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Pre-Game Preview: BUF@MIA

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keithjackson, Nov 13, 2014.

  1. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Anticipation and dread.

    It's Buffalo Bills time again.

    (I wanted to get spit out a few thoughts before the game. I didn't get a chance to watch all of the Bills games this week, but hopefully there's some interesting things to think about in the following.)

    The number one key to this game for me is Ryan Tannehill in passing situations on third downs. In two games last year, Ryan went 8/25 27yards 1TD 2ints on third down. One of those INTs was a pick-6 and he was also sacked six times. In 21 passing situations, he only converted ONCE, a four-yard TD to Gibson.
    In Week Two this year, he had 11 third down passing situation and converted only three of them, with six incompletions and one sack.

    This season, against the high-powered defenses of BUF, DET, JAX and KC, Tannehill has gone 17/37 154 1/1, giving up 5 sacks. Out of 42 passing situations on third down, he has only converted 12 of them. We MUST figure out how to successfully pass on third down - or, at least, limit the sacks and INTs (god knows Sturgis needs every yard he gets).

    I've been somewhat Jarvis Landry-centric because of the other thread, so might as well continue here. Utilizing him would be my suggestion. Jarvis Landry was the best WR on third downs in the NCAA last year: 28 receptions (#1), 26 of 28 were converted into first downs, six TDs (#1), six 25+ yard plays (#1), and fifteen 15+ Yard plays (#2). I would be looking his way a lot. Overall, with a DLine so disruptive, you've got to bait them and throw screens, which plays right to his strengths. I'm curious if Jarvis will continue to become the team's number one reciever. In case you didn't realize, Wallace has only out-gained Landry twice in the last six games, and over that span Landry actually has more receptions. I'm expecting a touchdown tonight, as Jarvis has scored in two straight home games.

    There is no evidence that we should win this game. All three times we've played a similar defense, they got the better of us. Now that we are playing our offensive line like its a game of Boggle, Ja'Waun James and Dallas Thomas really have the weight of the game on their shoulders. Personally, I think BUF's interior is better than DET's, but they'll be a lot more susceptible to plays on the outside.

    Hopefully, LaMichael James is lightening in a bottle for us. Overall I'm not holding my breath, but he should be the biggest nightmare matchup for Brandon Spikes. I don't think either team will really run the ball well. The other time they were without Jackson and Spiller they went 32/67 against the Jets. (Overall, all other Bills rushers have averaged 3.63 yards/carry on the season.) Vick had some success with the read option, but Tannehill's injury may hinder how often we turn to the read option.

    Kyle Orton is good.

    With the crowd noise and our pass rush, we really need to win the battle of penalties tonight. However, Jamar Taylor may singlehandedly be the deciding factor in that contest.

    In the end, the Lions game was about Big Plays. In the first half, Detroit completed the fake punt and the deep ball that the Dolphins screwed up. Still, both Miami's offense and defense had the opportunity to win the game win their final possessions, and neither could. Tonight should be the same. Special Teams and Turnovers, again.

    I want the Dolphins to murder the Bills, but I think this team needs to win a close one. We are 4-2 over the last six games, with two last second losses. We need to make a stand in the fourth quarter, and grab the game and win it. We need a goal-line stand or a game-winning drive. I think that would galvanize this team more than another blowout.

    But I'll take a blowout, too.
     
    Ophinerated likes this.
  2. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    I'm a big Tannehill fan but he's not putting a cape on tonight. It's gonna take good D, some semblance of a run game, good ST play, that's means you Fields and Sturgis, crowd noise, emotion, a break or two, to win his game. We are not the better team, even maybe, but we don't have to be better we just have to score more points than they do.
     
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Keith what is our third down conversion rate overall?
     
  4. SargeZ33

    SargeZ33 Semperfi!

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    From what I have noticed, the Phin's offense works best against 3/4 defenses. Seems if they go against 4/3 with strong line play, they struggle. Unfortunately, the Bills have an excellent front four. They do not need to blitz to put pressure on RT, and that frees up the linebackers and secondary to cover.
     
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'll take our D over them...
     
  6. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Overall, our 3rd down efficiency is 40.5% (#20) and Buffalo's defense is allowing 34.9% (#5).
    Conversely, the Bills are converting 36.7% (#25) and our defense allows 38.8% (#13).
     
    Ophinerated likes this.
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    below average on third down..

    May I ask you where Seattle and San fran rank?
     
  8. Fins Hipster

    Fins Hipster Banned

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    The difficulty in this game will be with Buffalo's defensive line, because lines like theirs tend to stuff the Dolphins' running game and put the passing game into low-percentage down-and-distance situations, while getting pressure on Tannehill in those situations and disrupting the passing game. How many yards the Dolphins get on first and second down will tell the tale early in this one.
     
  9. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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