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Miller's Breakout Year?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by PhinFan1968, Jul 15, 2014.

  1. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I've held out hope this guy can finally break out since pre-season last year, and still think there's a puncher's chance he can. The article's about Miller, but I also specifically liked what they say about Smith and James. It was written pre-Pouncey's injury, still a decent read.

    PFF Article:

    "Many fantasy writers including one of best in the business, Evan Silva, made strong cases for Miller last offseason. The buzz built up and led to an incredible jump in his ADP from 11.03 in the beginning of February to 3.09 at beginning of September. Miller turned out to be an overhyped bust after not securing the lead back role, and running behind the league’s fourth-worst run blocking unit (-67.4) while playing for a coaching staff the passed the ball nearly 60 percent of their snaps.

    The good news is that the Dolphins made a strong effort to improve their offensive line. Through free agency and the draft, they added new starters at left tackle, right guard, and right tackle. Left tackle Branden Albert is not known for his run blocking, but his skill-set projects as a nice fit for the new offensive scheme. Right guard Shelley Smith could turn out to be one of the shrewdest offseason additions as he graded out as PFF’s fourth-best run blocking guard (+12.3) in 2013 despite playing just 371 snaps. Right tackle Ja’Wuan James was a surprise first-round pick to some, but from my evaluation, he was the third-most NFL-ready offensive tackle in the draft. At center they have Mike Pouncey, who finished 2013 as our 13th-best center despite playing alongside some of the worst starting linemen in the league. Lastly, at left guard two younger talents in Dallas Thomas and Billy Turner will battle it out. It’s not inconceivable to believe that the Dolphins will have the most improved offensive line in 2014.

    Equally or more important than the improvement on the offensive line is the change in offensive coordinator and scheme. I spent last week going over how underrated offensive schemes can be in predicting fantasy success. The Dolphins ditched one of 2013’s most inconsistent and inefficient offensive coordinator in Mike Sherman, and brought in Bill Lazor, the former Eagles quarterbacks coach. The Dolphins hired Lazor to bring in his own version of Chip Kelly’s offense, without straying too far away from it. That simply means more plays with a faster pace and a larger focus on the run game. Lazor’s offense has already drawn rave reviews from Ryan Tannehill, Mike Wallace, and Brian Hartline.

    Tannehill expressed confidence in the run game, pointing to the system’s ability to create running lanes inside by spreading the field. We saw this on display all last season with the Eagles.

    Miller’s role in the offense is still to be determined, but before you give Knowshon Moreno the edge, remember that the Dolphins didn’t invest much in Moreno in free agency—he signed a one-year, $3 million deal. Moreno began the offseason getting first-team reps, but has since fallen on the depth chart after showing up out of shape. Miller has taken his place and he is receiving the majority of first-team reps.

    Miller is the most talented back on the roster, and his specific skill-set is best fit for Lazor’s spread offense. Miller’s advantage does not come from making yards out of nothing, as he forced a meager 23 missed tackles on 203 combined touches in 2013 and just 7 on a combined 57 touches in 2012. In Lazor’s offense, there will be open field lanes created that test a running back’s speed and breakaway ability. This is where Miller can put 4.40 flat speed on display. In 2013, 26.9 percent of Miller’s total rushing yards came on just 7 of his 177 rushing attempts.

    With an improved offensive line and scheme, Miller has a great chance to finally breakout in 2014."

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/19/the-all-post-hype-sleeper-team-qb-and-rbs/

     
    Pandarilla, SICK, Unlucky 13 and 4 others like this.
  2. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think it's certainly a possibility, but I think it is dependent on the team having and being able to execute the proper plays. Miller isn't a particularly well rounded runner in terms of power, but I think there's grounds for good production if you utilize him correctly. Last year they couldn't run an outside zone, and were apparently disinclined to run draw plays and get him to the edge on man-blocked plays.

    I'm not sure I really expect a huge improvement in terms of run blocking. The tackles look to be particularly weak in that regard.
     
  3. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    I don't expect a huge breakout, no. He is the exact same player he was in college: homerun hitter who leaves yards on the field because he doesn't run well through contact and because he isn't the smartest player. Nothing has changed. I'll believe in these dreamy open-field lanes when I see them (from five new OL starters).
     
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  4. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I hope Im surprised but I was honestly shocked that we didn't address the Rb position in the draft. I think Miller is a 2nd or 3rd option at Rb. I know Moreno got hurt but our Rb position is average to terrible IMHO.
     
    Larry Little likes this.
  5. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd replace "isn't the smartest player" with "isn't the most instinctive player," but I feel you. I do hope the offense incorporates draws and screens this year; those might have helped the pass protection and the running game production last year. Sometimes a staff needs to realize what they're working with and make that work the best they can. I haven't seen that in Miami for a while.
     
  6. Larry Little

    Larry Little Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd say more average than terrible, but, I agree.
     
  7. Larry Little

    Larry Little Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nice article. I'm not being facetious. However, I still expect RB to be a very high priority in next year's free agency and draft. I don't see Miller as a breakout player. I see him as a backup because of things that have already been mentioned in this thread. Physically, he's got it. Mentally, he does not. IMHO.
     
  8. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    Miller can be successful with a good offensive line in the right system. I think we have the right system and by mid-season, with Pouncey back to full health, and the team having several games under their belt with new system and new Oline, I expect our RBs will do much better in the 2nd half of the season.
     
  9. PhinishLine

    PhinishLine Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    deja vu. Had to check the date on the OP.
     
  10. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The problem with Lamar Miller for me is that he doesn't make tacklers miss or pick up extra yards after contact.

    Unless there are running lanes, he isn't going to make things happen. Thus, I don't expect a huge breakout year. I could see an improvement for sure.
     
  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    A little more from PFF in a newer article:

    "Miami Dolphins

    Under outdated play-caller Mike Sherman, no team targeted their running backs less than the Dolphins in 2013. They finished last in targets (58) and TTP (total target percentage) as only one of two teams to target their backs on less than 10 percent of their passes. This season, the Dolphins hired Bill Lazor who plans to install a similar scheme to the one he learned under Chip Kelly. Although this scheme doesn’t heavily feature the back in the passing game from a volume perspective, they were very productive when targeting their backs. I expect Lamar Miller to win the feature back job here, and he should see an increase in targets and yards, which makes him a great value in PPR leagues."
     
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  12. RickyBobby

    RickyBobby VIP DIY

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    I suspect he produces better numbers this year but he has yet to show any lateral movement to make defenders miss.

    I would not be expecting McCoy numbers out of him
     
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  13. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I wonder who the other team is? Minnesota?
     
  14. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

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