Nothing wrong with liking both players. Odell is a bad dude though. Some say he has the talent to be the best WR in this draft, which is saying a lot. I'm sure Odell's numbers might be inflated a little (targets) with Cruz out. But when Cruz comes back next year, if his knee is good watchout for those two.
Thats fair. Though I would rather use objective data than rely on PFF to subjectively determine if a ball is a throwaway, etc.
There's nothing objective about the gamebook writer determining that a throwaway was "to" a certain player. It's a matter of whose subjective opinion you trust more.
I would think its the player that is physically closest to the point the ball crosses out-of-bounds. Either way I'll go with the ones not trying to sell their statistics.
IIRC throwaways tend to be attributed to those wide and deep. It's not hard to know when a ball is thrown away.
I'm saying PFF is in the business of selling their subjective ratings, and their proprietary statistics very well could be influenced by the need to validate those ratings. There is a difference between taking advice, and recording data. I trust Dow Jones to tell me what the DJIA is.
They have their methodologies up on the site. Pages of it, if I'm not mistaken. Nonetheless a methodology that excludes throwaways or balls that go to nobody in particular because the quarterback was hit as he was thrown, is a more accurate methodology than the NFL gamebook makers searching for the nearest receiver to attribute a target to even though it's plain that it wasn't targeted to anyone. This is not something I consider to be disputable, and so this is the last I'll say on the matter.
Not to be argumentative, but I have a completely different opinion. For example, PFF says they don't count any pass that is disrupted by the QB being hit. But why exactly shouldn't that count as a target? If a player relies on deeper routes, for example, that is going to lend itself to the QB being hit at a higher-rate, no?
The one thing that always came out on his college tape and I would always put in my notes was that the farther away jarvis landry is from the LOS the least effective his skill set is, but The kid finds ways to overcome, I just think being the best slot guy in football should be the goal.
Because it has absolutely nothing to do with the WR and its a metric for WRs? It doesn't give you any relevant info. It just tells you the line can't protect. Just my two cents. Get what you're saying just don't agree.
Of the wide receivers in the NFL with at least 20 catches on the year, only Tavon Austin (2.90) and Percy Harvin (1.18) average catching the ball closer to the line of scrimmage than Jarvis Landry (2.98). In fact there's a significant leap in that stat from Landry to the next guy, Wes Welker, who averages catching the football 4.43 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Landry's average "air yards" is over two whole standard deviations below the mean for the position.
I view it as unsustainable. The Dolphins will have to start having him catch the football further off the line of scrimmage. He will either do fine with that, or he will not. But throwing the football to a wide receiver more than 5 times per game at an average distance off the line of scrimmage of only 3 yards is not sustainable.
I disagree. I think the reason you say it's not impacting his game is you're over-estimating his impact on the game. At only 7.4 yards per target with 3 touchdowns in 10 games, he's not impacting the game as much as many in this thread seem to be implying. The Dolphins will need to start having him catch the ball further off the line of scrimmage as they're going to get diminishing returns if they keep trying to work him so close to the line so often. The last two games for example he's averaged only 6.9 yards per target.
If he can continue to break tackles and score I won't mind if they throw him screens all the time. The better question is, "Is Lazor / scheme holding back what he is capable of?" I'd like to see him downfield more. I love his energy, demeanor and desire. Whether that can be translated in to production at a higher level is yet to be know, but I think we can all agree that those intangibles can factor in to his future role with the team.
I see what your saying and it coorelates into my conclusions about him when he was coming out, farther away, the more the limitations will get exposed however, he's proven to be better than what I expected athletically, so I don't know if my eyes were lying to me on this one.
Sounds reasonable. Beyond statistics... what are you seeing on tape regarding his ability? From what you are seeing, and with your projection capability (draft evaluations, etc)... do you think he's capable of producing when asked to catch the ball further down field? Have you seen anything on film to be able to project him playing on the outside? As far as this thread is concerned... yes, the concept is a little ridiculous of him actually being the OROY. However, aside from that... what are your thoughts on him as a WR moving forward?
Plus Odell has Eli who can get him the ball deep...now I am not giving props to Eli..he is an int.machine for some reason and I like Tanny much better, I am just giving an example of why Odell has more yards in 4 Fewer games and I like Odell alot too and wish we could have drafted both for Tanny.
Well I will say that Jarvis had no problem catching the ball deep at LSU and just finds ways to get open. Honestly they are of a different skill set entirely (which I know you and DJ know) and they always complimented each other very well.Quite frankly, I wish we had BOTH of them.
And this I don't think is because Jarvis cannot get deeper..I think part of it is the offense we run and we seem to always have to keep the pass 30 yards or closer to have any success. This is our QB's next area to improve upon and then he will definately be near top 5.
I think you could absolutely be correct about the further away from the LOS you get him, the less interesting he is...but in fairness to Jarvis, we don't know yet. They're not asking him to work off the line of scrimmage that much. He's only been thrown the football 10+ yards upfield 9 times and caught 3 of them for 40 yards. That's not enough of a sample to know anything yet. It's something we have to find out. But until we do I still think it premature to start talking about Jarvis Landry as a starter quality receiver.
The Dolphins are dead LAST in yards-at-the-catch as a whole team at 4.35 yards/catch. With that the case, it seems like Jarvis Landry is a perfect match for us because of his elite skill at gaining yards after the catch. With 257 YAC, his 4.76 YAC/target is second in the NFL of wide receivers (G. Tate, 4.81). His 6.12 YAC/catch is fourth (D. Thomas, D. Jackson, and G. Tate). And he's done it without the luxury of huge or deep passes. (If you question his ability to run longer routes, don't worry. Last year at LSU, 68% of his completions came beyond six yards; 38% of completions were 11+ yards down the field. He caught the ball an average of 9.91 yards from the LOS. I'm kind of surprised how intensively Lazor uses him on short routes. Last year, 36% of his routes were In/out and another 33% Post/corners. He is an excellent intermediate receiver, and I was excited to see him exploiting the seam this year. When we will see this? I don't know, but I'm not going to ding Landry for it.) Im inclined to compare Jarvis to Brandin Cooks, who would probably be used in the same way in our offense. Cooks is averaging 3.01 YAC/catch, which is surprisingly low given his skill set - or is it? His 5.24 last year was amongst the lowest of the WRs highly-drafted. (Via sportingcharts and ESPN)
I think he looks like a typical slot receiver or a guy whose ceiling is probably a Doug Baldwin, Davone Bess or someone like that. I think what we're hoping is that he can be the next Wes Welker, but if I had a nickel every time someone thought they had found "the next Wes Welker"... I've been very pleasantly surprised that his RAC and tackle-breaking abilities have been much better than what I saw in college. It's not that he never showed that stuff, it's that it wasn't consistent at all, not nearly as consistent as some said. He's starting to be consistent with that ability in the NFL and that's a very pleasant surprise for me. But outside of that, I haven't seen much more ability to get open against tight man coverage than I saw in college. I certainly haven't seen more downfield abilities than in college. I haven't seen more speed than in college. I've seen more return abilities than I imagined, but then he's also fumbling those as you might fear with a guy that doesn't have much experience on returns.
He definately is not OROY range..never was as this was the deepest WR class that I have seen in a long time but Jarvis does have #2 capabilities IMHO as I watched him play alot of college ball and just like we see now on KO returns he was deceptively fast and caught several deep balls incollege.
When Ryan Tannehill has thrown the football to Jarvis Landry 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage he has the following stats: 3 of 9 for 40 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT.
It has a lot to do with the WR. If you target a WR 30 yards from the LOS, thats going to result in more sacks than targeting a WR 10 yards from the LOS, all things being equal. That needs to be accounted for.
It biases deep WRs, but fairly so IMO. You're using this data to identify efficiency as well as opportunity cost. If a WR requires the QB to hold the ball longer, then that is a factor that needs to be included in the evaluation.
Some folks seem to also be underestimating his impact. Just looking at those last two games, he leads the team with six first down receptions. If we are arbitrarily picking sample sizes of the previous games: at one, he averaged 9.2 yards/target and 100% first down/touchdown rate on his catches; at two, we have to realize these impact plays came against two of the best defenses in football; at seven, he is earning 8.1 yards/target, which is respectable considering how close to the LOS they are designing his routes.
We are not underestimating his impact, but some overstate his impact. For the record, I absolutely love Landry. I love his intensity and his contribution to our victories. The kid has done well at the slot position where he faces linebackers, the number three corner, safeties, and occasionally the number two corner. If you force him to be the number one receiver after removing Wallace and Hartline from the field, it is likely his numbers would go down. Context is very, very important when having these discussions.
Yall can argue all day long. Doesn't change the fact he's a baller. Some are just slower to come to this conclusion then others..
he is improving. During the first three games he looked like someone who shouldn't be on the field, now he is looking like an upgrade to Gibson.
Has he struggled with gaining seperation in tight man coverage? Or with getting down field? Or is it a matter of not seeing it b/c he hasn't faced tight man coverage being in the slot and not being asked to go downfield?
