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Cool Calculator Tells You Impact Of Any Game On Playoff Chances

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Bpk, Oct 16, 2014.

  1. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-playoff-implications-of-every-game-for-every-nfl-team/

    Unfortunately it only shows this week's games. Guess they update it weekly.

    For example, though... there is a 6.1 % swing in our playoff chances depending on whether the Jets win tonight (helps us) or Pats win (hurts us).

    Even better, there's a 19 % swing for the Pats... so REALLY hoping they lose!


    Most importantly... it says we currently have a 15% chance of making the playoffs.
     
  2. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've been looking for a thread where I can say in all sincerity, I hope they both lose.
     
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  3. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Barring injury or collapse the Dolphins are pretty much in a race for the final playoff spot with Buffalo, Houston, KC, and whoever finishes 2nd in the North.
     
  4. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Less than 15% now :swimmer:
     
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  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    So if I'm interpreting it correctly then NE's winning this week has brought us down from 15.0% to 13.8%.

    Had the Jets pulled off a win, our odds would've increased to 19.8%.

    If Cincinnati wins the game vs. Indy, Baltimore wins vs. Atlanta, and Buffalo wins vs. Minnesota, then we're down to 12.3%.

    If Miami loses to Chicago on top of those outcomes, we're down to 7.9%.

    Right now the only one of those outcomes that is not favorited is Cincinnati coming out ahead of Indianapolis. If everything goes as it's favorited (Chicago 3.5 point favorites over Miami, Indy 3.0 point favorites over Cincy, Baltimore 7.0 point favorites over Atlanta, Buffalo 6.0 point favorites over Minnesota)...then Miami walks out of the weekend with 8.7% playoff chances.

    At that point we talk draft, right? Or do we detour to debating potential head coaches and THEN talk draft? Probably the latter.
     
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  6. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    When I think of this season I'll always remember 3rd and 9.

    Because that's when I gave up on this season.... right when Philbin did.
     
  7. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Gee..well there a 100 percent chance we know what you think is gonna happen this weekend...lol

    And yes..head coaching changes first..woulndt that impact our draft?
     
  8. Roll Tide

    Roll Tide New Member

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    It's going to be such an exciting off-season!
     
  9. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm so sick of being excited and hopeful during the off-season.
     
  10. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Well...thats cool...

    Once we win, we will have a slightly better then 20 percent chance of making the playoffs.

    You gotta think that makes a win the following week HUGE as far as playoff implications go...and its at Jacksonville.
     
  11. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Head Coaches first please....we have to go all in on Harbaugh's..I really feel that we have enough talent to compete at an extremely high level if we have Harbaugh..not to mention if we have another good off season like Hickey just had.
     
  12. ASOT

    ASOT New Member

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    I don't know if Ross the Clown will fire Philbin if he wins 7 or 8. I think we have to finish with 6 wins or less for him to be fired.
     
  13. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I take this with a huge grain of salt. Its like the metrics that show your % chances of winning during an NBA game or NFL game. They are interesting but can often be horribly wrong anyway.
     
  14. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    How can a probability be wrong?
     
  15. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    well...for example...

    Whats Indys probability that they make the playoffs right now?

    94%

    Denvers is 96%

    What happens if either team looses their starting QB to an injury?

    Probability only works if all things stay the same. If all the teams continue to play the way they do now.....yada yada yada....

    Only at week 7....the probability that all of those things staying the same....is pretty slim.
     
  16. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    No, probability inherently means there is a probability of those things happening, hence Denver having a 4% chance of not making the playoffs.
     
  17. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Ok...I get you...that makes sense.
     
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  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Probabilities shouldn't really be considered wrong...nor should they be considered holy writ. Impossible to incorporate every possible factor. They exist only to make simple prediction.
     
  19. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    at this point we talk about another QB & HC
     
  20. Phoenician Fan

    Phoenician Fan Well-Known Member

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    Maybe make a trade or two before the deadline and try to improve our power in the 2015 draft, or pickup a player at a position of need.

    For example: Trade Finnegan for a late round pick to a contending team with injuries at CB, giving the youngsters a chance develop. I'd do the same with Delmas but I'd expect a higher comp because of age and salary. Let Taylor and Aikens and Thomas get the playing time.
     

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