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Redzone Problems

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Oct 20, 2014.

  1. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    LOL this just isn't realistic. How exactly is Miami going to afford Julius Thomas? You want to draft a WR to replace Hartline and Gibson? Our starting WRs are Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry, and a rookie?
     
  2. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Avg passer rating in 2013: 84
    Avg passer rating in 2014: 90
     
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  3. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    Average amount of games played in 2013: 16

    Average amount of games played in 2014: 6.6875
     
  4. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Don't be so sure. They're going to have to pay Demariyus Thomas as well. There's a chance Julius tries to maximize his earnings after playing with Manning, like Decker.
     
  5. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Which of these is farfetched:

    Cut Hartline
    Cut Gibson
    Do not re-sign Damian Williams
    Pursuing Julius Thomas
    Re-upping Clay
    Moving up a few spots in the fourth round to draft Martavis Bryant

    This to me is more a long standing beef playing out rather than a legitimate criticism. I'm not saying the plan would work. I'm just saying none of that is particularly difficult to achieve outside of Julius Thomas.
     
  6. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    Depending on the rookie that can be a better group than what we have now. I forgot to mention that we'd still have Rishard Matthews.

    As for Julius Thomas we can afford him by wiping away all of the expensive dead weight on the team. Hell getting rid of Ellerbe and Finnegan alone clears 11 mil, you cut Hartline, Gibson and Garner as well, carry over the 8 mil we have now and that's 26 mil for 2015. It's pretty feasible.
     
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    You have more than enough passes thrown in 2014 to qualify as a significant sample size.
     
  8. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    That would make you wrong. And he wanted to also re up clay at cheaper or find a replacement. Basically cutting everything we have to pursue avenues that are not even 100% possible let alone do able. I didn't say it was impossible.
     
  9. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Sturgis being 2/4 doesn't help either....
     
  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah its a topic we just can't categorize, must look at each prospects skill set, i just have issues with large receivers with no speed.
     
  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    the last time we saw matthews he was in the redone and almost took a quick slant to the house while trucking some fools along the way..

    hmmm..our biggest, strongest, and most surehanded wide receiver on the team= doghouse.

    brian hardline played every rep last game= rishard matthews in the doghouse.
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    that call was utter horsepoop.
     
  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    even clothed bootlegs would be great, any fu""in bootleg for all i care.
     
  14. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Sorry if it seemed misleading, JC, but I wasn't trying to imply Hartline is the specific or even greatest reason for our current redzone issues. My point was more to the effect that our redzone offense will never be what it should be capable of while he's the starter.

    Keen points and I agree. The penalties can obviously be corrected and should be, but I believe our redzone offense will likely still sputter from time to time and fail to achieve greatness until Hartline is upgraded to a legitimate redzone threat.

    I won't disagree that there are too many missed assignments and too many examples of a defensive player overpowering or beating an offensive lineman to the mark.... but is that really the problem? There are simply too many talented defensive bodies in the NFL to expect to out-execute them consistently in the redzone. If an offense is dependent on 9, 10, or 11 players beating their man or winning their assignments, it's inevitable that they will occasionally fail, because there are 11 men on the other side of the ball who also have jobs to execute, and they aren't going to fail 10 out of 10 times. Even if the defender fails 6 out of 10 times, that could still be good enough to force a FG.

    Therefore, the easiest way to score is to minimize all the working parts required to score, because the greater amount of execution the offense is dependent on, the more that can go wrong. Your focus is on the need to execute better and to do a better job of preventing a defensive lineman from winning his battle, which obviously could still use some improvement, but we've gotta give credit where credit is due. Sometimes the defender opposite our blocker is simply more talented, so now in this situation we're asking a blocker to defeat a defender that he has no advantage over. There are big, strong, talented defensive tackles [some of which are being paid $30+ million] to beat our blockers, to beat the 300 pound Satele, Pouncey [303], and Colledge [308] who aren't known for their power. The drawback to having an interior O-line that can move well in a zone scheme is there's a good chance they can't provide a consistent push around the goal line.

    Even if 6 of 7 blockers do their jobs properly around the goal line but one blocker gets beat on the play, it can still cause everything to get blown up. Now, 6 of 7 represents 86% execution which, on the surface, you'd think should be successful, but in short yardage situations that's not always the case. So, why would we want to subject ourselves to excessive risk and potential failure if we could instead go right to an isolated matchup advantage that favors the offense and eliminates the need for so many working parts? For instance, rather than asking Satele, Colledge, and James to beat Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, and Mario Williams for a rushing TD despite the advantage lying with Buffalo, we could throw a quick hitter, quick lob, or a quick back shoulder to a receiver like James White or Devin Funchess who poses a matchup advantage over the corner on him? That way, rather than needing 10 or 11 guys to execute, you only need 2, one of which possesses an advantage. IMO, the biggest problem isn't the missed assignments or lineman getting overpowered or beaten to the mark. The biggest problem IMO is that we have to rely excessively on widespread execution that places us in position to lose some of these battles that you mention.

    If you look at great redzone offenses, most of them have a backyard football element, because with a compressed field aiding the defense and the back of the endzone acting as a 12th defender, offenses cant just rely on execution. They need playmakers, guys who can play some backyard football. Look at the Packers. Their redzone offense is alllll about backyard football. Rodgers can run around for days to find an open man. Lacy is a bulldozer. Cobb is a versatile athlete who can beat you with a handoff or break free from coverage while Rodgers is on the move. And then there's Jordy. Defensive lines are rendered obsolete on quick passes, quick lobs, or quick back-shoulders to Jordy. The ball is out of Rodgers' hand before anyone can get to him. It's just Aaron and Jordy, and when the ball is in the air or in Jordy's hands, he can go over, around, or through his defender to convert the TD.

    Miami unfortunately doesn't have a backyard element in the redzone. Our O-line isn't smash mouth, Miller is the plowing type, Tannehill is still gaining the feel for his feet, and our receivers are mostly dependent on route-running and timing to score. Look at Wallace's TD Sunday. The ball was in the air before Mike even pivoted back to the right. That was allll timing & execution. We need a guy on the other side of the field who can play some backyard ball, and it'd help to have a #2 TE who can also play some backyard ball like the 6'7 ex basketball player Joseph Fauria who caught 7 redzone TDs last year in isolated matchup advantage situations.

    When Miami does gain a backyard element, they won't need to place such an emphasis on execution. Personally, I'd take a 4 prong attack to addressing the issue. Obviously one prong involves replacing Hartline like previously mentioned. The other 3 involve adding a TE with the ability to go over linebackers and DBs; a situational, short-yardage power back who can win at the point of attack; and an interior lineman with the versatility to zone block effectively but also can get a push at the LOS. When Billy Turner develops, he'll be one solution on the interior, but a center to replace Satele or a guard to replace Shelley Smith if Pouncey moves to center would be an added welcome. Perhaps we could ditch Hartline, Gibson, Ellerbe, Shelley Smith, and Wheeler's contracts and use a portion of that to add Mike Iupati and move Pouncey back to center. Just an idea.
     
  15. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    About that, 10 of the QBs ahead of Tannehill in passer rating wouldn't qualify for ESPN's passing stats last year..... so, no, there haven't been "more than enough passes thrown in 2014 to qualify as a significant sample size".
     
  16. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I'm not sure what you're talking about here. We are talking about average passer rating across the league, not any particular player. The NFL average for 2014 is 90.
     
  17. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    Not if we are going to compare to 2013.

    Andy Dalton's first 8 games in 2013 he had a 99.0 passer rating. In the last 8 games of 2013, he had a 79.5 passer rating. This equaled out to be an 88.8 passer rating. There will be plenty of trends like this where guys like Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Austin Davis, Charlie Whitehurst, Kyle Orton, and others will come down to earth.

    I fully expect the passer rating average to be higher in 2014 but not 6 points higher.
     
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  18. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Again, we aren't talking about an individual player. We are talking about the league as a whole. How many total passes have been thrown this season?
     
  19. jcliving

    jcliving Active Member

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    @ToddPhin. I completely agree that the easiest way to improve our red zone offense is a legit red zone target.
     
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  20. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there
    Running inside the RZ has been a complaint since JJ left. Now we don't run the ball enough? That's funny!
    I like the stat KJackson made about Tanny.
    We have other problems that need to be corrected. Maybe playcalling and making FG's for example. Let's start with the little things.
     
  21. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just sign Julius Thomas! Genius!
     
  22. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    NFL teams overall don't run enough inside the RZ, and run too much outside the RZ.
     
  23. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    You're saying 6 or 7 games qualifies as a significant sample size. I'm suggesting it isn't, and I'm using ESPN's standards to support it. A QB must attempt a minimum of 224 passes to qualify for ESPN's end-of-year stats. Otherwise they're not recognized because the sample size is too small. Currently, 13 quarterbacks ahead of Tannehill in passer rating [and 8 QBs behind him] have yet to attempt 224 passes. Ergo, the sample size isn't yet reliable enough to suggest the current average is consistent with what the end-of-year average will be. What has changed since last year to lead us to believe this 6 point increase will be maintained? By the end of the year, the average passer rating is more likely to regress closer to the 84.1/83.8 range it's been the past 2 years than remain at 90.
     

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