Week Six Storylines - GB@MIA

Green Bay and Miami are fresh off of high-scoring wins, and longer-than-normal rests, both looking for a benchmark. Pundits are favoring the Packers, however looking at the footage and the stats, we match up very well with Green Bay. Let's dig in and see what specifics we can delve into and conjecture what we may. My guess is that after the game, we will celebrating/rueing one of the following story lines:

1. We dominate the trenches. There's only one mismatch in this game, and it's huge: our top five rushing offense against their league worst rushing defense. And yes, they are terrible: 163 yards/game (#32), 815 total yards (#32), 178 attempts against (#32), and 4.6 y/a (8th worst). The Packers have allowed 20 rushes of 10 + yards (#30), which is especially awful considering they have only stuffed 8 rushes for no/negative gain. On the other hand, we have a dominant run game averaging 5 yards a carry (#3) and 142.3 yards/game (#5). We already have 17 rushes for 10+ yards, which is ranked #8 despite having a bye already. We also lead the league in 32 rushing first downs. Watching the Packers, the are weakest defending runs straight up the middle, which is our strength. Fundamentally, they have trouble wrapping up. Every rush gains an extra yard against the Packers. This is the ideal type of defense for a healthy Knowshon to return against, dragging a bunch of punchless defenders. Charles Clay and Jarvis Landry should be able to use their hard-to-tackle ability to get the most against this defense. The GB pass rush is alright. Clay Matthews is not a superstar this year, and Julius Peppers is doing well. Miami's OTs should maintain their high level of play. There is not much of an interior pass rush, which is our Achilles heel, so Ryan should have time. (Actually, don't see either team's pass rush taking over.)

The Packer's run game isn't that special; it's not creative, quick or reliably effective. They average 4.0 yards/attempt and 86.9 yards/game. (We allow 3.8 y/p (#3) 107 yards/game (#12).) Even though Eddie Lacy looked good against the Vikings, he really had been poor up until that point. Lacy, Starks and Kuhn are a big, lumbering group of hippos that aren't going to wiggle for any yards inside, and are not fast enough to get to the edge. When Lacy gets a head of steam he's a locomotive, and Randall Cobb might be their perfect secret weapon, but I think our swarming defense will bottle them up. GB will discover why our defense leads the NFL by allowing only 4.7 yards/play. Overall, our Oline is a lot better than their DLine, and our DLine is slightly better than their OLine, so it wouldn't be surprising to see us able to bully them around.

2. Aaron Rodgers v. Ryan Tannehill. While we may have the better team, this may come down to the best player on the field. Will Aaron Rogers win this game... or will Ryan Tannehil lose it? That seems to be the ubiquitous sentiment in the back of every Dolfan's mind as we approach kickoff. That fear you feel is completely astute because Aaron Is probably the third best QB in football so far this year: #1 TD%, #2 INT %, 9.2 ay/a (#2), #2 Rating, & #3 QBR. He is leading an offense that is #1 in points/play, 41.45% of passes go for a first down (#3), scoring on 45.1% of their drives (#3). He's a master of the clutch play, he's jaw dropping, he moves around a pocket better than anyone, and any time he extends a play it always ends up huge - and have you see his eyes! You've got to acquiesce and realize he's going to get his 65% accuracy and 250 yards and 2 TDs, there's nothing you can really do about that. However, can you prevent him from having an awesome game with 70% 300y 3 TDs? I think we can; we are a team suited better than most to play superstar QBs, with our pressure packages and disciplined secondary. Still, the biggest variable within this puzzle is Ryan Tannehill, who's level of play is most accurately predicted by a coin flip. If we see dumb RT17 we will lose, but if he has a great game it's an easy A.

3. Different ways of attacking similar pass defenses. Miami and GB have very similar pass defenses. It's a keep-everything-in-front-of-you, allow the little stuff but don't give up the big stuff, style of play. And the results are equally satisfactory. Miami Pass D is allowing 5.3 yards/attempt (#1) and GB 5.6 y/a (#4), MIA 9.9 yards/catch (#1) and GB 10.8 y/c (#10), MIA 228 yards/game (#8) and GB 220 y/g (#6), MIA 60% passes complete and GB 59%, both are in the top ten of QB rating allowed. GB has really excelled with their 7 INTs v 5 passing TDs allowed, wow. Both are amongst the top ten allowing an average of 5.6 yards after the catch allowed. They are good in coverage and poor in tackling. The Dolphins might be best served by scheming quick throws to players in space and play to their weakness. We seem to love them anyway. The Packers have a passing game that conversely utilizes very little YAC (5.3 #24) (and those numbers are skewed upwards by a few Jordy Nelson bombs). Watching their games it seems like they are always being tackled as soon as they catch the ball. (It actually seems like Brain Hartline has been auditioning for the Packers his whole career.) However, they are throwing the ball an average of 2.1 yards further in the air than we are. It will be interesting to see which team's offensive methodology will reap better results. With two different approaches to similar secondaries (YAC v YATC), one coach's gameplan may blow the other out of the water. Or these top ten pass defenses could end up drawing, tempering the influence of the QB play. Hopefully.

4. Who's pace will we play at? Both teams are prone to quicker, shorter drives, so we should not see many ten minute or ten-play drives (MIA averages 49 yards/drive (#31) and GB 53 y/d (#28). Miami's can partially be explained the second best starting field position in football.) The Dolphins went into the bye amongst the league leaders in total and offensive play counts. In fact, MIA's 278 offensive plays in 4 games is more than GB's 225 plays in 5 games. Tannehill has 155 pass attempts to Rodgers' 147, wow. The Dolphins are are also +17 in first down differential (#5), whereas the Packers are -24 (#28). The Pack is also near the bottom with a -62 yards/game differential, averaging only 309.2 yards a game and allowing 371. (We average 354.3 for and 322.3 against.) One of the reasons we are doing so well is that we've only had five 3-and-outs so far this year, and that 9.62% is an NFL-best. We are also one of the best teams on first down, averaging 7.02 yards/rush (#4) and an overall 6.85 yard/play (#7).

Conversely, if the Pack forces us to play a slow paced, plodding game, where plays are hard to come by, that should play right into their hands because they are incredibly opportunistic with what they get. While we produce more, they are money with anything involving scoring. Aaron Rodger's (8 TDs/1 INT) ratio is amazing, as is his clutch ability to play lights out in the redzone (102.8 rating), 4th quarter (107.8), and against the blitz (129.7 rating 5 TDs/0 INTs). They have also scored an amazing NFL best 50 points off of turnovers, and their +31 differential is also #1. (We have scored 30 off of turnovers, but our defense has been especially stout only allowing 10 points from giveaways, ranking us #4 in differential.) They are also better on third down, converting 45.5% (#10). (Lucky for us they are bad at defending 3rd Down - 48.6% #29.)

They are susceptible to quick plays. They aren't the fastest or most athletic defense, instead relying on being in the right spot to make plays, well coached. So quick snapping when they aren't set is important. On offense, they are running these further routes, so making Rodgers throw quickly is also imperative. So if we can force them to play an up-tempo game, we should be in the driver's seat - especially if their defense wilts in the late sun against our running. Whoever's pace trumps the other may have a huge outcome in the game. We could very well see the Dolphins with more yards, plays, first downs, and TOP, and still have less points depending how the ball bounces. It will be interesting to see the difference between one of the best first down teams and best third down teams collide.

5. Miscellaneous Storylines. Buck some trends, because someone has to score first. Both these teams have gotten used to coming from behind early, and it's more important for the Dolphins not to find themselves in a hole. Maybe it's best to not defer this week, Joe, otherwise your defense must make an early stop. Speaking of, Coach Philbin (and Darryn Colledge) returns to GB, and if this doesn't motivate fire in the man, then nothing will. I'd think Joe would have more familiarity with the Packers than vice versa, so hopefully we can obtain a coaching advantage. The Packers can be fooled, movement on offense and delayed blitzes on defense give them a little trouble. Returning players are also a huge story this week. Who will have the best game? Pouncey and Moreno are set to return against the perfect opponent. Against a poor DLine this week, will we see a Top Five Oline? (I don't think theres ever been a guard-performance I'll watch more excitedly than this one upcoming.) Koa Misi has to be a upgrade, but the Pack run an offense where Reshad Jones should have more opportunity for an impact. Honestly this game rests in the hands of our secondary; if they can play how they've played the last two years we will win.

Prediction We can't let Aaron Rodgers be the number one storyline, someone else has to step up. Maybe it's Reshad Jones, or Cameron Wake has one of his big days, or Moreno goes nuts. Aaron gets his three touchdowns, and the Pack gets an INT and a fumble. The Dolphins run like crazy and Ryan plays good enough, and I just think we are too much stronger on both lines to lose this game. It goes into halftime low and close, playing the Packer's style of football, but second half fireworks play to our advantage. I trust our secondary.
Miami 33, Green Bay 27

 

Yes, on a per play/attempt basis, we are the best. But that doesn't take into account the quantity of plays/attempts throughout the game. Just like our offense plays more snaps than most other teams, so does our defense. (I think our play count differential is just one.) So in total yards/game, we aren't number one and that's how most tallies are taken in traditional stats. FWIW, our 3.8 rushing yards/attempt is #8. However, we've given up 24.3 points/game so we are obviously not the best defense in football.

It highlights the difference between us and the Packers, we squander our surplus while they take advantage of what they muster. Let's just not give them the opportunity.

 

Our defense is playing a lot more snaps comparatively than other defenses. So a defense that gives up 100 yards in fifty snaps is ranked ahead of a defense that gives up 101 yards in seventy snaps, even though the per-snap average says the opposite.

But feel free to call us the best, and perhaps playing a team like the Packers who don't run a lot of snaps plays to our advantage.

 

A low per/attempt and a high play count may also be indicative of a defense that has trouble getting off the field. That's probably why overall stats use game-wide sample sizes.