest outcome for the whole. At the end of the day, I will be wrong though!

 

Although I wouldn't quite call it a leak, more of a rumor, but given how quiet it's been so far, I will share it.

RUMOR: Redskins/Giants early MNF DH week 1, Redskins/Colts on MNF at some point, Eagles @ Redskins and Cowboys @ Giants week 17 (which would mean the Jets would be on the road against Buffalo, Miami, or New England).
Likelihood of Validity: 50% It seems like it would fit, but the source is less than great.

Edit: It appears this will indeed false.

 

According to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee, the Niners think they will play on Thanksgiving this year. They do play in Dallas this year, so it could be that game. Or it could be in the late NBC slot.

Also, it is unsourced, but it looks like the Bills @ Bears in week 1.

EDIT: Also, in a move that's been expected in the TV world, FLEX scheduling will now be possible in weeks 5-10 for SNF. The catch is the NFL can only do this twice in that period (weeks 11-17 remain completely open, minus network protected games).

EDIT2: The NFL has also officially announced the cross-flex mechanic. Again, been known for a while, but it means that an all AFC game can be flexed to FOX and an all NFC game can be flexed to CBS. To be used in situations where for example you have DEN/SD in a 4:05 SH on CBS, and GB/MIN in the 4:25 DH on FOX. Now, those can be switched if the all AFC game is more compelling, giving a broader audience. If that makes any sense.

 

It will be Dallas vs. Seattle in the season opener. CONFIRMED by Norm Hitzges

WFAN is reporting it will be the Giants @ Lions as part of the early week 1 Doubleheader on ESPN.

 

Apparently this is the Giants schedule, it was accidentally posted and then taken down real quick.

at Detroit MNF
Arizona
Houston
at Washington tnf
Atlanta
at Philadelphia snf
at Dalas
bye
Indy mnf
at Seattle
San Francisco
Dallas snf
at Jacksonville
at Tennessee
Washington
at Saint Louis
Philadelphia

 

This could be our first Dolphins leak! Tom Curran of Comcast Sports says from what he's hearing, the for forecast for the Patriots opener is going to be hot. Looking at the Patriots opponents, that could only mean Miami or San Diego (and it can't be San Diego because CBS doesn't have a late game and San Diego can't have a 10am local start at home).

So if Curran is right, and he's about as legitimate as it goes, it looks like New England @ Miami in week 1. This is NOT confirmed, though.

Also, Indianapolis @ Denver for the week 1 SNF.

Chicago @ San Francisco for the week 2 SNF.

Indianapolis has 5 total games in primetime. 2 of them are on MNF, that means they will have 2 SNF games (one already known to be @Denver) and the obligatory TNF game).

 

1. New York TV market
2. NFC East matchups draw ratings, so the NFL favors them in primetime games
3. Eli Manning is still a name

 

Latest leaks put the Niners in Dallas to open the season in the 4:25 game on FOX. This is from Pat Mayo of ABC. He also says SEA @ SF will be the Thanksgiving night game on NBC. What does this mean for the Seattle opener? That basically means it has to be Green Bay @ Seattle for the opener.

Harry Teinowitz from sports radio in Chicago is claiming that we get Cowboys@Bears week 14 on NFLN and Saints@Bears on MNF week 15. I find this a little hard to believe because that is a marquee game on NFLN and those were supposed to all be on CBS and it would give the Cowboys THREE straight national TV games (SNF v Giants, Thanksgiving, @Chicago) and two straight on Thursday. IF this is true, that means Miami will not play in Chicago weeks 13-17 (no three straight home games, and week 17 is just for division games).

EDIT: Okay, things are getting crazy now. Both major papers of the teams reporting it is the Bears@Lions on Thanksgiving. This is really strange. It means one of two things is happening. Either CBS is getting a 2 NFC team game on the schedule or they are jacking with the rotation and Dallas will be back on CBS this year. Exciting times.

 

Week 10 - Miami @ Detroit per Detroit Free Press.

This is off the Lions Bye week.

 

Not true, I pressed Driscol on it and be backed off of it.

They may play that weekend, but it looks like Seahawks/Niners that night.