****The Official 2013-14 NBA Thread****

Heat in 4

 

Where are you guys getting this "underdog" nonsense..

 

I watched only 1 game this season and post season, the last game against the Pacers.
I'm still debating whether I should watch the finals or just follow it on score updates.
After last year's finals, I find it really hard if not impossible to watch Heat games. It just to nerve racking.

 

Heat win game 1

Lose 2 n 3

Win 4

Lose5

Win 6

Lose 7

 

The Heat are a clear cut underdog.

Based on Media, Advanced Metrics, and Metrics Simulations such as Accuscore. Internet gambling sites, and some places in Vegas have the Spurs as a slight favorite.

The Last time the Heat was a underdog in a series was vs. OKC in 12'. After game 2, the Heat became an overwhelming favorite to win that series.

 

So you are predicting the Heat to:

Win a game 1 on the road which Lebron has never done.

Lose two in a row, which this team has not done in the playoffs in 2 years, and 9 series.

The Clearer path to 7 is alternating wins/losses right to 7, starting with a Spurs gm 1 win. Heat win 2, 4, and 6.

I think the most likely outcome for Miami is a 3-1 lead going to SA, then lose, then close out in 6.

I think it;s a coin flip and wouldn't bet one way or another. No result would surprise me, except for a sweep either way of course. But both teams can win in 5,6, or 7.

 

Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No

 

I don't know if you have the numbers to verify this, but my impression is that Lebron's mid-range jump shot was much better this year. I don't remember that fade away being as reliable in the past as it has this year. I know his overall efficiency improved, but has that mid-range jumper improved as well?

 

From everyone and their mother picking the Spurs.

 

It is better. he actually out-shot Durant from the midrange this year.

 

I don;t see how you can disagree on the 4th one.

 

Media means zip...Vegas knows best

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

 

Last i checked miami was +3.5 game 1 so..

 

my bet

spurs
heat
heat
heat
spurs
heat

looks oddly familiar

 

Heat
Heat
Heat
Heat
Party

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

 

3peat heat!

 

Do any books accept MC or at least a prepaid visa?

 

Tonight is game one....I'm so ready for this. It should be ridiculously exciting.

Hoping neither team comes out flat.

 

Any word on the officiating crew tonight?

 

Lets go heat!!! Gameday, son!!!!

 

I'm glad that the game starts at 9pm (8pm my time) so I can get stuff done after work. Sorry grandpa SICK, you'll have to reach for that extra cup of coffee tomorrow morning.

 

Scott Foster
.626
Marc Davis
.662
Ken Mauer
.607
John Goble
.679

Playoffs Home Win%


http://www.basketball-reference.com/referees/
Note: Was looking at their career playoffs stats. I could be way off.

 

Alright, Alright, Alright- Just Win Heat, Just win!!

 

Pfftt thinking about calling in tomorrow

 

Honestly those % don't feel too bad for us.

 

Isn't Scott Foster a notorious road team ref?

I remember Sec bringing that up before Game 6 against Indy.

Just thank god it's not Tony Brothers. You don't even need to bother watching at that point

 

[TABLE="class: outer_border, width: 500, align: left"]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]Playoffs Home Win%[/TD]
[TD]Through ____ games[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Scott Foster[/TD]
[TD].545[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc Davis[/TD]
[TD].700[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ken Mauer[/TD]
[TD].636[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Goble[/TD]
[TD].667[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]








http://www.basketball-reference.com/referees/

Note: Crap sample size. I'm probably still not looking at the right thing either.

 

Refs with a high home win percentage. LeBron with a history of not winning game 1 on the road.

Smells like a Spurs win tonight.

 

Heat win by 15 tonight

 

I don't consider their % particularly high at all. I actually feel they are relatively low.

 

I agree with you for the most part but the one thing I disagee on is your bringing up that Lebron has never won a Game 1 on the road. I just think that's too small a sample size, and it's probably over-levered toward his time in Cleveland, which is where he'd find himself playing a team seeded higher than his own, hence Game 1 being on the road.

Just strikes me as picking the situations down to something so specific that you've got a small sample size skewed by circumstances.

I think you're forced to deconstruct the trend in order to find whether it's valid.

Is Lebron bad in Game 1's? Perhaps he takes a while to feel a series out? Here are his Game 1 records over his career.

2006: 1-1
2007: 2-2
2008: 1-1
2009: 2-1
2010: 2-0
2011: 3-1
2012: 3-1
2013: 2-2
2014: 2-1

So he's 18-10 in Game 1's and that includes 18-3 at home in Game 1 since as you say he's 0-7 away in Game 1. It's not like he has a habit of starting series out slow. If he were not strong in home Game 1's it would go a ways toward explaining why he's even weaker in road Game 1's. But that's not the case.

Then you look at his play itself during the games in question. What I see is an upward trend. Before getting to Miami he hadn't played a road Game 1 since like 2008, so that 0-4 was early in his career and there's no doubt he played poorly in those losses. He also played poorly in his first road Game 1 loss in Miami to Chicago in 2011.

But the road Game 1's he played in 2012 and 2014 were different stories. I see a 30 point, 9 rebound, 4 assist, 4 steal effort against OKC on the road in Game 1 of the 2012 Finals. I see a 25 point, 10 rebound, 5 assist and 3 steal effort against Indiana on the road in Game 1 of this year's Eastern Conference Finals. Miami easily could've won either games if other players had shown up or if everything didn't go so well for the opposition.

That said I have no idea who will win tonight.

My gut tells me the Spurs will take out a full year of angst about last year's championship series on the Heat right away in Game 1, especially at home, with jumpers raining at an unsustainable pace driven by the crowd's madness.

But my gut also tells me Tony Parker's injury is going to be severely impactful and the Heat may just be the better team and make the other side's angst irrelevant. If that's the case, the Heat will lose games that the Heat decide they'll lose, which will probably mean Games 2 and 5.

 

Heat win tonight with Parker hobbled. Gotta think he'll play reduced minutes these first couple games...and even then Cole (and Chalmers) will have a much easier time handling his diminished quickness on both ends. That injury is a huge blow to the Spurs' chances in this series.

 

Yes. He is. BUT...his crew is murder.

But...the crew they hit the Heat with in Game 6 vs. Indy was the worst crew in history..Heat made it not matter.


I want Danny Crawford for game 2 after we squeak one out tonight. Then it's a wrap.

 

Cole could be key in thid series. When he turns his defensive intensity up he can pester the ball handler as well pound for pound as anyone.

 

Agreed (aside from a handful of defenders I'd take over him). Perimeter defense with consistent ball pressure can kill teams by forcing TOs and ruining timing and pace. If you watched the Final Four...Cole should be planning on using all his energy to do a Ryan Boatright/Shabazz Napier impression. Those guys played amazing, relentless perimeter defense that won them the title.

 

I hope Cole is better this time around then last year. Parker ate him alive last year.

 

That has been the problem with Cole during his short career IMO in a nutshell. I never know which Norris Cole I'm going to get, very inconsistent.

 

Heat 99 SA 93

Spurs have messed up and will have ALL the pressure on them tonight. Once they settle in they will be fine, but tonight? Heat win.

Taking all bets

 

The jynx is set.

 

Good luck with that....

I must say...I feel okay about tonight...but wouldn't bet a dime.