Right. And Tannehill did it all through adversity, having by far the worst offensive line of the previous 16 QB's since Marino's retirement. And absolutely the trashiest run game since 2004. Fact is, Tannehill is the reason this team even won 8 games. He carried the offense on his shoulders all season. While those final two games were offensive stinkers, it's not as though everyone else on offense showed up and he failed to deliver. The responsibility of those losses spreads wide. He needs to fix the long ball and protect the football better. If he can do those two things, or even one of them, he's taking his game to the next level. Both are legitimate question marks, but I'm hopeful he can and will improve as long as the offensive line plays stronger run blocking and in pass protection. Honestly, I see offensive line's issues being a far bigger question mark than Tannehill going into 2014.
Well we don't really need numbers to tell us Ryan Tannehill is off to a pretty lousy start to the 2014 season. But here's some things to note: His TD/INT ratio is a surprisingly good 2.0 (4/2). I think the number that really points to the failure thus far is the terrible 5.0 Yards/Attempt. This points to the continued failures on deep pass attempts. He's not making crippling mistakes at this point, but the production just isn't there. We need more than just over 200 yards and 1.3 TDs / game. And if anyone puts any stock in ESPN's QBR, that stands at 25.2 I believe. But as the Matt Moore threads rage on, it's important to keep in mind that the numbers are not terrible. If he can keep the TD/INT ratio in that neighborhood and improve yards / attempt the wins should come.
The offense has plenty of issues. Beyond Ryan's own problems with feeling pressure and moving to avoid it, he's being badly hurt by the fact that the WRs simply get absolutely no seperation. I don't know exactly what Buffalo does on defense to stick a defender like glue on every single position player at all times, but KC apparently copied it this week. I don't know what changes can be made, but they need to figure them out ASAP or every single team that we play is just going to do the exact same thing. Ryan isn't making stupid throws into the coverage - his two picks were on a bad deep throw to Wallace in week one and the last play of the game in desperation against Buffalo - but its resulting in his ugly completion percentage, the high number of sacks, and the crazy-low yards per attempt.
MB, the thing is, 5.0 YPA is absolutely awful. Dreadfully bad. However, there's a lot of historical evidence that YPA isn't really a reflection of the QB, but rather of the offense as a whole. YPA for individual quarterbacks can vary significantly between offensive systems and even year to year. I think what we are seeing now is not so much a function of Tannehill suddenly becoming a terrible QB, but rather that the entire pass offense just isn't working well. My personal belief is that the team needs to go vertical more and stop with the short stuff. DJ is right on the money when he says that the Tannehill needs to use his legs more, too. This team can't win games trying to dink and dunk like the Patriots. Not built for it and RT isn't TB.
I would love to see ryan just once pull the ball back when his read is blanketed and reshift everything.
All it takes is 2-3 decisive 'tuck it and run' moments a game. Pick up 7 yards and slide; it could completely change his game. It's a big part of what makes Colin Kaepernick so effective, IMO, even though Colin Kaepernick has serious deficiencies as a passer.
Double fist pumper.. "Decisive tuck and run moments"....been preaching for so long I'm tired. Steve young swears by those tuck and runs...early and often, he used to say if they didn't respect his legs he will beat them with them.. Ryans trigger needs Viagra.
After today's game a 2.0 TD/INT (10/5) ratio. It's been an up and down season for Tannehill thus far, but if he can keep these trends moving in the right direction, he will be in business.
Thread updated with actuals. Here they are for people who don't feel like going back to look at OP - TDs 2012: 12 2013: 24 2014 Goal: 29 2014 Stretch Goal: 35 2014 ACTUAL: 27 TD/INT Ratio 2012: 0.92 2013: 1.41 2014 Goal: 1.60 2014 Stretch Goal: 2.00 2014 ACTUAL: 2.25 Completion % 2012: 58.3% 2013: 60.4% 2014 Goal: 63.0% 2014 Stretch Goal: 65.0% 2014 ACTUAL: 66.4% Yards / Attempt 2012: 6.8 2013: 6.7 2014 Goal: 7.2 2014 Stretch Goal: 7.5 2014 ACTUAL: 6.9 Adjusted Yards / Attempt 2012: 6.1 2013: 6.2 2014 Goal: 6.8 2014 Stretch Goal: 7.3 2014 ACTUAL: 6.9 Passer Rating 2012: 76 2013: 81.7 2014 Goal: 85 2014 Stretch Goal: 90 2014 ACTUAL: 92.8 Improvement in every statistical category tracked. Hit the stretch goals in several. Missed TD goal by a couple. Not surprisingly, Y/A goal was missed, while AY/A was met. If you had showed me these numbers at beginning of season I would have guessed Miami should have been in the playoffs. Depressing that this improvement didn't equate to a better record. But it's a reason to be optimistic going forward.
Note: QBR wasn't updated on Pro Football Reference, but since everyone seems to hate that one anyway I think we can just do away with it going forward...
Great stuff MonstBlitz. I do think the Dolphins have their franchise quarterback at this point. Now time to move on to surrounding him with better talent.
I think with what we have seen we can reasonably assume if Miami continues to build the offensive line, Tannehill's performance will continue to improve.
Between 2004 and 1014, the average win percentage for QBs whose ratings fell within the range where Ryan Tannehill finished in 2013 (79.2 to 84.2) is 50%, or about an 8-8 record. During the same period, the average win percentage for QBs whose ratings fell within the range where Ryan Tannehill finished in 2014 (90.5 to 95.5) is 61%, or about a 10-6 record. So on average, his improvement in QB rating between 2013 and 2014 is associated with about two wins in a regular season on average. Additionally, the correlation between Pro Bowl players per team and win percentage in the NFL in 2014 is 0.77, and the correlation between AP All-Pro first- or second-team players and win percentage is 0.76. So I think it's clear that if you continue to surround Ryan Tannehill with the necessary talent, 10-6 -- a playoff record -- becomes the Dolphins' "floor" as a team, and it's "ceiling" of course will be defined by how much talent with which it can surround Ryan Tannehill. He's doing his part, however, to give the Dolphins a floor that's associated with a playoff-caliber record at this point.
