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QB Rakeem Cato, Marshall (Class: 2015)

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by ckparrothead, Oct 17, 2014.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Has played in every single game (47 of them) since being recruited to Marshall.

    Has thrown at least one TD in 44 of 47 games since going to Marshall.

    One of the games he didn't throw a touchdown was a game where he sat the bench his true freshman year (Rice), only having 4 pass attempts in the game. Funny thing is he sat the bench in two more games having only 4 pass attempts and then 3 pass attempts...yet he still threw a TD in each one of those games.

    So even the three games he sat the bench, he still managed to throw a TD in two of them while only throwing the ball 3 or 4 times in each game.

    His consecutive streak is at 40 games and he has the potential to end it at 47 games. If he does, that record will never be broken in the NCAA. Ever. Prior to him the record was at 38 games (Russell Wilson), and prior to that 36 games (Graham Harrell) and prior to that 35 games (Ty Detmer). Setting the standard at 47 games would mean an end to the record-keeping on that particular record, IMO.

    He would probably also hold the record for number of NCAA games with at least one touchdown pass at 51 games. And again I'm not sure that record would ever be broken.

    Phil Rivers is the guy that comes to mind as being potentially close. But he played in 49 games and threw a TD in 39 of them. Harrell beat that with 41 games with a TD pass. I'm not sure how many of Drew Brees' 45 games he threw at least one TD, nor Ty Detmer's 48 games.

    Rakeem Cato just passed Russell Wilson (109) on the all-time touchdown pass list at 110. He likely has seven more games to go, and if he keeps throwing TDs at his current pace (2.5 per game) then he'll finish in the top 5 of college football history behind Case Keenum (155), Kellen Moore (142), Graham Harrell (134) and Colt Brennan (132)...but ahead of Landry Jones (123), Ty Detmer and Aaron Murray (121).

    He's also on pace to potentially join the top 5 in career touchdowns, along with Case Keenum, Dan Lefevour, Colt Brennan/Graham Harrell and Tim Tebow. He could come barely ahead of Colin Kaepernick.
     
  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    DJ, I would love to hear your input on this. I know you're reticent about Rakeem Cato's size. But I'd like you to take a look at something for me:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...sWop5Qb-0&list=UUqtg0FdNZ5cTGELBGyCBgsw#t=585

    In those two replays above I want you to pay close attention to Rakeem Cato's thigh mass, you'll get good angles of it from the front and back. This was from 2013.

    Now I want you to look at some parts of 2014 tape and see if you notice any difference.

    First there's this, particularly while he's running into the end zone to celebrate.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=f5WdBRYHjvA#t=80

    And another one:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=f5WdBRYHjvA#t=241

    Is it me or is he thicker below the waist? (insert joke here).

    One thing I saw during the All Access episode stuck with me and that was how the NCAA's rule change on feeding players has really changed how much they can help players in their strength and conditioning program.

    On several interviews Doc Holliday points out that when Cato came out of high school, because of his upbringing he had no idea about anything you'd take for granted. He hadn't had anyone at home telling him to get up and go to class, and Holliday specifically said one time he was 150 lbs and had never seen the weight room before.

    He's done a good job adding weight from 150 lbs to whatever he is, maybe 180 or 190 lbs. But I wonder if the new NCAA rule has really helped him start to add a little junk in the trunk. You see it on the All Access episode during the team lifting session they all go to break in order to drink all this Muscle Milk stuff and all this food cooked up especially for them. The head of strength and conditioning notes specifically that wasn't stuff they could do before because of NCAA rules about feeding players. I think some of the bigger schools brazenly did it anyway but schools like Marshall probably didn't.

    Given his background and especially given his temperament, I doubt Rakeem Cato the college athlete has much more than a pot to piss in. He's got a scholarship and housing I'm sure, but not much else because of NCAA rules.

    Now that the teams are allowed to feed the players, these players are making bigger gains in the weight room and I think Cato LOOKS like he could be benefiting from that as well. It would bode well for the NFL's potential success in adding meat to his bones.
     
  3. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I wouldn't really go that far. I mean for example, Brad Kaaya as a true freshman has 9 straight with a TD with 3 left and a bowl game. I'm not saying by any means Kaaya is the one who will break it, but with more freshman (redshirt or otherwise) playing early I dont think its a safe record. All a guy may need is to stay in school which is the part that will make it hard.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I stand by the statement. If he extends it to 47 games, it will never be broken. Most quarterbacks don't even play 47 games. Most don't even come close to playing in 47 games. And if they're good enough to NEVER go a game without throwing a TD then generally they're good enough to come out early.

    Telling ya, 47 games and that never gets broken. Ever.
     
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  5. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Fair enough. I don't believe in never, as long as its possible to play over 47 games it will be possible. Especially now with an extra playoff game for some teams. It'll be broken eventually IMO even if its 20-30 years from now.
     
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Trust me I don't say the term "ever" lightly. I once thought Dan Marino's total touchdown record would never be broken.

    The only way anyone ever threatens to break this though would be if a trend develops (perhaps due to a more extensive college playoff system?) where players are playing more games period.

    Here's the thing. Passing trends can make it more common to throw touchdowns. But that MOSTLY is going to affect touchdowns per game and career touchdowns. With this particular record, just having a wildfire passing game isn't going to help you break the record because that's not what the record is really measuring. The record is measuring how consistently the quarterback gets on the field, plays through the game without getting hurt, and doesn't ever lay a stinker (scoring at least one touchdown per game over a 47 game stretch is pretty significant on its own, let alone passing touchdowns...as even high output offenses get bombed every now and then).

    I'm just saying unless players start to play more games because of playoffs and whatnot...that record's not getting broken.
     
  7. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Oh its definitely a hell of a record. Very impressive and likely to stand a long...long time. It would take a very special set of circumstances to break.

    It seems to me the only chances would be for a huy on a powerhouse team who starts all four years (A Ken Dorsey type who stays four years) or a really talented smaller school guy who doesn't face great defensive play often and stays in school to improve his stock.

    The fact that he is going to demolish the record shows how long it should stand.
     
  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Let's hope he continues it. He's got four more games on the schedule, plus a conference championship game, plus a bowl game. So I guess actually he could only extend it to 46 games.

    Still, previous record was 38 games...extending it by 8 games, yowsa.

    I'd love to ask Gator Hoskins for an off-the-record assessment of Rakeem Cato in light of the quarterbacks he's been playing with in Miami.
     
  9. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Prediction:

    Tonight no team from the Group of Five conferences will appear in the playoff committee's Top 25. And they will not say which team from the Group of Five is in the lead for the access bowl bid.

    The good news is that I just realized that the exact language for the access bowl bid states that it will go to the highest-ranked CONFERENCE CHAMPION from the Group of Five conferences.

    That's important because it means unless Boise State loses a game, then Colorado State just plain isn't eligible because they won't even play in the Mountain West Championship Game. So until/unless Boise loses another game...Colorado State isn't even in the conversation.

    Hypothetically speaking an undefeated Marshall team would face competition from Georgia Southern, Boise State/Nevada, Bowling Green/Toledo, and whichever teams emerge from the AAC as co-champions.

    Truthfully Memphis could win the AAC, given the remaining schedule.
     
  10. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Saw this when it aired live.

    Again, I'm hijacking the thread and I'm sorry.

    As a Marshall fan, I'm so proud of our tradition. Ya, we're not Alabama or Notre Dame, but it's unique and special. It's built from tragedy. My father and his entire side of the family went to Marshall. My father was part of the marching band after the crash, as the band and boosters were also killed in the crash.

    Even if you aren't a fan of Marshall, if you ever have the opportunity (and I don't know if you would because Huntington isn't exactly NYC), visit the memorial. It just gives you goosebumps. Every year on 11/14, it's a special date for my dad and his side of the family. Every weekend when we play (this year we play on 11/15), it's a really cool moment.

    Anywho, back to talking about Rakeem Cato and his badassness, but Marshall is just really great story. If I didn't have the opportunity to play baseball in Florida, I would have gone to MU no doubt.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Prediction came true. The CFP refused to put any Group of Five team in the Top 25 and they're not going to reveal which one they consider to rank highest. I don't blame them. It's bad enough they're forced to rank the Top 25 weekly, no need to do even more of that.

    I stand by that an undefeated Marshall easily gets the decision. Colorado State isn't eligible until/unless Boise drops a game. I doubt a 2-loss Boise gets in over a Marshall team that just hypothetically beat Rice and then Louisiana Tech to finish 13-0.
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Might be the best game I've seen Cato play this year and that's saying a lot.

    Marshall had a banner day taking out their playoff committee frustrations on Southern Miss.

    Damn near took a major blow as Boise State entered the 4th quarter down 8 points to New Mexico. If Boise had lost that game, Colorado State gets back into the Mountain West Championship Game...and I know there are a bunch of people waiting to put a 1-loss CSU above an undefeated Marshall just because of that win against the great Boston College (who got creamed by Louisville today, btw).

    Lucky Boise rallied.
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Might be the best game I've seen Cato play this year and that's saying a lot.

    Marshall had a banner day taking out their playoff committee frustrations on Southern Miss.

    Damn near took a major blow as Boise State entered the 4th quarter down 8 points to New Mexico. If Boise had lost that game, Colorado State gets back into the Mountain West Championship Game...and I know there are a bunch of people waiting to put a 1-loss CSU above an undefeated Marshall just because of that win against the great Boston College (who got creamed by Louisville today, btw).

    Lucky Boise rallied.
     
  14. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

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    All of this without Devon Johnson too. Impressive.
     
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  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Last night I got hold of a higher quality copy of the Florida Atlantic game and so I was able to do my usual velocity analysis on that touchdown to Tommy Shuler. Before I had done some preliminary work on it but I wanted to make sure I had my precision level up so I did it with some of my more precise tools and practices.

    That throw to Tommy Shuler was about 38 yards (114 feet) and the ball averaged 52.0 mph.

    That is a borderline absurd velocity for that distance.

    The longer a throw, the lower its average velocity will be. This is simple physics. The longer a throw, the more arc you need to get on the ball, which elongates the ball's path relative to the straight line distance. Additionally, air resistance takes more of a toll the longer a throw is.

    In my experience, guys that have STRONG arms, guys like Ryan Tannehill and the like...achieve average velocity of 52 mph on throws that go HALF the distance of that throw. When they get up to the distance that Cato threw on that play, their average velocity is down in the 40's. The low 40's at that distance would in my experience be a weaker-armed guy. The mid-40's at that distance is acceptable for an NFL arm. The upper-40's would be your prototypical NFL starter, as they all tend to have really good arms and good velocity.

    Anything in the 50's at that distance is circus music and clown shoes.
     
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  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    As I said before, this could be the best I have seen Rakeem Cato play this year and that would be saying something. This was the first time the Herd got to play since the Playoff Committee Rankings came out (which left them off the Top 25)...and I sense that Cato was pissed.

    The game was 14-0 in favor of Southern Miss before Cato even got the ball for the first time. Southern Miss got a touchdown on the opening drive then executed a successful onside kick and scored another touchdown.

    From there Cato's offense outscored Southern Miss 63-3. :lol:

    [video=youtube;yR2XfZsqt1o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2XfZsqt1o[/video]

    Go to following time indexes if you want to see some good Cato plays:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=192 (Completion - 3:12)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=220 (Completion - 3:40)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=269 (Scramble Conversion - 4:29)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=326 (MUST SEE TOUCHDOWN - 5:26)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=390 (Completion - 6:30)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=528 (Scramble - 8:48)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=562 (Completion - 9:22)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=690 (Completion - 11:30)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=712 (Completion - 11:52)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=740 (TOUCHDOWN - 12:20)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...cTGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=997 (Scramble - 16:37)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...TGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=1115 (Completion - 18:35)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...TGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=1137 (Completion - 18:57)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...TGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=1183 (Completion - 19:43)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...TGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=1207 (RUN TOUCHDOWN - 20:07)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...TGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=1313 (Scramble - 21:53)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...TGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=1372 (Run - 22:52)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR2X...TGELBGyCBgsw&feature=player_detailpage#t=1707 (Completion Almost TD - 28:06)

    If you only get to watch one play I would say watch the touchdown that I bolded. Pretty incredible play from a pretty incredible player.
     
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  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Some notes:

    1. It was Tommy Shuler's birthday during the game. His 5 catch, 80 yard with a TD performance was one of the best of the season for Tommy and Rakeem Cato admits it wasn't a coincidence. “I really wanted to do that coming into this game, watching film on (Southern Miss), their number one coverage was man-to-man. I love my chances with Shuler against anyone one-on-one.”

    2. Rakeem Cato on not getting the ball until they were already down 14-0. “I got hyped, I got very hyped. As soon as we went down 14, I already knew. I felt it in myself and felt it through the whole offense. It was just a matter of touching the ball. I just went to a whole other different Cato.” (lol)

    3. The touchdown I put in bold above was a bit of a broken play (which you might have guessed). “The play was designed to go to (Frohnapfel) and two people grabbed Froh. That put me in the mode that I had to make something happen, and Remi did a hell of a job staying with the play. He did a great job of catching the ball. I just knew in the back of my mind, I didn’t want three points. I wanted seven points.” Film review shows that indeed two players grabbed Frohnapfel as he tried to run his out route, so Cato saw it accurately during the play.

    4. Todd Monken, who coached for the Jacksonville Jaguars from 2007 to 2010 and then coached Brandon Weeden at OkSt in 2011, on Rakeem Cato: “The biggest challenge in facing a guy like that is he is a very confident player. Just the way he carries himself. He has a belief in himself. I think the guys (around him) feed off of that.” Also... “A couple of times he pulled it and ran with it, which he is capable of. That is where they came, and that is where they are going to come, those plays, when he breaks you down or when the game gets to a point where you are just a hair down from an energy standpoint or a detail standpoint.”

    5. The game against Southern Miss brought one personal benefit in that it showed me that I need to follow up and do some work on Southern Miss DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, whom Doc Holliday accurately described as the best defensive lineman they've faced all year. One could certainly argue that he was held on that incredible scrambling touchdown throw that Cato threw to Remi Watson. But in general, Chris Jasperse did an incredible job neutralizing him...with the exception of one play where Nunez-Roches was able to spin out of Jasperse's control and pressure Cato. Of course, Cato dodged him and then ran for a big gain. Tough break for Nunez-Roches.

    6. College playoff committee may have a point when they dump on Marshall's schedule. Conference USA is a pitiful 0-22 when facing Power Five opponents this year. But I believe you have to go deeper than the schedule and actually evaluate Marshall as a team in order to see their worth. They play a cake schedule, but they play that cake schedule the way you would expect an Alabama or a team like that to end up playing against a cake schedule. They beat their opponents by a ton, they only end up throwing the ball with their first string quarterback 27 times a game because of the lopsided scores, and they've got backups in by the end of the 3rd quarter.
     
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  18. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Big game against Rice on Saturday. Rumors are that Fox may be picking it up and playing it at 2:30p CDT! If not, it will definitely be on FS1 at that time.
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Really hope they don't blow this one. I know they've had this game circled because of the CUSA Championship Game a year ago.

    I don't think Rice is the same team they were a year ago and I think Marshall is a lot better than a year ago, but even so you've got to go out there and execute.
     
  20. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

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    Is there anything in particular about his mechanics that you think contributes to this?
     
  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Nah. Not really. He's got a gunslinger's mechanics and those guys tend to have a lot of confidence in their arm and very strong natural arms. He's been playing the position since he was like 6 or 8 years old. Back in Liberty City playing with guys like T.Y. Hilton, Tommy Shuler, etc...he was always the quarterback in the neighborhood. And he always had a supreme amount of confidence that he could do whatever he wanted with the football, even probably before that was actually true.
     
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  22. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would be pretty shocked it they do. Personally, the games I've always worried about (not including the C-USA Championship) were FAU away & UAB away. They'll be ready to play vs. Rice. As of now, they're planning on breaking the 37k attendance record the last time Rice came to play (which is a lot for Huntington, haha).

    I worry about how we handle ourselves after a big win vs Rice, going away to UAB.

    The C-USA game is just a completely different monster. With 1 game separating them from their goal, that presents all sorts of mental challenges for this team. However, they have some really great leaders, including Rakeem Cato.
     
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  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I was definitely worried about the FAU game. There's something to be said for a team and coaching staff that just may have your number a little bit. And it seemed for a while like that was going to happen again.

    That's why I worry about this Rice game. That wasn't a close game last year. Rice just had them, plain and simple.

    I don't worry about the UAB game. I don't think Rakeem Cato and some others let anyone take the week off when they're so close to their goals. I didn't see any of the games this year being a danger in that way...the trap idea. They're not a team that can be trapped. They ARE a team that can have another team with the right players and right coaching staff stump them, though.

    The CUSA Championship is a whole different monster as you say but not because of the emotions...it's because of the opponent. Louisiana Tech is a good football team. Kenneth Dixon is an incredible player. They lost to Oklahoma and they lost to Auburn. Not anything that should be held against them.

    Otherwise the only thing that separates them from a Marshall is that they had an imperfect moment against Northwestern State...when they lost by a mere field goal. They had that game. With only about 5 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter La Tech were up 27-17 and held NWST to a 3rd & 16 on the La Tech 30 yard line. But then NWST got 15 yards on the play, converted the 4th & 1 and ran in a 14 yard touchdown. Then the star of La Tech's team Kenneth Dixon fumbled the football on 3rd & 1 while they were trying to run out the clock with a 3 point lead. On NWST's ensuing drive La Tech had a player get a personal foul which put them in FG range so they tied the game up. Then with 1:05 left and a tied game, La Tech tries to execute a 1 minute drill to win the game with a field goal, except uh oh their quarterback throws an interception on the first play of the drive. That led to a NWST 47 yard FG to win the game with the clock expiring.

    I mean you want to talk about having a game where you've taken care of business for 55 minutes, and then you blink and it all gets taken away because of mistake after mistake temporarily pile up...that's what happened to La Tech and otherwise it's the only thing that separates them from what most people think Marshall is, which is a team that would also get beat soundly by the likes of Oklahoma and Auburn.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Once again no Group of Five team represented in the CFP top 25.

    In a way it bodes well for Marshall. They can't get into the playoffs. We know that. But they can get to the Peach Bowl...as long as Boise State doesn't lose, but also doesn't jump them in the rankings.

    Colorado State can only jump them if Boise State loses a game.
     
  25. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    All fair points, Chris.

    I took Marshall at -19.5 which it opened at. I told myself anything under 20 and I'm going in. We'll see how it works out.

    LA Tech is a solid squad no doubt.
     
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  26. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I might have said this earlier, but I would be SHOCKED if an undefeated Marshall team wasn't chosen to go to an Access Bowl. Every week the committee is asked about Marshall in which they give the same response. I just couldn't see them completely dicking us over...right? RIGHT? This is what I tell myself, haha.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It's really hard to say. The thing that Marshall has going for them is they'll face Rice which is a 6-3 team so if they get that win it will help in the committee's eyes, and then in the CUSA championship they'll face La Tech who could be 9-3 at that point and again, that would be a helpful win for Marshall.

    They need to play and beat WINNING opponents. To date the best opponents they've beaten are 5-4 Middle Tennessee and 5-5 Ohio. That's pretty pathetic.

    But in the next stretch of four games they will face a 6-3 Rice team, a 5-5 UAB team, a 4-5 Western Kentucky team, and a 7-3 Louisiana Tech team. I would project those teams to finish the year 7-5, 6-6, 6-6 and 9-3, respectively.

    So this upcoming month is going to be Marshall's best bet of getting more respect. The flipside to that is it's also the month that will see them have the highest chance of losing a football game, which would be devastating.

    It would be nice if Middle Tennessee gets hot and wins out to finish 8-4. An Ohio upset of Northern Illinois wouldn't hurt, either.

    Seeing how many THREE loss teams are in that Top 25 playoff ranking while an undefeated Marshall squad is left out of it...it's nerve-racking.

    East Carolina already was in that Top 25 once. At this point if they beat the likes of Cincinnati (5-3) and UCF (5-3) to claim a share of the American Athletics Conference Championship...who is to say the committee won't turn around and plug a two-loss ECU right back into the Top 25 and above Marshall?

    They could also decide that an 11-2 Boise State has proved more than a 13-0 Marshall as well.

    It would seem unfair in the absolute extreme but this committee seems really set in their ways.
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/11/13/7216365/marshall-record-projections-sec-acc

    Apparently the stat service PredictionMachine.com wanted to see what would happen if Marshall played Mississippi State's schedule. They ran 50,000 simulations and predicted that Marshall would have a 7-5 record.

    Ok, that sounds bad for Marshall.

    Except, not really. Prediction Machine has also taken a look at Florida State's schedule and determined that they would go 8-4 against Mississippi State's schedule. In fact, they simulated what Marshall would do if they had Florida State's schedule and found that Marshall would be the favorite in every game except at Louisville and at Miami-FL.

    And when they tested the two teams head-to-head, they found that Florida State only wins 55 percent of the time.

    Unfortunately for Marshall, I doubt the College Playoff Committee listens to PredictionMachine.com
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Here we go:

     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Here's a look at some of Marshall's outcomes relative to other bigger programs that played the same team.

    Marshall at Miami (OH): 42-27
    Miami (OH) at Michigan: 10-34
    Miami (OH) at Cincinnati: 24-31

    Ohio at Marshall: 44-14
    Ohio at Kentucky: 3-20

    Marshall at Akron: 48-17
    Akron at Penn State: 3-21
    Akron at Pittsburgh: 21-10

    Marshall at Old Dominion: 56-14
    Old Dominion at NC State: 34-46
    Old Dominion at Vanderbilt: 28-42

    Middle Tennessee at Marshall: 49-24
    Middle Tennessee at Minnesota: 24-35
    Middle Tennessee at BYU: 7-27

    Marshall at Florida International: 45-13
    Pittsburgh at Florida International: 42-25
    Louisville at Florida International: 34-3

    Florida Atlantic at Marshall: 35-16
    Florida Atlantic at Nebraska: 7-55
    Florida Atlantic at Alabama: 0-41

    Marshall at Southern Miss: 63-17
    Southern Miss at Mississippi State: 0-49
    Southern Miss at Alabama: 12-52

    So let's say home field is worth 3 points as usual. Here are some indirect head-to-head matchups on NEUTRAL fields accoridng to the above data:

    Marshall vs Michigan: 18-21 L
    Marshall vs Cincinnati: 18-4 W
    Marshall vs Kentucky: 27-14 W
    Marshall vs Penn State: 34-15 W
    Marshall vs Pittsburgh: 48-0 W
    Marshall vs NC State: 39-9 W
    Marshall vs Vanderbilt: 39-11 W
    Marshall vs Minnesota: 22-8 W
    Marshall vs BYU: 22-17 W
    Marshall vs Pittsburgh: 35-10 W
    Marshall vs Louisville: 35-34 W
    Marshall vs Nebraska: 16-45 L
    Marshall vs Alabama: 16-38 L
    Marshall vs Mississippi State: 49-46 W
    Marshall vs Alabama: 49-37 W

    Total Record: 12-3
     
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  31. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    What this is essentially saying is:

    Yes, it's true that Marshall has not played any Power 5 schools. But they have played many teams that played Power 5 schools, and adjusting for homefield advantage, 81% of the time Marshall beat those schools by more than the Power 5 school did.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    And if people think the whole homefield adjustment thing is confusing things, here are the results with no adjustment:

    Marshall vs Michigan: 15-24 L
    Marshall vs Cincinnati: 15-7 W
    Marshall vs Kentucky: 30-17 W
    Marshall vs Penn State: 31-18 W
    Marshall vs Pittsburgh: 42-0 W
    Marshall vs NC State: 42-12 W
    Marshall vs Vanderbilt: 42-14 W
    Marshall vs Minnesota: 25-11 W
    Marshall vs BYU: 25-20 W
    Marshall vs Pittsburgh: 32-17 W
    Marshall vs Louisville: 32-31 W
    Marshall vs Nebraska: 19-48 L
    Marshall vs Alabama: 19-41 L
    Marshall vs Mississippi State: 46-49 L
    Marshall vs Alabama: 46-40 W

    Total Record: 11-4
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Mississippi State, Alabama, Nebraska and Minnesota are Top 25 schools.

    In games versus same opponents, Marshall outscored the same opponent by more than the other school 3 out of 5 times. If you don't adjust for homefield it's 2 out of 5 times.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Good news for Marshall fans. Tonight's loss to Cincinnati should basically eliminate East Carolina from the conversation on the Group of Five access bowl bid.

    I guess this week the College Football Playoff Committee actually fessed up that they have their eye on five teams for the G5 bowl bid, but refused to put the teams in order. The teams were Marshall, Boise State, East Carolina, Colorado State and Northern Illinois.

    Having one of those five eliminated can only help. Thinking about it today I actually got a little worried that they'd put ECU back in the lead even with two losses. They'd already shown enough favor toward them to rank them within their Top 25.
     
  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Brian Baldinger just made a stunning revelation about the Marshall offense.

    The Marshall receivers are coached never to be part of the blocking scheme. They run patterns every single play. The way thir offense works, they give Rakeem Cato three options every single play. He can drop back and pass, he can hand off to the back, or he can keep the ball and run it.

    So the play calling is always just him. Similar to Lazor's offense really.
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Might be the worst deep ball I've ever seen from Cato just now, gets easily picked off.

    One thing I've noticed probably the last three weeks is Cato making an emphasis on driving the football. I think he's looking to impress the scouts. What has impressed me about it is he's succeeding at driving the football to really pretty incredible velocities, he's not losing any accuracy generally speaking, and it just comes off very Aaron Rodgers-ish.

    One of those throws I highlighted earlier, we're talking a 38 yard throw at 52 mph average velocity which is just absurd. When throwing that ball many quarterbacks will just naturally put a little more air under the ball to make sure it gets there, and the ball will therefore come out at lower average velocity (45 mph or so). If you're gonna throw one as fast as Cato did you have to consciously make the choice to attempt it. It's not just one of those things where you throw it as hard as you can and then act surprised at whatever the result is. You make a conscious choice that you're gonna drive it, or you're just gonna get it there.

    So anyway, to the point. On this deep throw, it was a REAL deep attempt, and Cato foolishly tried to drive the thing with low arc. As a result it was a severe under throw. Picked off. That isn't something that qualifies so much as evidence that he's not a good thrower of the football. Rather, it's a bad DECISION. That's the point I'm making.
     
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  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Turned out to be one minor blemish on one hell of a day for Cato. Yikes.

    Gotta reiterate what Baldinger said. The offensive coordinator Bill Legg said that every play call has three components to it: a run component, a pass component, and a Rakeem component. It's all on Rakeem to decide what is going to happen. The receivers run their routes no matter what.
     
  38. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Breaking Pennington's records does help the guy. Pennington was a highly regarded player and Cato doesn't have Randy Moss to throw to.
     
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  39. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

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    Was really impressed when I heard this watching the game as well. Everything rides on his shoulders - just adds how impressive it is when you see this offense put up the prolific numbers they have been. What a performance by him today aside from the one long INT closing the half. I can't remember when it was, but there was one play in the game where he was scrambling to his left, had room to run on the outside, and yet somehow found his receiver continuing his route for a bigger gain on a throw across his body.

    There was also another play where he was on the move and was telling his receiver to go deep again, hit him perfectly. Dude just makes magic happen.

    Really, that whole offense is awesome. Devon Johnson is a BEAST.
     
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  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    This is why I've become such a big Marshall fan this year. They're just so damn fun to watch. It's like you're watching something uncommon and special come together. Any team that can be this consistent and look to go undefeated, regardless of the level of competition, it's special and it's fun to watch. You don't have to be a fan of the laundry to really get caught up in it.

    Although I do have to say that when they started the "WE ARE! MARSHALL!" chant toward the end of the 3rd quarter, it was so loud and distinct that it gave me goosebumps a little. I love seeing fans that into the game. Same happens to me when I go to a game at like Florida or someplace like that and they start stomping around to where you can feel the entire stadium shake. Unfortunately you never get that with a South Florida game.

    Cato really flashed a lot of things in the game. The pass you're talking about was vintage for him. He's notorious for scrambling, keeping his eyes up and then passing to the open man instead of running it. He's just confident in his throwing, believes he can do anything he wants with a football. The danger in that is what we've seen from Tannehill a few times where he could've WALKED for the 1st down but instead tries this low percentage pass. But Cato has really good situational awareness so I don't think that happens to him as often as you'd think.

    One of the things he flashed in the game was how much he avoids contact. You really have to look and slow the game down to get a great appreciation for how quickly he is seeing and recognizing threats, but he's got his head on a swivel and as soon as he recognizes that he's not going to be able to burn an oncoming defender (which is very fast for him), he just goes straight to the ground. If it's not 3rd down, he doesn't need to sacrifice his body.

    The man has not missed a single game in his college career despite being an athletic, scrambling, 150 to 190 pounder...and that is not a coincidence.
     
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