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Ryan Tannehill - Quarterbacks in Focus (PFF)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Clark Kent, Jul 10, 2014.

  1. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    I don't know if this is new. Probably not. Maybe I'm way late on this. If so, lock it up and point me to the right thread if a discussion on this topic already exists. But for those of you who haven't seen this, Pro football focus has a breakdown of all the QB's in various situations, circumstances, and scenarios. I was thinking of doing a breakdown of them each and using PFF screenshots but... I don't know how kosher it would be. And really, PFF does a good enough job of explaining the meaning.

    The link:
    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/03/qbs-in-focus/

    ***PFF's QB evaluation by the numbers is best understood by reading and examining all of the categories. It's like a puzzle. This way you can connect the dots between them. JMO. If you have an hour to kill, it's pretty interesting***


    My quick initial thoughts:

    - In the "Pass Depth" category, Tannehill graded positive throughout. "Pass Depth" according to PFF guidelines grade yards for which the ball traveled in the air, excluding YAC. Tannehill's positive grades surprised me. My eyes told me that he struggled quite a bit in this area, but the numbers are solid for the most part. When I re-sign up for NFL Rewind, I'm going to pay more attention and try to make sense of it. Really, the INT's hurt him more than anything. Outside of those, his numbers are strong. And if he cuts out the picks, he's grading out like a boss...

    - Speaking of the above, Ryan Tannehill had a positive grade for 9 routes in the "Routes thrown" category. Ranked 8th overall. Shocking... At least to me. I've hammered Ryan on this all year, but the numbers tell a different tale. Curious if anyone has a well thought up explanation? Certainly, the 6 drops he experienced probably drastically changed his final overall numbers (at least according to PFF). I wonder if under throw drops count? Maybe that's the disconnect I'm having? A dropped under throw or dropped over throw still gives Ryan partial responsibility, IMO. PFF might not see it that way by the numbers, but I do... Obviously, being a metric's site, PFF doesn't care if a pass was just plain completed or if it was completed in stride and gave the receiver an opportunity to make a big play. Which is why the accuracy numbers give me pause. Curious if anyone else has thoughts on this.

    - The best QB's in the league were helped by heaps of playaction. Statistically they were strong and they ran it a lot. Miami ran very little action. This is probably for numerous reasons relating to sucking at run blocking (in addition to all other blocking) and the ease in which Miami gave up pressure, thus hindering Tannehill's ability to read and react in the nano seconds he would have otherwise. Tannehill had a 121 QB rating when running play action in 2013. Will be interesting to see how well Tanny is with a run game, if we get one sooner rather than later.

    - In addition to the above, in 2nd/medium, 2nd/short, 3rd/medium, 3rd/short, Ryan graded out extremely high. With the exception of 3rd and medium (still a positive grade), Ryan was top 3 in the NFL. Basically, in non obvious passing situations, Tannehill was awesome. Defenses couldn't key on the pass with 7 men in coverage and 4 rushers... This is supported by the pressure stats, which I'll talk about next...

    - Defenses ate Tannehill's lunch in the "pressure, no blitz" category. Basically 4 down lineman and 7 men in coverage skewed his stats towards the negative in a massive way. For example, 60% or thereabouts of his 17 INT's came from this type of defensive scheme. We've talked on this board about Tannehill's chunk turnovers. Maybe it's less psychological than I've been suggesting. In fact, looking at the "time to throw" category is interesting. When Tannehill had 2.0 seconds or less to throw... Not so good. When he had 2.1-2.5 seconds to throw, 2nd best in the NFL after Tom Brady. After 2.1-2.5 seconds, Tannehill actually falls down the list steadily in the next few "Time to throw" tables. Looking at the drop back depth numbers, Ryan was strongest with 3-5 step drops. I think there's obviously a connection between Ryan throwing in rhythm of the play design and having success. I think it also supports the idea that Tannehill was either getting gang raped at the start of the play by the opponents front 4. Or the oline did it's job and the front 4 was neutralized, but the 7 men in coverage made passing efficiently very difficult. He was kind of damned either way and made for mixed results (as it would for any QB).

    - Blitzing Tannehill was not a great decision by defensive coaches overall. He graded positive in every "blitz" category. Perhaps this is why some coordinator is bashing Tannehill. They didn't need to work real hard to create a scheme against him. Our oline sucked so bad, you would be an idiot not to run a vanilla defense. Rush 4 and drop 7 into coverage. You likely will get immediate pressure. If you don't get pressure right away, you've still got 7 men in coverage to buy your Dline time to get to him or create difficult passing situations throwing into 7 man coverages. While Tannehill has some responsibility for his mixed play in these situations, I don't see elite QB's in this league being able to fare significantly better under the same circumstances.

    - Tannehill was strong from under center. Obviously because of the pressure, Shotgun probably suited him best (we ran it 80% of the time). But again, I think his under center numbers support the idea that Tannehill was very dangerous when defenses had to play it safe and not commit to the pass. With Lazor, I'm very interested in whether or not all the motion will stop the defenses into keying in on the pass. And certainly, it might help identify some pre-snap reads for Tannehill. Two things that might help up his game even more.

    - Ryan Tannehill doesn't throw to his left very well. I wonder how much of that is pressure related and him not getting opportunities to physically adjust to a left sided throw? I do know that on some sacks last year he outright missed open outlets to his left. I can think of 3 of the top of my head. Youtube Tannehill's sacks, and you'll see a bunch. Truthfully, I'm hoping someone smarter than I can expand their thoughts on this issue of Tannehill's. The middle of the field and to the right were his bread and butter in terms of overall numbers. Kind of makes me wonder why Hartline wasn't lined up on the right instead of Wallace, given he's Tannehill's favorite and most reliable target. I this speaks to the idea of Sherman trying to fit a square peg (Wallace) into a round hole. This is one of the things that excites me about Lazor.

    - According to PFF, Tannehill had zero 1 step drops. Is that true? I can think of a few WR screens (like the one in Indy to Wallace for a TD)... Either way, the numbers for the QB's who did are all high. An average of 70%+ completion, huge TD/INT ratio. Given our deficiencies in blocking, really unexcusable. Same for the lack of screens, which racked up stats for for the "elite" type QB's. The lack of a quick passing game/easy completions make what Tannehill did all the more impressive, IMO. One thing I noticed is Tannehill tends to have a lower than average TD% than guys he's ranked highly with. Maybe that's a part of the reason why.




    I certainly think of myself as a Tannehill fan and supporter. Even so, just reading all those numbers, I'm pretty surprised. Ryan Tannehill is kind of a bad ***... He's consistently in the top 10 performing QB by PFF's metric standards. Occasionally right on the cusp of top 10. And very rarely does he ever grade negatively otherwise. By the numbers, Ryan Tannehill is very impressive. Obviously, numbers aren't everything. There are circumstances for which the numbers don't account for. Which is why comparing them with what I saw is important. Even as a supporter of Tannehill, I'm still pretty critical of him. But I have to say, I'm more impressed with him than I was yesterday. Limited college experience at QB. Two years in the NFL, with talent deficiencies all over... Still playing solid, obviously great at times. I knew all of that before, but to see it numerically has given me a fresh perspective.

    While PFF is hardly the end all be all, I enjoyed what I read. Especially when looking at the young QB's who constantly outshine him in the media despite Tannehill being statistically/metrically better. I'm looking at you Cam Newton, Ckap, RGIII, and somewhat Andrew Luck...


    Anyway, that's it for now. Check out the link if you haven't read it before. Interesting read no matter what you come away with.
     
  2. Hobiesailor

    Hobiesailor Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I wish mobile browsers would let you fist bump, great read, hadn't read it before and great summary, thanks
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Seems to me the 7 men in coverage performance is his key area to improve, if the blocking does improve he will see more of it this season and he has to adapt

    The low hanging fruit approach would be for THill to simply take off running, which will work for awhile it just glosses over the problem.

    Basically THill will have to get better at reading the entire field and anticipating when a Wr will come open in that situation
     
  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The problem isn't 7 man coverage. The problem is having little more than 2 seconds to decipher that 7 man coverage because the line was so bad. I don't know the numbers this year, but his first year he was a 90+ rated passer when he had over 2.6 seconds to throw (give or take on those numbers, I can't remember them exactly).
     
  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    This is what I am speaking of, the answer is usually a Rb out of the back field as a kind of security blanket BUT, Sherman's scheme usually required the Rb to stay in and block, which to me means an opportunity for Miller/Moreno/Thomas, tho personally I thought that should have been Thigpen's role last yr
     
  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Still, the line is more the issue than Tannehill.

    Either they aren't giving him the time to read the field with 7 in coverage or they are so bad that backs and TEs have to stay in and block instead of being safety valves.

    Its another reason the Wallace connection was so bad. Since the line was so poor even without the other team having to rush so many, Ryan had to rely on timing more. There's no time to read the field like you'd want him to, but there is time to assume you're guy is going to be at x spot at x time. If Wallace doesn't run those routes correctly it all gets thrown off.

    "Save the cheerleader, save the world" should be "Fix the oline, make the playoffs" for us.
     
  7. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Great read. It definitely vibes with what I see on film. The OL had trouble handling 4 man rushes wo help from a back or TE so there were way too many instances of RT having 3-4 targets facing 7 in coverage AND the added handicap of not having much time to throw. That equals more pressure on the QB to read the D and get the ball out, the receivers have less time to get open, the OC is restricted in the route combos he can use and defenses know all of this and can plan accordingly.

    If the new OL can handle 4 man pressures w/o help then the entire passing game becomes much more difficult to stop. Thats the main reason why fixing the OL supersedes anything else. And why IMO Tannehill enjoy his best season by far, this season.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I'm just gonna PM you what I want to say, that way you can explain it clearly and succinctly and intelligently, from now on.
     
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  9. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Mike Wallace has to be accounted for on virtually every snap, very few teams can afford to play him with 1 guy, leaving 5 guys to cover the other 4 eligibles. Clay is a matchup problem, Hartline/Gibson are reliable targets, Miller is a dangerous guy on screens and check downs when he's not stuck babysitting the QB, and even if defenses manage to cover all those guys Tannehill has the athleticism to escape and pick up yards with his legs.

    From the defense's perspective it's problem after problem after problem. But it's all contingent on the OL being able to hold their own.
     
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  10. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Ha! And I'll forward mine to Todd or Raf, get their version and then claim it as my own...
     
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  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    OL does handle itself the situation is perfect for a pass catching rb to leak out of the backfield and win a one on one matchup, we rarely did that last season.

    To me we should have a rb that ends up with 40-50 receptions just from that situation, if the rb can go down the seam on that play he should be wide open

    The 4 on 5 blocking situation last season was incredibly frustrating b/c is seemed like the OL simply did not know their assignments and d-linemen would literally run by the offensive lineman who would look around like "was that my guy?"
     
  12. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Don't forget to send it to Mr Clean so he can correct the typos and misspellings.
     
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  13. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    Thought I would get a break from abysmal OL play at least during the offseason. And then I caught a Hamilton Tiger Cats game. Just call that OL Miami North ;p
     
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  14. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is why I disagree with the comment in the Football Gameplan season preview that the number one priority for the Phins is for Tannehill to progress. If the OL is fixed to the point were they function merely as an average NFL unit, then I think Ryan's play will get better regardless of any actual progress he makes.
     
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  15. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    And this doesn't include a non-existent running game, which made Tannehill's life even tougher. Considering all of that, I don't know how some aren't excited for his future. Given the circumstances I thought he played well for most of the season.
     
  16. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    Unfortunately, I don't see our line playing better before the bye week. While Albert is an upgrade at LT, the other four positions are either young or average at best.
    If Pouncey can comeback after the bye week, then I think we see Tannehill's play improve.
     
  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Don't agree.

    Pressure from the outside with just a four man rush should improve a lot.
     
  18. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Pouncey's absence will hurt, but it won't make a huge difference in pass pro IMO. He was out vs the Chargers and Panthers last year and the other guys stepped up and did a decent job. Now if Albert is out for an extended period then it'll be time to worry.
     
  19. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Couldnt agree more. Even a slight improvement from RT will show up in a major way provided the OL is playing at an average or better level.
     
  20. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    88.6 QB rating this year in those same scenarios. He and Brady mirrored each other in that they were both at the top of the list for 2.1-2.5 seconds. And both were next to each other towards the bottom for 2.6-3.0 seconds. Can't speak on why TB had issues as I don't watch enough Pats games to understand it. Obviously with Tannehill, I think it was a combination of having to live on the extremes of getting pressured and facing 7 men in coverage. Like GM pointed out, keeping extra guys in to block hurt too I'm sure.


    To expand on what I wrote earlier, I noticed I missed a category on PFF's site. Vs. Base, Nickle, and Dime packages. While this information doesn't tell a new story, I think it further cements the idea of how bad the oline was.

    * Vs. Base D (4 DB's)
    -Tannehill graded out at +.04 w/a 93.6 QB rating.
    -21st overall (a few guys ahead of him didn't start 16 games either, so I don't know how fair it is to say he was legit 21st. More like 15th if you exclude them)
    - Given that we played from the shotgun 80% of the time, this would be non obvious passing situations (2nd/3rd and short and goaline, I would think).

    * Vs. Nickle (5 DB's)
    -Tannehill graded out +18.1 w/a 82.8 QB rating.
    -2nd overall, behind Peyton Manning.
    -9 TD's to 7 Int vs. Nickle, kill RT's QB rating. TD% is lower than average, while INT% is above average. Most guys have 15-20 TD's compared to Ryan's 9.
    - Speaks to his success in "non obvious passing situations" ability, I would think. Nickle is more the base D in the NFL now.

    * Dime (6 or more DB's)
    - Tannehill graded out near the bottom w/a 66.7 QB rating and -2.8.
    - PFF noted that "Surprising to see Tannehill face the most snaps against six or more defensive backs with 172. That represented 26% of his drop-backs.". We know Ryan beat the blitz well and had strong #'s, so I think this further speaks to the concept of Ryan facing pressure w/No Blitz aka rush 4, drop 7, where his stats took a nose dive. GM explained that one even better than I did.
    -Tom Brady graded dead last in this area w/a 65.5 rating. Tom Brady and Ryan Tannehill have very similar rankings and placements...That might be something worth looking into.


    Here's where it gets interesting...


    * Vs. 5+ DB's (all sub packages, basically nickle and dime combined)
    - Tannehill actually graded high overall (15.3)
    -6th in the NFL. Right behind some big names, Pey Pey, Brees, Wilson, Rivers, and Cutler.
    - 77.7 QB rating (19/16 TD/INT). Vs. Dime (6+ DB's) defense killed his QB rating. He's surrounded by 90-100 QB ratings. Says a lot about his potential if he gets help.
    - 60% completion
    - Lower than average Yards per attempt, YPC, and accuracy (factors drops).


    In summation, this line better ****ing block...
     
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  21. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lack of receiving options. When you strip all of his receiving options, that kinda happens. When Gronk came back briefly, the Patriots offense was once again one of the best in the NFL. With Amendola healthy, Gronk available, and Edelman, they were averaging 35 ppg while Denver was at 30, and New Orleans at 23 over the same time span when Gronk and Amendola and Edelman played together.
     
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  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    smart mother grabber...

    To Clark Kent for a great post..

    I'm one who puts more stock then most when it comes to PFF, I respect their processes and conclusions over any other stat site, because I know what they ask of the people that do the breakdowns.

    This stuff gives me some hope that I dint take into account that Ryan was dealing with an extra man in the secondary than the norm, I still feel confident I know his weaknesses but this certainly makes me think..
     
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  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    WE will know quickly, Training Camp, our front 4 is deep and talented if we hear reports that the #1's are being blown out by Kraken and OV and Starks et al, then we are in deep deep problems

    How many yrs have we heard "oh it takes the ol time to gel" when the regular season starts..they are hot garbage/
     
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  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I would be more afraid if the reports were Kracken, OV, Starks in company weren't blowing out the #1's.
     
  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If he gets more clean pockets than last than of course, he still needs to improve his play speed, touch, sense of the rush, and know when to takeoff to make a freakin play when we need one..
     
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  26. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Besides, "X player has all the tools to be successful," I think that line about O-line needing time to gel is one of the most overused and overrated in sports. If you go through an entire training camp and still aren't in sync, players are not likely to improve a significant amount throughout the season. At some point, geling isn't the issue. At some point, having all the tools isn't the issue. You're either good enough or you're not. Training camp will speak volumes about this offensive line, one way or the other.
     
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  27. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Let's hope you are right because then all this media hype about our line struggling this year because they haven't played together is just that hype.
     
  28. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO the coaching and scheme is a much bigger factor in how quickly players play well. A good coach recognizes what a player does well naturally and instinctively and tries to maximize his opportunities to do that. And obviously minimizes the converse.
     
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  29. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think that's easier to do with the skill positions than the OL where you need to fit one scheme to the skill sets of 5 different players.
     
  30. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Media hype, that's exactly what it is and unfortunately it's taken at face value by a lot of people.

    If we beat the Jets last year we make the playoffs, Philbin is hailed as the cool and collected coach leading the team thru adversity. Miami is the up and coming team w a new OL and OC, ready to challenge in the AFC. Instead we lose and Philbin is the lame duck coach w one foot already out the door.
     
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  31. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We lost badly, at home, against a rookie Qb, and if you remember, the jets kicked our *** in the physicality dept...I guess we were just sooooo mentally fatigued...awwww, isn't that cute..
     
  32. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    John Jerry bouncing off of Richardson...pardon my French **** that guy
     
  33. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    The Jets game, I had the same take...they were HYPED to play that game...so were the Bucs when we played them (and they were winless!!)...same result. For those who say NFL players don't need coaches to fire them up, take a look at those games and the HCs involved, and try again.
     
  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The venue is also to blame, it's hard for these players to be self motivated all the time, other teams have such anadvantage.we don't have a venue that can uplift them...ever...not playing with a full deck.
     
  35. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If Miami did beat the Jets, I doubt they'd have ended up firing Sherman and Turner. Sherman especially.
     
  36. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd argue that the above was not true in the New England home game, especially on the final stopping drive. The place looked ready to explode going into the Jets game in the finale...and they laid a [2nd straight] massive egg, primarily because they couldn't stop the Jets pass rush nor could they do a thing about stopping the run. I do agree with the physicality part. I do believe that a lot of that has to do with preparation and well...I know you know where that thread goes.

    For comparison's sake, being from Cincinnati (it's a baseball city and always will be before anything else), Reds fans pack GABP for big games. Far too often, much like the Dolphins, the Reds don't give you anything to cheer about. Just in tonight's game, they were down 5-1 and not playing well and a sellout crowd was quiet. During the comeback in the 8th inning you'd have thought it was Game 7 of the World Series. Short story short, it goes both ways IMO re: venue and/or crowd noise/intensity vs. team performance.
     
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  37. scotty_irnbru

    scotty_irnbru Well-Known Member

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    You over sell this all the time. What about all the games we have won there? If crowd noise is so important why did the Seahawks and chiefs ever have terrible seasons? The ravens home game this year sounded great then the team was given terrible play calls and the line wet the bed. The crowd didn't deflate the team, it was the other way around.Edit - sorry, to the OP, great post.
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yup if you lose one home game its all just a silly theory, not sure whats left to prove, its all plain to see.

    Ryan is gonna be runnin for his life early,lets hope the coordinator gets him outside the pocket more than once a game..i mean if he cant do it himself,then somebody needs to do it for him
     
  39. scotty_irnbru

    scotty_irnbru Well-Known Member

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    I'm not saying it doesn't count, I'm saying you over state it. If it's so important the chiefs and the Seahawks would never lose. These are the two teams with the loudest most partisan crowd. Yet their history doesn't show continued success. The stadium could be nicer, it could be better designed to focus the noise in, it could shade the fans better. However, the only way you get success on the field is by combining good drafting, smart coaching, clever free agency, building a team the all buys in to each other and the ethos. It's got nothing to do where they play. Extrapolate your theory to other sports. Anyone who watches soccer knows that the best most powerful crowd atmospheres are teams like galatasary and besiktas in Turkey, Dortmund in Germany, lech poznan, feyenerood, Ajax. These teams have intimidating stadia, fans who make continual noise. These teams are successful only when they build the team properly. They've all been up and down.
     
  40. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Have you gone back and watched the game again?
     

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