It's an absolute CRAP statistic unless it is properly adjusted for route depth. Borderline useless. One of the worst statistics I see commonly cited.
In order to make his 7.3 YPA look good you're citing a bunch of crappy performances, even digging back into historical data. Definition of data mining. If you want RELEVANT facts, let's lay them out on the table. Jarvis Landry's 7.3 YPA ranks 71st out of 100 wide receivers with at least 20 targets this season. An interesting claim. Unfortunately not a true one. Not yet, anyway. Let's focus on the 100 wide receivers with 30 or more routes having been run FROM THE SLOT. Only counting slot routes. Even your precious catch rate statictic (terrible statistic) only ranks Jarvis Landry #31 out of 100. Hardly what I would call, "one of the best (slot receivers) in the game". He ranks #55 of 100 SLOT receivers in yards per target from the SLOT.
Yards are yards. Honestly it doesn't matter if its 7 yards and tackled or a screen and a 7 yard run. They count the same. However if your point is you want him to be more explosive and make bigger plays. .I agree. I actually think he would be a decent downfield threat due to his ball skills in 1-1 matchups. To me the bottom line is he's creating positive plays. Yes I'd rather have Watkins or Evans if we are talking about a guy to play the #1 spot. However I can see Landry filling our slot role for a long time. Also FWIW Landry is a guy who's mental game is going to help him improve more than his physical game. When he's had some time in the NFL I can see him being a guy who finds the open spot, sits down and gives the defense fits. Then again I loved him before the draft and I know you didn't. Time will tell.
By this logic, Daniel Thomas is a good tailback because even though he consistently only gets 3.6 yards per carry, "yards are yards".
I don't find it worthless. I've seen it used, on its own, to attack WRs (notably Chris Chambers a few years back) and if then, I agree, it's useless in that purpose. But it's a helpful, but not determinative, statistic. If there is a disconnect between route depth and catch percentage it merits further investigation. A Brandon Marshall should always have a higher catch % then say, Mike Wallace because of how they're used. Brandin Cooks who is always catching near the LOS is even higher. I don't use the stat to judge the WR but a possible disconnect between the WR and QB may be there. Drops + Catch percentage can tell you a little about chemistry between a QB and WR.
It can only be used as a supplemental data point that gives context to another statistic. But that's not what I'm referring to. People rank receivers based on catch percentage. They might as well be ranking them based on shoe size.
That's not an accurate restatement of what he was saying. That is really comparing "apples to oranges." It's more like comparing a back like Vereen, who does damage with receiving yards, and a back like Miller who does more running the ball. Yards are yards, no matter how you get them. However, a paltry 3.6 is a terrible average (which I know we agree on) for yards per carry.
Isnt that impacted based on how he is being used and the offense he is in? A RB's YPC is impacted the OL, sure. But YPC is still a pretty decent evaluation tool on individual ability/performance. I find YPA a little harder to evaluate a WR on. If he's mainly being asked to run drag routes and such, and not vertical routes, his YPA is going to be low... and that has nothing to do with his ability. Unless, the implication is that he isn't being asked to run those routes b/c hes incapable of running them well?
That's how I treat it. Almost every stat can be skewed and needs context. But I agree, some more than others.
Here, I agree. When I was scouting him before the draft, the most prophetic piece of info was an LSU fan telling me, "Every one of his catches is either a touchdown, a first down, or a play that makes you say 'wow'." Ultimately, he needs to produce more touchdowns if he wants to legitimately be considered amongst the best in the class. (I'm actually surprised he hasn't, but I think our horrid redzone performances have a lot to do with it.) We haven't really seen the highlight-reel catches either, but that may mostly be revealing how inaccurate Mettenberger really was. But yes, two TDs aren't going to get anybody's attention. However, he is making big plays. If a lot of his passes put the ball in his hands near the LOS and dare him to make something happen, then his results are extra spectacular. He is scoring a touchdown or gaining the first down on 59.5% of his receptions. That's better than Welker (57.7% 14fd 1td), Edelman (55.6% 28fd 2td), Austin (35.5% 6fd 0td), and even the other highly-touted slot from this class, Brandin Cooks (50% 29fd 3td). This is an area where he is picking up right where he left off in college. (I lost the link, but I believe his first down rate in college was #1 last year; if anyone knows where to find it, please share.) Agree to disagree. I wish someone sit down with Lamar Miller and show him that accordingly to properly adjusted route depths, he needs to stop dropping all those passes at the LOS. Comparing Jarvis to the few aforementioned similar receivers, he grades out favorably (I'd venture that a large scale "adjustment project" would reap similar results.) Tit-for-tat, the yards/target seems more useless, especially when not adjusting for route adjustment. 7.3 y/t, is good for a slot, and in the middle of the pack for all rookie WRs. The best rookie wideout in the game, Sammy Watkins, is averaging 8.03 y/t (42/77/617), and the best wideout in the NFL, Calvin Johnson (29/52/461), is averaging 8.86. Respectively compared to Landry's average, that is a difference of adding 3.85 and 8.1 yards per game. I question the end-all-be-all quality of a statistic where the difference between "all-world" and "really low" is an argument over five yards a game.
Comparing him to current Dolphins players and last year's slot receivers is not irrelevant, and neither is comparing him to Welker after someone specifically asked for the comparison. Edelman, I confess, was data mining. Link please? Football outsiders has Landry tied at third best with a 74% catch rate: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr Or are you saying that he ranks #31 in catch rate from routes out of the slot? If that's the case, then the non-slot routes he runs must be through the roof. That should make you happy, right? It shows the promise to become a more versatile receiver that can line up anywhere on the field, which sounds like it's what a lot folks preferred going into the draft. That's exciting!
No problem. Here you go: http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...TY-Darkhorse&p=2459188&viewfull=1#post2459188 The list of receivers with at least 20 targets who have a higher TOTAL catch rate than Jarvis Landry: Percy Harvin Chris Hogan Brandin Cooks Jeremy Ross Cole Beasley Steve Johnson Tavon Austin Donte Moncrief Yes it is correct that I was counting only slot work where his #31 out of 100 ranking in catch rate is uninteresting (even for a bad statistic such as catch rate). You are correct that his catch rate on the PERIMETER ONLY is 78.6%. However, his yards per attempt on the PERIMETER ONLY is 6.1. That ranks 77th of the 100 slot receivers. Essentially he has a high perimeter catch rate because nearly all of his perimeter work are wide receiver screens. That is an absolute true fact. And I don't see how anyone starts touting catch rate for a guy because he caught a wide receiver screen, which is such a high percentage pass that analysts regularly refer to them as extended hand-offs.
Lol that's just a link to your post; you are free to decline next time. (I enjoy a healthy debate, but that felt somewhat disrespectful.) And with those receivers, it's once again misleading. First, Harvin has the same 74% (as does E Sanders), and Moncrief (71%) and Ross (73%) actually have lower "catch rate" percentages. Tavon Austin (22 targets 77%), Beasley (21t 76%), and Hogan (21t 82%), all have less than half the amount of targets. (While two targets a game isn't enough to qualify for the analysis in my mind, it is to you, and hopefully folks can make there own conclusions.) Soooo, of the 75 WRs with 39+ targets, he ranks third-best, and of the 102 WRs with 20+ targets, he ranks sixth-best. That's still awesome! There's no way I can view that as a negative. Plus, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt as a rookie; after getting accustomed to the pro game, he is averaging 83% (28/35) over the past six games. (Stats from: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr )
According to Pro Football Focus, the players I named all have higher catch percentages. I enjoy a good debate as well. But I also know when that debate is over. I linked my post because those were my statistics and rankings which I created based on raw numbers from Pro Football Focus, and you will not find them on a webpage. I provided the only link possible. I don't require a link to someone else saying the same thing I'm saying in order to legitimize my arguments. When I create original research it is original research and other people are free to quote me as their source.
Honestly it's a little disappointing that for a rookie wideout class as talented as this one, we ended up with a guy who's ceiling isn't even that high.
Mainstream media is starting to take notice. They had their Sammy Watkins packages ready to roll, but it was Jarvis Landry who was the best receiver on the field last night. In his first prime-time post-game interview, Landry's effervescent personality shone brightly, endearing him further to an audience far beyond the city of Miami. The world saw a football player, off and on the field. Updating the stats with last night's performance, he's still improving. Catching all five of the balls thrown his way, he's extended his streak of catching 34 of 40 targets over the last seven games, for an incredible 85 percent catch rate (78 percent overall). Whether you respect the stat or not, it's undeniable that the kid has an amazing pair of hands...and legs...and eyes....and heart. And his yards per target last night? 9.2 y/t. That should make even the most critical of fans happy. Actually, over the past seven games, he is averaging 8.16 yards/target. (BTW, that's better than Sammy Watkins over the same time period.) Even more importantly, he is making the plays. Of his five receptions, four went for first downs and one went for a touchdown. More importantly, he is now converting a first down or scoring a touchdown on 52% of targets! That's the definition of a playmaker. He showed once again the vision and tenacity to squeeze the most yards out of every situation. One of the post-show commentators mentioned, "I love how he fights for every yard", and of the fumble, "he fought too long in that one." After the fumble, which could have been a disaster, we saw the man's character. Just like when Tannehill missed the TD throw, they both came back hungrier than ever. Sure to form, he wasn't going to be denied his touchdown. Landry has now scored in three straight home games. Consistent, productive, and exciting. That's why he is becoming the Dolphins' number one wide receiver over the last seven weeks, leading the team in receptions over that period. He has three straight games with 5+ receptions. When Ryan Tannehill lists his playmakers after the game, there's a reason the first name he mentions is Jarvis Landry. Ryan knows, the fans know, and, after a quality performance on the national stage, the rest of the league is starting to take notice.
Is this what a winning football teams does to fans? I may be a fan of us losing then. Both of you grab a whiskey and enjoy Jarvis's 7 yards. Jeez.
Personally I dont care how he gets the yards. If it was really that easy teams would just throw WR screens every play or two to gain 6-10 yards.
Well another week, another + in the race...the bigger the games get the More his game doesn't shrivel..this is why lsu fans said they would take him over Odell, big games clutch moments.
Landry is a piece in a stellar WR corps. Sammy Watkins is a #1 already. They did a segment during that TNF game about all the rookie receivers that went in the first round. Then the got around to Landry who scored the TD that put the nail in the Bills coffin 10-15 minutes later.
I mean when DJ brings up that a bunch of these guys weren't available when Jarvis was picked, he has a great point. But I don't think people in this thread are trying to evaluate the pick relative to what was available. I think they're trying to say straight up that Jarvis Landry is not only the most impressive rookie receiver but one of the most impressive offensive rookies period. I mean, there was OROY talk a few pages ago. I think Mike Evans is showing us what it looks like to have a receiver who legitimately looks worthy of OROY talk.
That is true and fair enough. I just don't think its fair when some people still act like there is nothing good about his game. Hes a guy in my opinion who should have a role here for a good long time.
I understand Odell wasn't available, and I'm not saying we should have him rather than Jarvis. Jarvis looks like a nice pick exactly where he was at. But to say they'd rather have Landry over Odell, straight up, is a different topic! And I know DJ didn't say that, he's quoting other LSU fans that have (I remember that thread). I'm just asking if he agreed with them Odell is looking like a legit #1 WR. Landry a solid #2. Both are great values if they keep it up. I have AJ Green and Evans locked in my just started dynasty team. I'm very happy if Evans turns into a Vincent Jackson. The beauty of those two TD's yesterday was the fact that he wasn't even using his big body to catch contested TDs. He legitimately outran his defenders (although one may have been a LB? I'll have to re-watch) and caught them in stride. Beautiful. And Tampa's QBs are not what I'd call good.
He will have a role in Miami for a while, I think that's certain. And I think he brings good things to the table. But how valuable are those things and will we always kind of want more? We know he can't replace a Mike Wallace, even as disappointing at times as Wallace plays. Do we know Jarvis can replace a Brian Hartline though? I'm not so sure. We may find that when we try and get him to be anything but the slot guy, the number three guy, he's just not capable of giving us big plays. I don't just sit here and talk about yards per target for no reason. A receiver only averaging 7 or 7.5 yards per target is a problem because receivers are your bigger play guys when it comes to breaking down different positions' roles. I know people will naturally assume that slot receivers don't have as high a yards per target as perimeter guys but that's not necessarily the case. League-wide I've found the bias to be pretty small. Whether it's a slot getting yards after the catch or a perimeter running deeper routes, you need your receivers to make big plays that help you get down the field. I mean, Mike Evans is averaging 11.7 yards per target. The offense averages 11.7 yards every time they look in his direction. That's a dominant receiver. We're just not there yet with Jarvis Landry. Maybe we'll get there soon. Or maybe he'll never be more than Davone Bess incarnate (hopefully not crazy).
What's the rest of our WRs corps doing per target? I guess I can go look it up (just wondering if you have it handy). If it's a team wide thing, or a Jarvis thing.
I'd say his ceiling is higher than Bess. In my opinion if he becomes that guy that always converts those third and 5 or 6 yard plays he's plenty worth it. Especially if he adds the occasional big one. I guess we have to wait and see.
Orleans Darkwa - 10.3333333333 Knowshon Moreno - 8 Dion Sims - 7.9375 Jarvis Landry - 7.2727272727 Brian Hartline - 6.829787234 Mike Wallace - 6.7926829268 Rishard Matthews - 6.3076923077 Charles Clay - 5.9655172414 Brandon Gibson - 5.347826087 Lamar Miller - 4.75 Damian Williams - 1.2727272727
Jarvis and Mike Wallace are right with each other, though Wallace's would probably be much higher if not for the infamous deep ball disconnect. The rest are doing significantly worse. Last year Hartline averaged about 8.0 yards. Gibson and Matthews were in similar range to Jarvis. Wallace's yards per target was dismal a year ago.
The Mike Wallace number is not correct. He's more like 7.4 yards per target. And Charles Clay is 6.3. Dion Sims is 9.1. Dunno where you're getting your data...
NFL play by play data...I have Wallace with 557 yards on 82 targets. EDIT: ESPN has the same as me: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12601/mike-wallace So does Pro Football Reference: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2014.htm
please don't ask me that Jd..damn you.. That question came up many times in the draft forum when Landry was getting a lot of hype about being the most important cog on that team, and LSU fans, and mayock saying that Juice was the best receiver on the team, when I evaluated them both, I thought Odell was an absolute first round talent, and really liked his game, with Landry, I thought he would be productive at the next level, very clutch, and had intangibles that would raise his stock to a team.. fact of the matter is I had Odell as a first rounder and Jarvis as a Third rounder..I can honestly say from what I've seen, I under valued Juice, he's better athletically, his play speed is a difference maker, his demeanor contagious, and his hands are clutch..So he's made up ground in my eyes and now he's a dolphin so I'm in love with his ***. Odell is baaaaad dude man though...I saw a couple things yesterday that blew me away..I feel I was right on both evals, but I know I undervalued juice a bit. Odell has 63 yards more than jarvis while playing in 4 fewer games, same amount of TD's, about a 15 yards average, juice has about a 10 yard average.. Landry brings an element of toughness that I love, Odell has a flair about him that is very very cool..That dude looked at the camera, while on the field, and showed the world his hands..it was a bad *** moment that i haven't see somewhat cool execute in a long time. jarvis has got the juice on returns that i love and have been craving, he understands angles and gets not and south faster than any of the rookies not names sammy watkins. Odell can work down the field, has tremendous running skills, balance, speed, Jarvis works the bloodzone and has the potential to be the next great slot..Their both the read deal. like I said damn you for asking me that question when my heart is for Jarvis...damn you.
Pro Football Focus has the more reliable data because they weed out throwaways or balls where the quarterback is hit as he's thrown, whereas gamebooks commonly cite a ball as being thrown "to" a wide receiver that wasn't anywhere near it.
