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Taming the Lions - Week 10 Preview

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keithjackson, Nov 6, 2014.

  1. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Welcome to the best game of the week, Dolphins at Lions, arguably pitting the NFL's top two defenses against each other for bragging as the world's best. Perhaps we'll finally see what's the most accurate indicators: yards/game (DET #1 v MIA #3) or yards/attempt (MIA #1 v DET #3); DET #1 scoring def/year or MIA #1 scoring def/last 3 games; and the matchup of what I'd call the best rush defense in Detroit versus the best pass defense in Miami. Also, while both DLines are top five, Detroit has the slight edge in the interior and Miami slightly on the exterior. Compiling plaudits despite playing the likes of Brees, Brady, Rivers, Eli, Cutler, Newton, Ryan and Rodgers(x2), this has all the makings of a close and low-scoring brawl. But don't tell that to a Dolphins team averaging 30 points/game over the last five games, or a Lions team welcoming back Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush after a perfectly timed bye. These two top ten drafted QBs will fight back against the notion this will be a defensive clinic with all the pluck of talented underdogs. This marquee matchup sees two contenders vying to make a statement with their fourth straight victory.

    First off let's correct a misnomer, the MVP of the Lions' season is absolutely Golden Tate, the current #4 WR in the NFL. While the DLine is talented, Tate has single-handedly put them in position to win week after week, and without him this is a .500 team. He is a magician with the ball in his hands, displaying the best cutting ability of any WR in the game. He's proved to be the only big play threat for a Detroit team that has the second fewest big plays on offense in the NFL (14 rush 17 pass). He's great in tight spaces, takes perfect angles, and is clutch. The only weakness in his game is being able to win the contested ball; if you lay the wood on him as he makes a catch he will probably drop it. If Louis Delmas and Jimmy Wilson can smack him all game and see if they can exploit that vulnerability into hesitation. Conversely, Calvin Johnson is the toughest WR you'll ever see, and obviously the best in the game if healthy, but that's a big IF. If Megatron is 100%, this is the best WR pair the Fins will face all year. Then again, making invisible men of Chicago's dynamic duo, this is the best secondary Johnson and Tate will cross as well. Our defense excels in coverage, and even moreso, in discipline. The benefit of having a veteran DB corps is a dearth of brainfarts, and the teamwork of being in the right spot will never be more important than this week.

    The good news is Matt Stafford is not as good as you think. Yes, he's got a super strong arm and his deep ball is miles ahead of Tannehill's. Otherwise, Ryan is superior is every other facet: intermediate & short passing, extending plays, running, and, most importantly, accuracy. Stafford's accuracy is consistently mediocre in all situations, especially in his intermediate passing. While not totally his fault, the short passing game, particularly dump offs in the flat, results in a humorous amount of drops (and one-hoppers). He seldom both eludes a defender and completes a pass in the same play. He's average: no elite strengths and no damning weaknesses. (His only true weakness this year may be in the redzone, where his 83.5 rating is 7th-worst.) While he isn't elite, he doesn't make bone-headed decisions either. In fact, he's probably thrown the ball away more than any other QB this year. With the pressure Miami brings, expect him to throw the ball away a dozen times on Sunday. Also, while he usually throws the ball to the right person, he can be hurried into inaccuracy pretty easily, especially when the rush forces him to jostle side-to-side instead of climbing the pocket.

    Between that and one of the league's worst running games, it actually seems like Detroit's offense is always working with just two downs. J. Bell is a slow, plodding runner that relies on a powerful head of steam. Reggie Bush, while more dangerous, is relying on smarts and technique instead of pure talent as he has clearly lost a step, and we could expect even less coming off an injury. Detroit is averaging 3.1 yards/attempt (#31) and 79.6 y/game (#31), and those stats should not improve against a stout MIA DLine. Also, it's still unclear what group of TEs will take the field this week, but it really doesn't matter as the unit as a whole has not had an impact this year. Their Oline is bottom five according to the stats considering the rush average, and the fact they've allowed 24 sacks (fifth-worst). (FYI, they just blanked Atlanta last week who has a league low seven sacks on the season - is that a good or bad sign?) However, the eyeball test doesn't agree with the stats. They are average, and the poor results have more to do with inadequate RBs and a QB that can't elude the rush. (They may be getting their RT back this week too.) Still, the Fins' pass rush should be as effective as always; the only other time they played a top five DLine (Bills) they surrendered six sacks and amassed 49 yards rushing. But don't get ahead of yourself, that ended up being a game they totally could've - and should've- won, and if weren't for a historically hideous kicking game, they would've. And honestly, Miami didn't do any better against BUF, KC, or JAX's Dlines. In fact, MIA and DET have combined to go 0-3 when playing top five defenses so far on the season.

    And, oh yea, Detroit has the BEST defense in football right now. It's not a toss-up; Miami had a had to chance to be #1 on the final drive against GB, but they couldn't do what #1 does. Now they have another shot, but they're gonna have to outplay a unit that piles strength upon strength. While BUF and JAX may be more disruptive, the Lion's Dline is overall more solid. I'm convinced they secretly play with 14 men on the field, swarming from sideline-to-sideline. Remove all slow-developing plays, stretch plays, plays behind the LOS, and plays that rely on trying to "juke" your way to yards from the playbook; they won't work. These are the best DTs in football. With the NFL's best rush defense, their interior should provide the running game a long day. (The only other time they faced a top five running game, the Jets ran for 132 yards and 4.9 average, but NYJ's runners match up better.) Tough runners do better than fast runners. The Dolphin's biggest concern is Detroit's NFL-best ability to stuff 16.5% of runs because, despite their top five rushing attack, they are stuffed on a sixth-worst 10.9%. It's a boom-or-bust run game, countering 25 stuffed runs with 31 ten yard-plus runs (#4), but DET has only allowed 16 of those (#3). It's questionable how susceptible they are to the read option and the legs of Ryan Tannehill. A small sample against Cam Newton, including yards redacted by penalty, showed glimpses of vulnerability and think Ryan should be able to continue his running streak. However, especially with Lamar Miller's uncertain status, neither team will be controlling the game on the ground. An inability to run should give Miami fits with third-and-longs, as the Lions have the the #2 third down defense (32%).

    The DET secondary is opportunistic, good tacklers, and almost impossible to beat in one-on-one situations, but if you're going to beat the Lions it's got to be in the air. Both offenses throw short passes with low YATC, DET 5.92 yards/pass (#22) and MIA 4.79 (#28) in the air, relying on YAC, DET 6.43 yards/rec (#4) and MIA 5.92 (#9). However, DET's defense is allowing 125.6 yards/game of YAC (#20) and MIA 111.1 (#7). The YAC battle could decide this game. I actually like Miami's chances against the Lions' pass rush, which is not that productive. Ansah leads their team with only four hurries and 4.5 sacks, and Branden Albert and Ja'Waun James are playing lights-out. Detroit has a total of 23 sacks (#9) and 12 TOs (#17), but 6 sacks and 4 TOs came against Minnesota. The key to this game will be Bill Lazor, who spurned the Lions' offer to become their OC this offseason in order to join the Dolphins. When you can't out-talent them, you've got to out-smart them. While they are money on covering sideline routes, they have a weakness in the intermediate middle, particularly on slant routes, because Tahir Whitehead is playing out of position at MLB. Otherwise, get used to hearing Deandre Levy's name a lot.

    This is the week to use your bag of tricks in all phases of the game. Play the game like its a two-minute drill, keep the pace quick, and rely on Tannehill's ability to throw lasers. Of the eight QBs Detroit has played, four have recorded ratings better than their average and four worse. To win this game, we need Ryan Tannehill to keep playing well.

    Other Notables With a defensive game difficult to run in and with a lot of short passes, this could come down to Special Teams. The highlight of MIA's ST unit is the return game, but DET should negate that by boasting one of the league's best punters and kicking touchbacks 77.14% (#3). Miami's coverage unit is the 3rd-worst against both punts and kickoffs, and should only get worse without its best player, Michael Thomas. the Lions have a very capable returner, posting a 30.9 average starting field position (#4). The Fins' average starting field position will be interesting to watch, as they average an NFL-best at the 33.6 yardline and the Lions force an NFL second-best 24.2 yardline. DET has the edge if it comes down to STs, ignoring an abysmal 47.4% FG kicking (they've had three kickers, and their current, Prater, is 5/7). On the other hand, perhaps it'll come down to turnovers, as many close games do. If so, the Dolphins should have the edge with +9 differential over the last three weeks (the Dolphins have a remarkable +55 point differential off TOs (#1)). Still, the other key to this game may be the third quarter, a true bout of Strength v. Strength. Coming out of halftime adjustments, MIA is scoring 11.8 points in Q3 (#1) and DET is only allowing 3 points (#2).

    Prediction The Lions are amongst the league leaders in slower, 10+ play and five-minute drives, whereas the Dolphins should rely on a faster tempo to keep the defense off balance. Both offenses should have trouble dictating the script, with running yards scarce and defenses dominating. While the Dolphins have the more prolific offense in yards/first downs/points, Detroit has showed the tenacity to overcome 21- and 13-point deficits in huge fourth quarter comebacks the last two weeks. Ultimately, I have to pick the Dolphins to WIN. BUF and KC showed the key to unlocking the Miami defense is by establishing the run, and the Lions just don't have the running game to do that. On the other hand, the key to unlocking the Detroit defense is quick intermediate passing in the middle of the field, and that just happens to be Ryan Tannehill's specialty.
    MIA 20 DET 16
     
  2. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I really hope it doesn't come down to ST. I think we lose that matchup.
     
  3. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Can't wait for Sunday so we can put this myth of the great Lions D to rest. Levy and Suh are ballers, the rest of them are meh, take a seat on the bench behind "dolphin defender X". No we will not walk all over them like we've done our last few opponents but matchups wise Miami has a clear advantage Imo. My only worry is that we have a much more important game vs Buffalo on Thursday that the team might (should?) be looking forward to.
     
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  4. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks again Keith for an excellent and informative post. Miami just has to get to Stafford early and often and he will get happy feet in the pocket. As long as our DLINE and pass rush plays to their capabilities I think we will get 6 sacks and 3 picks and I have us winning 27-17!!
     
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If thats all we gotta do then I trust our dynamic bookends to get it done, ain't nobody gonna stop wake on turf..sheeeeeeet
     
  6. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yep....Keep it Simple.
     
  7. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I posted this on a Lions board and they replied:
    I really was surprised how many of his throws were a foot or two off the mark. If he didn't have amazing WRs, I think Detroit would be looking for a new QB.

    I guess their Oline may be worse than I thought.
     
  8. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Sounds about right ;)
     
  9. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Their OL ain't bad, relAtively speaking, but they will be made to look bad come Sunday.
     
  10. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    as always great read man, i wanna touch on your stafford hasnĀ“t eluded any defenders or does not have any wow plays, you have to go way back to week 1 to see that, on that 60+ yarder to Johnson and then the wow throw to johnson on that 2nd drive for another touchdown, i havenĀ“t seen him do it ever since and i follow the lions a lot because Johnson and Tate are on my fantasy teams in my most important leagues.
     
  11. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    Good write up although I have not been impressed with the Lions secondary the few times I have watched them.
     
  12. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I want to see our Defense play aggressive like they did with the Bolts.

    Stafford you want to get in his head right off the bat. You dont want him to start feeling comfortable. Put Grimes on Tate....bracket Calvin Johnson.
     
  13. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    You should post the link to CrunchTime's video of all of Tannehill's throws versus San Diego, so they can get a feel for how Tannehill has been looking like this year, and the offense as a whole.

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=687_1415244335
     
  14. MichiganSportsTalk

    MichiganSportsTalk New Member

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    He doesn't do it often, but he has at least a couple of those types of plays every game. Most recently is this one from the Atlanta game:
    http://www.detroitlions.com/media-c...-yard-TD/6c659403-f5bf-4d5a-bd3c-8d910dd53da4
     
  15. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's another interesting take from a Lions' fan:
    Also, they only mustered three points in the first halves against two of the worst defenses in football their previous game (NO & MIN), so we should do our best to get on them early.
     
  16. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Hope so! I've been recovering from ACL surgery (soccer tournament) so I have the time these days, but I'm MUCH more inclined to write something up the weeks after a win. Otherwise I can't stomach thinking about football for days; hopefully we don't have many more losses dampening our fervor.
     
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  17. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    It's a hard question to answer beacause of Caleb freaking Sturgis, If it wasn't for him I would pick Miami all day long in that scenario the way we've been playing lately.
     
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  18. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Awesome question. The Lions have just come back to win in the fourth quarter of their last two games, and that's how we lost the Packers game, so I should pick us on offense. But, I'd probably want our best unit out there and that's our defense. We are much better than NO and MIN, and Stafford is no Aaron Rodgers.

    I'd laugh if it does come down to the kicking game; with these defense and kickers, I'd set the over/under on missed FGs at 4.
     
  19. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yikes, that's a tough question. I guess I'd say I'd rather our offense against Detroit's. 1) It'd be a nice feather in Ryan Tannehill's cap if he were to notch a comeback against the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and 2) Calvin Johnson is so much a freak athlete that even if Miami plays good defense, makes the right call, and has him double-covered, he STILL can pull off some type of circus catch in the clutch. I'd rather not have to let it come to that.

    Not demeaning the Dolphins' D in anyway; Calvin Johnson is simply a FREAK athlete.
     
  20. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's a good example. I was thinking more like the game against San Diego from last year when Brent Grimes knocked down the pass on the last play to preserve a win. Calvin Johnson hauls that in. Probably with ease. I don't want to be in that scenario. Or any scenario that has Philip Wheeler covering someone man-to-man on a final play.
     
  21. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    Low score prediction. I'm thinking 31-24 Dolphins.

    Wallace gets a TD pass
    Clay Gets a TD Pass
    Miller gets 1 rushing.
    Grimes gets 1 pick 6.
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Wait....is that a "low score" nowadays?
     
  23. phinzi

    phinzi Season Ticket Holder

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  24. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  25. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

  26. Deerless Dice

    Deerless Dice Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Lions resolved theirkicker problems once they signed Prater. Miami is at the disadvantage here, and if they lose because of Sturgis it wouldn't surprise me.
     
  27. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    - Priceless
     
  28. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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  29. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    Of course. Have you seen all the new anti-defense rules in the last 2 decades? Of course.. i know you were being facetious. I mean right?
     
  30. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Prater is kicking 71.4% this year. Sturgis is kicking 80%.
     
  31. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yep and he got a reprieve against the Falcons when he got another chance after a delay of game penalty, they really lost that game, one of the worst games I've watched in a very long time. I don't have a lot of faith in Sturgis but he's better than the Lions kicker(s).

    If we can keep the pressure off of Tannehill i think we win this game decisively but if they get pressure up the middle it could be a bad game for us. They are similar to Buffalo except they actually have an offense so its going to be quite a test of where we are right now on offense.
     
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  32. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Big game tomorrow and quiet in here today.
     
  33. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I've been a little less chatty myself, cuz I'm chillin at the in-laws' on vacation (drove through RT's hometown yesterday). Only slightly concerned about the Detroit game...only because Colledge is out and Miller is gimpy.
     
  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Folks are in that limbo stage, don't know whether to puff their chests out, or sit and wait..

    Football players and teams understand what games are most important, if they think a game isnt imperative it's hard to collectively get up for it..a lot of times games come down to who wants the game more..

    If we win this game, the Miami dolphins are legitimate title contenders..

    I certainly hope they have taken a pact as a team that this year is the year for them to make this run and sacrifice everything for the team..If they have, we should see a team play a good football game 2maro
     
  35. RickyBobby

    RickyBobby VIP DIY

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    Someone in here mentioned that Megatron would easily catch the TD over Grimes that he knocked down against SD last year...


    [​IMG]
     
  36. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Obviously I hope they win tomorrow. That will make the Bills really big.
     
  37. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I want to so bad win because I know what it will mean for the energy in the building Thursday nite..
     
  38. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We really need to go on a big run. That would be awesome.
     
  39. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    time is going by so sloooooow today, man canĀ“t wait for that game
     
  40. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes it is..was hoping to sleep in a little, but what happens? You got it..up @ 5:30 a.m. Come on Miami..let's roll into the motor city and play an even better game than the Chargers game and depart Detroit leaving with them a taste of what Dolphins football is all about !!LET'S GO FINS !!!!
     

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