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Prospects for 2015

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by ckparrothead, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    RB Dwayne Washington, Washington (Class: 2016)

    Redshirt sophomore running back brought up by a fellow draft guy. Some good potential here. Dwayne Washington of the Washington Huskies.

    [video=youtube;-8_jko9QbsA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8_jko9QbsA[/video]
     
  2. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    [video=youtube;8zI3TPb5dYM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zI3TPb5dYM[/video]
     
  3. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    [video=youtube;TxzpvsgEXB0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxzpvsgEXB0[/video]
     
  4. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    [video=youtube;2wlaaOUrhuc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wlaaOUrhuc[/video]
     
  5. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Not happy to be in here but Tannehill has me thinking its a QB in round 1 next draft.

    So, who are the best QBs and should we start a 2015 QBs thread?


    My two cents via iPhone.
     
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  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    We're kind of at 2011 in the cycle. Jameis Winston is our next Ryan Mallett. The fans will set up shop on both sides of the debate, the team will abstain from drafting a quarterback altogether, and then we'll be mired in a Slack For Hack campaign.
     
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  7. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Then Ross will have a mulligan on Suck for Luck next season, won't he?

    Some dreams DO get a re-do.
     
  8. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    RT's still growing. QB should not be addressed next draft. Rt has a contract through '15 so '16 is the year to decide.
     
  9. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    I disagree if RT doesn't take that next step you absolutely draft a QB.
     
  10. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Seriously, every 1st/2nd/3rd year quarterback worth a damn in the NFL has already seen the playoffs and won a playoff game, if we don't make the playoffs this year it's over for Tannehill. I don't want to be the Rams waiting 5-6 years for Bradford.
     
  11. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Katy, TX
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    This is not a Ryan Tannehill thread. Please take Ryan Tannehill discussion to an appropriate thread and forum.
     
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  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Christian Hackenberg is going to be one damn fine QB prospect when the time comes, I think. Son of a gun isn't even eligible yet.

    Speaking of not eligible yet, RB James Conner had a heck of a day against Delaware. He's going to be fun to watch regardless of his not being eligible yet.

    South Florida has a back by the name of Marlon Mack that has had my juices flowing ever since I heard he was considering USF and I took a look at his high school tape. The last back that had me that excited that way was Alex Collins who ended up choosing Arkansas after some shenanigans with his mother stealing his commitment letter to try and sabotage his commitment. Collins once again looked superb this weekend from what I could see of his game. But anyway Marlon Mack was able to run for 275 yards and 4 TDs for South Florida against Western Carolina.

    My video.

    [video=youtube;QHUAN4WIuT4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHUAN4WIuT4[/video]
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    DE/OLB Bronson Kaufusi, BYU (Class: 2016)

    Bronson looks damn near unstoppable in pass rush now that he's dropped weight from the 275-285 range to the 265-275 range.

    He dominated against UConn this weekend. Someone I know from radio asked me who he should be looking at on BYU and I told him Kaufusi is his best bet, the most interesting story. He's 6'7" and now around 265 or so, having moved full time to OLB after dabbling between DE and OLB in 2013. Got two sacks against UConn.

    Not a guy you really want to put into space. But he's got NFL compelling pass rush skills. He's got the ability to run around the tackle and get to the quarterback, and he's got compelling ability to plant a foot at the bottom of the rush and come back to the passer. His best pass rush move seems to be faking the bull rush then running to the outside, but he can also go inside if the tackle oversets.

    [video=youtube;t5hbyyU4K2c]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5hbyyU4K2c&feature=player_embedded[/video]
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Thread index/original post updated.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Shawn Oakman and Shane Carden are updated.
     
  17. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That line for Hackenberg is horrible this year, I feel bad for him.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    QB Rakeem Cato, Marshall (Class: 2015)

    Five Quick Points
    #1. Small prospect at 6'0" & 193 lbs, but sees the field well and is exceptional at avoiding unnecessary contact.
    #2. Play-maker capable of threatening defense every way: running, throwing, scrambling, fakes, vision.
    #3. Completion percentage can be lower than expected at times because he goes for big passes on 1st/2nd down.
    #4. Third down efficiency and total effectiveness second only to Jameis Winston. Great situational awareness.
    #5. Extremely high character and competitiveness with a unique history of overcoming adversity.


    First Impressions:
    I first noticed Rakeem Cato prior to the 2013 season as I was researching tight ends and was attracted to Gator Hoskins due to his pure touchdown production at the position (10 touchdowns in 2012). As I looked through some tape of Hoskins playing with Marshall I could not help but notice the quarterback throwing him the football.

    My first impression was influenced strongly by two factors: play-making and toughness.

    This quarterback is a true play-maker capable of threatening a defense with his ability, as opposed to just executing an offense and making all of the throws. He is certainly more than capable of making every throw on the field, however he does better than most when things break down and he has to use his combination of awareness, vision, feet, body control and throwing ability to make plays. Some guys throw touchdowns and you're thinking, "nice read, nice throw". Some guys score a touchdown in a manner that makes your jaw drop. He is the latter.

    As for toughness, he has an edge to him whether he is on the field or on the sidelines. Having a steady temperament during a game is important for a quarterback, but that steady state can be different for each guy. Some are relatively emotionless (e.g. Eli Manning). Some always keep the game light and fun (e.g. Brett Favre). Others (e.g. Dan Marino) burn hot and keep that temperature up the whole time. Rakeem Cato is the latter. His intensity runs high and he keeps it there the entire game.

    Size Concerns: Height
    The biggest negative you're going to see when you watch Cato is the most obvious and superficial observation possible: he's small. Think of this criticism in two ways, each of which can be addressed separately. Those two ways to think of it are in terms of height and in terms of build.

    He's not a tall quarterback. He's not necessarily 5'10" or 5'11" like Russell Wilson or Johnny Manziel, either. But I would be pleasantly surprised if he measured out a full 6'1". He will probably come out like Drew Brees, a fraction over six feet.

    Why does the height matter? Two reasons. Taller guys tend to have an easier time getting the ball over the line and through the passing lanes. They also have an easier time seeing the field.

    When it comes to the former issue, I have not seen him get a lot of balls batted down at the line of scrimmage. There hasn't been a very strong evidence-based relationship between height and the tendency to get balls batted at the line. There is much more evidence that the tendency to get your passes batted at the line has more to do with your footwork, the way you work open your passing lanes, and your eye discipline. In this regard, Cato is a natural. Since he's so short, he has likely had to develop this skill over a number of years. Since he has always been small for a quarterback, he's gotten very good at it.

    The second reason height matters is because taller guys see the field better. That's not a clear-cut issue, either. Some guys are tall enough that defensive backs see THEM better as well, and those defensive backs can anticipate the ball based on their better view of the quarterback's shoulders and eyes. Other guys are within height ranges you'd not expect to be problematic, yet they do not see the field. Some shorter guys see the field absolutely fine.

    Rakeem Cato tends to have an erect stance in the pocket, with a tendency toward a narrow base. This maximizes his height and vision. As far as seeing the field goes, his head is on a swivel post-snap, his decision making is generally very good, and he only leaves the pocket to throw a pass when under duress. While these things are hardly conclusive that height will never be an issue for him from a vision standpoint, they are a good sign.

    Size Concerns: Build
    As noted, size criticisms should be thought of in two ways. The second is in terms of build. At a fraction over 6'0" in height, Rakeem Cato may weigh as little as 193 lbs. That was the weight he claimed he had reached just prior to the 2013 season. He may be heavier as of the 2014 season, but I have not seen it printed anywhere. He initially came to Marshall only 140 or 150 lbs, so he has a body history of being unusually skinny. Closeups of him on the field show a thin upper body with a thicker lower half and thighs, suggestive that he works hard to put on the weight he has managed to put on.

    Cato's build is going to be just as controversial as his height. Why does build matter? In today's NFL, quarterbacks are asked to execute option plays. They're encouraged to steal base when they read man coverage and/or feel the line open up in front of them. In both instances, just about all levels of protection the officials offer a quarterback in the NFL will disappear. The only tool remaining to a quarterback in those instances is the slide.

    Some quarterbacks such as Johnny Manziel, Michael Vick and Robert Griffin have a tendency to take contact unnecessarily. Whether it be due to slow mental processing or an overly physical mentality, these guys get beat up more than they should despite their bodies not being big or strong enough to handle the beating.

    The thing that will really stand out to you about Rakeem Cato if you watch enough of him on film is his ability to consistently avoid hits even when necessity places him in dangerous situations. As opposed to the quarterbacks named above, this is more similar to the mentality of a Russell Wilson or even a Cam Newton.

    Both quarterbacks (Wilson, Newton) stood out in my evaluation for their ability to intelligently decide the level of contact they will take on a play. In Newton's case, his size and strength are such weapons that he must make feel-based decisions about when to use that weapon to produce gains on the football field, and when to use his significant body control and athletic ability to avoid the worst of contact. His ability to do this stood out even in college. Wilson has a much less significant physical presence, and so his decisions to avoid contact are a little bit easier. Yet he also has a great feel for when his speed and quickness can be used to make football gains that are worth the potential for contact, and he's able to avoid bad hits by using his body control to soften the blow.

    Rakeem Cato patterns very closely to Wilson in this manner. He is not a guy one would expect to lower his shoulder, but he has a great sense for when his speed, quickness and make-you-miss ability will be good enough to gain a 1st down. He makes these decisions situationally. He will sell out to get to the sticks if it is 3rd down, but he'll give himself up to the ground or run out of bounds shy of the sticks if it is only 1st or 2nd down, depending on the level of threat he is facing. On plays near the goal line, he is able to use his significant body control to get low and take angles that soften the blow of a would-be tackler. This ability allows him to stick the ball over the goal line in some pretty unlikely-looking situations. When scrambling, he senses trouble before it can touch him in time to use his feet to avoid it. He sometimes turns his back to an oncoming rusher after he finishes the throw, which is something Eli Manning often does to avoid unnecessary backfield hits.

    His overall awareness and ability to minimize the damage he takes is not just "average", nor is it "above average". It is exceptional.

    Throwing:
    His throwing motion is natural, though a bit wristy. Michael Vick's delivery is also wristy. That's not necessarily a bad thing, it just means there's a little snap to his wrist which helps generate heat on the ball. This translates well to being able to throw the football from multiple platforms and is part of why he's able to throw so well on the move and under duress. It also speaks well to the quality of his grip on the football. His ability to spin the ball is good, but not necessarily exceptional.

    There is a throw that should tell you everything you need to know about Rakeem Cato's arm strength. Against Middle Tennessee State on a 1st & 10 he threw about a 40 yard pass (measured from point to point through the air) on a frozen rope to a receiver running a vertical. You can follow the link and it should take you to the correct time index, if not the play begins at 20:40 into the video. Cato regularly throws to the perimeters of the field and gets heat on the ball when doing so. He can throw the football well while rolling to his left. Arm strength should not be a question on Cato.

    Some will question Cato's accuracy, most likely because his completion percentage was "only" 59.7 percent in 2013 and is "only" 58.8 percent through six games of 2014. Context is important. Both years, Cato challenged the defense particularly on 1st and 2nd downs with lower percentage throws that have the potential for bigger gains. He averaged over 13 yards per completion in 2013 and is averaging over 16 yards per completion in 2014. A significant portion of those yards are through the air as opposed to receivers running for a ton of yardage after the catch. He completed 69.5 percent of his passes in 2012 when Marshall focused more on the quick passing game, with his yards per completion average having been just over 10 yards.

    Decision-Making:
    Rakeem Cato is first and foremost a situational decision-maker. You can sense it throughout his game. I mentioned before that he knows exactly when he needs to put his body on the line in order to gain a 1st down. That is a credit to his situational awareness.

    Something else that is a notable credit to his situational awareness is his work on 3rd down. I mentioned that on 1st and 2nd downs Cato regularly challenges the defense with lower percentage but potentially big throws. This mentality does not necessarily bleed over to 3rd downs.

    Heading into the 2014 season, I conducted some statistical studies on Jameis Winston, Rakeem Cato, Connor Cook, Kevin Hogan, Sean Mannion, Shane Carden, Bo Wallace, Brett Hundley, Bryce Petty, Chuckie Keeton, Dak Prescott, Taylor Kelly, Connor Halliday, Marcus Mariota and Cody Fajardo. These studies were aimed particularly at 3rd down and included both running and passing.

    The most effective and efficient 3rd down player in the study was Jameis Winston, by a pretty fair margin. In 2013, he converted nearly 53% of all 3rd downs in which he ran or passed the football (including sacks). Despite the perception of Jameis not playing as well in 2014, he is still converting 52% on 3rd down. Heading into the year, group median was about 40.1%.

    Additionally, Winston converted 59% of all his 3rd & 10+ situations into a 1st down, which was purely an insane result within the context of normal percentages. That is down to 41% thus far in 2014, however that mark is still head and shoulders above the group, whose median is about 26.4%.

    Jameis Winston is a discussion for another time. I bring these numbers up because without a doubt, Rakeem Cato is the second most effective 3rd down player in that group. He is currently converting 48% of his 3rd down situations in 2014, but also had high conversion rates in 2013 (45%) and 2012 (47%). This year Cato has a 135.7 NFL passer rating on 3rd down. Again, this is not a fluke as he put together 101.5 and 112.7 passer ratings on 3rd down in 2013 and 2012.

    I mentioned 3rd & 10+ situations with respect to Jameis Winston. This is something I like to track in quarterbacks because the pressure of the situation tends to equalize the variation across the board in different offenses. When you need more than 10 yards, it is an obvious passing down, and the defense will be coming after you. For those quarterbacks that are used to a clean pocket and wide open windows, that pocket will be a lot less clean and those windows a lot tighter due to the situational pressure. How often does this quarterback come through in unlikely situations?

    In Rakeem Cato's case, once again he plays second fiddle only to Jameis Winston in the study group. From 2012 thru present, he has converted 34% of his 3rd & 10+ situations. This year he has converted 38.5% of those situations. Compare that with a Marcus Mariota, who has converted only 19% of his 3rd & 10+ situations from 2012 to present. And remember, that includes running as well as passing.

    One other aspect of Cato's decision-making that you can really only appreciate on film, especially on end zone camera views, is just how much Cato's head remains on a swivel reading different parts of the field and throwing the defense off his scent with his eyes. This is not a "pick a side" type of quarterback whose head never seems to move until he throws the football. And he regularly throws into tight windows over the middle of the football field.

    Chad Pennington, whose Marshall school records Cato is threatening to topple this season, still lives in the Huntington area and has frequent contact with Cato. Situational awareness and sound decision-making were always key parts of Pennington's game as a pro. He has impressed those upon Cato in their conversations. Yet, advice can only go so far. Players can either remain aware of situations while real bullets are flying, or they can't. It is a credit to Cato that he is able to consistently show awareness and make great decisions.

    Character:
    This is the area of evaluation that is very tough, as it is difficult to weed through the various "that's what they always say" stuff that you read from coaches. However, Cato's background and character are unique in that there are discrete incidents and pieces of evidence that give you a pretty clear idea of what kind of young man he is.

    For starters, Cato was raised by a single mother in Liberty City. His father was put in prison for armed robbery before Rakeem was born. His mother raised seven of her own children, plus three children who were friends of the family. She worked multiple jobs to make ends meet. One day, when Rakeem was only 13 years old, she fell ill. She went to the hospital a few days later and was diagnosed with pneumonia. She died the next day, while Rakeem was at baseball practice.

    From that point on, Rakeem was raised by a community. His older sister kept the family together as best she could, gaining custody of her siblings. But Rakeem also farmed himself out to the households of various friends, familiar NFL names such as Devonta Freeman and T.Y. Hilton, as well as his best friend and future Marshall teammate Tommy Shuler. When he stayed with them he was just like a member of their family, doing chores and eating meals, etc.

    Even so, there are incidents which show that Rakeem had a lot of anger built up due to his mother's death and the way he was raised. To this day he describes the anger that boils up in him on Mother's Day or when he sees the special bond friends and teammates have with their parents.

    He poured himself wholly into sports and football, and he was very good at it. But in high school, at one point he was benched by the coaches and his attitude was so poor on the sidelines in reaction to being benched that all but one coach on the team voted to kick him off the team. That coach was former rap star Luther Campbell, who was serving as a disciplinary coach and recognized that Cato had a lot of built up anger because of his background.

    That attitude didn't prevent him from ending up one of the most prolific passers in Miami-Dade County history, passing for 9,412 yards, and 103 passing touchdowns with only 23 interceptions. That attitude didn't prevent him from beating Teddy Bridgewater head to head twice in his final year. That attitude didn't prevent him from winning a state football championship in arguably the toughest high school football division in the world.

    But it did prevent him from being recruited heavily. Well, that and the size (140 to 150 pounds dripping wet). He initially committed to Florida International, but the coach that recruited him there was hired to coach for Marshall and his best friend in the world Tommy Shuler also committed to Marshall, and that made Cato consider going to Huntington.

    But as a freshman tossed onto the field as an immediate starter, that anger kept boiling over. When he missed a pass or made a bad read, his anger was evident, and it was a distraction. When teammates screwed up, he yelled. When coaches told him what to do, he talked back. So six games into his true freshman year, he was benched. It only took three games before he came back onto the field.

    Did he learn from the experience? The coaches swear by it, both publicly and privately within safe confidence. Marshall coaches did a lot to try and coax Cato into opening up with his teammates. Offensive coordinator Bill Legg held meetings with Cato, center Chris Jasperse and now-New England Patriot receiver Aaron Dobson. The goal of the meeting was to get the players to talk to one another about their background, things they were thinking, things they didn't like, etc. He just wanted to create lines of communication with people in hopes that it might become a habit.

    It worked. Nowadays Cato is the highest energy player on a Marshall team full of high energy players. Every time the camera wanders to the Marshall sidelines while the offense is off the field, Cato is prowling up and down the sideline talking to different players with every single unit on the team, offering them compliments, words of encouragement, observations, and making sure they all stay tuned in. He is never still. At least half a dozen times this season I have seen Cato rushing out to greet and encourage the Marshall place kicker for having a good kickoff, or making a field goal. That's just the kind of player he has become. He is anything but anonymous.

    Doc Holliday has coached Philip Rivers at North Carolina State. He coached Tim Tebow at Florida. He coached Cam Newton for a season at Florida, as well. He coached Pat White at West Virginia. Two things he has stated about Cato emphatically are that he throws the football as well as any of those quarterbacks he's coached, and he is THE most competitive player that he has ever coached. I think those are important distinctions. He isn't trying to say Cato is better at everything than those guys. He only throws the football "as well as" any of them, but he notes that he is more competitive than any of them.

    That is something that bleeds through on the film with Cato, his intensity on a per snap basis. His background and even the nature of the trouble he ran into both in high school and as a freshman at Marshall actually lend credibility to the claim of his competitiveness. This isn't just something you say about a guy to say it. This is something palpable that has controlled Cato's football career and even taken it on some downturns to go along with the upturns.

    I have heard of no issues with Cato when it comes to off the field, with respect to illegal activities, rule breaking, or whatever. In fact someone very close to the program has communicated that Cato is very proactive in cleaning up the program, policing his own teammates and not tolerating screwups, as he cares dearly about the legacy that he leaves behind at Marshall.


    Conclusions:
    You can go on and on reading or writing about Rakeem Cato, especially due to his background. But in the end there have to be a few things that attract you to him. For me, it is the pure frequency of his making jaw-dropping plays with his own ability, combined with his highly impressive situational awareness which really shines for him most on 3rd downs. It is also his intensity level on the field, combined with his background which lends it credibility going forward. The negative is his size, however I believe that to be mitigated by his exceptional body control and physical awareness which allows him to avoid unnecessary contact.

    Videos:
    Rakeem Cato Touchdowns of 2013: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJ0NJV175es
    Rakeem Cato vs. Maryland 2013 (Military Bowl): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyrUEZeD-MU
    Rakeem Cato vs. Miami-OH 2014 (Week 1): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1VVf4Ntsvw
    Rakeem Cato vs. Akron 2014 (Week 4): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5WdBRYHjvA
    Rakeem Cato HIGHLIGHTS vs. Old Dominion, Ohio & Middle Tennessee 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9UaKGyOVIE
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I compiled first down percentages based on different third down situations.

    The three situations in the following lists are 3rd & 10+, 3rd & Under-10, and then finally just total 3rd Down.

    3rd & 10+
    Jameis Winston 59.4%
    Rakeem Cato 33.7%
    Connor Cook 33.3%
    Kevin Hogan 32.5%
    Sean Mannion 31.3%
    Shane Carden 28.7%
    Bo Wallace 26.8%
    Brett Hundley 26.4%
    Bryce Petty 25.0%
    Chuckie Keeton 24.6%
    Dak Prescott 23.5%
    Taylor Kelly 21.9%
    Connor Halliday 20.8%
    Marcus Mariota 19.7%
    Cody Fajardo 12.5%

    3rd & Under-10
    Cody Fajardo 55.3%
    Chuckie Keeton 53.0%
    Rakeem Cato 51.8%
    Dak Prescott 49.3%
    Jameis Winston 49.2%
    Kevin Hogan 48.5%
    Marcus Mariota 48.1%
    Bo Wallace 46.7%
    Bryce Petty 46.2%
    Shane Carden 45.1%
    Brett Hundley 44.0%
    Connor Cook 43.5%
    Connor Halliday 43.2%
    Taylor Kelly 39.7%
    Sean Mannion 36.9%

    3rd Down
    Jameis Winston 52.6%
    Rakeem Cato 46.9%
    Cody Fajardo 46.2%
    Chuckie Keeton 44.8%
    Kevin Hogan 44.7%
    Connor Cook 41.1%
    Dak Prescott 40.6%
    Shane Carden 40.1%
    Bo Wallace 39.7%
    Bryce Petty 39.0%
    Brett Hundley 38.3%
    Marcus Mariota 37.1%
    Taylor Kelly 35.3%
    Sean Mannion 35.0%
    Connor Halliday 34.7%

    Finally I will do an adjusted 3rd Down total which pretends that everyone had the benefit of the same mix (50/50) of 3rd & 10+ versus 3rd & Under-10 situations...

    Adjusted 3rd Down
    Jameis Winston 54.3%
    Rakeem Cato 42.7%
    Kevin Hogan 40.5%
    Chuckie Keeton 38.8%
    Connor Cook 38.4%
    Shane Carden 36.9%
    Bo Wallace 36.7%
    Dak Prescott 36.4%
    Bryce Petty 35.6%
    Brett Hundley 35.2%
    Sean Mannion 34.1%
    Cody Fajardo 33.9%
    Marcus Mariota 33.9%
    Connor Halliday 32.0%
    Taylor Kelly 30.8%

    In my opinion while both measures of 3rd down efficiency can be important, looking at what a guy is capable of in 3rd & Long situations can be a pretty good evaluation tool in looking at quarterbacks. It's not perfect by any means, as no statistical study is going to be perfect...but it's pretty decent. There are exceptions on both sides. Cam Newton was awful in 3rd & Long back at Auburn, believe it or not. So was Nick Foles at Arizona. On the other hand Andrew Luck's final season had the 2nd highest conversion percentage of any of the 44 QBs studied, 2nd only to Jameis Winston's 2013 season. Russell Wilson's was relatively high as well, with an incredible passer rating. Andy Dalton's was high, Matt Stafford's was high, Sam Bradford's was high...all those guys can play (when actually healthy which unfortunately Bradford's rarely been).
     
    ToddPhin, dolfan32323 and ssmiami like this.
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    TE C.J. Uzomah, Auburn (Class: 2015)

    Former quarterback in high school who looked really good running around, moved to wide receiver and then tight end at Auburn. Really caught my eye with limited opportunities in 2013, only had 11 catches but turned them into 154 yards and 3 TDs. Important to note, he missed 6 games...so he caught those 11 balls over 8 games.

    That eye-popping quality to his play has continued through the first game of 2014 as he had a beautiful near-TD for 26 yards against Arkansas. He turned in the air to reach out with the ball but his butt hit the ground with the ball inches shy of the goal line.

    This is going to be a guy I'm talking about months before others join me, not unlike Troy Niklas.

    Here are some of his plays from 2013 and 2014 (look for TE #81):

    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOjkRmoabHI&feature=player_detailpage#t=948 (bad throw)
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOjkRmoabHI&feature=player_detailpage#t=6523 (bad throw)
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvwA18PfGF0&feature=player_detailpage#t=6188 (bad throw)
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsKLduRCXx4&feature=player_embedded#t=46
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsKLduRCXx4&feature=player_embedded#t=72
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsKLduRCXx4&feature=player_embedded#t=291
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8090r5G4msU&feature=player_detailpage#t=3713
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8090r5G4msU&feature=player_detailpage#t=4721
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8090r5G4msU&feature=player_detailpage#t=4744 (PBU)
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIO9tWIZcjs&feature=player_detailpage#t=0
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGDNcOSc5v4&feature=player_embedded#t=102 (PBU)
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilm2Z3SC10o&feature=player_detailpage#t=1669
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1c_zgRb7Ho&feature=player_detailpage#t=3391
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1c_zgRb7Ho&feature=player_detailpage#t=6066
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a8fSWJpGvCA#t=1562
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a8fSWJpGvCA#t=2922 (bad throw)
    2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=a8fSWJpGvCA#t=9182
    2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2qs3BR1tpQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=104
    2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=wnUTKphVxAQ#t=249
    2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=SwcqRuc-BsY#t=140
     
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  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson (Class: 2015)

    I am usually skeptical of pass rushers that are as small as Beasley (6'3" & 235 lbs). But as I have been watching Beasley play for what seems like a couple of years now, the thing that has always impressed me about him is how physical he is able to be with offensive linemen despite his size deficiency. That keeps him in the game and allows us to consider him a legitimate pass rush prospect for the NFL.

    His top asset is obvious and that is his pure explosiveness and mobility. You generally won't be able to cut him off on the back side of run plays. He can easily stay in front of the linemen as he tries to reach Beasley's front shoulder.

    When you get to a passing situation against Beasley, you're going to have a tough go. If you set to the outside and he steps inside of you, just about your only hope would be the guard picking him up. But if he's occupied, your quarterback is going to have pressure in his face pretty quickly. On the other hand, if you don't overset to the outside and he goes on an outside speed rush, he can and will get around you and step back to the quarterback. If you start oversetting to the outside to defend this, that's when he can hurt you with inside counters. It's a vicious cycle with him.

    But all of this applies to passing situations because he's a lot less effective when the offense is on schedule. The size is keeping him from being particularly effective on those downs, even though his lower body explosiveness makes him solid on these plays. If you're able to stay on schedule like Florida State did when they played Clemson a year ago, that's when you get FSU fans crowing that Cameron Erving "shut down" Vic Beasley.

    But the only time I've seen him really have trouble being effective when he's got a healthy mix of opportunities, and this doesn't apply to 2014 by the way because the only player he's faced thus far is Georgia's John Theus whom he abused in pass rush situations, is when he's facing a tackle with an unusual frame like Morgan Moses. Theus is tall but he doesn't have long arms. It would have been interesting to see Beasley matched up on Cornelius Lucas of Kansas State or JaWuan James of Tennessee before they graduated, as those two also have particularly big wingspans.

    He's a player that commands a lot of attention at the college level and Clemson does a good job schematically taking advantage of that attention by having him unselfishly drop back into coverage so as to create overload opportunities, or stunt inside to occupy multiple blockers while a blitzer screams in from the outside. This is why I think at times people watching him get a little frustrated that he's not doing anything in pass rush. But that's ultimately the reason why.

    He easily has the mobility and skills to move to a linebacker position.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCFkiUIQ6mo&feature=player_embedded
     
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  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska (Class: 2015)

    This is probably my favorite tailback in the class to watch thus far.

    Two things stand out for Abdullah and that is his versatility and his instincts. They're really connected, though.

    The versatility I am talking about isn't necessarily about the passing game. He's demonstrated the ability to catch passes and be dangerous that way (26 catches for 232 yards and 2 TDs in 2013), but the versatility I am talking about is his ability to be dangerous on different kinds of run plays. He's a natural at hiding behind and using his blockers on power plays. But he's also extremely quick to identify threats and pick his holes in the backfield on zone plays. He's also got the pure open field cutting ability and acceleration to take plays outside on outside zone or counters. Whatever you want to run, he can run it.

    As for the ball skills, if you watch him enough you know that's not in question. He had a 9 yard catch against FAU last weekend but he also had a much longer screen catch that was called back on penalty. I know that's just a screen but the quarterback threw the ball high and he had to leap up to get it, and that's pretty savvy and shows quick reactions considering how short the pass is. There was another option toss play where the quarterback waited far too long to toss the ball to him on the option and then tossed it inaccurately, and Abdullah had to stab one hand out and secure it. Those are all natural ball skills. You can check off the box. Most of being dangerous in the passing game is about your quickness and open field running skills.

    There's just not much he doesn't have. He's very fast, he makes people miss and breaks arm tackles, he has incredible vision in the backfield, has great natural born running back instincts, can catch the ball, can lower his shoulder when he sees the need, is able to make cuts others can't, and he's also got a little bit of a knack for knowing when he needs to take (or deliver) a hit and when he doesn't really need to.

    If they get him into the Sports Science testing warehouse I'd like to see some angle measures of his cutting ability because I bet it's some of the best they've seen.

    The only things that could make you a little uneasy on him are blocking and size. He's 5'9" and 195 lbs which is a decent enough build but you would like to see a guy a little heavier. What little blocking I've seen from him has been effective but I don't think you see it that often and so coaches will want to get him into practices to see if he can do it, especially at that size.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmvIlcHUhHg&feature=player_embedded
     
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  23. MiamiDolphin618

    MiamiDolphin618 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Good timing with Abdullah. He had an absolutely ridiculous RAC for the GW touchdown today. Broke several tackles and showed the ability to run away from an entire defense. He's a very very talented guy.

    Also Shaq Thompson showing off his ridiculous athleticism by playing a little RB today and housing like a 50 yard TD or something stupid. There are a few LBs I like this year…he's definitely up there, and I think he is just about as ideal of a fit you could as for as a WLB
     
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  24. PerfectTeam

    PerfectTeam Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A combination of Thompson and Abdullah in the draft would have be awesome. Depending on how Moreno does, a two or three headed backfield of Moreno, Miller and Abdullah would be amazing. Adding Thompson to the LB corp would be a huge athleticism and coverage upgrade.
     
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  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    DE/OLB Markus Golden, Missouri (Class: 2015)

    I was such a big fan of OT JaWuan James at Tennessee for multiple years that it had to catch my eye when I saw a Missouri pass rusher not named Kony Ealy or Michael Sam giving James a hell of a hard time blocking him in pass rush. When you've been talking up a guy for 12 to 18 months and suddenly he's being beaten by Missouri's third or fourth defensive end, you tend to want to take a closer look.

    The name of Markus Golden's game is primarily explosiveness and mobility. He's got some strength to him. He handles his own pretty well. He converted speed to power against James as I recall and knocked him on his butt.

    The primary issue with Golden is his size and frame. He does not have an especially big wing span for his 6'3" & 260 lbs listed size (which is probably more like 6'2" & 250 lbs). He also does not necessarily show a ton of polish or effective hand use.

    However, against Toledo he did exhibit a lot of mental presence of mind as he quickly discovered the Toledo quarterbacks tells, which enabled him to get a feel for and jump the snap on a consistent basis.

    In all likelihood I think Golden will have to convert to a linebacker position at the next level and that alone probably sets a ceiling for his draft stock. However, he absolutely has the wheels and C.O.D. skills to transition that way, and if his ability to adjust to Toledo's cadence and snap tendencies in-game are any indication, he may be an instinctive player that way as well.

    [video=youtube;gGAZ_9tXQ8s]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGAZ_9tXQ8s&feature=player_embedded[/video]
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    DE Shane Ray, Missouri (Class: 2016)

    Shane Ray was the other defensive end that rotated with Markus Golden behind the starters Michael Sam and Kony Ealy last year. He was not quite as productive as Golden, however from what I have seen he may be the guy you want to pay more attention to for the 2015 NFL Draft.

    It seems pretty clear that Shane Ray has a bigger frame than that of Golden. The listings say that Golden is 6'3" & 260 lbs while Shane Ray is 6'3" & 245 lbs. I truly doubt that. I think Golden is closer to 6'2" & 250 lbs while Ray is probably a full 6'3" (possibly a shade over) and 260 lbs. NFL Draft Scout says Golden is 6024 and Ray is 6026. I would also be surprised if that were accurate.

    Either way, on the field, looking at the two players and their frame, it's clear that Shane Ray has a bigger frame. He uses it well.

    He has nearly the same explosiveness as Markus Golden. He does not have quite the same flexibility or C.O.D. skills. However, he is clearly a lot stronger than Golden, and able to handle himself in situations where Golden gets overwhelmed. He also uses his longer arms and hands much more powerfully and effectively than Golden. He's active with his hand use and very effective.

    The thing I am left wondering about with respect to Shane Ray is whether he can bend the edge around the tackle's outside shoulder. Does he have the flexibility? I am not saying he can't, I am just saying it's an area for further study.

    Really I would just watch the Golden video and look for #56 at right end opposite Golden.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't think D'haquille Williams is another Cordarrelle Patterson yet, because it is too early to make such claims...but I'll be damned if he doesn't remind me of him.

    Number one JUCO prospect that has deceptive size (6'2" & 216 lbs) suddenly becomes an after-catch dynamo running simplified routes in the SEC? Sound familiar?
     
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  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    OLB Alani Fua, BYU (Class: 2015)

    (to be filled out later)

    Ever since I took a closer look at BYU's draftable prospects as a favor for a friend who was going to be at the UConn-BYU game, Fua has had my eye. He's a real tall drink of water at outside linebacker and he moves really, really well. He's not too heavy. From what I can tell between pass rushing, blitzing, change of direction, pursuit and coverage there's nothing the guy doesn't do at a pretty good skill level. But he doesn't necessarily excel at one thing that makes you believe he's a high-impact guy, either. The biggest weakness I've seen thus far is sometimes his tackling is off like he needs to get stronger and/or work on his hands in tackling.

    From what I can see he had a hell of a game against Texas. The BYU highlight film is filled with his exploits on defense. Looks to me like Bronson Kaufusi sat out much of the game.
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    QB Taysom Hill, BYU (Class: 2016)

    Could be the very best quarterback prospect in the 2015 NFL Draft, if he comes out. Depending on who else comes out.

    The arm talent and throwing ability on him is being severely underrated. Spins a VERY good ball with a short, compact and quick delivery. Also shows VERY good touch when the situation calls for it. Can throw with pinpoint ball placement with ANY leverage, off his back foot, on the run, etc. His ability to execute in a quarterback movement-based offense is spectacular. Great feet. The accuracy in 2014 thus far has been stellar, but there's more to be dug into here because his completion percentage in 2013 was not good. Must discover why.

    And he's probably got about the same combination of elusiveness and power in his running as Tim Tebow did. Which is to say, he's not Cam Newton, but extremely impressive. Best of all he shows the tendency to give himself up and avoid contact when he knows it's not worth it to be physical. This is a quality which only Cam Newton had because only Newton had the physical strength to make it a tough choice whether to use that size and strength for gains on the football field, or whether to give himself up and save his body. So far I've seen the same knack for making good choices that way from Taysom Hill.

    The worst you can say right now through two games against Connecticut and Texas is you'd like to see him throw in rhythm a little bit more. He does it a fair amount, especially checkdowns to the backs in perfect rhythm, as well as things like slants. But sometimes he holds the football a little long and that necessitates his scrambles. Just something to keep an eye on.

    I'm fairly floored right now. Didn't realize he was this good, had never done a dive into his tape before until today.

    Update 9/19/2014: If you really watch the Texas-BYU game, for about 33 minutes you'll come away frustrated with the BYU offense but it's not because of Taysom Hill. It's because the OL is getting absolutely thrashed by the Texas defensive front.

    There are route concepts that are the correct ones to work given the play designs and the coverage, and Taysom keeps trying to work those route concepts only to be interrupted by defensive line pressure before he can get it open and throw. The pressure is not coming from blitzes but just defensive pass rushers beating the tar out of the BYU offensive line, inside and outside.

    Really the only thing he could do to challenge them was use his scrambling ability. Texas dared their defensive line to keep a contain on him that way, and they often did. But when they didn't, they paid for it. He had a hell of a touchdown run in the first half that was called back by a hold on a wide receiver. On that run he stiff-armed a defensive back straight to the ground on his way to the end zone. Then toward the beginning of the third quarter, that is when Taysom broke the game open with another big touchdown run. This one stood. The defensive backs didn't have their backs turned to Hill, they were eyeballing him, but he beat them anyway as he broke through the secondary and leaped completely over a would-be tackler.

    I think after those two runs, that's when he could get the running game going because the read-option looks were getting the linebackers and safeties flowing the direction that Taysom Hill would be running if he kept, and this emptied out the second level for the tailback on occasions when the offensive line managed to create a crease. This is what happened on a touchdown run by Jamaal Williams in the third quarter.

    He got his next touchdown with just brute force on a couple of designed runs. And once Texas had to start committing more people to the front to try and bottle him up, and simultaneously the secondary had to make sure they keep their eyes on him in case he busts loose, things loosened up more for the receivers. An open slant in the red zone is how they got in position to punch the ball in from half a yard out on the next touchdown.

    There's bad stuff there as well. There were definitely times he chose to wait for longer concepts to come open when there were shorter route concepts he could have been hitting. One of those times he ended up sacked and fumbled the ball. Sometimes his throws were off.

    I think my conclusion on him would have to be that he's not quite there yet to be considered a high draft prospect. He's got the arm, release, definitely threatens the hell out of a defense with his legs and physicality, has good sense for pressure, and even has good accuracy and ball placement most of the time. But there's some downfield inaccuracy he needs to clean up and he needs to really tighten up his concepts of how to distribute the ball quickly to the defense's weakest point.
     
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  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    RB Kenneth Dixon, Lousiana Tech (Class: 2016)

    I have been waiting for two years to be able to put Kenneth Dixon up on the board and really evaluate him as a draft prospect. That's not an exaggeration. He came on the scene as a true freshman in 2012 and ran 200 times for 1194 yards with 27 touchdowns. Skip Holtz took over as head coach in 2013, and he probably took to destroying the La Tech program much as he did the USF program, and so it did not surprise me that Dixon's numbers dipped to only 917 yards and 4 touchdowns on 151 runs. But this year through three games he is already back to 301 yards and 3 touchdowns on 47 carries. He also scored on a catch to make 4 touchdowns for the year.

    At 5'10" & 212 lbs he has a pretty close to ideal build, though the NFL would ultimately like to see 220+ lbs guys. I've mentioned Ameer Abduallah before and I love him dearly but overcoming size concerns will be the big challenge for him, whereas a Kenneth Dixon will draw fewer concerns that way.

    Evaluating this position is not rocket science. Dixon has a great blend of speed, elusiveness, physicality and aggressive temperament, the ability to make people miss and to physically break through tackle attempts, and as a bonus he's developed into a pretty good blocker. He can clearly catch the football and even runs routes from the line of scrimmage.

    In the video below note his 99 yard touchdown run. Watch him hit a seam and then render the entire UL-Lafayette defense helpless as not a single one of them could even gain ground on him. Same thing happens again in the fourth quarter as he turns the corner and good angles suddenly turn into bad angles.

    [video=youtube;HvLNl6MjQXY]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvLNl6MjQXY&feature=player_embedded[/video]
     
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  31. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    Not 2015, but this true freshman Cannon from Baylor looks like the next Moss/Julio/Dez/Patterson type....wow
     
  32. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Not a prospect for this year but Kendall Fuller looked real good against Ohio State.
     
  33. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Mike Davis vs. Todd Gurley today...juicy. Really like Davis' game.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Someone I'm sure will criticize Rakeem Cato's 58% completion without accounting for his absurd 18.3 yards per completion & 10.6 yards per attempt.

    This latest game against Ohio (who I believe had beaten Marshall a few consecutive times before Marshall blew them out this weekend) will have to be among the games capped on Draft Breakdown.
     
  35. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    What do you think of trading the 2015 1st for a 2016 1st, 2015 2nd, and then trading the 2nd of a future 2nd, plus 2015 4th. You come out of the draft with a 2016 1st, 2016 2nd, and 2015 4th.

    You then wait year after year until you find the right opportunity to get the can't miss guy that you really want.
     
  36. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    the next dimension
    Just curious to know, which qb coming out would be ideal for a Gus Malzahn offense?
     
  37. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Malzahn runs spread option, so a running QB who can throw, think Kaepernick.


    We need to look at Connor Cook. I have not made up my mind yet, but he is someone we should look into. He is athletic enough, and is training in a good system.

    Think of this, in 2008 Michigan State had Cousins, Hoyer and Foles on the team. If there is a good QB on Mich State, chances are he'll be good.
     
  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Superficially I'm sure many will believe that Gus Malzahn requires an athletic runner at the position.

    I'm not so sure. He might like that, but ANY coach would like their quarterback to be able to add that dimension of being able to hurt a defense with his legs.

    Gus Malzahn set college football records for offense at Tulsa when he had David Johnson and Paul Smith at quarterback. Smith passed for 5065 yards and 47 TDs in 2007 while running for 119 yards and 13 more TDs. David Johnson threw for 4059 yards and 46 TDs, ran for 186 yards and 15 more TDs.

    Paul Smith was 6'1" & 208 lbs and ran a 4.95 at the Combine. David Johnson was 6'2" & 219 lbs, ran 4.94 at his Pro Day.

    More contemporarily, you look at the Auburn offense and how they're able to go between Nick Marshall who is obviously a big runner but whose passing skills are a bit suspect, and then Jeremy Johnson who is an excellent passing prospect but whose running skills are suspect. Marshall runs a 4.48 where Johnson runs a 4.86. Right now I think it's been shown that Marshall operates the offense a little better but that's just because he's been the one doing it all last year including on their run at the championship. If they were to go with Johnson full time, I'm sure it would be only a matter of time before they're fully transitioned to his skill set and they'd be humming once again.

    This is why Malzahn is such an attractive name for a head coaching job. He can fit the offense around the talent, so long as they have some basic physical skills and ability to execute.

    I'm really not sure I see a quarterback that you can say should NOT be running Gus Malzahn's offense. Maybe Sean Mannion. I think it's just a matter of finding a guy with a compelling skill set that Malzahn can use.

    Taysom Hill continues to intrigue me even though I don't think he necessarily had a great game against Houston this weekend. Hell of an arm, quick compact delivery, really good body movement and execution type of player, and he's as terrific a runner as Tim Tebow used to be. I guess the issue with him is accuracy, which you never like to see on a quarterback. But I need to do a deeper dive before I figure out what that is all about.

    Rakeem Cato is an interesting option as well.

    As is Kevin Hogan.

    Of course Marcus Mariota will likely be held up as the prototype for what Malzahn will want, and for good reason.

    Dak Prescott is an interesting dual threat type as well.

    I also like Connor Cook.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Doc Holliday also tells the media...he's been around Tim Tebow at Florida. He's been around Philip Rivers at NC State. Rakeem Cato is the most competitive guy he's ever coached. Not that he's better, but he's the most competitive. And FWIW, Holliday was also at West Virginia for Pat White's final year.

    So there's that.
     

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