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A Big Reason the Packers Won Today

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dolphans Unite!, Oct 12, 2014.

  1. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    If we look here:

    http://live.advancednflstats.com/afa/index.php/home/tools/live-wp-graph/index.php?gameid1=2014101204

    ...we see the Dolphins were 91% likely to win the game today following the sack of Ryan Tannehill at the 3:15 mark in the 4th quarter. Following the punt that put the Packers on their own 40 yard line with 2:04 to play, the Dolphins were 62% likely to win.

    From there, Aaron Rodgers engineered a drive that catapulted Green Bay from being only 38% likely to win with just over two minutes to play, to winning the game outright. During that drive, Olivier Vernon's sack of Rodgers on the Miami 48 yard line made the Dolphins 86% likely to win, with only 1:44 left to play. However, following that, the plays made by Rodgers ultimately made the Packers 100% likely to win, obviously.

    What's astounding is that Rodgers's win probability added, or WPA, for the game was 0.93, with the maximum figure being 1.00. He nearly singlehandedly gave his team a one hundred percent chance of winning.

    If we look here:

    http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...players/index.php?year=2013&pos=QB&season=all

    ...we see that last year's leaders in the league had a WPA per game in the 0.35 range. A single-game WPA of 0.93 is almost unheard of, and it really illustrates just what Rodgers did during the final two minutes of the game today. He took a team fairly unlikely to win and essentially made it win.

    Now, this is not uncharacteristic of Rodgers. He's one of the best QBs of all time, and he led the league in 2013 and 2012 in WPA per game. In 2011 he was third in the league. In 2010 he was fourth. In 2009 he was fifth.

    So, rather than attribute today's loss to other factors, I think we should give serious consideration to the fact that we simply got outdueled in the clutch by a QB who is very good in the clutch.

    When you're a fan of a team, the tendency is to focus on your own team a great deal, and to therefore attribute the things that happens to it to things it does, rather than to what its opposing team does.

    I think in this case we need to focus in on what the Packers have that almost no other team does, and that is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game, and one who plays very well in the clutch.
     
  2. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's why, while I thought this game hurt, I'm not that pissed. That finish was top notch. Sometimes the other guy just wins. This time, the other guy is arguably the best QB in the game.
     
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  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Fascinating metrics and good points. Having said that, there are a lot of stats that support why we lose games and continue to be let down as fans.
     
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  4. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    And it's awfully easy to say that "if we would've done X, then that wouldn't have happened," but there is no evidence of that and there never will be. No one has any idea how the game would've turned out had certain things been done or not been done by the Dolphins. It's entirely possible that if the Dolphins had done things differently in some ways, it could've had no effect, or could've made things worse.
     
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  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    You and your passer rating spreadsheets...try watching a game.

    Yes Rodgers played great...but we certainly set it up for him, no matter what stats you try to fling out there.

    The reason that WPA may be almost unheard of, is because teams don't give them a free pass to do it...like we did. He took what we gave him...and we gave him a LOT.

    Not everything can be answered with passer rating and WPA...no matter how much you think it so.
     
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  6. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    I saw this thread on Finheaven. The OP concluded that because Davone Bess had a higher WPA than Calvin Johnson, he was a better playmaker.
     
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  7. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Actually we were set to 100% lose the game when we gave the ball back to Rodgers.

    Seriously we have seen it time in time again. You cannot give the ball back to a great team because you will lose. Team is no better off than it was 5-10 years ago. Its truly sad. Still need a head coach.
     
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  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Very true...because they don't have the clutch needed to put the players in the right position to succeed during crunch time...proven in spades today.

    I wonder if Marino threw something when the fake spike happened....
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    No matter what the stats say, Rodgers plays at an entirely different level than other QB's in the game. If it was Manning in that pocket, he was sacked 10 times today. If it was Rivers or Brees or almost anyone else, they'd gain 1-5 yards on each scramble or throw an incomplete pass. Despite us shutting down Rodgers over and over again, he was just too good to be denied.

    Does that make me happy? Hell no! I can live with it though.
     
  10. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    Actually despite giving the ball back to Rodgers, the Dolphins were 86% likely to win after Vernon sacked Rodgers, and a "roll of the dice" (i.e., random) event (a fumble recovery by the fumbling team) prevented that figure from going from 86% to about 98% in one fell swoop. What swung the Packers from being only 14% likely to win from there, to being 100% likely to win in the end, was Rodgers.
     
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  11. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    ...the main ones being those that illustrate how we continue to have a QB who has very little chance of competing with the likes of Rodgers on a consistent basis, as much as the game revolves around QB play.
     
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  12. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I think those are pretty cool stats.....to be honest, and yeh...Rogers is amazing.
     
  13. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    and there it is! Guess what, there's about 30 other teams in that same position as us, because Rodgers is one of the best in the game. Oh... sorry... you can get back to bashing our QB now since we all knew that's where this was ultimately going.

    The biggest reason the Packers won today, if you watched the game, was our own inability to control the game a the end with good, effective playcalling, and execution to run out the clock. Everyone knows if Rodgers got the ball back Green Bay would likely win. Everyone but our coaches, who really didnt seem very interested in calling effective plays to try and wind down the clock. Stats... pfft..
     
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  14. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Needed a long analytic post to tell us why they won. Lol
     
  15. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Your point would be valid if there weren't 20+ other QB's that are better than RTH.

    This loss wasn't all on him but you can't throw 2 INT's and expect to win football games. You can't miss wide open players on the goal line. You can't have a passer rating of 15 through half of a game.

    I don't think anyone here wants RTH to fail. We all need him to be a franchise QB if Miami is ever going to be good. The reality is he is not a franchise QB.
     
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  16. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It is much easier to swallow being beaten in the last 3 seconds by Rodgers, than Oakland's back up QB...

    I am not happy about the loss, but the way we started the game and played the first half, I did not think we would be winning the game with 3 seconds to go... and letting Rodgers have about 3 minutes to operate a comeback, was really my issue... You needed to put them away and getting a 1st down was a priority, but our coaching staff decided to not to win... and punted... I am sure non of the offensive guys approved of being conservative on that last O drive of the game...
     
  17. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    My point has nothing to do with Ryan Tannehill actually, aside from the OP's obvious desire to bash him in every thread eventually. It's only a matter of time before it comes out. We've been through this here with him before, just under a different name.

    My point had nothing to do with Tannehill, my point was that our coaching staff, failed to put us in a good position to win the game, all we really needed was a first down. Instead we were as stupid and as vanilla as we could be, and content to punt the ball and give the best QB in the game the opportunity to beat us.

    Again, that point, has nothing to do with Tannehill... he's irrelevant in this to me. When it mattered, in the second half, he did enough to put us in position to win, after a miserable start. It was our poor coaching, clock management, and playcalling that put the ball back into the hands of Aaron Rodgers to put the nail in the coffin. I get that the players didn't execute on that drive, but we didnt exactly put them in the best positions to succeed.
     
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  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's a common misconception....Tannehill doesn't compete against Rodgers or any other quarterback. In fact, Tannehill doesn't call the plays either, or have the luxury of second-guessing the coaches when they call a designed deep pass to Hartline (our slowest receiver). So while I agree with you that Tannehill has a lot of growing to do (or not do if we go another route), you can't blame the loss today on him.

    Tannehill played a bad first half and we were down by 3. Rodgers played an incredible first half and he was up by 3. In the 4th quarter, Rodgers outplayed Tannehill by a wide margin, yet we were up by 7. So you can't place this solely on a quarterback- there were many factors involved with this loss....including a Green Bay team that was simply better than us.
     
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  19. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    The QB head-to-head crap is kindergarten-ish at best, and it immediately discredits what somebody is saying when it's based on that myth.
     
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  20. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It was an across the board loss. The of really, really needed a 1st down that involved a couple of rushing plays. The ST can't give up a 15ish yard return on that punt. The first play, the D give up 11 yards on a rush that took almost no time off of the clock. Give up anything less than a first down and the clock is still running.
     
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  21. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The first play took it down to the 2 minute warning. That means the D should have been expecting it, but the clock wouldn't have been running, regardless.

    Finnegan deserves some horns for not protecting the boundary on the fake spike play, IMO.

    100% of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks who started at Sun Life today walked out with victories. That's an underrated stat.
     
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  22. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    Here's one big reason, do we really need to be 10+ yards off the line on a fake spike?

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol what kind of cushion is that
     
  24. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That was my single-most pissed off moment of the game...when your legend QB creates something, and you let it bite you in the ***, it's a fail from Philbin all the way down to the players. Had they played up, maybe he spikes it, maybe not, had he still thrown it, chance at a pick there.
     
  25. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We shouldn't let the coverage called overtake the responsibility of the cornerback on the play, IMO. Protect the boundary and make the tackle. Cover 3 vs. Cover 1 press or whatever isn't going to change what happens on that play if the corner doesn't make the play that is right there for him to make.
     
  26. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    I think Finnegan was just trying not to blow the tackle... lot harder to tackle cleanly when you have to close that much space.
     
  27. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If so, he was thinking too hard, IMO. He didn't have to tackle cleanly; just redirecting the guy for a teammate to tackle in bounds would have been enough.
     
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  28. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    I was actually mad at the Packers for running so much clock all the way down and not taking a timeout. They did the fake spike and let it run all the way down to 6 seconds. I mean it was like you have to give us time to run a couple more plays.
     
  29. huck1974

    huck1974 FU Gene Steratore

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    Biggest reason is the QB. He sucks
     
  30. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    RT had us winning the game, the d couldn't stop Rodgers on that last drive, even I saw the fake spike coming. We need coaching.
     
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  31. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    The drive where we were tied 10-10 and Rodgers made that throw for a first down was amazing.
     
  32. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    The Packers didn't have any timeouts to take.
     
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  33. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    I had thought we had one left.
     
  34. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    You did...in the form of Philbin.
     
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  35. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    I think he took that one because he thought you guys didn't have the right personnel in there. Your defense was gassed as well.
     
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  36. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    The Packers needed a TD to win, there's actually no reason NOT to give a big cushion. The problem is that Finnegan allowed te WR to get out of bounds. He actually jumped outside to force it to the field but then he either panicked or got to aggressive and let the guy around him. That's not on Coyle, Philbin or anyone else.

    You and I both know that if Finnegan was in press and allowed a TD there would be millions of posts about how he should have given a cushion ms kept the play in front of him at all costs.
     
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  37. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Thats how the game goes. You lose and whatever you did was wrong, so says the second guessers.
     
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  38. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Going man-to-man at the goal line against Rodgers is an awful idea. They scored like it was a practice or pick up game on that game winning TD, like it was the easiest thing in the world. We can hate on Wheeler but that was an awful scheme to be in. Lots of questionable decisions helped the Packers regardless of stats.
     
  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    nah man you don't give 11 yard cushions in the red zone..
     
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  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They did stop them, forced fumble and sack, then the coaches called time out, Dolphins beat them strait up, just didn't recover the fumble, they guy got beat recovered it, that ain't winning..should of won if it weren't for the coaches.
     

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