1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Football Outsiders predicts 7-9 for Miami

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by LBsFinest, May 17, 2014.

  1. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

    2,476
    1,128
    113
    Mar 21, 2013
    7 or 8 wins is a reasonable projection.

    Truth is we have questions at Head Coach and Quarterback...and that's going to lead to similar win predictions year to year.

    The other problem, what makes us 'fragile' as Triggercut says, is that we don't have much starpower at impact positions. The only guy who's a top-5 or top-10 player at a significant position is Wake. We just don't have that many game-changing players on this roster. If Jordan can become that, we'll win more games. But as it stands right now we're really low on guys who opposing teams have to plan around.
     
  2. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

    1,385
    560
    113
    Oct 11, 2013
    Seahawk fans would disagree.
     
  3. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,215
    1,896
    113
    Mar 10, 2013
    Buckeye Land
  4. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

    5,185
    2,907
    113
    Sep 22, 2009
    delaware
    Haha.He has a valid point.I am hoping for the best but expecting the worst.
     
  5. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

    1,385
    560
    113
    Oct 11, 2013
    If I had a way to I would snap take the over on 7, no way this team doesn't win at least 7. I'm expecting at least 6 wins just at SunLife.
     
  6. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    31,608
    55,634
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Pretty much the only thing that is going to bail this team out is potentially Tannehill and Lazor, and I'm not really sure how I feel about an offensive coordinator propping up a bad coaching staff.

    A team that performs almost exactly the same it has for years before he inherited it? Philbin is pretty much a 7-9 coach, down to his toes pretty much.
     
  7. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

    2,476
    1,128
    113
    Mar 21, 2013
    This is spot-on. Unless you have Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers...teams that go deep in the playoffs check off three boxes: Head Coach, QB, and stars at impact positions. We currently have, like, none of those checked. We have just one star, Wake, who's among the best in the NFL at his key spot.

    Look at Seattle. They have the best CB in the game, best FS, top SS, top slot man, and top RB. Frisco has two of the best LBs, top edge rusher, top TE, top RB. Indy's roster overall is pretty awful, full of holes, and does not look playoff-ready...but they have the QB, a top edge rusher, a top CB, and a top WR (the offense came undone when Wayne went down).

    Elite franchise players make up for weekly and yearly inconsistencies/injuries in other areas of your roster. Like when Seattle's OLine ended up being terrible this year...it didn't matter because of all these high-level guys they have elsewhere. Same goes for Frisco's mediocre WRs and CBs. Stud players solidify your roster and identity for years, making big plays every week to cover up other deficiencies. Notice how our defense has been consistently pretty good during Wake's career even though lots of other pieces change year to year. But he's only one guy, and he's aging.

    Overall, this is why it always feels like EVERY unit on our team has to be solid, like we can't have any holes at any position. It's why our margin for error is always so damn small. We don't have enough consistent splash players to make up for the units that are weak. This is why I didn't like the James pick at 19...I hate passing on opportunities to add high-impact players who can become elite. It's also why I think Dion Jordan's development/usage is the biggest question for this season.
     
    DPlus47 and 13Machine8385 like this.
  8. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

    1,385
    560
    113
    Oct 11, 2013
    Yet the 7-9 coach finished 8-8. With a god awful GM. With a mediocre QB. With a mediocre offensive coordinator. I would think a 7-9 coach would actually finish worse than 7-9 with all of those other things going against him, but I guess thats just me.
     
    ElNino likes this.
  9. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008


    So you're a Tony Sparano fan I take it.

    Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
     
  10. 13Machine8385

    13Machine8385 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    311
    159
    43
    Mar 2, 2014
    Well said. This absolutely applies to not only the history of our team but the model for success throughout the league.
     
  11. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

    1,385
    560
    113
    Oct 11, 2013
    And you would have fired Pete Carroll in 2012 I take it...

    For the record I hated Sparano and was probably one of the first demanding his head, so maybe I'm just a more evolved head coach evaluator than the average fan.
     
  12. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    3,893
    3,087
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    Personally speaking, I feel like we've been in a perputual state of 7-9ish. I would rather see 1-15 or 11-5+ than any combination of 6-10, 7-9, 8-8, 9-7. It's time for this franchise to turn the corner on being a middle of the road team.
     
  13. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

    2,435
    1,672
    113
    Apr 27, 2013
    Brazil
    Well said. This is exactly what it is, if Ryan Tannehill (more so than Jordan) progresses, we can be a 10-6 or even 11-5 team, if not we will finish 7-9 or 8-8. So really if you predict a record worse than last year, you are basically saying you do not think Tannehill will progress. I want to predict a better record, but as of right now I'm going with 9-7, a 3-3 division record and a Wild Card trip to the playoffs.
     
  14. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,843
    10,283
    113
    Dec 18, 2007
    Columbia, South Carolina
    I would have to think both Qbs for the Bills and Jest improve in their second year. We can't really have asked for a better situation last year than two completely terrible rookie Qbs in the division and we didn't take advantage. Unless you are assuming both Qbs step back which I don't see happening.
     
  15. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

    2,435
    1,672
    113
    Apr 27, 2013
    Brazil
    We can also hope Brady takes a step back..seems like last year he wasn't his old self, maybe the decline has already started.
     
  16. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    It is not out of the realm of possibility or even probability that both QBs don't improve and due to having an extra year of film on them, defenses play them better.

    As of right now, we do not know. There have been plenty of years where Miami started with an easy schedules and then by the end of the year it turned out to be a hard schedule and visa versa.
     
  17. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,810
    8,965
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    Honestly I don't care how nany steps Geno Smith takes, he is a worse prospect than Mark Sanchez and has no business being a starter for any NFL team.

    Never was a fan of EJ either as a prospect. I rated him as a third rounder so I'm still not scared of that.
     
    djphinfan likes this.
  18. Phoenician Fan

    Phoenician Fan Well-Known Member

    1,242
    340
    83
    Mar 21, 2013
    Expect Vick, not Geno.
     
  19. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,843
    10,283
    113
    Dec 18, 2007
    Columbia, South Carolina
    EJ just got better after they picked Sammy, so did their offense. Geno I'm not a big fan of but the Jest just need a Qb that doesn't turn the ball over so if Vick or Geno can do that they are a much better team.
     
  20. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,843
    10,283
    113
    Dec 18, 2007
    Columbia, South Carolina
    True, but I do think our schedule is tough on paper and in reality. I could see us actually improving and being an 8 win team.
     
  21. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,810
    8,965
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    Vick is a turnover machine and Geno can't throw a ball more than 30 yards in the air on target. So I'm not worried about that...at all. If they beat us it wont be due to QB play.

    Sure Manual has a better weapon now. That doesnt mean he will be a great QB.
     
  22. The Sportz Guy

    The Sportz Guy New Member

    186
    89
    0
    May 11, 2014
    I can't possibly see how the Dolphins are not better than last year.....


    1) The only notable losses are Paul Soliai, Chris Clemons, and Nolan Carrol. I think Soliai's absence will be felt the most, but Mitchell can handle the load and rush the passer better. Louis Delmas replacing Chris Clemons is an even swap, maybe an upgrade. Nolan Carrol was not even really that great. The addition of Finnegan, Aikens, and the development of Taylor will fill those shoes easily.
    2) Linebacking play cannot be any worse. Ellerbe will have another year of starting experience under his belt, and I still like the speed and potential of the Ellerbe/Wheeler duo. Give them some time to gel with the defensive scheme.
    3) Dion Jordan will have a full healthy offseason to get acclimated. I don't think anyone really expected to make a big difference in year one. Now, we get to see what this guy can do.
    4) Lazor should do a much better job than Sherman last year. The offensive play calling was simply terrible.
    5) Ryan Tannehill will have more time to gel with Mike Wallace. It's not like their connection can get any worse. Wallace actually making plays in the passing game will help.
    6) The duo of Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller will be much more productive. Moreno will be great in pass protection and pass catching. Lamar will be better as a play-making back instead of an every-down back.
    7) Last but not least, the offensive line has vastly improved. It's amazing the line could even protect Tannehill at all after Pouncey, Incognito, and Martin were gone. The additions of Albert, James, Turner, and Smith will do wonders.
     
    Fin D and ElNino like this.
  23. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    Well, check out the balls on Football Outsiders. 7-9, eh?

    BOLD prediction.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I think any objective evaluation of the team will probably steer toward the 7.5 win mark. It's not just Football Outsiders. That's what Las Vegas is steering toward as well, I think. And as opposed to Football Outsiders, there are tremendous amounts of money and liability at stake when it comes to sports books and Vegas oddsmaking. They don't just shoot off the hip because they're blowhards. Inaccuracy can directly affect their bottom line.

    You can say that all they need do is estimate what the public thinks the record will be and then just put the over/under on that so that they get 50% of betting in one direction and 50% in another, but this completely disregards sharp betting. They're trying to make sure the EXPERTS that are throwing around large amounts of money that dwarf common bets also disagree and are staked out on both sides of the line. You put out one bad line and a betting syndicate can take you for a ride.

    Are they right? Remains to be seen. The Dolphins have been remarkably predictable that way in recent years. They're probably due for a year that either strongly underperforms or strongly outperforms the expected win total.

    The biggest wildcard I see is Bill Lazor and what exactly he brings to the Dolphins ground game (if anything). Not only that but I'll be interested in seeing what he does to the inherent timing built-in to the passing game.
     
  25. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    Let me get this straight, we are worse off than in 2013 with a weaker roster, new GM, new OC, new OL coach, and so on. The teams we play are better coached, picked by their GM, and much more talented. I mean, well hell, lets just tuck tail and run home to momma cause there's not any reason to even play the games.

    Last year we:
    A) had the OL implode
    b) internal fighting between Philbin and Ireland
    C) yet went into the last 2 games with a chance to get into the playoffs with Joe being talked about as a possible coach of the year guy.
    D) murphy reared his ugly head and so we lost those last 2 to still reach 8-8

    This year by all reports:
    A) the football side is reportedly all on the same page, GM, HC, and purse strings.
    B) short of a terrorist attack it would be impossible for our OL to be worse that last year (team 6 would have to kill them all)
    C) Philbin has been given his type of player and contrary to popular belief will start several rookies because the picks this year are not all coming off injuries thus will have a complete training camp to become the stars we hope they will be.

    I can easily see a 10 or 11 win season and really expect no less.

    The fly in the ointment being RT's growth and leadership abilities. As he goes so goes this ship.
     
    MrClean likes this.
  26. ElNino

    ElNino Well-Known Member

    1,535
    255
    83
    Aug 5, 2013
    Norfolk VA
    The better O-line, more experienced QB, addition of good veteran RB should be good for 2 more wins in what were close games last year - say 14 more points for those 2 extra wins. Throw in the combo of some changes in the secondary hopefully for the better, Dion Jordan in his second year, and Sturgis missing fewer kicks in 2nd year for an additional win, we are at 11-5 this year. I know it's a reach, but broken down like that it does not seem too outlandish to me.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Problem is this post could have been written about 12 months ago and the point would have stood. All the stuff that went wrong in 2013 is stuff that a lot of people either never saw coming or specifically refuted when brought up by those that did see them coming.

    And yes it is possible for the OL to be worst than a year ago. Tyson Clabo settled down and played well for half the year and Bryant McKinnie gave us good play at left tackle once he was traded for as well. Mike Pouncey is an All Pro, we had half the year with Richie Incognito (a Pro Bowler) and Nate Garner was one of the men that relieved him at various points and he was mediocre. Nobody ever complained about John Jerry the way they did about Jon Martin (post-freakout) or Tyson Clabo.

    So yes really it's very possible for the OL to be just as bad. If Branden Albert continues his streak of getting hurt for a significant amount of games then we could have virtually the left tackle play as a year ago. If a rookie JaWuan James sucks for half the year at right tackle then settles in and plays well for the second half of the year, would anyone really be surprised there? Shelley Smith's biggest weakness is in pass protection. I'm not sure we can reasonably expect him to be better in pass pro than John Jerry was. Then you're down to whether a 3rd round player from the FCS (Billy Turner) is able to start and make an impact as a rookie...and let's just say objectively speaking the odds aren't in favor of that.

    I believe the line play will be better than 2013. But there's a pretty well defined and easily imaginable path to it being just as bad.
     
  28. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    I really disagree with this statement. There were many people complaining about John Jerry to the point where a lot of people didn't believe he deserved to be in the league.

    I didn't really agree with him, however there were plenty of people complaining about how terrible he was, up there with Clabo at least.
     
  29. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Concerns were raised about the oline last offseason and anyone who did was shouted down.

    I understand being excited and optimistic but fans don't need to be unreceptive to critical analysis.
     
    gafinfan and ckparrothead like this.
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Jonathan Martin was constantly defended as doing a better job than he was actually doing, right up to the point that he freaked out and walked out on the team. At that point people finally came to grips with just how bad he was.
     
  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    I freely admit that I was not worried about Martin last offseason. I was under the belief that Philbin wanted him there.

    I was 100% wrong about both of those.

    However, it seems the same people that complained about the line last offseason are STILL glooming and dooming about the oline this year even though we did everything they wanted. Sure its a year late (thanks to Ireland) but the moves would have still made all those people happy then, so why not this year?
     
  32. mcioci

    mcioci New Member

    60
    14
    0
    Apr 20, 2010
    Too hard of a schedule


    With 2 rookies on oline, weak LB's and a very tough schedule, I do not see more than 8 wins. I know I'm going out on a limb with this prediction, haha. If we don't make playoffs I hope we get rid of Philbin and Coyle.
     
  33. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

    3,561
    447
    83
    Sep 20, 2011
    Massachusetts
    Yes! :)
     
  34. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

    3,561
    447
    83
    Sep 20, 2011
    Massachusetts
    We can all talk about how RT needs to "make that jump," but if he's on his back 58 times again, it's 6-10/8-8 all over again. It does really all depend on what he has "blocking" in front of him. I don't care what QB you are, no one is succeeding with that amount of sacks. Hopefully that changes. With that said, I'd like to think he'll be allowed to run this season if he chooses. And ****ing QB sneak wouldn't kill this team either.
     
    77FinFan likes this.
  35. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    There is no way our oline is as bad or worse than it was last year. We don't know it will be two rookies starting, it is just as plausible as having one or zero rookies starting with a potential of Thomas & Smith at guards and/or Fox at RT. We do know for a fact that Albert is the best LT we've had in awhile and Benton is a dramatic upgrade at oline coach over Turner.

    Its just as likely that our LB play improves and I doubt they are worse. They are a weakness to be sure, but with the same LBs last year had our oline been as improved as this coming year, we'd have easily made the playoffs and had beaten 4 other playoff teams during the year.

    Worrying about the "toughness" of a schedule before the season is pointless. Besides, every year I'm told we have a very tough schedule.
     
  36. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Seriously, the OL was really bad after the 3-0 start, the winning wallpapered over how poor they were as a unit.

    Clabo, Jerry, Martin, all hot garbage, I also think Sherman had little concept of how playcalling could help out the OL, add in the "80 plays per game" meant the D was on the field a lot and it is a wonder we did as well as we did..including beating the pats.

    People choose to forget we did beat several playoff teams last season, even with the bad OL and Ellerbe and Wheeler looking mostly lost last season.
     
  37. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Doesn't matter...Bellicheat will pick up an UDFA from Bumfook South Central Community College and he'll be a HoF'er.
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,652
    67,546
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Martin and Clabo didn't belong on the field..were gonna be better.
     

Share This Page